The Reason We're Seeing The False Rise of QBs

[YodaMan79]

If capped contracts on rookies, specifically QBs weren't in place, do you think this many would be going in the first round this year?  We've seen teams that have had success with QBs on rookie contracts take advantage of their low cap number and load up on talent in other areas.  Before if a team made a mistake at QB in RD #1 it would set them back years, from a cap perspective.  It's a copy-cat league and these teams want to get away with having control of a QB for 4-5 years with a bargain cap number.  Not that I disagree with this philosophy, but I think we're seeing a false rise up the boards of these QBs, potentially due the positive financial implications if you're lucky enough to hit on a starter.    I hope they'er lucky enough to find one of the 1-2 guys that will actually pan out.  I think this crop of QBs would be spread between rounds 1-3, if not the precedent that's starting to show itself.  We need to dodge the fools gold, and if we can't get QB they're 100% confident in, draft BPA.  Stud players in other positions are dropping due to the false inflation of some guys that in other drafts that would be lucky to be picked before the second round.  I know some of you think we should sell the farm no matter what.  But what if the talent this year doesn't justify it?  Just an FYI, when the eagles drafted Wentz, they did so because all their scouts and consultants indicated the QB crop from college was progressively going to get worse.  This is due to running gimmicky offenses, always being shotgun, emphasis on the screen game and defensive looks.  I think it's harder now than ever to know if a QB with translate into the pro game.  Buyer beware.  

 

*League rank of starting QB cap hit for protected starters in 2018. (From PFT.com)

 

23. Mitch Trubisky: $7.258 million. Slotted rookie deal from 2017, as the No. 2 pick.

24. Jared Goff: $6.984 million. Slotted rookie deal from 2016, as the No. 1 pick.

25. Carson Wentz: $6.669 million. Slotted rookie deal from 2016, as the No. 2 pick.

26. Jameis Winston: $6.337 million. Slotted rookie deal from 2015, as the No. 1 pick.

27. Marcus Mariota: $6.053 million. Slotted rookie deal from 2015, as the No. 2 pick.

28. Patrick Mahomes: $4.1 million. Slotted rookie deal from 2017, as the No. 10 pick.

29. Deshaun Watson: $3.463 million. Slotted rookie deal from 2017, as the No. 12 pick.

30. Dak Prescott: $680,000. By rule, he can’t sign a new deal until after 2018.

 

*The list doesn’t include 32 quarterbacks, given the possibility that one or more rookie quarterbacks will be Week One starters. 

Edited April 2, 2018 by YodaMan79

[NoSaint]

It’s no doubt a factor.

 

its also why we shouldn’t fret that missing will set us back 20 years like some seem to fear. Even with a trade up we will have a pretty full set of picks to make and we can take another swing at qb pretty darn soon if it’s a miss. 

 

Because we spend less cash on him we will likely have to spend a bit more in picks but by essentially trading lattimore for Tre white and a first we got a painless way to do make up a big part of the draft equity

Edited April 2, 2018 by NoSaint

[OldTimer1960]

14 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

It’s no doubt a factor.

 

its also why we shouldn’t fret that missing will set us back 20 years like some seem to fear. Even with a trade up we will have a pretty full set of picks to make and we can take another swing at qb pretty darn soon if it’s a miss. 

 

Because we spend less cash on him we will likely have to spend a bit more in picks but by essentially trading lattimore for Tre white and a first we got a painless way to do make up a big part of the draft equity

If they miss without giving up multiple years of draft picks, your statement is true.  However, if they trade 12, 22, 53 and next year’s first to move up and select one, then I think that is a recipe for regret.

 

I will say, go ahead and trade 12 & 22 to move up - that is the fruit from trading back with KC last year.  Beyond that, I sincerely hope that they have a STRONG conviction about the guy that they are trading up for - lots of room for error giving up more than the Bills’ 1st round picks.

