HappyDays Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Nihilarian said: He's getting pressured, not every time, but just about I'd say 70 percent of his dropbacks, he's either getting pressure early — before 2 1/2 seconds — or his receivers aren't separating so he's forced to hold the ball and move and avoid pressure and then try to reset and throw. Or throw on the run while a defender is closing in on him," McShay said. "What are you supposed to do?" People talk about Allen like having a bad team around him counts as a positive. It's an important part of the evaluation but it doesn't help you scout him unless you're just looking at stats. He also faced horrible defenses most of the year but still threw a distressingly high rate of interceptable balls. So even if your argument is that he was pressured more than other QBs, you can still determine how he performed when under pressure relative to the other QBs. And again the numbers here are terrible. According to that NDT scouting report he threw an interceptable ball 20% of the time when he was under pressure. That's against lower college level talent. At the NFL level when everything is much faster that habit won't go away. His ball placement when under pressure was the worst out of 13 QBs evaluated. Similarly for throws beyond his first read he had some of the worst ball placement and a 20% interceptable rate. He will face plenty of pressure in the NFL and he'll have to move beyond his first read all the time. And he'll have to do it faster than he ever had to at Wyoming. When people say he has poor mental processing this is what they mean. Not his wonderlic score but his ability to make quick decisions on the field based on what he sees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 33 minutes ago, TheTruthHurts said: Not at all scary. There is no science to scouting QB's. Smart people get QB wrong all the time. I just don't remember such a wide variety of opinions. And...that's what makes it scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 50 minutes ago, Mat68 said: This is the worst part of "Scout speak". Round grades mean nothing. There is not value at picking a QB 3 or 56. If they become a franchise caliber starter in the NFL they are worth the 1st pick. Value means nothing if you like the player and they produce and are effective in the NFL they are worth the pick or possibly higher. Matt Malano would have been perceived as a reach if he was drafted in the 3rd though his play this past year would have justified it. Grades do matter but only the grade of the team that picks him. If a team liked Milano enough to value him in the 3rd and then he produced at that level it doesn't matter whether 31 other teams thought he was an UDFA. Every team has a different board and every draft analyst whether a professional for a network or a total amateur at home like me has a different board too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 47 minutes ago, TheTruthHurts said: Not at all scary. There is no science to scouting QB's. Smart people get QB wrong all the time. I just don't remember such a wide variety of opinions. Well, not since last year, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat68 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 1 minute ago, GunnerBill said: Grades do matter but only the grade of the team that picks him. If a team liked Milano enough to value him in the 3rd and then he produced at that level it doesn't matter whether 31 other teams thought he was an UDFA. Every team has a different board and every draft analyst whether a professional for a network or a total amateur at home like me has a different board too. Right but the guy is ignoring positional importance. 4 Rbs, a guard as his top player and splitting hairs on Darnold not including him in the first rd is idiotic and just click bait. If Darnold becomes an average starting Qb he is more important to a teams success than the gaurd even if he is a perennial all pro for 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, mannc said: Well, not since last year, anyway. I think there are just more guys to have different opinions on this year. But you are right there was plenty of disagreement on the 3 first round guys in 2017. Just now, Mat68 said: Right but the guy is ignoring positional importance. 4 Rbs, a guard as his top player and splitting hairs on Darnold not including him in the first rd is idiotic and just click bait. If Darnold becomes an average starting Qb he is more important to a teams success than the gaurd even if he is a perennial all pro for 10 years. Position importance plays a part in the way I grade so it is kind of inbuilt to my grading system. But at the same time when I am looking at who I would pick if I was a GM there are certain positions you will reach for - Quarterback is obviously one of them. But ultimately as I say... the only grade that matters is the one the team picking has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2003Contenders Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 (edited) This is similar to what Gil Brandt has been saying. He has not released his top 100 yet (to my knowledge), but he said there are about 15-20 legitimate first round talent guys -- and that very little separates the guys in the next tier, say 20th thru 70th. That is why as much as I would love to get a franchise QB, I do NOT think it is the end of the world if Beane is unable to make that move up to get "his" guy. If 4-5 QBs do go early, then the Bills have a great shot at landing two bona fide difference-makers at 12 and 22 at other positions of need (OL, DL, WR, LB). Then with three more picks between there and 65, they can load up on other potential starters. In talking about trading up for a franchise QB, I have to say that I get the impression that, unlike the Jets who appear to be OK with any of their top 2-3 rated QBs, Beane has a particular guy he is targeting. If he can make the move to trade up to get him, I think he does. If he can't, then I don't think the team will overpay to grab one of the "consolation prize" QBs. Edited April 5, 2018 by 2003Contenders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 3 hours ago, Virgil said: