stuvian Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/04/03/josh-allens-red-flag-is-the-obvious-his-stats-stink/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bing Bong Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 I saw the QBASE ranking for Baker (who's 3 in a thread, their top 10 looked pretty solid for a statistical system More solid than I've seen the pro scouts selections over that time span Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Everything about Josh Allen screams that he's going to be a terrible NFL QB. From the stats, to the game tape, to the advanced analytics, I have no idea how anyone is talking about this guy being the 1st overall pick in the draft. He belongs in the 3rd or 4th round. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thurst44 Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, stuvian said: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/04/03/josh-allens-red-flag-is-the-obvious-his-stats-stink/ In fairness, they also weren't particularly positive about Carson Wentz a couple years ago (a fact they allude to and recognize that one of their main markers--years played in college--might be becoming less relevant). However, there are just so many red flags about Allen. Kyle Crabbs made a good point when he was on WGR the other day that there is a break between what analysts think of Allen and what commentators say about him. The latter has an interest in building Allen up, to gin up as much excitement in the draft as possible. if we took him at 12 and still had a plethora of picks in this deep draft, I could get excited about the potential of his arm, and root for A.J. to be a Keenum--style surprise in the interim. However, giving up most of our picks to get a guy who might one day be great, but probably won't be for awhile, and has the highest bust potential, does not seem wise. It's hard to see (and analysts back this up) that Lamar Jackson is any more of a risk (and probably even less so) and can be had along with possible future starters at linebacker, defensive tackle, running back, wide receiver, etc. Edited April 3, 2018 by thurst44 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheElectricCompany Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, jrober38 said: I have no idea how anyone is talking about this guy being the 1st overall pick in the draft. Because if he figures it out, he'll likely be the best QB of the class. He has every QB beat in the physical tools department, and that matters to many teams. I like his potential, and he could be molded by the right coach, but he could really benefit from riding the pine for a year or two. He's certainly a boom/bust type prospect. Being smart, huge and having a howitzer under your right shoulder will always put you high in the draft. Edited April 3, 2018 by TheElectricCompany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said: Because if he figures it out, he'll likely be the best QB of the class. He has every QB beat in the physical tools department, and that matters to many teams. I like his potential, and he could be molded by the right coach, but he could really benefit from riding the pine for a year or two. He's certainly a boom/bust type prospect. Being smart, huge and having a howitzer under your right shoulder will always put you high in the draft. Look up any list of elite, all time great NFL QBs. Few of them had incredible physical tools, so saying if he figures it out his upside is enormous doesn't add up. The common trait elite NFL QBs have is accuracy. When they throw the ball, it goes where they intend for it to go, and they put their receivers in a position to run after the catch which ultimately keeps the chains moving. Josh Allen's worst trait is his accuracy. Like so many big, strong, bazooka armed QBs before him, if he doesn't figure out how to dramatically improve his accuracy and ball placement, he has no hope of ever being an elite NFL QB. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyBatty is alive Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 1 minute ago, jrober38 said: Look up any list of elite, all time great NFL QBs. Few of them had incredible physical tools, so saying if he figures it out his upside is enormous doesn't add up. The common trait elite NFL QBs have is accuracy. When they throw the ball, it goes where they intend for it to go, and they put their receivers in a position to run after the catch which ultimately keeps the chains moving. Josh Allen's worst trait is his accuracy. Like so many big, strong, bazooka armed QBs before him, if he doesn't figure out how to dramatically improve his accuracy and ball placement, he has no hope of ever being an elite NFL QB. I couldn't agree more. I saw the tape of him against a "super tough" opponent in Iowa, one incredible TD pass that was dropped, a few incredible escapes with his legs, a strong arm but way too many inaccurate passes, many way too high or at their feet, one int over the middle dropped, one int he telegraphed the entire time, could have been a pick six. I think Allen is going to be a bust, Jeff George at best or JP Losman with a better attitude. Strong arms arent enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brand J Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Let's put things into perspective... Boise State Passing Player School Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate