Previously the "Convince me Allen won't suck" thread, now the... "you're welcome" thread

[mjt328]

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

First, ask yourself why you believe that he won't.  It's extremely likely that the answer is going to come down to one thing: you don't like his completion percentage.

 

I say this because I haven't seen many folks say anything beyond that.  Usually it's not that succinct though; the detractors will say utterly ridiculous things like "he can't hit the broadside of a barn", which right away tells me that they haven't watched a lick of football from the kid.

 

Why can he succeed?  Well, let's start with the embarrassingly obvious: he's easily the most physically talented QB in the draft.  Huge arm, good athlete, extremely hard worker, and a clean kid off the field.  You can't ask for a lot more than that as a starting point.

 

Then you start to dig into what he does after the ball is snapped, and you see that he keeps plays alive when he's under pressure, is able to keep his eyes downfield, keeps communication with his targets when scrambling, and has a unique ability to challenge defenses over the top when on the move--that's the kind of thing that can't be defended. 

 

 

My analysis on Josh Allen has nothing to do with his completion percentage.  The other day, I watched his full-game matchups against Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado State, Utah State and Colorado.  So my opinion is based on 5 games, which is roughly half of his 2017 season.

 

No doubt, he occasionally makes really nice throws.  And thanks to his arm strength, he absolutely makes passes that some other prospects just can't.

 

But on a consistent basis, his accuracy is just really bad.  He is constantly missing easy passes at all levels, including his short/intermediate targets.

Good NFL quarterbacks are able to consistently hit moving targets (not stationary) between the waist and head level.  If a player has to break stride, jump, dive, reach or stretch out for a pass - it's not a good pass. 

 

EJ Manuel sometimes made nice throws too.  But his accuracy for an NFL QB was bad.  That is what I see with Allen.

 

 

[Batman1876]

I don't think hell suck because he clearly blows. 

[BillsfanAZ]

If the Bills can get Allen at 12 then I would be ok with it but not love it. Jamarcus Russell, Kyle Boller, and the list goes on of QBs that got drafted high with a very strong arm. Senior Bowl Allen was hit and miss. He had two nice TD's late with touch throws to the back of the end zone. If the Bills are going to trade up, I hope they pick a QB that is more consistent and less of a project. 

[FeelingOnYouboty]

Man like Josh Allen averaged 164 yards a game this year lmaoooo!

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

I mean - Brett Favre played at a small school and didn't put up impressive numbers.  I know people will say its a different era, etc.  But Allen played on a crappy team.  Who knows if he'll be good or not.

[D521646]

4 hours ago, Buddo said:

A guy who not only has prototypical size for an NFL QB, but who also has an arm that is better than that size. Other measurables are pretty good also.

 

Iirc, he hasn't really been playing football/QB all that long, relativ to other guys. This means his bad habits could be easier coached out. I'd also say that his 'coachability', would be very high.

 

Tbh, I've only seen a highlight reel and one game with all of his throws, but he seems to have some basic football intelligence, especially where he does realize you get rid of the football, rather than take a sack. He hasn't got so much of an arm, as a missile. I have seen him throw it without using ll the heat though.

 

Undoubtedly accuracy is an issue, but much of it might be down to simple footwork, rather than 'couldn't hit a cow's arse with a banjo' type of erratic.

 

I'm not an advocate as such, merely playing 'devil's advocate' in respect of why some might see him as a 1st round pick. Undoubtedly has the highest ceililng of any of this group of QBs, due to size and arm.

 

Me, I'd rather pick him in the 2nd round, and sit him for two years, as I think that would be the best scenario for him. I wouldn't rule him out of being a bust even then, but if he came through, boy would you have some serious talent to utilize.

 

 

I see Geno Smith, when I look at Allen..

 

Tim-

[thebandit27]

6 minutes ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

Man like Josh Allen averaged 164 yards a game this year lmaoooo!

 

Let's play "fun with numbers"...pop quiz: what did Allen's numbers look like against the top 3 FBS pass defenses he faced this year?

1 minute ago, D521646 said:

 

 

I see Geno Smith, when I look at Allen..

 

Tim-

 

[HappyDays]

29 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

You spoke to how each player's accuracy was described; my point is that I don't care how it's described.  Both players faced accuracy questions coming out of school.

 

As for Allen's accuracy always being discussed as a negative, well, that's not true.

 

Notice all the qualifiers. "Able to thread the needle." "Can roll right..." "Pretty good precision when allowed to sit in the pocket." No such qualifiers were used for Stafford because he was accurate more often than not. Look at the negatives on any one of Allen's scouting reports, ball placement always comes up. Look at the negatives on Stafford's scouting reports. They don't mention his ball placement, they mention his decision making. They're not similar prospects at all. The only thing they share is a strong arm. This should be immediately obvious by the fact that even though Allen's arm is even stronger than Stafford's, he is not a consensus #1 pick like Stafford was.

[D521646]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Let's play "fun with numbers"...pop quiz: what did Allen's numbers look like against the top 3 FBS pass defenses he faced this year?

