You can only get a good QB in the top 3

[maryland-bills-fan]

John Elway	QB	Stanford	1round	1(1st pick)	Indianapolis
Todd Blackledge	QB	Penn State	1round	7(7th pick)	Kansas City
Jim Kelly	QB	Miami	1round	14(14th pick)	Buffalo
Tony Eason	QB	Illinois	1round	15(15th pick)	New England
Ken O'Brien	QB	UC Davis	1round	24(24pick)	NY Jets
Dan Marino	QB	Pittsburgh	1round	27(27pick)	Miami

....and with their second pick of the First Round, the Buffalo Bills select....

 

SEL #	TEAM	PLAYER	POSITION	SCHOOL
1	Baltimore Colts	John Elway	QB	Stanford
2	Los Angeles Rams	Eric Dickerson	RB	Southern Methodist
3	Seattle Seahawks	Curt Warner	RB	Penn State
4	Denver Broncos	Chris Hinton	G	Northwestern
5	San Diego Chargers	Billy Ray Smith Jr.	LB	Arkansas
6	Chicago Bears	Jim Covert	T	Pittsburgh
7	Kansas City Chiefs	Todd Blackledge	QB	Penn State
8	Philadelphia Eagles	Michael Haddix	RB	Mississippi State
9	Houston Oilers	Bruce Matthews	OG	USC
10	New York Giants	Terry Kinard	DB	Clemson
11	Green Bay Packers	Tim Lewis	DB	Pittsburgh
12	Buffalo Bills	Tony Hunter	TE	Notre Dame
13	Detroit Lions	James Jones	RB	Florida
14	Buffalo Bills	Jim Kelly	QB	Miami (Fla.)
15	New England Patriots	Tony Eason	QB	Illinois
16	Atlanta Falcons	Mike Pitts	DT	Alabama
17	St. Louis Cardinals	Leonard Smith	DB	McNeese State
18	Chicago Bears	Willie Gault	WR	Tennessee
19	Minnesota Vikings	Joey Browner	DB	USC
20	San Diego Chargers	Gary Anderson	RB	Arkansas
21	Pittsburgh Steelers	Gabe Rivera	NT	Texas Tech
22	San Diego Chargers	Gill Byrd	DB	San Jose State
23	Dallas Cowboys	Jim Jeffcoat	DE	Arizona State
24	New York Jets	Ken O'Brien	QB	California-Davis
25	Cincinnati Bengals	Dave Rimington	C	Nebraska
26	Los Angeles Raiders	Don Mosebar	C	USC
27	Miami Dolphins	Dan Marino	QB	Pittsburgh
28	Washington Redskins	Darrell Green	DB	Texas A&M - Kingsville

[NewEra]

are suggesting we should just stay where we are and draft a QB with our the 22nd pick?

it was a great draft even if you take out the QBs.

[Steve Billieve]

I'm not ready to try and figure out what he is suggesting.

But my initial impression is that he is merely confused.

[LeGOATski]

We could get a good QB at 12?

 

Any one of the top 4 could potentially be there

[ColdFront_USAF]

This draft was probably the best quarterback class in the history of football. This is the only time a draft like this has happened. Pointing to this as an argument is like pointing to Brady and saying we should take our guy in the 6th round. It only happened once. 

 

Not to mention, in the last 30 plus years teams have got much better at scouting quarterbacks. That doesn't mean they always get it right, but when you have guys projected to be future stars at the position, they go top 5 at the least. Sure we could wait at 12 or even take one at 22, but the consensus top guys will be long gone. I think there's a reason they are considered the top guys in a strong class. 

 

[maryland-bills-fan]

I am thinking that all the shrill demands to move up to the top 3 are panic driven.  We could just stay at #12 and see what comes to us.   Moving to #2 would cost us at least:

#12 and #22 in the first round ,

#21 in the second round   (56 overall)

#1 in the third round  (65th overall)

 

leaving us with #2 in the first round,    overall #56 in the second round,   and #96 overall in the third round.  That is not very much to rebuild the offensive line, the wide receivers and the linebackers.

 

If we stay at #12 we would have 5 picks in the first three rounds:  overall #22,   #53,   #56,   #54  &  #96.    That is enough to rebuild these positions.  Realize that 5-6 high draft pick veteran QB;s have been picked up by other teams this year, so a few teams are probably not going to picking QB's before us.   Even in the first round, QB's are still a crap-shoot.  I think that it is a wiser strategy to be sure of restocking the weak positions and also taking a slightly less good shot at a QB.

