What's Plan C for QB?

[SouthNYfan]

28 minutes ago, horned dogs said:

I think the Bills Wire draft is more like Plan D.

 

Plan A sign FA (Cousins)

Plan B trade for (Smith, Keenum, Luck) etc.

Plan C trade up for the guy you like (Rosen, Mayfield) etc.

Plan D Tyrod, with a project draft like (White)

Plan Z start Nate Peterman, release TT and go with Savior Peterman plan

 

The reason I think McBeane like plan A and B is they can then retain draft capital to restock SOME positional needs. They will of course have to give a higher pick up depending on who you're trading for.

 

Keenum is a free agent.

I'm not sure what "trade for keenum" means.

I don't know why anybody wants luck.

Do a little research into his shoulder injury timeline.

 

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Obviously it would need a thorough checking out before you sign off on a trade for him. 

 

If the colts are willing to trade Luck then his shoulder isn't stable.

You don't trade a franchise QB if you're sure he's healthy.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

59 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

If Tyrod is retained I think that they draft a guy by Round 2. Maybe it is Rudolph or Jackson? With FA being before the draft I think that we have a sense for how aggressive they will be based on the veteran that they have. If they land Cousins they probably take a guy a little later with some upside. If it is anyone else I expect the Bills to take a QB in the 1st 2 rounds. 

 

Also, I know we have talked a lot about Alex Smith and I am starting to think that isn’t really an option. Beane is constantly talking about finding “a franchise QB.” Alex Smith is the definition of a solid vet. I don’t see the Bills being convinced that is him. 

 

The Bills will likely have a placeholder vet and an early pick QB. I’d say that is 65%, I’d say a trade way up is 25%, Cousins is 8% and Luck at 2%. 

 

Alex Smith is not a franchise QB, but he's the guy you can play while you develop the franchise prospect and let him adjust to the NFL, if you draft a rookie.

I don't see us being able to trade up for Rosen or Darnold and if I'm reading the tea leaves correctly, everyone else is a bit of a project or at least a need to adjust.

 

The Bills have got to stop underpaying for QB.  Smith's salary is a lot to pay for a solid vet, sure, but what are the alternatives?

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Obviously it would need a thorough checking out before you sign off on a trade for him. 

 

That'd be by the same guys who thoroughly checked out Shaq Lawson's shoulder and told us it wasn't a problem?

[The Frankish Reich]

17 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I am with this.  Outside of making a full court press for Cousins, I would like to see them go for a veteran QB who is known to be able to play - Smith is my first choice - while taking the most talented QB we can reasonably get in the draft.  

 

I would not be OK with putting our QB eggs in a high injury risk pool - Luck, Bridgewater, Bradford.  I had no idea how severe Luck's injuries were or how complicated his recovery.  The fact that he went off seeking alternative treatments in Europe is a bit scary.  Bridgewater's injury was so severe and rare that there's really not much track record to go by, but I wasn't that impressed by his QB chops before the injury.  Bradford, breaking team hopes and fan hearts since 2013 with his knees.  That is a strategy you employ if you have a decent alternative.  Like, um, Keenum or McCown in which case .....just go for Keenum or McCown.

Agreed. But there is a difference in the risk. If you sign Bradford or Bridgewater, you're getting them for the market rate. Baked into that market rate cake is the fact that one had a devastating knee injury with no real road map for recovery, and the other has had a series of serious knee injuries such that he should be considered a ticking time bomb. That means something like a 2-year contract, or a longer deal that gives the team an out after a couple years.  Luck, on the other hand, is your big high risk/high reward guy. That was a contract signed under the assumption that the Colts were getting the prime years of a healthy franchise QB. You're on the hook through 2021. There's an early out after 2019, but that would come with a $13 million dead cap hit. But given how infrequently franchise (or "sub-franchise/2nd tier") QBs come onto the open market - basically never (see the market for Kirk Cousins, clearly not a QB the quality of a healthy Luck), it's a calculated risk some team would, and probably should, take. Is that team the Bills? Probably not in Beane's estimation, because to be honest this team's real competitive window opens in 2020; even if Luck comes back as 90% of his former self, you're probably not going to accomplish anything more than a 2017-ish wild card run with him. On the other hand, the Bills have less to lose than most similar teams. It's not like we'd be giving up on the ability to draft a Darnold/Rosen, and we certainly wouldn't have to give up on any other good QB already on the roster.  

