hondo in seattle Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 This year's Pro Bowl QBs: AFC Tom Brady 6th rd Ben Roethlisberter 1st rd (Pick 11) Philip Rivers 1st rd (Pick 4) Alex Smith 1st rd (Pick 1) Derek Carr 2nd rd NFC Carson Wentz 1st rd (Pick 2) Russell Wilson 3rd rd Drew Brees 2nd rd Jared Goff 1st rd (Pick 1) On average, a Pro Bowl QB is drafted in the 2nd round. Nearly half (4 of 9) of Pro Bowl QBs were drafted with one of the first five picks of the draft. 5 of 9 Pro Bowl QBs were drafted in the first round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillnutinHouston Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said: I am not arguing that the Bills don't have ammo to improve the overall roster, but the notion that they have some awesome amount of picks that will let them trade up to get any QB that they want is fallacious. Who has promulgated that fallacious notion? I'm not hearing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, BillnutinHouston said: Who has promulgated that fallacious notion? I'm not hearing that. There's a lot of hope that we somehow upgrade the QB position. But most of the informed speculation out there says we won't draft one of the top QBs exactly because we don't have enough ammunition. That's why there's been so much guesswork about what FA or trade-available QB we'll go after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Draft capital is pretty simple. It takes an interested party but everyone pretty much uses the same chart. That’s why it doesn’t vary a lot. Here is the chart that teams are using recently: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virgil Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Jones, Dawkins, Milano all drafted after round 1. Yes, draft capitol is real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadLandsMeanie Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 This is like saying money can't buy you happiness. It can't. But it is better to be rich and sad than poor and sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman1876 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Our extra 2nd and 1st could be packaged with our original 1st to get us into the top 5. We would still retain 7 picks in that scenario. That seems like good capital to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RochesterRob Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 16 minutes ago, Batman1876 said: Our extra 2nd and 1st could be packaged with our original 1st to get us into the top 5. We would still retain 7 picks in that scenario. That seems like good capital to me. But all those picks are in the bottom half of each round. Not the same as offering a top 10 pick in each round and will be discounted accordingly. Throw Jimmy Johnson's guide in the bottom desk drawer as it will not be relevant this spring. Teams like the Giants and Colts know there are a fair number of potential trade partners out there interested in a QB so they are not going to fire sale their top picks. If the QB's are as good as people here seem to think they are it will take a lot of convincing i.e. premium draft choices to convince the top sitting teams to move out of their slots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnBonhamRocks Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 I personally see Rosen/Darnold/Mayfield as the Big 3, and the new chart says we can trade #21, #22 and Glenn to get up to #3 overall and ensure we get one. Totally worth it. Then you still have two 2nd round picks, the rest of the draft, and over $30 million in cap space to fill out WR/OG/DT/LB/CB. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fadingpain Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 3 hours ago, hondo in seattle said: We get four picks in the first two rounds. Good personnel guys can do a lot with that. But you're right: we don't have the draft position to land a top notch QB. And if we do trade up to nab a QB, it'll be at the cost of a lot of that 'draft capital.' And we have so many positional needs, any package to get up into the top 5 will mean we'll have several unplugged roster holes after the draft. Screw the positional needs; we made the playoffs with Tyrod Taylor as the QB. Can you imagine what me might achieve if we had a real QB who can throw the ball!? I'm all in favor of doing whatever it takes to get the "top" QB prospect on our board, if at all feasible. It all begins with the QB, and ends with the QB. Everything else is not as important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 To the OP You can look at it that way if you want.....just keep in mind that we had a latter round 1st round pick last year (that got us an additional 1st rounder this year) that turned into T. White.......who was just a wonderful player for us this year. To me....its not "where" the picks are in the rounds....it is how good is your scouting department in finding the talent that is not considered "elite" For instance The scouting reports on Tre White is that he was the best pure cover corner in the draft (in a strong draft for corners) but for some reason the reports on him made him a average run support defender......but it looks like the bills dug a little deeper and found a player that fit our system perfectly. Its not where we pick.....its how many chances we get to pick and doing the homework on the players Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 (edited) 30 minutes ago, Fadingpain said: Screw the positional needs; we made the playoffs with Tyrod Taylor as the QB. Can you imagine what me might achieve if we had a real QB who can throw the ball!? I'm all in favor of doing whatever it takes to get the "top" QB prospect on our board, if at all feasible. It all begins with the QB, and ends with the QB. Everything else is not as important. Well Nick Foles just won the SB, so not sure that argument is as accurate as you think. And 3 of the final 4 QB's were Keenum, Foles, and Bortles. Not one fits your description of a QB. I dont disagree that a QB is important, and I want to find a great one too, but considering the 4 best QB's in the NFL today all came from picks later than both our first round picks, I don't think there is a case that one must mortgage the farm to get a prospect. In the last 19 years (since the year 2000), only 4 Super Bowls were won by a QB drafted in the top 10...and it was really just 2 guys, and both had the last name Manning. And the 2nd one that Peyton won, he was one the worst rated passers in the NFL that year and nearly lost his job for good to Brock...and he was the worst individual QB performance in SB history for a winning QB. Edited February 9, 2018 by Alphadawg7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said: HOF players are drafted in all rounds