 

Edited March 15, 2018 by maryland-bills-fan

[ChevyVanMiller]

19 minutes ago, NewEra said:

are suggesting we should just stay where we are and draft a QB with our the 22nd pick?

it was a great draft even if you take out the QBs.

Only if we draft a bust TE at 12 first -proven process.

[maryland-bills-fan]

14 minutes ago, Steve Billieve said:

I'm not ready to try and figure out what he is suggesting.

But my initial impression is that he is merely confused.

 

Gee, you can't understand that in a good QB year, you can still get the best QB your team has even seen at pick #14 or a Dan Marino near the bottom of the 1st round.   .......  You can't understand that the Bills selected a tight end before a QB in that same draft?

[Peace Frog]

Do what you have to do, I don't care if it gets freaky, but do what you have to in order to draft Josh Rosen.

[Steve Billieve]

11 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

 

Gee, you can't understand that in a good QB year, you can still get the best QB your team has even seen at pick #14 or a Dan Marino near the bottom of the 1st round.   .......  You can't understand that the Bills selected a tight end before a QB in that same draft?

 

I'm still not really sure what you are saying.

What QB do you want to draft at 12? or 22?

Edited March 15, 2018 by Steve Billieve

[ndirish1978]

We might as well run the Wishbone I guess. Worked in the past should work out right?

[Steve Billieve]

I agree its a good QB year, I guess, but do you think Darnold, Rosen, or Mayfield are going to fall to 12?

 

If Darnold and Rosen are gone in the top 4 are you willing to take the chance that Mayfield falls?

[LeGOATski]

2 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

Do what you have to do, I don't care if it gets freaky, but do what you have to in order to draft Josh Rosen.

Based on his combine performance and questions regarding his attitude, even HE could fall to us at 12. 

[Steve Billieve]

You never know what will happen.  Top 3 overall QBs have a much higher success rate than those late in the first or after.  We've set the board to draft a QB high, which I guess is why this is a thread at all.

Do we change the game plan now?

[maryland-bills-fan]

3 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

Do what you have to do, I don't care if it gets freaky, but do what you have to in order to draft Josh Rosen.

 

I wish predicting the best NFL QB was an exact science- but then it wouldn't be as much fun. Most people think that Darnold  is the best prospect, but I can see somebody liking Rosen more.   Here is a nice article from last week which gives a good description of each QB and their strengths and weaknesses.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2018/03/07/2018-nfl-draft-ranking-the-top-10-quarterbacks/?utm_term=.fad976ddda3c

 

Nobody really knows how these will translate into the professional ranks.  The skill and speed is another planet from even the best colleges.  In college, the rookie QB only saw one or a few pro-calibre players every game and could avoid them. It is a different planet, when the weakest NFL DB is better that the best DB, that he was trying to beat in college.  It is not an exact science.   By the way, Rosen would be available at #12 if that Washington Compost article is right. They have them listed in the order Darrold,,,Mayfield,,,,Allen,,,,, Jackson,,,,,Rosen,,,,, Rudolph,,,,Falk,,,,,White,,,,,etc.    The 5th QB should be there at our #12.

11 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

We might as well run the Wishbone I guess. Worked in the past should work out right?

It worked in college for a while until teams learned how to defend against it.  You don't see it in college anymore.  It was never run in the pro's.  Defenders are too fast to the sideline in the pro's because they have the cream of the college players.

[Steve Billieve]

I would be surprised if this regime overreacted.  Once QBs start to go they'll probably go quick.  Lets say Darnold goes in the top two.  How much do you like the next two QBs on your board?  How much do you like the next three?  The Bills have set everything up to draft a QB high.  They've gotten an enormous amount of value positioning themselves in that way.  They got rid of possibly the best QB they've had since Kelly, they took the last ufa at the position for a bargain.  Who is this 5th QB your happy with?

And lets say your 4th QB goes at 7-9 what do you do?

Depth of Class does not denote value imo.

Especially at QB.

[maryland-bills-fan]

Steve Billieve

Steve Billieve wrote   <q> "You never know what will happen.  Top 3 overall QBs have a much higher success rate than those late in the first or after.  We've set the board to draft a QB high, which I guess is why this is a thread at all.