[Boatdrinks]

The rookie cap is no doubt a factor in this phenomenon. It hasn't led to a " false rise" in QB evaluation, though. It's always been about calculated risk.  The cap has lessened the downside to a pick that busts. Teams are now more willing to draft a QB as the potential reward is now worth the risk. 

[Thurman#1]

It's not a false rise.

 

It's been known for more than a year that this year was going to be a good one for QBs. Salaries have nothing to do with it. 

 

2014 was a great year for WRs. Five went in the first round. Why? Because there were a lot of good WRs coming out. Why? Because that's what happens sometimes. That was a good year for WRs. This is a good year for QBs.

 

As for rising up boards and whether the QBs are getting picked maybe earlier than they should be? Yeah, maybe. Happens every year. QBs are the most important piece in the puzzle. They're often picked earlier than should happen. It's been happening for decades, even more so since they changed the rules to aid the passing game.

 

Buyer beware? Sure. That's always true. Always has been, always will be.

Edited April 2, 2018 by Thurman#1

[dlonce]

OP,  what do you mean by false rise?

 

Theres nothing false about it. The QBs in this class are pretty good. There may be more of a gamble because of contract,but it’s not false. Teams ride with their new player regardless,it’s just a bit easier to move on. GMs get fired for making bad picks so they are not throwing darts at a board.

 

So, you are one that would rather stay at 12 and keep the picks? 

[YodaMan79]

Similar to others, I'm all for moving up using 22 and another chip.  I am not in favor of doing anything similar to the Jets. 

 

And I do feel these QBs are rising ranks due to desperation.  This looks more like 06, 07, or 11 than 16 or 14. 

Edited April 2, 2018 by YodaMan79

[Punching Bag]

Plenty of drafts have "known" that they had good QBs.  This has not prevented many drafts filled with busts of QBs unable to change their game to NFL.

[Scorp83]

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

It's not a false rise.

 

It's been known for more than a year that this year was going to be a good one for QBs. Salaries have nothing to do with it. 

 

2014 was a great year for WRs. Five went in the first round. Why? Because there were a lot of good WRs coming out. Why? Because that's what happens sometimes. That was a good year for WRs. This is a good year for QBs.

 

As for rising up boards and whether the QBs are getting picked maybe earlier than they should be? Yeah, maybe. Happens every year. QBs are the most important piece in the puzzle. They're often picked earlier than should happen. It's been happening for decades, even more so since they changed the rules to aid the passing game.

 

Buyer beware? Sure. That's always true. Always has been, always will be.

Thurm!

[Doc Brown]

I disagree.  Teams have been reaching for quarterbacks for years.  Look at the '99 draft where five QB's were drafted in the top 12 (Couch, McNabb, Akili Smith, Culpepper, McNown).  The following year only one QB was taken in the first round (Chad Pennington at #18).  A new GM and coach know that their fate rests on the quarterback unless they hit a home run on almost every other roster move they make.  It was like that before and after the rookie wage cap.  Look at 2013 which featured a horrible QB rookie class where we were the only one's dumb and desperate enough to draft a QB in the 1st round.

Edited April 2, 2018 by Doc Brown

[MJS]

I happen to think that there are good QB's this year and that many of them do deserve to be drafted high.

 

But GM's / decision makers reach for QB's all the time, not because they are thinking about cap issues but because QB is the most important position and they WILL be fired if they don't get a good one soon.

[gobills1212]

I'm not sure it's a 'phenomenon'...

[KDIGGZ]

Pretty ignorant post OP. False rise, that's funny. Your bias is showing. It's the best QB draft class in years. People can't seem to wrap their head around the fact that QB is the most important position in football and perhaps in all of sports. 

[Peace Frog]

1 hour ago, kdiggz said:

Pretty ignorant post OP. False rise, that's funny. Your bias is showing. It's the best QB draft class in years. People can't seem to wrap their head around the fact that QB is the most important position in football and perhaps in all of sports. 

