QBASE says Josh Allen likely to suck

[transplantbillsfan]

26 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

His numbers are pretty similar to Carson Wentz with the exception of the completion percentage. On a per game basis during their two years as starters:

 

Wentz: 207 yards, 1.8 TDs, 0.6 INTs

Allen: 201 yards, 1.8 TDs, 0.8 INTs

 

If you normalize their numbers for the same number of pass attempts (for ***** and giggles, I extrapolated it as if both of them threw the same number of passes as Dak Prescott this season; he was 16th in the league in pass attempts)...

 

Wentz: 4,123 yards, 36 TDs, 12 INTs

Allen: 3,822 yards, 34 TDs, 16 INTs

 

The numbers aren't identical but they're pretty freakin close, and Allen played against a higher caliber of competition than Wentz did. People shouldn't be so scared of a player's completion percentage IMO. YPA is much more important, and while Wentz is still better in that regard, it's a difference of 0.6 yards per attempt and if you want to be optimistic and focus on Allen's sophomore year, his YPA was actually better than Wentz.

 

Wow... I like the work you put in, but I just don't see it.  And I disagree on the completion % thing... it's less of a concern for me with Lamar Jackson because of the sheer number of drops by his WRs, which you could even still see on his pro day.  But Allen should have simply been dominant.  He wasn't.

[Shaw66]

15 minutes ago, Logic said:

I hope you're right about the importance they do or don't place on faith and squeaky clean off-field behavior. I KNOW you're right about how methodical and detail oriented they are. Mr Pegula even mentioned it recently when asked what it's been like to work with Brandon Beane: "It's amazing how methodical he is". He mentioned it a couple times.

It's fair to say that WHOEVER the Bills select at QB, McBeane has done their homework. And no matter who it is, even if it's Allen, I'll be behind him 100% and root for him to succeed. And I will have faith that the these guys must have seen SOMETHING in the prospect, since they're basically staking their jobs on his success.

Me, personally? It's so simple from where I sit: If I'm gonna bank on a set of qualities and stake my job on drafting a QB with said qualities, I'll choose throwing accuracy, competitive fire, chip on the shoulder, leadership, and proven production over cannon arm, ideal build, perceived upside, and projected growth 10 times out of 10. I really, really hope the Bills select Baker Mayfield. In my own opinion -- and it's just that: an opinion -- people will look back in 5 years and not be able to figure out how everyone couldn't tell from afar that Mayfield was the best of the bunch. He has Hall of Fame and "most popular Buffalo Bill of all time" potential. But he's two inches too short and he's borderline arrogant, so we keep seeing him listed as the 4th or 5th best QB prospect. I don't get it.

We'll see. April 26th can't come soon enough.

I keep saying I haven't studied any of these guys, but from what little I've seen and read, I'm also completely on board with Mayfield.   Whenever I saw him, play over the past couple of years, I saw a flat-out winner.  I like his fire, his competitiveness, his ability to find guys when he's flushed.   Reports say he's the most accurate thrower in the group. Does he have an edge to him?  Yes.  So did Big Ben in his early years.   Beane can deal with that.  

 

And I would suggest you not believe the reports that say he is 4th or 5th.   I think he does too much too well for teams to miss the boat on him.  If the Bills got him at 12 I'd be ecstatic, but I think they'll have to go up into the 5-6 range, and maybe that won't be enough.   

 

I think it's too expensive to trade with the Giants.  Unless, of course, he is a Hall of Fame player.   

[Logic]

1 minute ago, racketmaster said:

Who said Allen played Division 2 football? He played for Wyoming in the Mountain West Conference. 

 

If you want stats that are worse than Allen's then look at Brett Favre. 

 

Brett Favre at Southern Mississippi at had career 52.4% completion rate. His stats overall were pretty low and a 52-34 TD/INT rate. 

You're totally right on the Division 1/Division 2 thing. My bad. The Mountain West IS mostly pretty abhorrent in terms of NFL caliber talent, though.

That being said, Favre was drafted 27 years ago. People have also cited Dan Marino as a sub-60% guy that turned into a Hall of Famer. He was drafted in 1983. Football was quite a bit different then.

In terms of more RECENT draft history, Matt Ryan (who was .1% shy of 60%) and Matthew Stafford are the only sub-60% guys that I can think of who have had success in the NFL. 

[racketmaster]

Maybe people that hate Allen so much are asking the wrong questions.

If they asked themselves when has a qb with Allen's physical traits (size) and rare arm strength (Favre, Elway, Stafford level arm strength), solid character, mobility etc. ever completely failed?

 

I hear Jamarcus Russell comparisons but that is unfair and like comparing Johnny Manziel to Baker Mayfield. Personality and work ethic matters. And when you combine that with rare physical traits it seems like it could be difficult to completely fail. 

[Logic]

4 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

Maybe people that hate Allen so much are asking the wrong questions.