Do we change the game plan now?  </q>

 

I don't know what the game plan was, although a lot of people think they do know.   A good manager will have an up-front plan, but should be able to take advantage of changes in the situation. A military axiom is " No plan survives contact with the enemy".  What IS the gameplan?

 

Version #1 (most obvious):  The Bills were planning on tanking in 2017, so they would draft high and  get a franchsie QB in the 2018 draft.  They screwed up and got pick #21 and have been trying to claw their way back to the top of the draft.  They traded away good players (Watkins) to get more draft picks. They desperately traded away their (often) starting left offensive tackle to get a #12 so they might trade up to a top 3 (5?) pick.

 

Alternate Version #2.   The Bills worked in the off season to clear high salary cap, fairly good players in order to stockpile picks to rebuild the team. This includes a shot at a superior QB as well.   They have been wheeling and dealing and the last guy out was the LOF to bump up one of the draft picks to #12. They will draft a QB with that draft and will get a good one.  The rest of the draft (5 more picks in the first three rounds) will be used to restock the offensive line (center!),  linebackers and wide receivers.   They got McCarron as a two year stopgap, to give time for that rookie QB to develop.  They don't have to draft an immediate NFL ready guy who will start in game 1.

 

I think Alternate Version #2 is what they are going with.   By, the way, if we go with plan Version #1,  I will HATE seeing the 5 players we could have drafted beating the Bills in games for the next 7 years.

 

 

 

 

Edited March 15, 2018 by maryland-bills-fan
spelign

[Steve Billieve]

Yea, I'm sure they'll be flexible.  Chances are more than 1 QB will be gone in the first 5 picks.  If you're suggesting waiting to until pick 12, what do you do at that point if you only have 3 QBs you rate highly, or what do you do if you only have 4?  Lets say a few picks later at 7 or 9.  Going into the season with  McCarron and Peterman sounds like a pretty bad plan.  You can't just draft whomever, you have to actually like them.  What if the Bills don't believe in Allen or Jackson?

 

All you seem to be saying is there might be value for a QB at 12.  So what?  We've done nothing to take advantage of that.  We've done everything NOT to take advantage of that.  Which is fine we've gotten great value from Tyrod and McCarron, and we've also backed ourselves into a corner.  We should go up and get the QB we believe in.

[JM57]

44 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Realize that 5-6 high draft pick veteran QB;s have been picked up by other teams this year, so a few teams are probably not going to picking QB's before us.

 

Not a single deal signed or acquired by a QB needy team between would preclude those teams from taking a QB. Every single one was short term deal. Let's revisit.

Browns (#1/4) - Tyrod Taylor: 1 year, $10 million

Broncos (#5) - Case Keenum: 2 years, $36 million

Jets (#6) - Josh McCown: 1 year, $10 million and Teddy Bridgewater: 1 year, up to $15 million

Cardinals (#15) - Sam Bradford: 1 year, $20 million

 

Look at those long term deals! Sitting on your hands and waiting to see what comes to you is a surefire way to have other teams who have the same desire for a QB to jump you.

[oldmanfan]

We have not backed ourselves into a corner. We have flexibility to move way up, we can stay where we are.  We don't know what their board looks like for the QBs in the draft.

[Steve Billieve]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

We have not backed ourselves into a corner. We have flexibility to move way up, we can stay where we are.  We don't know what their board looks like for the QBs in the draft.

Totally agree.  I just think we have to draft a QB we like.  And I also think that will require us to move up.

[oldmanfan]

I anticipate they'll move up and get Rosen. 

[maryland-bills-fan]

2 hours ago, Steve Billieve said:

You never know what will happen.  Top 3 overall QBs have a much higher success rate than those late in the first or after.  We've set the board to draft a QB high, which I guess is why this is a thread at all.

Do we change the game plan now?

Deciding what is a successful QB and aligning that with their drafted position is a mushy piece of work.  I've tried that myself but found a better one here:

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/3/12/17108340/nfl-scouts-are-generally-correct-on-draft-qbs

 

He compares the first three picks with the rest of the first round and with the 2nd and 3rd round.  GOLD is what you want.

