Hits and Misses: How Successful Was GM John Butler In The Draft? HINT: Pretty Darn Good

[BuffaloRush]

 

After a short break - I am back.  It's one of the most talked about threads on the board - Hits and Misses.   This thread will analyze for Bills GM John Butler.  A few reminders about this thread:

 

* While this is very subjective, I am defining a "hit" as any player that reasonably performed at or above his draft status.  As an example, a player like Paul Pozlusny becoming a solid starting LB as a 2nd round pick.  A "miss" is the opposite - a player who performed under or well under their draft status. 

 

* If you draft a player in the first round and they are a marginal starter, I am defining that as a miss.  

 

* Also, if a player doesn't have a great career for the Bills, but then has a better career on another team that is not a miss in my opinion.  We are dealing strictly on what the draft selections brought to the table for the Bills - not another team.  

 

Let's now discuss GM John Butler who alongside with Polian is likely the most successful (and perhaps the only successful) GM in Bills history.  How did Butler do in the draft? Take a second and read below.  But before you do - here's my take on the success of other GM's

 

1. Russ Brandon: 28%

2. Marv Levy: 25%

3. Buddy Nix: 25%

4. Bill Polian: 23%

 

Now there's a lot of drafts JB ran, so I'm going to keep the comments brief until the end.

 

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
1992	1	John Fina	27	T	2002	0	0	8	50	155						1	-2	0	1	1	1			Arizona
1992	2	James Patton	55	NT	1994	0	0	0	1	13														Texas
1992	3	Keith Goganious	83	LB	1996	0	0	2	13	74												2	1.0	Penn St.
1992	4	Frank Kmet	111	DE		0	0	0																Purdue
1992	5	Matt Darby	139	DB	1997	0	0	3	18	81												8		UCLA
1992	6	Nate Turner	167	TE	1995	0	0	0	0	28						13	40	0	1	26	1			Nebraska
1992	7	Kurt Schulz	195	DB	2001	0	0	6	43	129												30		East. Washington
1992	8	Leonard Humphries	223	DB	1994	0	0	0	1	13												1		Penn St.
1992	9	Chris Walsh	251	WR	2002	0	0	0	7	139	0	1	0	0	0				67	719	4			Stanford
1992	10	Barry Rose	279	WR	1993	0	0	0	0	3														Wisc-Stevens Point
1992	11	Vince Marrow	307	TE	1994	0	0	0	0	10									5	44	0			Toledo
1992	12	Matt Rodgers	335	QB		0	0	0																Iowa

 

 

1992 Draft

This was JB's first attempt at running a draft as GM, and he did ok.  John Fina was never an All-Pro but was a competent LT who ended up starting nearly 10 seasons and remained injury free.  Darby was a fringe starter for a few years and Kurt Schultz was a solid select.  Of course, James Patton and Keith Goganious didn't pan out, but still not bad.

 

Hits: 3

Misses: 9

Success: 33%

 

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
1993	1	Thomas Smith	28	DB	2001	0	0	7	43	137												6		North Carolina
1993	2	John Parrella	55	DT	2004	0	0	6	46	172													26.5	Nebraska
1993	4	Russell Copeland	111	WR	1998	0	0	1	13	72						2	-8	0	103	1460	2			Memphis
1993	5	Mike Devlin	136	C	1999	0	0	2	15	101														Iowa
1993	5	Sebastian Savage	139	DB	1995	0	0	0	0	3														North Carolina St.
1993	6	Corbin Lacina	167	G	2003	0	0	6	38	129														Augustana (SD)
1993	7	Willie Harris	195	WR		0	0	0																Mississippi St.
1993	8	Chris Luneberg	223	T		0	0	0																West Chester

 

1993 Draft

A bit shaky.  He hit on his first pick with Thomas Smith who performed well-enough for a late 1st round pick.  Though he was never a star.  Mid to late picks like Russell Copeland or Corbin Lacina turned out to be short-term starters but were good value for their draft status.  John Parrella had a solid career for San Diego but he did nothing with the Blls.  Miss.