I actually kind of prefer it. This way, it’s more a projection of long term value and calls out when someone is a reach. Like when EJ was drafted.... The point isn’t to predict when players will be drafted for these scenarios and shouldn’t be compared to a mock at all I prefer it too. Just ranking the best prospects, takes the need based drafting by teams out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said: This is similar to what Gil Brandt has been saying. He has not released his top 100 yet (to my knowledge), but he said there are about 15-20 legitimate first round talent guys -- and that very little separates the guys in the next tier, say 20th thru 70th. That is why as much as I would love to get a franchise QB, I do NOT think it is the end of the world if Beane is unable to make that move up to get "his" guy. If 4-5 QBs do go early, then the Bills have a great shot at landing two bona fide difference-makers at 12 and 22 at other positions of need (OL, DL, WR, LB). Then with three more picks between there and 65, they can load up on other potential starters. In talking about trading up for a franchise QB, I have to say that I get the impression that, unlike the Jets who appear to be OK with any of their top 2-3 rated QBs, Beane has a particular guy he is targeting. If he can make the move to trade up to get him, I think he does. If he can't, then I don't think the team will overpay to grab one of the "consolation prize" QBs. I think there is only 1 guy he would go into the top 5 for. Think there might be a 2nd guy he would move up 4 or 5 spots to take but to pay the big price and go to #2 it is for 1 specific guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Only two first round grades on QBs? Lets package multiple 1s and 2s and trade up for that 2nd round qb. !@#$ it, lets just trade our next two drafts so no one pays more then us. Because if we pay a lot, that QB must be really good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Who Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: I think there is only 1 guy he would go into the top 5 for. Think there might be a 2nd guy he would move up 4 or 5 spots to take but to pay the big price and go to #2 it is for 1 specific guy. I am guessing this is contingent on Darnold going to Cleveland at 1. So, who is the guy at 2 if they trade up? I surmise Mayfield is the fella they might move up between 6 - 10 for, but I have no read on what they are really thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Just now, Dr. Who said: I am guessing this is contingent on Darnold going to Cleveland at 1. So, who is the guy at 2 if they trade up? I surmise Mayfield is the fella they might move up between 6 - 10 for, but I have no read on what they are really thinking. I thought for a long time it was Rosen. I am increasingly thinking it might be Josh Allen. I hope I am wrong because to me Rosen's tape is miles better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Who Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Just now, GunnerBill said: I thought for a long time it was Rosen. I am increasingly thinking it might be Josh Allen. I hope I am wrong because to me Rosen's tape is miles better. Bandit convinced me to think better of Allen. Rosen is clearly the safer pick, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 22 minutes ago, Dr. Who said: Bandit convinced me to think better of Allen. Rosen is clearly the safer pick, however. Yea Bandit is much higher on Allen than me and has Jackson and Rudolph basically flipped (he has Jackson as bottom of the 1st worthy and Rudolph a solid round 2 pick and I have them the other way around) but we are relatively close on Rosen, Darnold and Mayfield. I suppose I would be in Bandit's "take Allen off the board" club because there is no way I'd spend a top 10 pick on him and there is no way he doesn't go in the top 10. He is all but a top 5 lock I think at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo716 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 4 hours ago, SoFFacet said: Very few people think he'll be any good. He's inaccurate and slow. Almost nobody with his stats & pedigree has ever been successful in the NFL. I'm not a big Allen fan but calling him slow is ridiculous ... he is probably the second most athletic QB in the draft behind Lamar Jackson 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blokestradamus Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said: I'm not a big Allen fan but calling him slow is ridiculous ... he is probably the second most athletic QB in the draft behind Lamar Jackson He's in that Carson Wentz/Andrew Luck tier of athlete. I'd honestly say that he's got the best balance of any QB in the draft as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ndirish1978 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Thanks for this. I agree with his assessment for the most part. Makes trading UP more palatable if you're looking at giving up a pick outside of the top 19 guys cause the talent doesn't correspond to their draft position. This is definitely a draft to make moves to get your guy if you see someone you like early and trade back in the late 1st to acquire more picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 1 hour ago, GunnerBill said: I think there are just more guys to have different opinions on this year. But you are right there was plenty of disagreement on the 3 first round guys in 2017. Some people got it right, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D521646 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 I dunno what metrics anyone might use to "grade" a 1st, or even 2nd round pick, but for me, it's simple. 1st round picks should be sure fire day one starters, 2nd round picks should be "we're pretty sure this guy can start day one", and 3rd round should be "geeze we need a LB and we think this kid can compete for a job".. All the rest of the rounds are "cross your fingers and hope you get someone like Kyle Williams" Tim- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 28 minutes ago, mannc said: Some people got it right, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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