What's Plan C for QB?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

I was arguing that he might play out the year and walk if we draft a guy, so he has some control of his future, rather than sign, then get traded in a year or two if we have a young guy

 

Good, so I understood you and I was disagreeing.  I was saying that a 33 yr old guy would likely prefer to play on a multi-year contract so he has some protection if he gets hurt; also, any well-run team signing a 33 year old guy is going to want to draft a young guy and develop him.  Smith has to realize that.

[Just Joshin']

2 hours ago, cba fan said:

100% right.

 

In fact virtually all the dead cap was Bean's doing.

Technically true since he made the trade.  However the root cause is the previous bad contracts.

[SouthNYfan]

20 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Good, so I understood you and I was disagreeing.  I was saying that a 33 yr old guy would likely prefer to play on a multi-year contract so he has some protection if he gets hurt; also, any well-run team signing a 33 year old guy is going to want to draft a young guy and develop him.  Smith has to realize that.

 

That's fair.

 

I mean I think he should realize that, although who knows, right?

[Ga boy]

6 hours ago, horned dogs said:

I think the Bills Wire draft is more like Plan D.

 

Plan A sign FA (Cousins)

Plan B trade for (Smith, Keenum, Luck) etc.

Plan C trade up for the guy you like (Rosen, Mayfield) etc.

Plan D Tyrod, with a project draft like (White)

Plan Z start Nate Peterman, release TT and go with Savior Peterman plan

 

The reason I think McBeane like plan A and B is they can then retain draft capital to restock SOME positional needs. They will of course have to give a higher pick up depending on who you're trading for.

Cousins is definitely Plan A b/c we make a run at the trophy

Plan B is Smith or Bridgewater and we get to playoffs

Plan C is Bradford and maybe get to playoffs

Plan D is  trade this year's 1s and next year's 1 to get Rosen, Allen, Mayfield, Darnold, etc and miss the playoffs by having a team that looks like the Colts

Plan No Way is stay put with TT and/or NP without one of Plans A,B,C or D.

 

[stuvian]

I would not be upset if we keep TT although it's not what I expect.

 

I don't want any of the Vikings QBs. Case Keenum was a nice story but I don't think he's a renaissance man a la Rich Gannon.

 

Between Cousins, Smith and McCarron we will have options on the veteran market. 

 

If we stay where we are in the first round we will get a shot at at least one of Jackson, Rudolph or Allen. 

 

I'm keeping an eye on what the Giants do with Davis Webb

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/12208/davis-webb

 

[The Frankish Reich]

3 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

They aren’t going to sell low. That’s the point. He is either ready to go (3 1sts) or he stays there and they hope he improves. You don’t take a top 10 QB and dump him for peanuts. You can’t throw out a lowball offer and hope they bite. You aren’t buying a foreclosed on house.

 

Glenn has positive trade value if healthy. It’s the same situation. No one is trading for him if they don’t like his medical. If they do, he has value and they have a massive need on the OL. They (and a bunch of teams) would gladly plug him in if healthy. If he isn’t you are stuck with him or you cut him.

You also don't squander the opportunity to draft your third consecutive franchise QB when your second franchise QB is hurt

[Kirby Jackson]

12 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

You also don't squander the opportunity to draft your third consecutive franchise QB when your second franchise QB is hurt

The 3rd pick is the only reason that Luck could be auctioned off. There will be a ton of interest if he’s made available (and healthy). If he isn’t recovered he will be still be there and the Colts will hope that his condition gets better. The Colts hold all of the cards. 

[The Frankish Reich]

30 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The 3rd pick is the only reason that Luck could be auctioned off. There will be a ton of interest if he’s made available (and healthy). If he isn’t recovered he will be still be there and the Colts will hope that his condition gets better. The Colts hold all of the cards. 

The Colts' problem: as with Peyton, they probably won't know Luck's true condition soon enough. If they trade him this spring, another team takes on the risk that he won't make it all the way back (or to be realistic, at least 90% back?). If the Colts keep him and it turns out to be the worst case scenario - another surgery, or simply greatly diminished arm strength with or without surgery - he becomes untradeable with that contract. If I'm the Colts' GM, given that my team, even with Luck, is probably at least a couple seasons away from competing, I'm inclined to shift that risk onto another team, draft a QB, and replenish the roster with yet another high pick or two.