 

Hits: 3

Misses: 5

Success 38%

 

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
1994	1	Jeff Burris	27	DB	2003	0	0	9	41	144												19	5.0	Notre Dame
1994	2	Bucky Brooks	48	DB	1998	0	0	0	1	32									0	0	0			North Carolina
1994	2	Lonnie Johnson	61	TE	1999	0	0	4	13	88						1	6	0	163	1587	6			Florida St.
1994	2	Sam Rogers	64	LB	2003	0	0	6	41	133												2	30.0	Colorado
1994	3	Marlo Perry	81	LB	1999	0	0	1	11	76												2	1.5	Jackson St.
1994	3	Corey Louchiey	98	T	1997	0	0	0	8	45									1	0	0			South Carolina
1994	4	Sean Crocker	130	DB		0	0	0																North Carolina
1994	5	A.J. Ofodile	158	TE	1999	0	0	0	0	24									4	25	0			Missouri
1994	6	Anthony Abrams	188	DE		0	0	0
1994	6	Kevin Knox	192	WR	1994	0	0	0	0	2														Florida St.
1994	7	Filmel Johnson	221	DB	1995	0	0	0	0	2														Illinois

 

1994 Draft

The good news is that Butler hit toward the top of the draft.  The bad news is he's attached to one of the worst draft picks in Bills history - Bucky Brooks.  The WR who caught 0 passes.  Burris, like Thomas Smith, was a competent starter.  Ditto for Sam Rogers.  Lonnie Johnson was never a star but his numbers are way better than I remember.   Perry stuck on the team for 6 season and was a great fringe starter and ST player.

 

Hits: 4

Misses: 7

Legendary Misses: 1

Success: 36%

 

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
1995	1	Ruben Brown	14	G	2007	0	9	13	80	181									1	-6	0			Pittsburgh
1995	2	Todd Collins	45	QB	2010	0	0	1	11	50	391	701	4547	22	24	83	152	0						Michigan
1995	3	Marlon Kerner	76	DB	1998	0	0	0	7	43												3	1.0	Ohio St.
1995	3	Damien Covington	96	LB	1997	0	0	1	6	30												1	0.5	North Carolina St.
1995	4	Ken Irvin	109	DB	2005	0	0	3	32	147												10	2.0	Memphis
1995	4	Justin Armour	113	WR	1999	0	0	1	7	39	0	1	0	0	0	4	-5	0	64	861	7			Stanford
1995	4	Tony Cline	131	TE	1999	0	0	1	2	52									32	255	1			Stanford
1995	5	John Holecek	144	LB	2002	0	0	3	27	81												2	3.5	Illinois
1995	6	Shannon Clavelle	185	DE	1997	0	0	0	1	16													0.5	Colorado
1995	7	Tom Nutten	221	G	2005	0	0	4	37	78														West. Michigan
1995	7	Darick Holmes	244	RB	1999	0	0	0	16	60						478	1769	11	73	610	1			Portland St.

 

1995 Draft

 

Butler hit big with Rueben Brown.  He whiffed big time on drafting Kelly's successor but did have some very good late round success.  

 

Hits: 4

Misses: 7

Success: 36%

 

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
1996	1	Eric Moulds	24	WR	2007	0	3	11	76	186						29	163	0	764	9995	49			Mississippi St.
1996	2	Gabe Northern	53	LB	2000	0	0	2	19	73												1	10.5	LSU
1996	3	Matt Stevens	87	DB	2003	0	0	2	24	108												13	1.0	Appalachian St.
1996	4	Sean Moran	120	LB	2003	0	0	0	12	120												2	10.5	Colorado St.
1996	5	Raymond Jackson	156	DB	2001	0	0	0	5	73									0	0	0	6		Colorado St.
1996	6	Leon Neal	196	RB	1997	0	0	0	0	1														Washington
1996	6	Dusty Zeigler	202	C	2002	0	0	5	34	80														Notre Dame
1996	7	Dan Brandenburg	237	LB	1999	0	0	0	3	42														Indiana St.
1996	7	Jay Riemersma	244	TE	2004	0	0	3	19	112									221	2524	23			Michigan
1996	7	Eric Smedley	249	DB	1999	0	0	0	3	42													2.0

 

1996 Draft

 

Now we are talking - Some great picks and starters both at the top and bottom.  Butler's best draft

 

Hits: 6

Misses: 4

Success: 60%

 

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
1997	1	Antowain Smith	23	RB	2005	0	0	4	49	131						1784	6881	54	136	982	3			Houston
1997	2	Marcellus Wiley	52	DE	2006	0	1	5	43	147												2	44.0	Columbia
1997	4	Jamie Nails	120	G	2003	0	0	3	26	78														Florida A&M
1997	5	Sean Woodson	153	DB		0	0	0																Jackson St.
1997	6	Marcus Spriggs	185	T	2003	0	0	0	11	49														Houston
1997	7	Pat Fitzgerald	226	TE		0	0	0																Texas

 

1997 Draft

Not many picks here but he did hit big with Marcellus Wiley and had a fews borderline hit with fringe starters like late round picks Jamie Nails and Marcus Spriggs. Antowain Smith was a decent RB but I will argue he did not warrant a first round pick.

