Previously the "Convince me Allen won't suck" thread, now the... "you're welcome" thread

[LABILLBACKER]

I see the Bills trading up with SF @9 and choosing Mayfield or Allen. I would prefer Baker as Josh will require more development. 

[GoBills808]

10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The Bills had the chance to draft Mahomes at #10 last year. No way they are now going to trade multiple 1st round picks for a very similar prospect. That would be incredibly dumb.

Passed on Watson as well, who had a bunch of accuracy concerns per NFL.com...dumb?

[thebandit27]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

No QB prospect is perfect but there are certain negative traits that history shows you can't fix. Ball placement is #1. QBs don't suddenly become more accurate especially when they're now going against NFL CBs. Darnold threw too many INTs for example but his problem was bad decisions, nor accuracy. You can make better decisions with more experience. For one reason or another accuracy never really improves a lot. And accuracy isn't Allen's only flaw. He's terrible against pressure and he makes too many poor decisions.

 

The Bills had the chance to draft Mahomes at #10 last year. No way they are now going to trade multiple 1st round picks for a very similar prospect. That would be incredibly dumb.

 

Since you want to ignore that accuracy does indeed improve in the NFL (as proven by more QBs than I can mention here, but I'll name R. Wilson, C. Palmer, M. Ryan, M. Stafford, and J. McCown as easy examples), I'll just retire from this discussion.

 

The OP wanted someone to put forward the arguments for Allen, and I've done that.

 

Now I'll just sit back and watch to see if he goes in the top 3 as I've said he will, and you all can watch and pretend that NFL talent evaluators haven't had this exact discussion 100x over already and decided that accuracy can indeed improve in the pros.

[HappyDays]

8 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Passed on Watson as well, who had a bunch of accuracy concerns per NFL.com...dumb?

 

He didn't lose those accuracy problems. Much of his production came from Hopkins making ridiculous plays, and he had the 3rd worst INT rate among starting QBs. I'm not surprised everyone already anointed him as a franchise QB but he still has a lot to prove. Admittedly I'm mostly alone on this.

16 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Since you want to ignore that accuracy does indeed improve in the NFL

 

I overstated my position. Accuracy can and does improve for some QBs, but when you're starting from such a low skill level and are solely being scouted on your physical abilities it is nearly impossible to develop into an adequate NFL passer. It's been tried over and over again. Allen's ball placement and touch are a mess. So is his decision making.

[GoBills808]

15 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

He didn't lose those accuracy problems. Much of his production came from Hopkins making ridiculous plays, and he had the 3rd worst INT rate among starting QBs. I'm not surprised everyone already anointed him as a franchise QB but he still has a lot to prove. Admittedly I'm mostly alone on this.

 

I overstated my position. Accuracy can and does improve for some QBs, but when you're starting from such a low skill level and are solely being scouted on your physical abilities it is nearly impossible to develop into an adequate NFL passer. It's been tried over and over again. Allen's ball placement and touch are a mess. So is his decision making.

I’m not a pro scout and I’m not going to bash another fan’s opinion on QB prospects versus my own. I’m pretty much at the point where whichever QB they end up deciding on I’ll be happy with.

[Mopreme]

10 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Here's why you'll get behind him:

 

He would be a Buffalo Bill

 

Done

Well said. 

[Tatonka68]

He is better than Josh Rosen who is a tennis player disguised as a Quarterback. Would not last three sacks. IR boy. 

[Bing Bong]

Mostly cause everybody here is convinced he will suck. We don't know **** about college QBs. The professional scouts hardly know.

[ColoradoBills]

7 hours ago, mjt328 said:

I've watched several of his games, and I also think Josh Allen is a long-shot for success in the NFL.

 

Another poster said he "accuracy is overblown."  No it's not.  It's absolutely terrible, and his passes are all over the place.

His pocket presence is also pretty bad.  He's very athletic, but when pressure comes, he has no sense for how to get away from it.

He plays in an NFL-style system, but doesn't do a good job of moving through his progressions.  So it doesn't really matter.

 

The bottom line is... If someone drafts Allen, they are basically starting with an empty shell.  All of the physical attributes are there.  But he possesses none of the natural instincts of playing the position.  You have to fix his mechanics.  You have to fix his accuracy.  You have to fix his pocket presence.  You have to teach him playbooks and how to read a defense.  This is a long-term project.

 

It seems a decent argument can be made for Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield as top the in that order.

I can agree with that.

IF Allen is available and he slides past DEN I would have no problem with Beane making a small move to go get him.

After the BIG 3 all the rest are "who knows" and Allen does have potential.

If we get locked out of the top 3 QBs and we pick any of the others there is a good chance we are looking for another QB in 2020.