 

So my shocking conclusion: if Luck could be had for, say, a 3rd rounder (or even a 2nd rounder), and if a physical/workout shows that his shoulder appears reasonably sound, I'd do it.  Worst case scenario: it's a disaster and Nathan Peterman (or some 2018 4th rounder) has to start. Which is kind of where we may be headed anyway. Best case scenario: you just snagged a franchise QB at what is now a sub-market rate, and you've got him locked up through 2021.

Edited January 28, 2018 by The Frankish Reich

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Sign Bradford or McCown and draft someone like Rudolph, White, or Lauletta.  That way you don't throw away two number ones to move up since you have too many other holes to fix.  If Taylor remains on this team it exemplifies that we're not making progress.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

I don’t think Smith is an option either.  They aren’t paying Mahomes much, so they can afford both. 

 

You sure about that "afford" thing?  Go look at KC's salary cap.  See that red number in brackets near the top on the right?

That's $8.5M over the cap.

 

They need to meet the cap by the first day of the new league year as I understand it.  How they gonna do that?  Go.

 

 

9 minutes ago, Formerly Allan in MD said:

Sign Bradford or McCown and draft someone like Rudolph, White, or Lauletta.  That way you don't throw away two number ones to move up since you have too many other holes to fix.  If Taylor remains on this team it exemplifies that we're not making progress.

 

I don't want Bradford because I still have to step over knee-induced broken hearts on St Louis fan sidewalks.  (Maybe he should hit Kobe for the doc contacts in Europe where they're better at these things )  I would like them to make a play for Cousins, but realistically if I'm Cousins I'm looking at Minn, Denver, or 'Zona as teams that are on a more direct path to championship - 'Zona especially if I put in a phone call to Larry Fitzgerald and he says "sure".

 

Overall I think you've got the right, realistic strategy.  Sign the best capable veteran we can get our hands on.  I don't care if he's "overpaid".  Then take a shot at a quality QB we can achieve in the draft either where we are, or with a modest trade-up.  Develop him as best we can, and if we're not satisfied by his progress, take another shot next year.  If a better vet becomes available through FA or trade next year, go there too. 

 

Just put the resources into the QB position that it deserves for a change.

 

Edited January 28, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[Kirby Jackson]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Alex Smith is not a franchise QB, but he's the guy you can play while you develop the franchise prospect and let him adjust to the NFL, if you draft a rookie.

I don't see us being able to trade up for Rosen or Darnold and if I'm reading the tea leaves correctly, everyone else is a bit of a project or at least a need to adjust.

 

The Bills have got to stop underpaying for QB.  Smith's salary is a lot to pay for a solid vet, sure, but what are the alternatives?

 

That'd be by the same guys who thoroughly checked out Shaq Lawson's shoulder and told us it wasn't a problem?

Smith will cost you AT LEAST a 3rd and a cap hit of over $29M when you add in the dead cap from releasing Tyrod. That doesn’t seem like a route that Beane will go. He wants a franchise guy. IMO, Cousins, Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold and Luck are the 5 guys that meet that. Some are easier to do than others but I’d expect one of those guys or a placeholder vet. Smith doesn’t check that box for me as he is $29M plus a 3rd (minimum). 

[The Frankish Reich]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Smith will cost you AT LEAST a 3rd and a cap hit of over $29M when you add in the dead cap from releasing Tyrod. That doesn’t seem like a route that Beane will go. He wants a franchise guy. IMO, Cousins, Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold and Luck are the 5 guys that meet that. Some are easier to do than others but I’d expect one of those guys or a placeholder vet. Smith doesn’t check that box for me as he is $29M plus a 3rd (minimum). 

That's why I'd much rather try to trade for Andrew Luck (assuming a physical/workout shows at least reasonable confidence that he'll be back) than for Alex Smith. And I absolutely believe the Colts will be open to offers. With the 3rd overall pick they are sure to have at least two of Rosen-Darnold-Mayfield-Allen right there for the picking.

[Kirby Jackson]

3 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

That's why I'd much rather try to trade for Andrew Luck (assuming a physical/workout shows at least reasonable confidence that he'll be back) than for Alex Smith. And I absolutely believe the Colts will be open to offers. With the 3rd overall pick they are sure to have at least two of Rosen-Darnold-Mayfield-Allen right there for the picking.