 

Hits 3

Misses 3

Success: 50%

 

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
1998	2	Sam Cowart	39	LB	2005	0	1	5	44	100												4	12.5	Florida St.
1998	3	Robert Hicks	68	T	2000	0	0	1	13	37						1	-2	0	1	-6	0			Mississippi St.
1998	5	Jonathan Linton	131	RB	2000	0	0	0	9	44						288	1002	6	33	246	2			North Carolina
1998	6	Fred Coleman	160	WR	2002	0	0	0	1	9									2	50	0			Washington
1998	7	Victor Allotey	198	G		0	0	0																Indiana
1998	7	Kamil Loud	238	WR	1999	0	0	0	1	12									6	66	0			Cal Poly-San Luis Obisp

 

1998 Draft

No first round pick but Butler had a lot of success with his first few selections.  Hicks and Linton proved to be solid contributors and part-time starters for mid-round picks

 

Hits 3

Misses 3

Success: 50%

 

 

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
1999	1	Antoine Winfield	23	DB	2012	0	3	11	63	191												27	7.5	Ohio St.
1999	2	Peerless Price	53	WR	2007	0	0	6	43	123	1	1	25	0	0	23	173	0	403	5281	31			Tennessee
1999	3	Shawn Bryson	86	RB	2006	0	0	1	20	91						528	2144	6	185	1383	3			Tennessee
1999	4	Keith Newman	119	LB	2006	0	0	5	28	102												2	23.0	North Carolina
1999	4	Bobby Collins	122	TE	2001	0	0	0	2	30									16	199	2			North Alabama
1999	5	Jay Foreman	156	LB	2006	0	0	4	29	84													4.5	Nebraska
1999	6	Armon Hatcher	194	DB	2000	0	0	0	0	4														Oregon St.
1999	7	Sheldon Jackson	230	TE	2001	0	0	0	0	45									10	71	2			Nebraska
1999	7	Bryce Fisher	248	DE	2007	0	0	3	26	91													26.5	Air Force

 

1999 Draft

Another stellar draft for Butler picking up a solid CB in Antoine Winfield and a breakout WR in Peerless Price.  He also nabbed two decent starting LB's in the middle of the draft.  Great draft.

 

Hits 4

Misses 5

Success: 44%

 

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2000	1	Erik Flowers	26	DE	2004	0	0	0	6	58												1	5.0	Arizona St.
2000	2	Travares Tillman	58	DB	2007	0	0	1	13	74												4		Georgia Tech
2000	3	Corey Moore	89	LB	2001	0	0	0	2	10													1.0	Virginia Tech
2000	4	Avion Black	121	WR	2002	0	0	0	2	27									14	142	0			Tennessee St.
2000	5	Sammy Morris	156	RB	2011	0	0	1	28	144	0	0	0	0	0	736	3053	26	166	1258	1			Texas Tech
2000	6	Leif Larsen	194	DT	2001	0	0	0	3	16													2.0	Texas-El Paso
2000	7	Drew Haddad	233	WR	2004	0	0	0	0	2									1	11	0			Buffalo
2000	7	DaShon Polk	251	LB	2006	0	0	1	10	95													4.5	Arizona

 

2000

Ugh terrible draft.  Butler does the rare feat and drafts a class with ZERO draft picks.  This was a flat out terrible draft.

 

Hits 0

Misses 8

Success 0%

 

Overall Synopsis:

Hits 30

Misses 48

Success: 38%

30/78

 

John Butler proved to be very good in the draft.  While he does have a few legendary misses on his record (Bucky Brooks, Eric Flowes, Todd Collins), he always drafted fairly well in the early round and found great value in the mid to late rounds.  