QB is the most important position in all of sports.

Next would be NHL goalie.

Last, but not least, MLB pitcher.

[Buddo]

I think there's a good deal of truth in the OP, but I think also, that the premise is couched poorly. 'False Rise' is simply not the best descriptor, imho. 'Additionally inflated', is where I see it.

QBs have been being 'over drafted' for a good few years now.

 

Nix, in one of his last PCs around the time of a draft, was quite open about this, and the fact that there were a couple of guys who turned out pretty decent, who he was prepared to draft with his next pick, but someone else took them a lot earlier than expected. Wilson certainly comes into that category, and iirc, Cousins did also.

 

This is, undoubtedly, one of the better QB classes, for years, and it's quite likely that 4 guys will have 1st round grades, irrespective of where they get taken.

 

Now, under the old system of contracts, I think you would be likely to see these guys taken closer to where they would come in a 'Big Board', with one taken top 5, one top 10, one top 20, and one top 30, but because of the premium nature of the position, it would be at the top part of each of those sections.

 

Now, however, due to the rookie wage scale, it isn't beyond belief, that they could all go within the top 5 picks. Personally I dont see that happening, but I would be surprised if they haven't all gone by #15 at the latest. That implies a significant 'bump' in where they are being drafted, but it's still not so far out of whack to be called a 'false rise'. There have been teams prepared to take 'flyers' on raw QBs for years, and that includes jumping up into the top 10 picks to do so. (e.g. Jest and Sanchez).

 

Generally speaking, teams aren't taking QBs at the top end of the draft, inordinately higher than they should, but they are more prepared to move earlier on a guy they like.

 

The biggest difficulty this year, is that although there might be 4 QBs ith genuine 1st round grades, they all also have at least one red flag against them, and finding the right guy to suit your franchise, isn't going to be that easy, even assuming you are in a position to draft him.

[SoTier]

Contrary to popular thought, I don't think that the rookie salary scale has much to do with the "rise" of false QB prospects.  I think that very few teams are allowing the salary cap implications to determine whether they take a first round QB or not as there doesn't seem any correlation between the quality of QBs taken after the first round before the institution of the rookie salary cap and after. 

 

If the rookie salary encouraged teams to draft lesser prospects in the first round, there should be even fewer "successful" QBs coming out of the lower rounds.  The reverse almost seems to be true as the most successful QBs in both 2012 and 2013 came from later in the draft.   On both sides of the rookie salary cap, when there are attractive QB prospects, they get drafted in the first round and less attractive prospects get drafted later, and teams continue to miss on their QB evaluations.

 

Year - # of first rounders - Best QBs: (by draft order)

The NFL salary cap was instituted in 1994.

1994 - 2  Best QBs: Trent Dilfer (1), Gus Frerotte

1995 - 2  Best QBs: Steve McNair (1), Kerry Collins (1), Kordell Stewart

1996 - 0  Best QBs: Tony Banks

1997 - 1  Best QBs: Jake Plummer

1998 - 2  Best QBs: Peyton Manning (1), Charlie Batch, Matt Hasselbeck

1999 - 5  Best QBs: Donovan McNabb (1), Daunte Culpepper (1)

2000 - 1 Best QBs: Chad Pennington (1), Marc Bulger, Tom Brady

2001 - 1 Best QBs: Michael Vick (1), Drew Brees

2002 - 3 Best QBs: Josh McCown, David Garrard

2003 - 4 Best QBs: Carson Palmer (1)

2004 - 4 Best QBs: Eli Manning (1), Phillip Rivers (4), Ben Roethlisberger (11), Matt Schaub

2005 - 3 Best QBs: Alex Smith (1), Aaron Rodgers (1), Kyle Orton, Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick

2006 - 3 Best QBs: Jay Cutler (11)

2007 - 3 Best QBs: Drew Stanton

2008 - 2 Best QBs: Matt Ryan (1), Joe Flacco (1)