and even signed as UDFA. This notion great prospects aren't available at 21 and 22 or in the 2nd round is nuts. Teams COVET those picks. So unless you think the brightest minds in all of football now and history are all wrong in the fact that great players are found regularly with those picks, then this post is misguided. Look at the general consensus on the 4 best QB's in the NFL today...none taken earlier than 24th pick and only 1 in the first round. Rogers, Brees (2nd round), Wilson (3rd round), Brady (6th round). So, sorry but your post is waaaaay off. We have great draft resources for a playoff team. compared to our usual draft slots — we might be softer even with the extra picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, NoSaint said: We have great draft resources for a playoff team. compared to our usual draft slots — we might be softer even with the extra picks. Yeah, fantastic resources for a team that made the playoffs. We also have like the 5th or 6th most cap space going into FA I believe too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Just now, Alphadawg7 said: Yeah, fantastic resources for a team that made the playoffs. We also have like the 5th or 6th most cap space going into FA I believe too. Cap is little to no worry for us generally speaking. There’s a large segment here that’s conditioned to being told we can’t have nice things.... but we’ve never actually been in trouble with cap I’m not sure which is more predictable- the “we can’t afford that” posts in February or the “how did those teams in cap trouble afford that” in March 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 25 minutes ago, NoSaint said: Cap is little to no worry for us generally speaking. There’s a large segment here that’s conditioned to being told we can’t have nice things.... but we’ve never actually been in trouble with cap I’m not sure which is more predictable- the “we can’t afford that” posts in February or the “how did those teams in cap trouble afford that” in March Ha so true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillsGospel Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 (edited) 4 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said: There is a LOT of hype about haw draft capital rich the Bills are this year. Looking at the Bills’ picks this year, it seems that they are a lot poorer than the hype. in round 1, Bills picks 21st and 22nd. Neither pick is a prime selection. *Maybe* a trade of both picks gets them high enough to get a good QB prospect. in round 2, both picks are in the bottom third of the round. All of the exciting players who might be left till round 2 will be long gone by the Bills’ 2 late picks in this round. The Bills’ own pick in round 3 was traded for Kelvin Benjamin- like that trade... BUT the remaining “draft capital “ in round 3 is the very LAST pick of the round. It is unlikely that pickbis finding a long-term contributor. Round 4 may give a shot at a mid-level contributor for a few years and the 5th round picks are fairly long shots to ever be a contributor. Bottom line, I don’t see a QB in this draft worth trading the farm for. So far this offseason, I have no reason to believe that any of Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph are any worse prospect than Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Mayfield. With the the recognition that waiting until 21 might get them shut out of the QB derby, I can’t see a powerful case to pay a lot to trade up... I'm sorry man I hate to call out someone on an opinion that differs from mine but this is just bad all around. It doesn't matter where you pick it matters who you pick, if any team already knew who the dominant players they'd all go before we even had a shot. The key is to find the correct players for your schemes and hopefully they turn out to be great in the end. You state " you don't see a QB trading the farm for", what credentials do you have to evaluate the QB position? Professionals who do this for a living have a hard time evaluating and you just know? Can I ask how you came to this conclusion? Which games you watched that made you right this thread? Edited February 9, 2018 by BuffaloBillsGospel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dadonkadonk Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 The OP's entire premise is backwards. The draft lottery is about the number of bits at the apple not where you bite it. Trade down. Get more picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FearLess Price Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 2 hours ago, JohnBonhamRocks said: I personally see Rosen/Darnold/Mayfield as the Big 3, and the new chart says we can trade #21, #22 and Glenn to get up to #3 overall and ensure we get one. Totally worth it. Then you still have two 2nd round picks, the rest of the draft, and over $30 million in cap space to fill out WR/OG/DT/LB/CB. Right. Lets grab Mayfield and we still have 2 2nds a 3rd a 4th and a 5th. Thats still 5 picks on top of a franchise QBs. That and FA should set us up nice for next year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan4 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 4 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said: I am not arguing that the Bills don't have ammo to improve the overall roster, but the notion that they have some awesome amount of picks that will let them trade up to get any QB that they want is fallacious. Further, their selections in round 2 and especially round 3 are underwhelming. I totally agree about the trading up for a QB part. But don't you think it's a little early to say that their selections in round 2 and 3 are underwhelming? Would you be underehelmed if the Bills added 2 more players the caliber of Dion Dawkins with their two 2nd round picks? Dawkins was taken with the 2nd to last pick of the 2nd round and I think that looks like a very good pick so far. He stepped right in as a rookie at LT and more than held his own. Or what if they use those two 2nd round picks, or one 2nd + the 3rd, to trade up and draft some highly rated player that fell in the draft? I get what you're saying about the picks not being as high as we'd all maybe like, but I just think it's too early to be disappointed or underwhelmed or whatever. Let's wait and see what happens first. McDermott and Beane were both a big part of drafting Josh Norman in the 5th round, and McDermott obviously played a big role in his development into one of the top CB's in the NFL. I know that's not the norm for a 5th rounder, but good players are found all over the draft every year. This past draft McDermott looks to have found contributing players with every single pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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