TOP 3 PICKS

• 64% GOLD
• 15% GREEN
• 21% RED …………………………………………{ ONE out of FIVE top 3 QB picks is a BUST !!!  that is a lot of wasted draft horsepower}

1st round

• 33% GOLD
• 16% GREEN
• 51% RED..........................................{about half are BUSTS)

2nd and 3rd round

• 22% GOLD
• 13% GREEN
• 65% RED

============================

working from the OP data you can estimate/guesttimate the following

=============================

How many times to you have to draft a QB in those spots to get a GOLD QB? (= 100 /  %chance)
top 3  ..............1.56 picks
rest of 1st ......3.03 picks
2n3 & 3rd ........4.54 picks

==========================================

and what is the draft-value cost for each GOLD success?

pick..............# of tries................median DTV ............................"expected cost" = {# picks} X {DTV cost}

top 3............. 1.56 picks............... 2600.................................... 4,056
rest of 1st..... 3.03 picks................ 875 ....................................2,651
2n3 & 3rd ......4.54 picks............... 265..................................... 1,203

 

It is expensive to go up to a top 3 pick- unless you are already there. AND even that is not a sure thing.

 

 

Edited March 15, 2018 by maryland-bills-fan

[SoTier]

2 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

 

Gee, you can't understand that in a good QB year, you can still get the best QB your team has even seen at pick #14 or a Dan Marino near the bottom of the 1st round.   .......  You can't understand that the Bills selected a tight end before a QB in that same draft?

 

This is seriously flawed logic.  It's as easy to miss on a QB in even in the greatest QB draft ever -- as they did in 1983 -- as it is to miss a QB in an average QB draft.  More importantly, a great QB draft isn't about the number of prospects in the first round but how many good/great QBs actually come out of the draft.  The team needs to judge prospects on their own merits, judged against an ideal, not judged against the other QBs in the class.  

 

If you can't get the QB you want, then it might be a wiser move to pass on the pretenders in the first round and take a lesser guy later in the draft, especially since some good QBs have come out of the later rounds in recent years.

[mjt328]

1.  NFL history shows the vast majority of successful QBs are among the first 2-3 drafted in any given year.

 

2.  NFL history shows that drafting success rates steadily decrease from the Top 5, to the Top 10, to the last half of the 1st Round, to the early 2nd Round, and so on.  By the 4th or 5th Round, it's almost impossible to even find a marginal starter.

 

 

Some of the fans on this board are unbelievable.  After what this franchise has endured for the last two decades, many of you would STILL prefer to go the safe route.  You would prefer to let the 3rd, 4th or 5th option fall to us - rather than get the pick of the litter in a strong QB class, JUST so we can have another Linebacker or Receiver on the roster. 

 

 

[JXCOL3]

I am so sick of being in QB purgatory. Trade whatever you have to in order to get the QB they want. It is the only thing we have not done as an organization in 2 decades and I am so tired of finishing in the middle of the pack with some scrub QB. Lets try something new!!!

[RochesterRob]

3 hours ago, NewEra said:

are suggesting we should just stay where we are and draft a QB with our the 22nd pick?

it was a great draft even if you take out the QBs.

  I was going to say the same thing about it being a pretty good first round.  The kind you don't see all that often.

[RochesterRob]

3 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I am thinking that all the shrill demands to move up to the top 3 are panic driven.  We could just stay at #12 and see what comes to us.   Moving to #2 would cost us at least:

#12 and #22 in the first round ,

#21 in the second round   (56 overall)

#1 in the third round  (65th overall)

 

leaving us with #2 in the first round,    overall #56 in the second round,   and #96 overall in the third round.  That is not very much to rebuild the offensive line, the wide receivers and the linebackers.

 

If we stay at #12 we would have 5 picks in the first three rounds:  overall #22,   #53,   #56,   #54  &  #96.    That is enough to rebuild these positions.  Realize that 5-6 high draft pick veteran QB;s have been picked up by other teams this year, so a few teams are probably not going to picking QB's before us.   Even in the first round, QB's are still a crap-shoot.  I think that it is a wiser strategy to be sure of restocking the weak positions and also taking a slightly less good shot at a QB.

 

  Shrill does not begin to describe it.  What I think will happen is Beane will do his due diligence like any GM and make sure all the scenarios are worked through and the calls made to other GM's about what if regarding their slots.  I think Beane waits until the day of the draft to make anymore moves and watches the draft unfold.  If two QB's are off the board at picks 1 and 2 then he may move up to 3 to be sure to get his guy.  If only one QB comes off by pick 4 and  if Allen is still there when the Jets finish their selection then he makes a move to get in at 10 to pick Allen.  There are no doubt more scenarios than that but those are my best guesses.