[26CornerBlitz]

38 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The 3rd pick is the only reason that Luck could be auctioned off. There will be a ton of interest if he’s made available (and healthy). If he isn’t recovered he will be still be there and the Colts will hope that his condition gets better. The Colts hold all of the cards. 

 

I don't believe McDaniels takes the Colts job if Luck's health is a big question mark. 

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/indianapolis-colts/post/_/id/22661/pressure-is-on-colts-gm-chris-ballard-now-that-hes-landed-josh-mcdaniels-as-coach

 

Ballard will have nearly $85 million in salary-cap space -- third most in the NFL -- to work with in free agency and the No. 3 overall pick in April's draft. The Colts are working under the assumption that they’ll have a healthy Andrew Luck (shoulder), who missed the entire 2017 season. There’s no excuse for the team not to be a better next season.

[Kirby Jackson]

32 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

The Colts' problem: as with Peyton, they probably won't know Luck's true condition soon enough. If they trade him this spring, another team takes on the risk that he won't make it all the way back (or to be realistic, at least 90% back?). If the Colts keep him and it turns out to be the worst case scenario - another surgery, or simply greatly diminished arm strength with or without surgery - he becomes untradeable with that contract. If I'm the Colts' GM, given that my team, even with Luck, is probably at least a couple seasons away from competing, I'm inclined to shift that risk onto another team, draft a QB, and replenish the roster with yet another high pick or two.

The problem is that as soon as he is on the block it becomes a bidding war. If he is healthy someone is going to pay a fortune. If the Colts are worried about his health no one is going to make the deal. If the Colts are willing to give you Luck for just 1 1st it’s because he will never get better. Teams aren’t stupid. No one is going to do that. He’s either healthy enough to be his old self or he isn’t. Damaged Luck isn’t changing teams. The reality is that there is a very little chance that he is anywhere but under Center opening day. McDaniels isn’t taking that job with a damaged Luck. 

[1SBwinB4Idie]

If all the other popular options had been exhausted, meaning we didn't land Cousins, Smith or any of the Minnesota QB's and we couldn't or wouldn't move up to get one of the top QB's in the draft would you be OK with a trade for Brissett as a stop gap?

[Wily Dog]

50 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

I don't believe McDaniels takes the Colts job if Luck's health is a big question mark. 

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/indianapolis-colts/post/_/id/22661/pressure-is-on-colts-gm-chris-ballard-now-that-hes-landed-josh-mcdaniels-as-coach

 

Ballard will have nearly $85 million in salary-cap space -- third most in the NFL -- to work with in free agency and the No. 3 overall pick in April's draft. The Colts are working under the assumption that they’ll have a healthy Andrew Luck (shoulder), who missed the entire 2017 season. There’s no excuse for the team not to be a better next season.

I agree , along with the fact that the Colts are pretty well set a QB with Jacoby Brissett ,who McDaniels is intimately familiar with, from New England.This is saying that Luck may need some more time recouping.

[TigerJ]

I think the Bills probably realize they aren't going to get a sniff of Darnold, and I don't think they are crazy about Rosen (who is also going to be drafted too high for Buffalo to consider. Josh Allen is a long shot but maybe not quite as long as Darnold.  Among more realistic possibilities, Buffalo will be looking and a veteran who is capable of starting: Alex Smith, Nick Foles, or maybe a Vikings cast off.  Depending on who it is, the Bills could outright name him as starter or set up a competition in training camp with Nate Peterman.  If the Bills are not able to sign a veteran that they feel can at least compete to start, they will probably be down to a decision to either plan on starting Peterman or paying Tyrod his bonus.  At the same time, I think Buffalo is going to draft a QB somewhere in the draft.  I think Buffalo probably sees retaining Tyrod as a near desperation move, but any GM worth his pay has to anticipate every possible circumstance, and have a contingency plan ready for it.