If they asked themselves when has a qb with Allen's physical traits (size) and rare arm strength (Favre, Elway, Stafford level arm strength), solid character, mobility etc. ever completely failed?

 

I hear Jamarcus Russell comparisons but that is unfair and like comparing Johnny Manziel to Baker Mayfield. Personality and work ethic matters. And when you combine that with rare physical traits it seems like it could be difficult to completely fail. 

Jake Locker

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/jake-locker?id=2495194

Elite size, rocket arm, great intangibles. Out of the league after three years.

[racketmaster]

3 minutes ago, Logic said:

You're totally right on the Division 1/Division 2 thing. My bad. The Mountain West IS mostly pretty abhorrent in terms of NFL caliber talent, though.

That being said, Favre was drafted 27 years ago. People have also cited Dan Marino as a sub-60% guy that turned into a Hall of Famer. He was drafted in 1983. Football was quite a bit different then.

In terms of more RECENT draft history, Matt Ryan (who was .1% shy of 60%) and Matthew Stafford are the only sub-60% guys that I can think of who have had success in the NFL. 

I agree that it is pretty rare to find guys that are sub 60% that have success in the NFL. But we are also talking about a rare talent in Josh Allen and there are not many qbs to compare him to by definition because his traits are so rare. 

 

You might occasionally get a player with his arm talent but then he is also a statue. Or you may get the arm talent and mobility but they lack work ethic and dedication. Is there bust potential, for sure. Does the accuracy concern me, for sure it does. But are there some reasonable explanations for the lower percentage, for sure. 

2 minutes ago, Logic said:

Jake Locker

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/jake-locker?id=2495194

Elite size, rocket arm, great intangibles. Out of the league after three years.

Jake Locker is close but he never had the rare arm talent that Allen has and his career was marred by injuries. But I'll give you that Locker is a pretty close comparison. He was a 54% rate in college. 

[jrober38]

10 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

Maybe people that hate Allen so much are asking the wrong questions.

If they asked themselves when has a qb with Allen's physical traits (size) and rare arm strength (Favre, Elway, Stafford level arm strength), solid character, mobility etc. ever completely failed?

 

I hear Jamarcus Russell comparisons but that is unfair and like comparing Johnny Manziel to Baker Mayfield. Personality and work ethic matters. And when you combine that with rare physical traits it seems like it could be difficult to completely fail. 

 

EJ Manuel, Kyle Boller, Jake Locker and Josh Freeman say, hello. 

[racketmaster]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

EJ Manuel, Kyle Boller, Jake Locker and Josh Freeman say, hello. 

I just discussed Locker whose career was cut short by injuries. None of the above players had the complete package of physical traits and good character. When did anyone ever say that EJ Manuel had one of the strongest arms ever to play the game of football? They are on a different level as far as arm strength. 

[jrober38]

Just now, racketmaster said:

I just discussed Locker whose career was cut short by injuries. None of the above players had the complete package of physical traits and good character. When did anyone ever say that EJ Manuel had one of the strongest arms ever to play the game of football? They are on a different level as far as arm strength. 

 

That's simply not true. People raved about Boller and Freeman. They were great off the field and had howitzers for an arm. Bollers arm was an absolute cannon.

 

Unfortunately neither guy could hit the broadside of a barn from 20 yards. 

 

Christian Hackenburg is another example of a guy with size, intangibles and accuracy who rose up draft boards and is likely on his way out of the league in a few months after only two years due to horrendous accuracy. 

[racketmaster]

jrober, tell me something else about Allen's character, leadership, dedication, family history, physical traits, physical ability that will cause him to fail other than accuracy (as determined by 56.1%)? 

There does not seem to be another issue or flag surrounding him.

Darnold - turnover prone

Rosen - difficult personality and durability concerns

Mayfield - lack of height and attitude concerns

Jackson - accuracy issues, 13 wonderlic

Rudolph - limited arm strength

All these guys have issues and they all have positive traits. I just don't understand why Allen seems to be an obvious bust and the above qbs are considered much safer options. 

 

[major]

Whoever takes Allen, they just need to have him thrown rainbows on every play, seeing as how that seems to be his claim to fame

[racketmaster]

4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

That's simply not true. People raved about Boller and Freeman. They were great off the field and had howitzers for an arm. Bollers arm was an absolute cannon.

 

Unfortunately neither guy could hit the broadside of a barn from 20 yards. 

 

Christian Hackenburg is another example of a guy with size, intangibles and accuracy who rose up draft boards and is likely on his way out of the league in a few months after only two years due to horrendous accuracy. 

Boller was 6'3 and Allen is 6'5. His arm talent was close but there are plenty of analysts that think Allen has the strongest arm ever. 

Freeman did not seem to have the dedication and work ethic.

Hackenburg does not have the mobility that Allen has. 