[P51]

There are 3 QB's this year worth (IMO) drafting in the top 5; Mayfield, Rosen and Darnonld given their skill sets. A bunch of vet QB's signed 1 or 2 year deals with teams that need LONG term solutions (including Buffalo, N.Y. Giants and L.A. Chargers as well with vet QB's) as JM57 pointed out:

 

Not a single deal signed or acquired by a QB needy team between would preclude those teams from taking a QB. Every single one was short term deal. Let's revisit.

Browns (#1/4) - Tyrod Taylor: 1 year, $10 million

Broncos (#5) - Case Keenum: 2 years, $36 million

Jets (#6) - Josh McCown: 1 year, $10 million and Teddy Bridgewater: 1 year, up to $15 million

Cardinals (#15) - Sam Bradford: 1 year, $20 million

 

Look at those long term deals! Sitting on your hands and waiting to see what comes to you is a surefire way to have other teams who have the same desire for a QB to jump you.

 

Buffalo has the ammunition to Jump into the 2nd or 3rd spot and still have a fairly normal draft with 2nd and 3rd round picks still in hand, whats so hard? How do they not do it?

 

SEL #	TEAM	PLAYER	POSITION	SCHOOL
1	Baltimore Colts	John Elway	QB	Stanford
2	Los Angeles Rams	Eric Dickerson	RB	Southern Methodist
3	Seattle Seahawks	Curt Warner	RB	Penn State
4	Denver Broncos	Chris Hinton	G	Northwestern
5	San Diego Chargers	Billy Ray Smith Jr.	LB	Arkansas

 

How many of these players made it to the Super Bowl, besides the Bronco's (w/Elway), none of these teams made it to the Super Bowl in the greatest QB draft of all time, passing on QB's in the top 5. Would the Rams, Seachix, Chargers or even Bronco's in hindsight take Kelly or Marino? They'd be stupid not too. I'd bet in hindsight (which I hate BTW) the Colts would take Marino and let Elway slide given his Chosen Rosen like attitude or speaking his mind and even stating that he would not or prefer to not play for a given team.

 

Given the higher success rate of picking in the top 5, with prospects worthy of such a pick (again IMO), why would McBeane and Co. sit on their hands and not use foresight and their available resources to do so? There is already a realist chance that 4 QB's will be gone by pick 6. These QB's are rated that high by not only myself but many others. This kind of draft happens what, once every 35 years?

 

TOP 3 PICKS

• 64% GOLD
• 15% GREEN
• 21% RED …………………………………………{ ONE out of FIVE top 3 QB picks is a BUST !!!  that is a lot of wasted draft horsepower}

How many times to you have to draft a QB in those spots to get a GOLD QB? (= 100 /  %chance)
top 3  ..............1.56 picks
rest of 1st ......3.03 picks
2n3 & 3rd ........4.54 picks

 

So 1/5 top 5 QB's is a bust, 2/3ish are GOLD, after that the odds significantly decrease and 50ish% of those taken after that are busts. These odds get worse the longer you wait, clearly. This team has kicked the QB can down the road for decades, why wait any longer?

 

With the right trade they can get their QB of the future (franchise if you will), still have quality picks in the 2nd and 3rd round and their entire 2019 draft intact... We can have nice things, learn from the past and play the odds in our favor in a draft made for our biggest need, while still addressing other needs in the draft and not affecting the future. How do they not?

•  

[maryland-bills-fan]

36 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

1.  NFL history shows the vast majority of successful QBs are among the first 2-3 drafted in any given year.

 

2.  NFL history shows that drafting success rates steadily decrease from the Top 5, to the Top 10, to the last half of the 1st Round, to the early 2nd Round, and so on.  By the 4th or 5th Round, it's almost impossible to even find a marginal starter.

 

 

Some of the fans on this board are unbelievable.  After what this franchise has endured for the last two decades, many of you would STILL prefer to go the safe route.  You would prefer to let the 3rd, 4th or 5th option fall to us - rather than get the pick of the litter in a strong QB class, JUST so we can have another Linebacker or Receiver on the roster. 

 

 

Well if it was only another LB or WR on the roster, I would absolutely agree. You can get those from the non-drafted college graduates.  But that is not the case. We are talking about 3-5 players drafted in the first 3 rounds, which are most often starting players.