[The Frankish Reich]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The problem is that as soon as he is on the block it becomes a bidding war. If he is healthy someone is going to pay a fortune. If the Colts are worried about his health no one is going to make the deal. If the Colts are willing to give you Luck for just 1 1st it’s because he will never get better. Teams aren’t stupid. No one is going to do that. He’s either healthy enough to be his old self or he isn’t. Damaged Luck isn’t changing teams. The reality is that there is a very little chance that he is anywhere but under Center opening day. McDaniels isn’t taking that job with a damaged Luck. 

No offense, but this is just plain wrong. Luck had a torn labrum, and it obviously wasn't an easily repairable one. He had his surgery over a year ago. He never recovered sufficiently to even play in a game this year. He started throwing, then shut it down because of pain. If he were a baseball pitcher with the same injury and spotty recovery, the majority expert opinion would be that he'll probably never be the same again. Here's just one of many articles on the subject:

http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/how-often-do-pitchers-recover-from-labrum-injuries-r4827

The pitcher featured in this article was the Twins closer, Glen Perkins. He went down with a labrum tear in June 2016. He made it back for 8 games last season, and it wasn't pretty: velocity down from 94-95 to right around 90 (and it's actually a couple mph worse than that since the way pitcher velocity is measured added a couple ticks between 2016 and 2017). That's just one example. You'll find many, many more. Here's an older article:  http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2004/05/labrum_it_nearly_killed_him.html  -

 

"The leading minds in baseball medicine are flummoxed by the labrum. Doctors can't agree on how to detect a tear, don't know the best way to fix one, and aren't sure why, almost without fail, a torn labrum will destroy a pitcher's career.

Leading baseball surgeon Dr. James Andrews estimates that 85 percent of pitchers make a full recovery after an ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction, aka the once risky Tommy John surgery. (USA Today has even called the surgery the "pitcher's best friend.") But if pitchers with torn labrums were horses, they'd be destroyed. Of the 36 major-league hurlers diagnosed with labrum tears in the last five years, only midlevel reliever Rocky Biddle has returned to his previous level. Think about that when your favorite pitcher comes down with labrum trouble: He has a 3 percent chance of becoming Rocky Biddle. More likely, he'll turn into Mike Harkey, Robert Person, or Jim Parque, pitchers who lost stamina and velocity—and a major-league career—when their labrums began to fray."

 

QBs are not pitchers - the stress on the throwing shoulder is far less, and they're not throwing 100 passes (not counting side sessions and warm ups) every 5th day over the course of six or seven months. And guys like Drew Brees (who obviously lost velocity after his labrum injury) learned to adjust and become better than before. Others with more minor surgery (Cam Newton) seemed not to miss a beat.  But Luck's case has already moved into the "serious cause for concern" category, and at this point, his prognosis will be far from clear by the time the Colts (or other suitors) will have to make a significant commitment to him. If I'm the Cards or Broncos GM, I'm willing (after getting all the information I can in March) to pull the trigger and deal for him. Those are teams that were perfectly competitive but held back by bad QB play, and they're otherwise still within their competitive window. If I'm Beane, I'm intrigued. The timing doesn't seem quite right for the Bills, but if Luck never makes it back you're probably straight into full rebuild mode by 2019, and that's not so different from where they are anyway. But if I'm the Colts, there's a huge opportunity cost in passing on a top QB draft pick, particularly since they're really in no place to contend right away.  Luck's value is greatly diminished right now, and the Colts would be idiots to assume the risk of his surgery just plain failing.

[Freddie's Dead]

 

[The Frankish Reich]

35 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

 

 You know what? We talk about veteran stopgaps to bring in, blah, blah, blah ... But is there really anything to recommend a Josh McCown over Fitzy? The rule seems to be that a mediocre journeyman only gets one shot with each time.  

[Freddie's Dead]

2 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

 You know what? We talk about veteran stopgaps to bring in, blah, blah, blah ... But is there really anything to recommend a Josh McCown over Fitzy? The rule seems to be that a mediocre journeyman only gets one shot with each time.  

