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Allen at #12?


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I'm pretty terrible at judging an NFL QB coming out of college. I liked Ryan Mallet, I liked Johnny football,  thought Goff was going to suck, same with Cam.  It's got to be the hardest position in all of sports to evaluate talent from college to pros.. that being said, I think Josh Allen looks terrible.  reminds me of J. Russel big arm and not much of anything else other than "upside"..

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25 minutes ago, mrags said:

Hes big. Tall. Mobile enough. Has a super strong arm and a razor sharp release. 

 

While i I used to agree with all the flaws you speak of. I watched him a little bit and I think some of those things can and will be coached. I understand that he hasn’t done a whole lot against some really weak opponents. But I also look at the quality of team mates he had. He played for Wyoming. It’s not like this kid was around NFL caliber players like other QBs in Southern California teams, Oklahoma, etc. 

 

I will admit, the completion % scares me a little bit but I feel that can be fixed with nfl quality players around him and some coaching. 

 

With all that said, I really like Mayfield, although I feel he’s a little short. But his attitude and fire makes me want him a lot. I also really like Rosen (even tho I’m not a fan of SCal QBs) a lot. I would be happy with either of these 2 as well. 

 

I don’t want  Darnold at all and would absolutely hate Jackson. I admittedly don’t know anything about Rudolph 

 

hows that? 

True, Allen wasn't surrounded by NFL caliber talent, but he also had the luxury of going against DBs that won't even be considered as UDFAs. Playing against the likes of Gardner Webb, Texas State, New Mexico, etc., he should be KILLING those teams. If a player can't dominate in a pool of lesser talent, what does it say about that player? Forget about his stature and arm, his performance left A LOT to be desired. You're asking for someone who isn't innately accurate to star in a league where anticipation and accuracy are valued above all else. Can it be done? Sure, but it's asking a lot, considering no other QB in this modern era has gone on to have success when throwing for less than 60% in college. 

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I wouldn't mind drafting ALLEN at 12

After watching Allen's highlight reels, I am interested in seeing what he will look like behind a good offensive of line. From what I saw he was running for his life behind that WYOMING offensive of  line.

Edited by BBills88
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50 minutes ago, cashdude said:

 

 

Here is some stats that show stats aren't always accurate:

 

Tom Brady

Passing 

    Passing
Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
Career Michigan         395 638 61.9 4773 7.5 7.2 30 17 134.9
1996 Michigan Big Ten   QB 2 3 5 60.0 26 5.2 -3.8 0 1 63.7
1997 Michigan Big Ten   QB 4 12 15 80.0 103 6.9 6.9 0 0 137.7
1998 Michigan Big Ten   QB 12 200 323 61.9 2427 7.5 7.0 14 10 133.1
1999 Michigan Big Ten   QB 11 180 295 61.0 2217 7.5 7.7 16 6 138.0

 

Dan Marino

Passing

    Passing
Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
Career Pitt         693 1204 57.6 8597 7.1 5.9 79 69 127.7
*1979 Pitt Ind   QB 12 130 222 58.6 1680 7.6 6.6 10 9 128.9
*1980 Pitt Ind   QB 12 116 224 51.8 1609 7.2 5.7 15 14 121.7
*1981 Pitt Ind   QB 12 226 380 59.5 2876 7.6 6.8 37 23 143.1
*1982 Pitt Ind   QB 12 221 378 58.5 2432 6.4 4.6 17 23 115.2

 

Jim Kelly

Passing

    Passing
Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
Career Miami (FL)         376 676 55.6 5228 7.7 6.8 33 28 128.4
1979 Miami (FL) Ind   QB 11 48 104 46.2 721 6.9 5.3 5 6 108.7
1980 Miami (FL) Ind   QB 11 109 206 52.9 1519 7.4 6.9 11 7 125.7
1981 Miami (FL) Ind   QB 11 168 285 58.9 2403 8.4 7.2 14 14 136.2
1982 Miami (FL) Ind   QB 11 51 81 63.0 585 7.2 7.4 3 1 133.4

 

Joe Montana

Passing

    Passing
Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
Career Notre Dame         268 515 52.0 4121 8.0 6.8 25 25 125.6
1975 Notre Dame Ind   QB 7 28 66 42.4 507 7.7 3.4 4 8 102.7
1977 Notre Dame Ind   QB 9 99 189 52.4 1604 8.5 7.7 11 8 134.4
1978 Notre Dame Ind   QB 11 141 260 54.2 2010 7.7 6.9 10 9 124.9

 

You guys would be puking at the thought of drafting one of these losers...who suck so bad.