[Da webster guy]

31 minutes ago, JXCOL3 said:

I am so sick of being in QB purgatory. Trade whatever you have to in order to get the QB they want. It is the only thing we have not done as an organization in 2 decades and I am so tired of finishing in the middle of the pack with some scrub QB. Lets try something new!!!

yes and if u hit on the qb you have him for a dozen years, most other positions you get your guy for his rookie deal and some other team overpays him in free agency 4 or 5 years later.    if you get a franchise qb you dont let him go.    

Also a significantly longer career average for qb's than any other position.  Twice the average. 

[maryland-bills-fan]

11 minutes ago, P51 said:

There are 3 QB's this year worth (IMO) drafting in the top 5; Mayfield, Rosen and Darnonld given their skill sets. A bunch of vet QB's signed 1 or 2 year deals with teams that need LONG term solutions (including Buffalo, N.Y. Giants and L.A. Chargers as well with vet QB's) as JM57 pointed out:

 

Not a single deal signed or acquired by a QB needy team between would preclude those teams from taking a QB. Every single one was short term deal. Let's revisit.

Browns (#1/4) - Tyrod Taylor: 1 year, $10 million

Broncos (#5) - Case Keenum: 2 years, $36 million

Jets (#6) - Josh McCown: 1 year, $10 million and Teddy Bridgewater: 1 year, up to $15 million

Cardinals (#15) - Sam Bradford: 1 year, $20 million

 

Look at those long term deals! Sitting on your hands and waiting to see what comes to you is a surefire way to have other teams who have the same desire for a QB to jump you.

 

Buffalo has the ammunition to Jump into the 2nd or 3rd spot and still have a fairly normal draft with 2nd and 3rd round picks still in hand, whats so hard? How do they not do it?

 

SEL #	TEAM	PLAYER	POSITION	SCHOOL
1	Baltimore Colts	John Elway	QB	Stanford
2	Los Angeles Rams	Eric Dickerson	RB	Southern Methodist
3	Seattle Seahawks	Curt Warner	RB	Penn State
4	Denver Broncos	Chris Hinton	G	Northwestern
5	San Diego Chargers	Billy Ray Smith Jr.	LB	Arkansas

 

How many of these players made it to the Super Bowl, besides the Bronco's (w/Elway), none of these teams made it to the Super Bowl in the greatest QB draft of all time, passing on QB's in the top 5. Would the Rams, Seachix, Chargers or even Bronco's in hindsight take Kelly or Marino? They'd be stupid not too. I'd bet in hindsight (which I hate BTW) the Colts would take Marino and let Elway slide given his Chosen Rosen like attitude or speaking his mind and even stating that he would not or prefer to not play for a given team.

 

Given the higher success rate of picking in the top 5, with prospects worthy of such a pick (again IMO), why would McBeane and Co. sit on their hands and not use foresight and their available resources to do so? There is already a realist chance that 4 QB's will be gone by pick 6. These QB's are rated that high by not only myself but many others. This kind of draft happens what, once every 35 years?

 

TOP 3 PICKS

• 64% GOLD
• 15% GREEN
• 21% RED …………………………………………{ ONE out of FIVE top 3 QB picks is a BUST !!!  that is a lot of wasted draft horsepower}

How many times to you have to draft a QB in those spots to get a GOLD QB? (= 100 /  %chance)
top 3  ..............1.56 picks
rest of 1st ......3.03 picks
2n3 & 3rd ........4.54 picks

 

So 1/5 top 5 QB's is a bust, 2/3ish are GOLD, after that the odds significantly decrease and 50ish% of those taken after that are busts. These odds get worse the longer you wait, clearly. This team has kicked the QB can down the road for decades, why wait any longer?

 

With the right trade they can get their QB of the future (franchise if you will), still have quality picks in the 2nd and 3rd round and their entire 2019 draft intact... We can have nice things, learn from the past and play the odds in our favor in a draft made for our biggest need, while still addressing other needs in the draft and not affecting the future. How do they not?

•  

I get greedy when I see the guys we could draft this year with 6 picks in the first three rounds........

[wppete]

Have a feeling we are either trading for #2 or #3 this year. Rosen or Darnold. 

[Big Turk]

This is as stupid a statement as they come.

 

Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Derek Carr, Jim Kelly, Ben Roethlesberger, and Aaron Rodgers all disagree with you.