The only difference is that Luck is going to cost 3 1sts vs. a 3rd for Smith.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Smith will cost you AT LEAST a 3rd and a cap hit of over $29M when you add in the dead cap from releasing Tyrod. That doesn’t seem like a route that Beane will go. He wants a franchise guy. IMO, Cousins, Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold and Luck are the 5 guys that meet that. Some are easier to do than others but I’d expect one of those guys or a placeholder vet. Smith doesn’t check that box for me as he is $29M plus a 3rd (minimum). 

 

Not sure where you're getting $29M?  Smith $17M salary, potentially less if we offer him an extension.  Tyrod $7.6M if someone else signs him and pays him at least $1M (likely).  Total $24.6M.  Yes, that's high dollar, but it's not $29M either, and as I said, we can reduce that with a contract extension.

 

Of course Beane wants a franchise guy, but he and McDermott have also said they want to win now and in the future.  No QB draftee is a sure bet as a franchise guy.  Rosen and Darnold may be the highest probability.  Realistically, the odds of our getting the opportunity to find out are hella small, but aside from that, you need a solid vet to assure you have someone to play if the rookie is not quite ready, and to provide all the good stuff a vet provides.

 

If you really want a franchise QB and not have to pay for a solid vet bridge/mentor, you're going to have to go after Cousins.

 

I expressed my views on Luck elsewhere.   It's not clear he's gonna be available, and it's not clear what you're getting if he is, to go with his high salary.  Very high risk.

Edited January 28, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[JaCrispy]

1 hour ago, JinxedBill1 said:

Probably Tyrod is the correct answer as worst case scenario as this would be.

 

I would be very upset if they failed to upgrade the QB position with such a rich QB FA period and draft.  I fully expect them to sign a veteran QB like Smith and draft a young talent like Rudolph 

Tyrod?!? Haha...wrong answer McFly 

[John from Riverside]

Plan C is probably TT

 

I dont think we are gettin to plan C.

1 hour ago, xRUSHx said:

Zero chance Rudolph or Jackson are still available in rd2 IMO. SMH 

If OBD again waits around for a QB to fall to them in the draft it will equal the same fail in finding one IMO. We all want to think this new staff is different but if it is the same waiting game as so many years past it will be the same results. So sick of this team always waiting to get the scraps left after other teams have eaten all the good stuff.

 

As for if Tyrod many including myself want him gone. IMO many fans want to move on from having a QB teams scoff at about how they won big because they made our QB be a QB. I am so done with that. He is not worth half that contract IMO.

 

Enough of the Rex hand picked QB.

Swear to christ sometimes I want to see them keep Tyrod just to listen to you cry some more.....

 

They are not going to....hopefully that qb does not become your new fixation

[BillsFan4]

1 hour ago, Limeaid said:

Be honest - some of the salary cap mess is result of current team.

Yes, much of the dead cap this season is from the new regime, but I look at it as them cleaning up the cap mess left by the old regime. IMO, a 7-9 team that hadn't made the playoffs in almost 2 centuries should not have been at the salary cap ceiling. That should be a problem you have once you're a winning team/super bowl contender and you have to pay all the guys who got you there, not a team struggling to break .500 every year. 

 

This year will be rough as far as the cap goes, but by 2019 they should be in much better shape. 

 

54 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I'll go out on a limb: no way Tyrod is back. They signaled that when Peterman took over for him. It won't be the Dennison system anymore, but it will be whatever Daboll installs, and that will not be a Tyrod-friendly offense.

 

Thats what I think as well. They haven't given Tyrod much of any vote of confidence. They didn't hesitate on saying they want back their 34yr old free agent defensive tackle  considering retirement (Kyle), but when it came to their starting QB they were pretty evasive and non commital. There have been a lot of signs that they are looking to move on from Tyrod. 

 

I think they will try try their best to address the QB position this offseason, through the draft and free agency/trade. What exactly they do, I don't know. But I do feel pretty confident that they will try their best to do something.

 

If all else fails, I could see Tyrod back though. But I think that is probably a ways down their list of options. 