Are we back to this crap again?  How many times are people going to invoke Kelly, Marino and Montana's college completion percentages as justification for taking Allen?

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37 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

True, Allen wasn't surrounded by NFL caliber talent, but he also had the luxury of going against DBs that won't even be considered as UDFAs. Playing against the likes of Gardner Webb, Texas State, New Mexico, etc., he should be KILLING those teams. If a player can't dominate in a pool of lesser talent, what does it say about that player? Forget about his stature and arm, his performance left A LOT to be desired. You're asking for someone who isn't innately accurate to star in a league where anticipation and accuracy are valued above all else. Can it be done? Sure, but it's asking a lot, considering no other QB in this modern era has gone on to have success when throwing for less than 60% in college. 

Watching his highlights, i feel that Allen does something very nice that we all (many of us at least) liked in Peterman vs Tyrod. That he throws to WRs where they are going to be, not where they are. I would call that anticipation and I believe he has it. The accuracy while playing behind a line that has you running for your life is another thing (that doesn’t mean he will be any better here considering our line). 

 

The physical attributes have a lot to do with it to me. You cannot coach size. You cannot coach arm strength. I’d much rather have a big, tall, Big Ben type of QB than a smaller, shorter, Russel Wilson type. I also believe the type of weather we play in, that a bigger, taller, strong armed QB is better. We play in Buffalo 8 games a year, usually 2-5 in colder weather. We play in NY once a year, Mass once a year. It seems like we are always playing Cleveland, Cinco, Pitt, and KC. I’d just prefer a stronger QB I guess. 

 

 

Like I said previously, I love Mayfield and he is probably my 2nd with Rosen my 3rd. Both are very close and all 3 have something about them that makes them coveted at this point. 

 

I also find find it funny that we’re nitpicking here. Chances are, if we were to get Allen, he would be the best QB we’ve had since Kelly wore #12. It’s not like this guy is going to be a 5th or 6th round pick and I’m enamored with him over an early first rounder. EVERYONE in the football world believes he is not only a first round pick, but an early first round pick. 

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36 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

Are we back to this crap again?  How many times are people going to invoke Kelly, Marino and Montana's college completion percentages as justification for taking Allen?

 

I am not advocating taking Allen at all. I am simply saying nobody knows jack squat at this point and are basing all their opinions on stats from college. It is a completely valid position to look at stats of some of the best QBs ever to show that stats don't tell the whole story.

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On 3/20/2018 at 12:10 PM, BuffaloSkills said:

I'm pretty terrible at judging an NFL QB coming out of college. I liked Ryan Mallet, I liked Johnny football,  thought Goff was going to suck, same with Cam.  It's got to be the hardest position in all of sports to evaluate talent from college to pros.. that being said, I think Josh Allen looks terrible.  reminds me of J. Russel big arm and not much of anything else other than "upside"..

 

I guess we should take him then with your track record LOL

On 3/20/2018 at 9:36 AM, Flip Johnson said:

Are we entirely sure Josh Allen won't be available at #12?

 

Let's say we can't or don't get up to #2 and QBs go 1,2,3 - Darnold/Browns, Rosen/Giants, Mayfield/Jets.

 

Who would pick a QB next?

 

#4 - Browns - would have just picked a QB

#5 - Broncos - already have Keenum, think they are a contender now.

#6 - Colts - have Luck

#7 - Bucs - have Winston

#8 - Bears - have Trubisky

#9 - SF - have Garropolo

#10 - Oakland - have Carr

#11 - Miami - maybe Miami would consider a QB

 

Obviously other teams are in the mix and could leapfrog into that position. But it is possible that a) the Giants don't take a QB and b) no QBs are drafted between 4 and 11. 

 

If the Bills are set on Josh Rosen, none of that helps. But I suspect that they may be interested in both Allen and Rosen. Beane has the liberty to go slow and continue to evaluate because he has the ammo to get up into the top 5, but the possibility exists that a guy they like falls to him.