 

 

[RochesterRob]

47 minutes ago, P51 said:

There are 3 QB's this year worth (IMO) drafting in the top 5; Mayfield, Rosen and Darnonld given their skill sets. A bunch of vet QB's signed 1 or 2 year deals with teams that need LONG term solutions (including Buffalo, N.Y. Giants and L.A. Chargers as well with vet QB's) as JM57 pointed out:

 

Not a single deal signed or acquired by a QB needy team between would preclude those teams from taking a QB. Every single one was short term deal. Let's revisit.

Browns (#1/4) - Tyrod Taylor: 1 year, $10 million

Broncos (#5) - Case Keenum: 2 years, $36 million

Jets (#6) - Josh McCown: 1 year, $10 million and Teddy Bridgewater: 1 year, up to $15 million

Cardinals (#15) - Sam Bradford: 1 year, $20 million

 

Look at those long term deals! Sitting on your hands and waiting to see what comes to you is a surefire way to have other teams who have the same desire for a QB to jump you.

 

Buffalo has the ammunition to Jump into the 2nd or 3rd spot and still have a fairly normal draft with 2nd and 3rd round picks still in hand, whats so hard? How do they not do it?

 

SEL #	TEAM	PLAYER	POSITION	SCHOOL
1	Baltimore Colts	John Elway	QB	Stanford
2	Los Angeles Rams	Eric Dickerson	RB	Southern Methodist
3	Seattle Seahawks	Curt Warner	RB	Penn State
4	Denver Broncos	Chris Hinton	G	Northwestern
5	San Diego Chargers	Billy Ray Smith Jr.	LB	Arkansas

 

How many of these players made it to the Super Bowl, besides the Bronco's (w/Elway), none of these teams made it to the Super Bowl in the greatest QB draft of all time, passing on QB's in the top 5. Would the Rams, Seachix, Chargers or even Bronco's in hindsight take Kelly or Marino? They'd be stupid not too. I'd bet in hindsight (which I hate BTW) the Colts would take Marino and let Elway slide given his Chosen Rosen like attitude or speaking his mind and even stating that he would not or prefer to not play for a given team.

 

Given the higher success rate of picking in the top 5, with prospects worthy of such a pick (again IMO), why would McBeane and Co. sit on their hands and not use foresight and their available resources to do so? There is already a realist chance that 4 QB's will be gone by pick 6. These QB's are rated that high by not only myself but many others. This kind of draft happens what, once every 35 years?

 

TOP 3 PICKS

• 64% GOLD
• 15% GREEN
• 21% RED …………………………………………{ ONE out of FIVE top 3 QB picks is a BUST !!!  that is a lot of wasted draft horsepower}

How many times to you have to draft a QB in those spots to get a GOLD QB? (= 100 /  %chance)
top 3  ..............1.56 picks
rest of 1st ......3.03 picks
2n3 & 3rd ........4.54 picks

 

So 1/5 top 5 QB's is a bust, 2/3ish are GOLD, after that the odds significantly decrease and 50ish% of those taken after that are busts. These odds get worse the longer you wait, clearly. This team has kicked the QB can down the road for decades, why wait any longer?

 

With the right trade they can get their QB of the future (franchise if you will), still have quality picks in the 2nd and 3rd round and their entire 2019 draft intact... We can have nice things, learn from the past and play the odds in our favor in a draft made for our biggest need, while still addressing other needs in the draft and not affecting the future. How do they not?

•  

  The evaluation that the pro's use to evaluate the QB prospects is the only one that matters.  It does not matter what you, me, some guy who runs a blog, or Kiper thinks.  Could be 4 off the board by pick 6 or it could be 2 by pick 6 or it could be 1 by pick 6.  I don't really get your top three analogy.  It seems a little arbitrary to me.  And it is only one sample.  I know the '83 draft was one of a kind but if you looked at 3 or 4 others that were similar would you still find that two out of the top three were studs in their pro careers?  What about '98 when QB's were 1-2 in that draft?  We have Manning then we have Leaf.  One will be a HOF-er and one during his first year in the league a person could see the flames of Leaf burning up from miles away.

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Deciding what is a successful QB and aligning that with their drafted position is a mushy piece of work.  I've tried that myself but found a better one here:

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/3/12/17108340/nfl-scouts-are-generally-correct-on-draft-qbs

 

He compares the first three picks with the rest of the first round and with the 2nd and 3rd round.  GOLD is what you want.