[TheElectricCompany]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

Christian Hackenburg is another example of a guy with size, intangibles and accuracy who rose up draft boards and is likely on his way out of the league in a few months after only two years due to horrendous accuracy. 

It's crazy how they are ready to move on, despite him not even playing in a game. He must be that bad!

Hack was never considered this high, he was always a round 2-3 guy, not top 10. 

I think Allen's measurables are much more impressive. 

[jrober38]

4 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

jrober, tell me something else about Allen's character, leadership, dedication, family history, physical traits, physical ability that will cause him to fail other than accuracy (as determined by 56.1%)? 

There does not seem to be another issue or flag surrounding him.

Darnold - turnover prone

Rosen - difficult personality and durability concerns

Mayfield - lack of height and attitude concerns

Jackson - accuracy issues, 13 wonderlic

Rudolph - limited arm strength

All these guys have issues and they all have positive traits. I just don't understand why Allen seems to be an obvious bust and the above qbs are considered much safer options. 

 

 

Allen's critical flaws are accuracy and decision making. 

 

His accuracy is an obvious problem, and every scouting report says he struggles to read coverages and his instinct is to panic and leave the pocket if his first read isn't open. 

[racketmaster]

Just now, TheElectricCompany said:

It's crazy how they are ready to move on, despite him not even playing in a game. He must be that bad!

Hack was never considered this high, he was always a round 2-3 guy, not top 10. 

I think Allen's measurables are much more impressive. 

There is no question that Allen is a better athlete and has a stronger arm. It's like saying the 4.5 guy is the same as the 4.3 player. They are both fast but there is still a difference and I don't think posters understand how rare the combination of traits Allen has. He is a very unique package and it is not hard to see why NFL coaches would want to take a chance on a special talent.

[jrober38]

3 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

Boller was 6'3 and Allen is 6'5. His arm talent was close but there are plenty of analysts that think Allen has the strongest arm ever. 

Freeman did not seem to have the dedication and work ethic.

Hackenburg does not have the mobility that Allen has. 

 

Good god. Who the hell cares about 2 inches. He was the same weight and a lot more mobile.

 

His problem was accuracy and knowing where to go with the football. His rocket arm and prototypical size amounted for nothing. 

[racketmaster]

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

Allen's critical flaws are accuracy and decision making. 

 

His accuracy is an obvious problem, and every scouting report says he struggles to read coverages and his instinct is to panic and leave the pocket if his first read isn't open. 

This is something scouts, coaches and general managers are going to have to figure out. They get to sit down with the kid and his college coaches and they can piece this together better than we can. But Favre struggled with accuracy and decision making. It is pretty common for players with rare arm talent to want to force balls into places they should probably avoid (that's because they can sometimes get away with it). If they can learn some patience, then they have a chance to be elite. 

[jrober38]

Just now, racketmaster said:

This is something scouts, coaches and general managers are going to have to figure out. They get to sit down with the kid and his college coaches and they can piece this together better than we can. But Favre struggled with accuracy and decision making. It is pretty common for players with rare arm talent to want to force balls into places they should probably avoid (that's because they can sometimes get away with it). If they can learn some patience, then they have a chance to be elite. 

 

When do guys like this ever learn patience?

 

What you're saying Allen needs to do to be successful never seem to happen with similar QB prospects in the NFL.

[racketmaster]

5 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Good god. Who the hell cares about 2 inches. He was the same weight and a lot more mobile.

 

His problem was accuracy and knowing where to go with the football. His rocket arm and prototypical size amounted for nothing. 

It's still not the same. It would be like saying Big Ben and Derek Carr have the same body type. Allen has the ability to shake defenders off him because he is so big and strong. 

3 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

When do guys like this ever learn patience?

 

What you're saying Allen needs to do to be successful never seem to happen with similar QB prospects in the NFL.

They may not learn Brady like patience but some patience can go a long way like with Favre. He still made the occasional bone headed decision right to the end of his career but who is not drafting Favre if you could go back in time. 

 

And what about Stafford, he has definitely improved his patience and completion percentage by about 5% during the past 3 years. It can happen but you choose to not believe it. 

Edited April 3, 2018 by racketmaster

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Good god. Who the hell cares about 2 inches. He was the same weight and a lot more mobile.

 

His problem was accuracy and knowing where to go with the football. His rocket arm and prototypical size amounted for nothing. 

People fall inlove with the physical attributes.  There's no convincing them otherwise, until they fail.   

 

The Raiders talked themselves out of every possible concern they might have had about Jamarcus Russell.   

 

I have a lot of confidence that McBeane are completely on top of this.   If they take Allen it'll be because they know several things we don't know.   

 

I put some stock in the Wonderlic scores, and it's interesting that Allen had the highest of the QBs.   Of course, Fitz was off the charts on the Wonderlic and he still threw every critical INT he could.