Josh Allen Wyoming 12 27 44.4 131 4.9 2.3 1 2 82.6 Hawaii Passing Player School Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate Josh Allen Wyoming 9 19 47.4 92 4.8 5.9 1 0 105.4 Colorado State Passing Player School Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate Josh Allen Wyoming 10 20 50.0 138 6.9 6.9 0 0 108.0 Ohio State Passing Player School Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate Baker Mayfield Oklahoma 27 35 77.1 386 11.0 12.7 3 0 198.1 TCU Passing Player School Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate Baker Mayfield Oklahoma 15 23 65.2 243 10.6 14.0 4 0 211.4 Georgia Passing Player School Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate Baker Mayfield Oklahoma 23 35 65.7 287 8.2 8.1 2 1 147.7 I mean, what are we really talking about?? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheElectricCompany Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, jrober38 said: Look up any list of elite, all time great NFL QBs. Few of them had incredible physical tools, so saying if he figures it out his upside is enormous doesn't add up. The common trait elite NFL QBs have is accuracy. When they throw the ball, it goes where they intend for it to go, and they put their receivers in a position to run after the catch which ultimately keeps the chains moving. Josh Allen's worst trait is his accuracy. Like so many big, strong, bazooka armed QBs before him, if he doesn't figure out how to dramatically improve his accuracy and ball placement, he has no hope of ever being an elite NFL QB. The NFL is not a perfectly rational business. 6'5, 235 lb, smart and a bazooka arm will always be appealing, just like a 6'7, 310lb "dancing bear" tackle. There are always a few coaches who think they can be the ones to develop a player past their flaws. I'm not going to pretend that I've watched "tape" on Allen, but if he's graded so highly, he can't be that bad throwing the ball. It is true that if he fails, it will likely be because of his field vision or accuracy issues. Injury (at his size)or character concerns are unlikely. Right now, there is a team high in the 1st that is drooling over the prospect of Allen as their future QB. Edited April 3, 2018 by TheElectricCompany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Also discussed here: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/203494-aaron-schatz-2018-qb-boom-and-bust-projections-with-qbase/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Putin Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 1 hour ago, jrober38 said: Everything about Josh Allen screams that he's going to be a terrible NFL QB. From the stats, to the game tape, to the advanced analytics, I have no idea how anyone is talking about this guy being the 1st overall pick in the draft. He belongs in the 3rd or 4th round. Actually he’s on par with Dan Marino as far as competition % Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 (edited) 34 minutes ago, jrober38 said: Look up any list of elite, all time great NFL QBs. Few of them had incredible physical tools, so saying if he figures it out his upside is enormous doesn't add up. The common trait elite NFL QBs have is accuracy. When they throw the ball, it goes where they intend for it to go, and they put their receivers in a position to run after the catch which ultimately keeps the chains moving. Josh Allen's worst trait is his accuracy. Like so many big, strong, bazooka armed QBs before him, if he doesn't figure out how to dramatically improve his accuracy and ball placement, he has no hope of ever being an elite NFL QB. Marino had a freaking gatling gun. Kelly had a strong arm. Both great Steelers QBs, Bradshaw and Roethlisberger had big arms. Elway had a monster arm. Lamonica.. And those are some of all-time greats. So, sorry but that doesn't hold up. Sure, some of the all-time greats didn't. But a very fair percentage did. Agreed that he has to improve his accuracy. There's some indications that he already has from his QB coach, Jordan Palmer. We'll see how that holds up. Edited April 3, 2018 by Thurman#1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 21 minutes ago, jrober38 said: Look up any list of elite, all time great NFL QBs. Few of them had incredible physical tools, so saying if he figures it out his upside is enormous doesn't add up. The common trait elite NFL QBs have is accuracy. When they throw the ball, it goes where they intend for it to go, and they put their receivers in a position to run after the catch which ultimately keeps the chains moving. Josh Allen's worst trait is his accuracy. Like so many big, strong, bazooka armed QBs before him, if he doesn't figure out how to dramatically improve his accuracy and ball placement, he has no hope of ever being an elite NFL QB. Brady, more than anything else, is accurate. And the QB in the draft who gets high grades in accuracy is Baker Mayfield. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay_Fixit Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 30 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said: Because if he figures it out, he'll likely be the best QB of the class. He has every QB beat in the physical tools department, and that matters to many teams. I like his potential, and he could be molded by the right coach, but he could really benefit from riding the pine for a year or two. He's certainly a boom/bust type prospect. Being smart, huge and having a howitzer under your right shoulder will always put you high in the draft. And NFL teams never seem to smarten up. Josh Allen is a disaster waiting to happen. His accuracy is his issue. And that’s the worst issue to have as an NFL QB. Being big, or having a howitzer means absolutely nothing if you can’t put the ball where it needs to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said: Marino had a freaking gatling gun. Kelly had a strong arm. Both great Steelers QBs, Bradshaw and Roethlisberger had big arms. Elway had a monster arm. And those are some of all-time greats. So, sorry but that doesn't hold up. Sure, some of the all-time greats didn't. But a very fair percentage did. You're right. But rober's fundamental point is true. The one thing that all the greats have is accuracy. Not big arms, not mobility, not size. What they all have is accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blacklabel Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 (edited) I wonder what this board will look like if Buffalo trades up and drafts Allen, hahaha. These QBASE stats aren't very inspiring, that's for sure. I was listening to Shredd & Ragan on my way in this morning and they were talking about this. Going back to the late 90s, they've run this QBASE thing on all QBs taken within the first 100 picks. I think 27 of them had negative ratings (like Allen) and not a one of them turned into a viable NFL QB. We know Allen has the physical tools but to me, he's going to need an innovative OC and QB coach (think like McVay or Pederson) to tap into his potential and turn him into an NFL QB. I just can't see David Culley becoming a "QB whisperer" and turning Allen into an All-Pro. 8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: Brady, more than anything else, is accurate. And the QB in the draft who gets high grades in accuracy is Baker Mayfield. The rebuttal to Mayfield's accuracy is that the system he was in had play designs that made it easy for him to find open targets. And accuracy is finally taking over as the top trait a QB can have over arm strength. You can launch a ball 80 yards but it doesn't mean a thing if you consistently hit your guys in the feet on a five-yard dump-off. I don't care who they end up with, as long as they believe they're found their guy then I'm gonna sit back and watch the next couple of seasons unfold and see if they were right. Edited April 3, 2018 by blacklabel 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheElectricCompany Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Jay_Fixit said: And NFL teams never seem to smarten up. Josh Allen is a disaster waiting to happen. His accuracy is his issue. And that’s the worst issue to have as an NFL QB. Being big, or having a howitzer means absolutely nothing if you can’t put the ball where it needs to be. Every year, players go way higher than they should, and other players slide for no rational reason. Expecting every team to work the ESPN/NFL big board top to bottom is foolish. I 1 hour ago, blacklabel said: I wonder what this board will look like if Buffalo trades up and drafts Allen, hahaha. Yep, you have to get behind the fact that one of the top QBs, barring something completely unforeseen, will be a Bill at the end of this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelingOnYouboty Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Just turn on his 2017 game tape and it's insane that people are arguing for him. I understand he has elite arm, size and athletic ability for his size but at some point the games matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerJ Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 What it says is that Allen is a high risk player. The reasons for that, I think are the same ones we all know about: the college program from which he came is not a major football power, thus he did not play against major competition, and there are accuracy issues that may or may not be correctable with better footwork. I think the Browns are going to pick him at the top of the draft, so Bills fans may not have to worry about the bust risk, but if he drops to the Bills and the Bills pick him, I'm not going to mimic Chicken Little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: You're right. But rober's fundamental point is true. The one thing that all the greats have is accuracy. Not big arms, not mobility, not size. What they all have is accuracy. Did I disagree with that part of his post? I guess your underlying point is that Josh Allen doesn't have accuracy. And there are now questions about that. Check the interview I posted with Jordan Palmer about working with Allen over the past few months. Palmer says the inaccuracy was from a mechanical flaw, overstriding, and that it can be addressed and in fact has already been addressed in Palmer's sessions with Allen, and that that's the reason he was more accurate in the Senior Bowl than he was during the season, more accurate still at the combine and will be extremely accurate at his Pro Day. Clearly that's no guarantee that the changes will stick, but they might. That, I believe, is why teams are so interested in a guy whose completion percentage was so low. Edited April 3, 2018 by Thurman#1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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