TOP 3 PICKS

• 64% GOLD
• 15% GREEN
• 21% RED …………………………………………{ ONE out of FIVE top 3 QB picks is a BUST !!!  that is a lot of wasted draft horsepower}

1st round

• 33% GOLD
• 16% GREEN
• 51% RED..........................................{about half are BUSTS)

2nd and 3rd round

• 22% GOLD
• 13% GREEN
• 65% RED

============================

working from the OP data you can estimate/guesttimate the following

=============================

How many times to you have to draft a QB in those spots to get a GOLD QB? (= 100 /  %chance)
top 3  ..............1.56 picks
rest of 1st ......3.03 picks
2n3 & 3rd ........4.54 picks

==========================================

and what is the draft-value cost for each GOLD success?

pick..............# of tries................median DTV ............................"expected cost" = {# picks} X {DTV cost}

top 3............. 1.56 picks............... 2600.................................... 4,056
rest of 1st..... 3.03 picks................ 875 ....................................2,651
2n3 & 3rd ......4.54 picks............... 265..................................... 1,203

 

It is expensive to go up to a top 3 pick- unless you are already there. AND even that is not a sure thing.

 

 

I can name 3 top 3 busts off the top of my head...JaMarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf and Akili Smith...I'd toss Vince Young in there too since he never became anything close to what people thought he would...so that makes 4...go check your numbers bro

[xsoldier54]

5 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I am thinking that all the shrill demands to move up to the top 3 are panic driven.  We could just stay at #12 and see what comes to us.   Moving to #2 would cost us at least:

#12 and #22 in the first round ,

#21 in the second round   (56 overall)

#1 in the third round  (65th overall)

 

leaving us with #2 in the first round,    overall #56 in the second round,   and #96 overall in the third round.  That is not very much to rebuild the offensive line, the wide receivers and the linebackers.

 

If we stay at #12 we would have 5 picks in the first three rounds:  overall #22,   #53,   #56,   #54  &  #96.    That is enough to rebuild these positions.  Realize that 5-6 high draft pick veteran QB;s have been picked up by other teams this year, so a few teams are probably not going to picking QB's before us.   Even in the first round, QB's are still a crap-shoot.  I think that it is a wiser strategy to be sure of restocking the weak positions and also taking a slightly less good shot at a QB.

 

I don't think it would cost that much.  The two firsts and  second round pick should get us into the top 5.  If not, stay put and take what you get at 12.

[Batman1876]

I agree they should wait and take a QB they think is pretty ok. Chances are it won’t work out but then whoever gets the job after they are fired can take another shot. That guy probably won’t work out either but eventually after a couple of coaching regimes and a couple GMs the team will eventually get a decent QB and they will have spent less draft capital. We just need to be patient wait another 15 years, it will all work out eventually. 

[mjt328]

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Well if it was only another LB or WR on the roster, I would absolutely agree. You can get those from the non-drafted college graduates.  But that is not the case. We are talking about 3-5 players drafted in the first 3 rounds, which are most often starting players.

 

I would rather have a Top 10 quarterback and a mediocre roster, than a mediocre quarterback and an elite roster.

The only teams who have been able to MAINTAIN success for a lengthy period of time are those with TOP quarterbacks.

 

Teams like Jacksonville are going to max out in 1-2 years.  That franchise (especially the defense) is absolutely LOADED with talent.  But their quarterback is sub-standard.  By 2019-2020, the salary cap is going to catch up and they will be forced to purge a good chunk of the roster.  Unless Blake Bortles takes a major step forward next year, that franchise will completely waste the opportunity.  That is their window for success without a quarterback.

 

The Colts have a terrible roster.  But if Andrew Luck comes back healthy this year, they will be right in the middle of the playoff race.  With even a little bit of talent, they have a much better chance at sustained/long-term success than Jacksonville.  Until Luck is done, they will always have a shot.

 

[P51]

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I get greedy when I see the guys we could draft this year with 6 picks in the first three rounds........

 

I hear that, ideally (my greed) I would have liked to have signed Cousins and used the draft picks to fill in the roster with talent. I just dont see how they pass on these particular QB's given the need, nor do I see how they secure one of the top talents sitting at 12. I wish the Bills could be greedy and use those picks and hope and prey a QB they want falls to them.