 

One thing I noticed watching a couple of his games is he sure played behind one bad Offensive Line.

[PolishDave]

6 hours ago, JohnC said:

If the Bills moved up to the #2 spot and the choice was between Allen and Rosen whom do you think they would select? I think it would be Rosen but would have no problem with Allen. I wouldn't be surprised if the Jets had the same decision to make they would select Allen. If the Giants stayed pat and decided to take a qb and Darnold was off the board I think they would take Rosen. If I had to guess of the top four qbs I would say that Mayfield is the most likely to slide. 

 

If you look at the qb situation in Buffalo with McCarron, the Giants with Eli, the Jets with McCown and Bridgewater there is no compelling reason  to immediately put him on the field. In each situation it is likely he will be given the time to better prepare for the rigors of the pro game. 

 

I honestly don't know who the Bills will take.   Given a situation where it could only be either Allen or Rosen I would assume they would choose Rosen.

 

In reality, I suspect they are going after either Rosen, Darnold or Mayfield and trying to get high enough to do so.   But I am not anywhere close to certain on that.   Really could be anybody.   I have talked myself into potential scenarios that have them taking a QB with their second pick or later.

 

If they draft any QB with their first overall pick, then I am going to assume it is a QB that they honestly think is going to be great - and one that they are willing to bet their careers in Buffalo on.    - Because that is probably what they will be doing unless AJ McCarron ends up being the next Kirk Cousins.    So, if they draft a QB with that first pick, I will support them fully - regardless of who it is - well, unless it is Jackson or somebody I think they could have drafted in the second round.   

 

If they draft Allen with their first pick, then so be it.   I will assume they are confident in his future greatness.  

 

I like our head coach and GM.   I hope like hell they get the QB pick right so that they can stay here for the next 15 years or more and lead the Bills to being the most dominant NFL team for the next decade plus.

[Dadonkadonk]

11 hours ago, Elite Poster said:

If Josh Allen were 2-3 inches shorter and about .2-.3 slower with his 40, he would probably be a 5th round pick. 

 

 

But he is not 

[Spiderweb]

10 hours ago, 8-8 Forever? said:

Give me Lamar Jackson. 

Wonderful. You'll take a much weaker arm and only a tick better completion percentage. In the two year of watching Jackson here in Louisville, I came away with him being a great athlete and an inaccurate passer with less zip on his throws that you would like. Did you hear of hin poor velocity at the combine? Allen may be another bust but Jackson doesn't  look any better.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

what if they don't take one at all?

 

No trades, no quarterback for the Buffalo Bills in latest SB Nation Mock Draft

Mar 22, 2018, 2:30pm EDT

 

The Bills settle for a linebacker and a wide receiver after four quarterbacks get drafted in the first five picks.

 

 

12. Buffalo Bills (via Cincinnati Bengals Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech

The Bills are the big loser in New York’s jump up to the third pick. That means Buffalo might have to give up a huge amount of draft capital if they want to go get a quarterback. But if the cost is too steep — and they actually happen to really like AJ McCarron — they could build out their roster with two first-round choices.

If the Bills miss out on the quarterbacks, they are in a good spot to find a big-impact linebacker, whether it’s Edmunds or Roquan Smith of Georgia.

 

22. Buffalo Bills (via Kansas City Chiefs): D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland

An offensive lineman or cornerback is an option here, but wide receiver should be as well. The Bills don’t get much production from their wide outs, and Moore could quickly assert himself as a No. 1 option.

 

Grif’s take:

 

I doubt this scenario would come to pass on draft day, but if it did, the Bills would at least be guaranteed two great prospects. Tremaine Edmunds has the athletic profile of an Anthony Barr or KJ Wright, two dominant off-the-ball linebackers. He isn’t the most cerebral player at the position, but his 4.5 speed at 250 pounds makes up for any diagnosing deficiencies.

DJ Moore’s stock has been on the rise as more draft analysts catch up on his tape. Unlike Edmunds, Moore isn’t an overwhelming athlete but gets by on precise route-running and above-average hands.

Edited March 22, 2018 by DaBillsFanSince1973

[Solomon Grundy]

39 minutes ago, Spiderweb said:

Wonderful. You'll take a much weaker arm and only a tick better completion percentage. In the two year of watching Jackson here in Louisville, I came away with him being a great athlete and an inaccurate passer with less zip on his throws that you would like. Did you hear of hin poor velocity at the combine? Allen may be another bust but Jackson doesn't  look any better.

Actually, I heard Carr and Mayock both say he can "sling it"!! But we hear what we want to hear.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

The only way to convince people is to see them play n the NFL

[bigduke6]

NFL draft is the ultimate crap shoot,  there isnt one  real analyst/evaluator that truly knows what these kids can do.    history has proven this over and over again.