 

Everyone seems to want Beane to give away the farm to get to #2. He may do that, but this is a case where patience could be rewarded. The Bears last year gave away a fortune to move up from #3 to #2 to get a player they could have stayed put for. The Jets may have just done the same thing if the guy they want is Mayfield. Beane may get his guy by staying put or making a smaller draft day trade and still keep all or most of the war chest.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000922017/article/bucky-brooks-mock-draft-30-new-york-jets-land-josh-rosen

 

 

Broncos will take Mayfield. All the noise about Miami liking Mayfield is because Gase likes him and he will be the DEN coach next year IMO.

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If they are going to go for broke then go for the number one over all because the number 2 pick is going to cost all 3 number 1's the 2 this year & the other 1 for next year so if they are going to blow their wodd then just go for the first pick over all !!

 

I hope they don't & Mc Bean & company get the LB out of GA with number 12 & then see where the rest of the QB's fall, at 22 there should be Rudolph, Jackson & who knows some are saying that Mayfield could quite possibly fall that far & if so they get a great MLB & a possible franchise QB & if nothing else a QB for trade bait like the Pats do overtime they turn around .

 

Go Bills !! 

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On 3/20/2018 at 12:50 PM, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

Are we back to this crap again?  How many times are people going to invoke Kelly, Marino and Montana's college completion percentages as justification for taking Allen?

Kelly and Marino's completion percentage was remarkably similar to the top ten NFL QBs at that time.

Josh Allen's completion percentage is remarkably similar to Trevor Siemien. 

Those are the facts, fellow fans. I am truly hoping we are lucky enough that one of our divisional rivals are stupid enough to waste a first round pick on him. 

 

Edited by Tyrod's friend
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On 3/20/2018 at 10:59 AM, cashdude said:

 

 

Here is some stats that show stats aren't always accurate:

 

Tom Brady

Passing 

    Passing
Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
Career Michigan         395 638 61.9 4773 7.5 7.2 30 17 134.9
1996 Michigan Big Ten   QB 2 3 5 60.0 26 5.2 -3.8 0 1 63.7
1997 Michigan Big Ten   QB 4 12 15 80.0 103 6.9 6.9 0 0 137.7
1998 Michigan Big Ten   QB 12 200 323 61.9 2427 7.5 7.0 14 10 133.1
1999 Michigan Big Ten   QB 11 180 295 61.0 2217 7.5 7.7 16 6 138.0

 

Dan Marino

Passing

    Passing
Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
Career Pitt         693 1204 57.6 8597 7.1 5.9 79 69 127.7
*1979 Pitt Ind   QB 12 130 222 58.6 1680 7.6 6.6 10 9 128.9
*1980 Pitt Ind   QB 12 116 224 51.8 1609 7.2 5.7 15 14 121.7
*1981 Pitt Ind   QB 12 226 380 59.5 2876 7.6 6.8 37 23 143.1
*1982 Pitt Ind   QB 12 221 378 58.5 2432 6.4 4.6 17 23 115.2

 

Jim Kelly

Passing

    Passing
Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
Career Miami (FL)         376 676 55.6 5228 7.7 6.8 33 28 128.4
1979 Miami (FL) Ind   QB 11 48 104 46.2 721 6.9 5.3 5 6 108.7
1980 Miami (FL) Ind   QB 11 109 206 52.9 1519 7.4 6.9 11 7 125.7
1981 Miami (FL) Ind   QB 11 168 285 58.9 2403 8.4 7.2 14 14 136.2
1982 Miami (FL) Ind   QB 11 51 81 63.0 585 7.2 7.4 3 1 133.4

 

Joe Montana

Passing

    Passing
Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
Career Notre Dame         268 515 52.0 4121 8.0 6.8 25 25 125.6
1975 Notre Dame Ind   QB 7 28 66 42.4 507 7.7 3.4 4 8 102.7
1977 Notre Dame Ind   QB 9 99 189 52.4 1604 8.5 7.7 11 8 134.4
1978 Notre Dame Ind   QB 11 141 260 54.2 2010 7.7 6.9 10 9 124.9

 

You guys would be puking at the thought of drafting one of these losers...who suck so bad.

Very nice post, I'm going to rewatch some games of Allen and then I'm done with this QB class. With Allen's arm strength and mobility if he can improve his accuracy a little bit he will be a Big Ben clone. 

 

As of right now now I would rank them

 

1. Mayfield 

2. Darnold 

3. Allen

4. Rosen

5. Falk

6. Rudolph

 

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