 

So far John Butler is the clear favorite over other Buffalo GM's when it comes to the draft.  We will see if Tom Donahoe or Doug Whaley have a higher percentage:

 

1. John Butler - 38%

2. Russ Brandon: 28%

3. Marv Levy: 25%

4. Buddy Nix: 25%

5. Bill Polian: 23%

Edited April 10, 2018 by BuffaloRush

[DrDawkinstein]

I dont know that this shows JB had an eye for talent, as much as it shows how much the old stars helped the young players look good.

 

You have guys like Sean Moran, Matt Stevens and Lonnie Johnson as "hits". But they were brought into some of the most stacked teams in Bills history.

 

Then look at how the players in Butler's 2000 draft fared, after we already moved all the great, old talent off the team.

 

He hit on most of his 1st round picks, and then it's a grab-bag from there. A lot of your "hits" are arguable.

 

Bottom line: Not impressed.

[CuddyDark]

Sammy Morris was a good player, just not for the Bills. Also you screwed up 1997, there was only 6 picks.

[John from Riverside]

It is a shame about Covington and Kerner out of that 95 draft......those guys were beasts who had their careers ended early due to injury.

[prissythecat]

I still don't get why we are insisting that Russ Brandon drafted players?

[BuffaloRush]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

I dont know that this shows JB had an eye for talent, as much as it shows how much the old stars helped the young players look good.

 

You have guys like Sean Moran, Matt Stevens and Lonnie Johnson as "hits". But they were brought into some of the most stacked teams in Bills history.

 

Then look at how the players in Butler's 2000 draft fared, after we already moved all the great, old talent off the team.

 

He hit on most of his 1st round picks, and then it's a grab-bag from there. A lot of your "hits" are arguable.

 

Bottom line: Not impressed.

 

You are crazy....here's the deal.  You have an argument about Moran and Stevens.  Bottom line is that Stevens started 11 games during his season with the team and played well.  Moran was marginal at best but he did start occassionally with the team and provided depth.

 

I will agree, I thought Lonnie was a bad pick due to his 2nd draft status but look at his numbers.  His stats would put him in the middle of the league for starting TE's.  

 

					Games		Receiving									Rushing
Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	Lng	R/G	Y/G	Ctch%	Rush	Yds	TD	Lng	Y/A	Y/G	A/G	YScm	RRTD	Fmb	AV
1994	23	BUF	te	84	10	1	4	3	42	14.0	0	21	0.3	4.2	75.0%								42	0	0	0
1995	24	BUF	TE	84	16	16	81	49	504	10.3	1	52	3.1	31.5	60.5%								504	1	0	5
1996	25	BUF	TE	84	16	15	79	46	457	9.9	0	33	2.9	28.6	58.2%								457	0	1	3
1997	26	BUF	TE	84	16	16	63	41	340	8.3	2	62	2.6	21.3	65.1%	1	6	0	6	6.0	0.4	0.1	346	2	2	3
1998	27	BUF	TE	84	16	16	22	14	146	10.4	2	27	0.9	9.1	63.6%								146	2	1

 

Still lets say those three players are changed to misses.  Butler still had a lot of good draft picks.

3 minutes ago, prissythecat said:

I still don't get why we are insisting that Russ Brandon drafted players?

 

Because he was the GM in title

[Seanbillsfan2206]

4 minutes ago, prissythecat said:

I still don't get why we are insisting that Russ Brandon drafted players?

Don’t let facts get in the way of a good story

[rodneykm]

Its like a walk down memory lane! Thanks for putting this kind of stuff together. I really enjoy reading them. 

[BuffaloRush]

Just now, rodneykm said:

Its like a walk down memory lane! Thanks for putting this kind of stuff together. I really enjoy reading them. 

 

It is so nice to hear that.  I get a lot of complaints from members who want to defend former GM's.  I just call it like I see it, and I'm glad to know that you like these reviews.

3 minutes ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

Don’t let facts get in the way of a good story

 

FACT:  Russ Brandon was the acting GM during the 2008 and 2009 NFL Draft.

Anything else is strictly rumor and innuendo.  Prove me otherwise with actual primary source documents

[prissythecat]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

You are crazy....here's the deal.  You have an argument about Moran and Stevens.  Bottom line is that Stevens started 11 games during his season with the team and played well.  Moran was marginal at best but he did start occassionally with the team and provided depth.

 

I will agree, I thought Lonnie was a bad pick due to his 2nd draft status but look at his numbers.  His stats would put him in the middle of the league for starting TE's.  