 

 

 

I dunno, I'm with the rest here.  Just haven't seen enough from him.  That said, if evaluators see his high up-side as being 1st round material, then sure grab him at 12 if available.  Has he shown progression on errors year over year?  I simply do not know the answers to these questions, but I'm quite sure that the Bills scouting staff knows full-well what they get with Allen.

 

 

Tim-

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

I'll say it for like the bazillionth time.... I'd rather the Bills draft Rosen or Lamar Jackson but I'd be just as happy with Allen, he's a competitor, he took a ****ty Wyoming program with little to no help offensively, put the offense on his back (arm) and got them a bowl win, he can make any of the throws, with better receivers and supporting cast which i think we have I think he'll be an excellent face of the franchise, he showed what he could do at the senior bowl with better talent around him.

[thebandit27]

Just now, D521646 said:

 

 

I dunno, I'm with the rest here.  Just haven't seen enough from him.  That said, if evaluators see his high up-side as being 1st round material, then sure grab him at 12 if available.  Has he shown progression on errors year over year?  I simply do not know the answers to these questions, but I'm quite sure that the Bills scouting staff knows full-well what they get with Allen.

 

 

Tim-

 

Dude, a Geno Smith comparison?  They're not anything alike.

 

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

Notice all the qualifiers. "Able to thread the needle." "Can roll right..." "Pretty good precision when allowed to sit in the pocket." No such qualifiers were used for Stafford because he was accurate more often than not. Look at the negatives on any one of Allen's scouting reports, ball placement always comes up. Look at the negatives on Stafford's scouting reports. They don't mention his ball placement, they mention his decision making. They're not similar prospects at all. The only thing they share is a strong arm. This should be immediately obvious by the fact that even though Allen's arm is even stronger than Stafford's, he is not a consensus #1 pick like Stafford was.

 

Sorry, but I don't think you're being impartial here:

 

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/matthew-stafford?id=79860

 

"Sloppy footwork" - no qualifier; just plain sloppy

"Will get lazy and throw off his back foot"

"Not great accuracy on crossing routes"

"Too often leads his receivers too far or forces them to reach back, slowing their momentum and limiting their ability to generate yardage after the catch"

 

And the reason that Stafford was a consensus #1 pick is because he was competing against Sanchez and Josh Freeman for the QB1 spot that year.

[Heitz]

Mayock has him ranked as his #2 QB, FWIW:  http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000920805/article/mike-mayocks-2018-nfl-draft-position-rankings-20

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2018/profiles/josh-allen?id=2560029

 

Big arm, but the weaknesses listed are scary...

[Boca BIlls]

If the twam chooses him than he must have something that none of us see... Trust the process.

Edited March 22, 2018 by Boca BIlls

[transplantbillsfan]

8 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Here's why you'll get behind him:

 

He would be a Buffalo Bill

 

Done

 

No crap.

 

I've been saying that the whole time.

 

But why would I want him?

6 hours ago, Elite Poster said:

If Josh Allen were 2-3 inches shorter and about .2-.3 slower with his 40, he would probably be a 5th round pick. 

 

 

 

...or never make it to the NFL

Edited March 22, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Why does the NFL go down this path every few years?!!!!

 

Draft the guy after the first round if you want a pet project....which is what he is. All these goddamn contrived stats to say he's really more accurate than the film shows. SMDH

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, Mark Vader said:

I can't.

 

Can you convince me that all of these QB's in this years draft won't suck?

100% spot on Mark 

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, 8-8 Forever? said:

Give me Lamar Jackson. 

 

Waiting for our trade up to #2, but if it doesn't happen, I think this is what happens. And I'll be excited about Jackson, too.

[Domdab99]

8 hours ago, bmur66 said:

So we can be like the Browns and have some nice bodies

 

We have nice bodies. Didn't you see Zay's butt the other night?

[jrober38]

1 hour ago, Heitz said:

Mayock has him ranked as his #2 QB, FWIW:  http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000920805/article/mike-mayocks-2018-nfl-draft-position-rankings-20

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2018/profiles/josh-allen?id=2560029

 

Big arm, but the weaknesses listed are scary...

 

Josh Allen's weaknesses aren't weaknesses for any top QBs. 

 

Every elite NFL QB has elite accuracy, and it's Allen's worst attribute. 

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Notice all the qualifiers. "Able to thread the needle." "Can roll right..." "Pretty good precision when allowed to sit in the pocket." No such qualifiers were used for Stafford because he was accurate more often than not. Look at the negatives on any one of Allen's scouting reports, ball placement always comes up. Look at the negatives on Stafford's scouting reports. They don't mention his ball placement, they mention his decision making. They're not similar prospects at all. The only thing they share is a strong arm. This should be immediately obvious by the fact that even though Allen's arm is even stronger than Stafford's, he is not a consensus #1 pick like Stafford was.

You can keep repeating this as long as you like, but it's just not true. This was written about Stafford pre-draft: " Too often leads his receivers too far or forces them to reach back, slowing their momentum and limiting their ability to generate yardage after the catch."