 

so getting bent out of shape about what will or wont happen is a waste of time.    Darnold could very well be the best QB in this draft,  goes to Cleveland and becomes a HoFer,  or turns into Tim Couch.

 

so many moving parts,  from coaching, team around the player, personal abilities,  luck,  timing,  etc etc etc.

 

football is the ultimate team game,  and zero people in this world can look at all these parts and make an informed decision thats 100% correct regardless of how much they know about these prospects.

[transplantbillsfan]

12 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

No I'm unsure about most QBs going in the 1st round. Not Josh Allen. I am sure he will be a bust. If I could make a living betting against every 1st round QB like him I would. No one with his scouting profile has lasted, not in this millennium.

 

Exactly!!! This is just head-scratching!!!

 

My question for absolutely ANYONE is whether there's EVER been a QB playing for a relatively small school like Wyoming who didn't dominate the college competition who's been successful at the NFL level?

 

Seriously... has that EVER happened?

12 hours ago, Rockinon said:

Funny. I am not thrilled about Allen either, but then again, I said the same thing about Ben Roethlisberger. Wish picking a QB wasn't such a crap shoot.

 

Big Ben dominated his lesser competition in college. So did Flacco. So did Wentz.

 

Allen... not so much... and that's being generous.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Are you convinced yet?

 

[transplantbillsfan]

12 hours ago, BuffaloSol said:

Lol he was not even close to the exact prospect, much different talent level. That doesn't mean he will be good but, he has much more upside than EJ ever had. The kid shows flashes of greatness, has all the physical tools, along with the willingness to work hard. That's why he doesn't automatically suck. He might end up sucking, but it's far from an open and shut case.

 

EJ had all the physical tools and the willingness to work hard.

 

God, I just looked at the scouting reports for both Allen and Manuel and even those are much too similar to be comfortable drafting him.

8 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

You can keep repeating this as long as you like, but it's just not true. This was written about Stafford pre-draft: " Too often leads his receivers too far or forces them to reach back, slowing their momentum and limiting their ability to generate yardage after the catch." 

 

 

 

Stafford was significantly more successful than Allen against a significantly higher level of competition.

12 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Your comments about Stafford are revisionist history:

 

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/matthew-stafford?id=79860

 

"Sloppy footwork. ... Will get lazy and throw off his back foot, which could lead to turnovers in the NFL... ... Willing to throw into tight spots, though more often than not he places the ball where it needs to be... ... Not great accuracy on crossing routes. ... Too often leads his receivers too far or forces them to reach back, slowing their momentum and limiting their ability to generate yardage after the catch."

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/118342-nfl-combine-analysis-matthew-stafford

 

"When Stafford is “on” there are few quarterbacks who can take over a game the way he does."

"Although Stafford can be brilliant at times, he has been known to be plagued with inconsistency, a trait that cannot be masked in the NFL."

"

He has so much potential and is so physically gifted that at times he seems to try to play above his potential. While this is a concern for some scouts, others argue that all of the greats have some of this in their DNA.

Let’s not kid ourselves. Matthew Stafford has a cannon for an arm! The kid has his question marks attached, but so does every budding star.

Much of his future in the NFL will depend on what other offensive weapons are around him. Right now the Detroit Lions seem to be the most probable landing spot for the Bulldog quarterback and that is not good news for him."

 

 

 

Forgetting scouting reports for a moment... Stafford was incredibly successful and got better every single year at a big time school in a big time conference and ALSO had all the physical attributes.

 

Allen regressed at a small school against crappy competition.

Edited March 23, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[transplantbillsfan]

11 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

Don't take this wrong but....  I  tried to convince you Taylor wasn't that good and you still don't believe me 2 years after the fact 

 

soooo.....  

 

Weird... you bring up a QB on another team in a thread about our future QB...

 

Why?

 

oh... and...

 

You were also on the EJ train, too.

 

But I'll thank you for the post, nonetheless

11 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

As I have said elsewhere repeatedly, if people aren't factoring in where Allen played (the least populated state in the country that is in the middle of nowhere and has a black population of less than 1 percent) and the bad state of the program before he became starter, they aren't analyzing. 

 

????

 

black population of less than 1%???

 

Where did that analyzing lead you???

10 hours ago, dneveu said:

I mean - Brett Favre played at a small school and didn't put up impressive numbers.  I know people will say its a different era, etc.  But Allen played on a crappy team.  Who knows if he'll be good or not.

 

Favre also played in the 80s in college...

 

and he was a 2nd round pick, not a top 10 pick as Allen is projected.