 

					Games		Receiving									Rushing
Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	Lng	R/G	Y/G	Ctch%	Rush	Yds	TD	Lng	Y/A	Y/G	A/G	YScm	RRTD	Fmb	AV
1994	23	BUF	te	84	10	1	4	3	42	14.0	0	21	0.3	4.2	75.0%								42	0	0	0
1995	24	BUF	TE	84	16	16	81	49	504	10.3	1	52	3.1	31.5	60.5%								504	1	0	5
1996	25	BUF	TE	84	16	15	79	46	457	9.9	0	33	2.9	28.6	58.2%								457	0	1	3
1997	26	BUF	TE	84	16	16	63	41	340	8.3	2	62	2.6	21.3	65.1%	1	6	0	6	6.0	0.4	0.1	346	2	2	3
1998	27	BUF	TE	84	16	16	22	14	146	10.4	2	27	0.9	9.1	63.6%								146	2	1

 

Still lets say those three players are changed to misses.  Butler still had a lot of good draft picks.

 

Because he was the GM in title

 

Brandon never had the GM title even when Levy retired right?      So seems to be some revisionist type stuff going on . Why would  a guy who was never in operations even attempt to run a draft?     

[spacemanspiff]

If you have 30 hits and 78 misses wouldn't the success rate be 30/108 or 27.7% ??

Edited April 9, 2018 by spacemanspiff
edit for minor math correction

[BuffaloRush]

1 minute ago, spacemanspiff said:

If you have 30 hits and 79 misses wouldn't the success rate be 30/109 or 27.5% ??

 

HAHA not - 30 hits out of 78 selections.  Still at 28%, his percentage would still put him at #1.  I will make the edit

[ddaryl]

Butler sucked at contracts though. Use to give out ridiculous money. he caused us salary cap issues if I remember well.

[dave mcbride]

I count 5 hits in 1995:

Brown, Holocek, Kerner (a very good player when healthy), Ken Irvin (solid starter), and Covington (excellent until he got hurt).

 

I also certainly wouldn't call Brooks a legendary miss. He didn't produce because he had a bad knee injury in his first camp - a camp in which he was lighting it up. The injury destroyed his career (much like Covington's did). He had zero catches because when he finally made a comeback, it was as a DB, not a WR. 

 

You gotta account for injuries.

 

Finally, Antowain Smith had 550 rushing yards and 4 TDs in 8 playoff games - which projects to 1100 yards and 8 TDs over 16 games against the toughest competition. He also had two very good Super Bowls: 92 yards rushing against the Rams and 83 yards rushing against Carolina.

 

To me, he was a very good first round pick. Just because he did a lot of his work for another team is meaningless in judging whether he was a good pick or not.  

[prissythecat]

16 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

It is so nice to hear that.  I get a lot of complaints from members who want to defend former GM's.  I just call it like I see it, and I'm glad to know that you like these reviews.

 

FACT:  Russ Brandon was the acting GM during the 2008 and 2009 NFL Draft.

Anything else is strictly rumor and innuendo.  Prove me otherwise with actual primary source documents

 

I quickly googled this topic to try to see what might be available .  Here is an article written by Matthew Fairburn based on interview with Russ:

 

http://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/index.ssf/2015/10/bills_sabres_president_russ_brandon_new_role_criticism_unbelievable_year.html

 

A direct quote from Russ himself:

 

" I've never drafted a player. The funny thing is, the one draft that a lot of people pinned on me, it was a great draft with the exception of the first-round pick (Aaron Maybin in 2009). All that credit goes to Tom Modroff. That's part of the business. I get a kick out of it sometimes."

 

[2003Contenders]

Nice work, but I would argue that the 1998 draft was MUCH worse that you indicated. There was a reason that there was no 1st or 4th round pick that year -- and it was because those picks went to the Jaguars in exchange for ROB JOHNSON!

[Guest K-GunJimKelly12]

I appreciate the effort, but haven't we already established that your rating system is faulty.

[BillsfaninChicago]

It seemed he was decent at drafting but that trade we made for Rob Johnson after I believe he had only played one game. Giving up the 9th overall pick and a 4th then signing him to a massive contract. It can be argued that move set things in moition for the drought era to begin a couple years later.

[Bag of Milk]

The 2000 draft class I call John Butler's revenge.

He absolutely despised Ralph Wilson by that point.

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Regarding Donahoe: great with the Steelers, came to Buffalo, and lost it.