 

I always wonder where we would have been if we hadn't run Fitz outta town and then drafted EJ.

[2003Contenders]

So many things to consider...

 

First, the Bills are in a bit of a catch 22 because they have no assurance of what QBs will be available to them in the draft (whether they trade up or not). Moreover, since free agency starts almost  2 months before the draft, their Plan A would have to be based on chronology rather than desire.

 

Hence, Plan A would be to sign a proven starting QB in free agency (Cousins, Alex Smith, whichever Viking QB is available, etc.) with part of that plan to also include drafting a long-term QB.

 

Plan B would be in the event that the team is unable to sign a solid veteran in free agency. I would have to think that the plan would then be to go all out for Darnold/Mayfield/whichever QB they prefer in the draft.

 

In the event that they are unable to draft the QB of choice, then I think that is where Plan C comes in. In that case, I would look to draft BPA at QB (Jackson, White, Faulk or whomever) in the appropriate round in the hopes of catching lightening in the bottle -- and also bringing in the best option still available in free agency. That could mean hanging on to Tyrod. That's why I would not get rid of Tyrod WITHOUT having a better option under contract first.

[Zerovoltz]

I don't think you will be seeing Luck traded, for all the reasons mentioned already....I think everyone will be surprised when Alex Smith ends up with the Colts.  If you are the Colts and you are waiting to see if Luck can or can't come back, are you really going to use that 3rd overall draft pick on a franchise QB?  Are you going run Jacoby Brissett back out there and try and sell tickets?  (yes McDaniels knows him)  ....they could trade for Smith and his one year of control.  That buys them time to evaluate Luck, or for Luck to get another surgery etc.  If Luck is finished, you could then sign Smith to an extension....it would be his team (something smith wants) and you are ok at QB for 4-5 years and can spend all of that time finding the next one.  Or, if Luck comes back and he's ready to go, you thank Smith for his time and trouble, he becomes a free agent and probably finds himself very much in demand still.  Indy could then trade out of 3 this year, load up on picks and go forward.  

 

As a Chiefs fan, It is entertaining reading all the different view points about what to do at QB for the Bills....lots of opinions.  My opinion is that you were in position at 10 last year and missed on Mahomes. (and maybe Watson) 

 

In my biased opinion, you could have taken Mahomes (or maybe Watson) at 10 last year instead of trading out.  Now you'll have to expend serious draft capital to move up to 3 or 4 to do essentially the same thing a year later......and you have to hope that whoever you take, is someone they think more highly of than they thought of Mahomes or Watson last year.  

 

I'm not saying it won't work out etc...but seems like quite a bit more involved and risky trying to move up now as opposed to staying in place last season.

 

I honestly hope you get something good and I'll be rooting for you and watching intently on draft day.

[SoTier]

14 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

They played with the same players. If you didn’t like the time that he had the same has to be the case for Taylor. Also, no one gets better from watching a guy!! Ha ha, that’s absurd.

 

The questions about Peterman coming out we’re in regards to accuracy, arm strength and how he handled pressure. When he has played in NFL games those issues have been magnified. He has been atrocious under pressure, he doesn’t have the arm strength or accuracy to fit the ball in tigh spots. So he completed 49% of the passes to his guys and over 10% to the other guys. 

 

Obviously, no one knows what the future holds but he looks like the exact player scouts feared. That’s why he went in the 5th. Also, he was considered one of the most pro-ready. That was a pro for him. He wasn’t some raw prospect like Cardale that was 2 years away from being able to get on the field. Peterman is smart and can get through progressions. He was close to a finished product coming out. He’s just not very good and won’t be starting anywhere. 5th round QBs come and go in this league all of the time. Hell, the Saints used a top 75 pick on Garrett Grayson and cut him after 1 year. It isn’t insane at all to write off a guy that stinks.

 

You are not going to convince the diehards that Peterman is a dud.  Hell, his own incompetence won't even convince some of them that he's not pro material.  If the Bills drafted him, they must have seen his "potential" because the Bills have demonstrated their unerring ability to find "QB diamonds in the rough".