2009 - 3 Best QBs: Matthew Stafford (1)

2010 - 2 Best QBs: Sam Bradford (1)

Rookie salary cap instituted

2011 - 4 Best QBs: Cam Newtown (1), Andy Dalton

2012 - 4 Best QBs: Andrew Luck (1), Ryan Tannehill (1), Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Kirk Cousins

2013 - 1 Best QBs: Mike Glennon

2014 - 3 Best QBs: Blake Bortles (1), Teddy Bridgewater (1), Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo

2015 - 2 Best QBs: Jameis Winston (1), Marcus Mariota (1)

2016 - 2 Best QBs: Jared Goff (1), Carson Wentz (1), Dak Prescott

[YodaMan79]

That data is interesting.  It would be curious to see how it breaks down going forward with QBs now entrenched in the 25-30 million a year cap number.  Using the term "false rise" in retrospect doesn't sound right.  As an earlier poster stated, I think a more accurate description would have been inflated. I don't have a problem first rd grades on these kids, but being drafted in succession 1-4, or none being around at 12 is perplexing.  Especially when reading the breakdown on class, with each prospect having an area of concern.  I guess this is where passing on a guy like Mahomes bites us in the butt.  But if they parley the draft capital gained with that trade all will be forgotten.  

[4merper4mer]

11 hours ago, dlonce said:

OP,  what do you mean by false rise?

 

Theres nothing false about it. The QBs in this class are pretty good. There may be more of a gamble because of contract,but it’s not false. Teams ride with their new player regardless,it’s just a bit easier to move on. GMs get fired for making bad picks so they are not throwing darts at a board.

 

So, you are one that would rather stay at 12 and keep the picks? 

The QBs in this class...at least the top 4.....all have shown potential and all have question marks.

 

Darnold: Classic team leader?  Favre without the stupid picks?  Or perhaps Dave Krieg part 2 and his bazillion fumbles.

 

Allen:. Classic big armed drop back Dan Marino or can't hit the side of a barn Bortles?

 

Mayfield: Brees? or Flutie's crappiness coupled with Manziel's professionalism?

 

Rosen:. The complete package or arrogant douches whose durability makes Rob Johnson look like Cal Ripken?

[SoTier]

12 minutes ago, YodaMan79 said:

That data is interesting.  It would be curious to see how it breaks down going forward with QBs now entrenched in the 25-30 million a year cap number.  Using the term "false rise" in retrospect doesn't sound right.  As an earlier poster stated, I think a more accurate description would have been inflated. I don't have a problem first rd grades on these kids, but being drafted in succession 1-4, or none being around at 12 is perplexing.  Especially when reading the breakdown on class, with each prospect having an area of concern.  I guess this is where passing on a guy like Mahomes bites us in the butt.  But if they parley the draft capital gained with that trade all will be forgotten.  

 

IMO, there will be at least one QB with a first round grade (in alpha order Allen, Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen) available at #12.  I think only 2 QBs will go in the top five, one to Cleveland and one to the Jests, unless the Bills trade up which I don't think they should do unless they are absolutely committed to one of these prospects -- and as you wrote, they all have areas of concern, so maybe not so much.  I think that all the talk of all these kids going in the top five is simply media hype fed by the media frenzy that now surrounds the NFL draft.  Nobody knows how the pros have these kids rated, and all the talk about this team wanting X or that team pursuing Y is just speculation fueled by wishful thinking or the need to generate clicks/ratings.  A few of the predictions might even be right ... after all broken clocks are right twice a day.

[DCOrange]

The rookie cap has certainly had an impact in a few ways:

 

1. Rookie QBs don't cost a ton more than any other position like they used to in the past

2. It's easier to justify trading up when you don't have to trade all your draft picks plus make your choice the highest paid player at his position

3. It's easier to justify gambling on a raw prospect because you're not completely screwed if a draft pick doesn't pan out anymore