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Not sure where you're getting $29M?  Smith $17M salary, potentially less if we offer him an extension.  Tyrod $7.6M if someone else signs him and pays him at least $1M (likely).  Total $24.6M.  Yes, that's high dollar, but it's not $29M either, and as I said, we can reduce that with a contract extension.

 

Of course Beane wants a franchise guy, but he and McDermott have also said they want to win now and in the future.  No QB draftee is a sure bet as a franchise guy.  Rosen and Darnold may be the highest probability.  Realistically, the odds of our getting the opportunity to find out are hella small, but aside from that, you need a solid vet to assure you have someone to play if the rookie is not quite ready, and to provide all the good stuff a vet provides.

 

If you really want a franchise QB and not have to pay for a solid vet bridge/mentor, you're going to have to go after Cousins.

 

I expressed my views on Luck elsewhere.   It's not clear he's gonna be available, and it's not clear what you're getting if he is, to go with his high salary.  Very high risk.

Smith’s cap hit in 2018 in $20.6M, the dead space from Tyrod is $8.64M. That’s $29.24M plus whatever you traded for him. 

 

I’d rather move up for Rosen, Mayfield or Darnold.

[The Frankish Reich]

7 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The only difference is that Luck is going to cost 3 1sts vs. a 3rd for Smith.

That's what a demonstrably healthy Andrew Luck would cost. That's not the case. There's huge risk here, and that would push down the cost to something much more affordable. We don't know what it would be yet, but right now I don't think anyone would give up more than a mid-1st for him, maybe less. And even with that it still makes sense for the Colts to do it.

[K-9]

It’s all plan A. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

13 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Smith will cost you AT LEAST a 3rd and a cap hit of over $29M when you add in the dead cap from releasing Tyrod. That doesn’t seem like a route that Beane will go. He wants a franchise guy. IMO, Cousins, Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold and Luck are the 5 guys that meet that. Some are easier to do than others but I’d expect one of those guys or a placeholder vet. Smith doesn’t check that box for me as he is $29M plus a 3rd (minimum). 

I agree with this, these guys are the Tier 1 guys so to speak. The best things about Cousins are that you'd only have to spend money, and if you believe he's a potential franchise guy you do it. And, he's proven in the NFL that he can do a TOP 10 job at QB. The best thing about the young guys is they hit you less in the wallet, which I don't think is the Bills problem going forward. I suppose you could argue that Rosen and/or Darnold may have a bit higher ceiling too. Luck, if healthy, Is the most intriguing guy because he has proven he can carry a team, again if healthy.

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

With a GM who may not want to give up the farm to trade up and a salary cap space that's needed with a huge amount of UFA's, what's the plan for if we aren't able to snag someone in FA or the draft who can compete for the starting job.

 

Let's just assume that the Bills want in on ALL top QB's available.  Cousins could easily go for a price tag outside of where we are willing to go.  Two of the three Qb's in Minnesota are likely to be retained, but it's very well possible that we don't land the leftover.  If they keep Keenum and Bridgewater, we may not even want Bradford.  

 

Then, let's say the Rosen, Mayfield, and Darnold all go in the top 3-5 picks and we couldn't get a deal done to move up.  

 

I don't think any of those scenario's are unrealistic at all.  So what then?  Do we actually keep Tyrod and get someone in the later rounds we hope develops and wait until next year when there is less QB competition?  

 

Basically, what would plan C need to include to make you optimistic about our offense next year if we can't land the top 3 guys at QB or FA QB's?

By the way, NICE TOPIC Virgil!

[Kirby Jackson]

4 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

That's what a demonstrably healthy Andrew Luck would cost. That's not the case. There's huge risk here, and that would push down the cost to something much more affordable. We don't know what it would be yet, but right now I don't think anyone would give up more than a mid-1st for him, maybe less. And even with that it still makes sense for the Colts to do it.

They would NEVER deal him for that. If they would take less than 3 1sts it’s because he will never be healthy and no one will pay it. If he is traded it’s because the team believes that he is healthy and that will be the cost. 

[xRUSHx]

2 minutes ago, John from Hemet said:

Plan C is probably TT

 

I dont think we are gettin to plan C.

Swear to christ sometimes I want to see them keep Tyrod just to listen to you cry some more.....

 

They are not going to....hopefully that qb does not become your new fixation

Maybe if the million threads that come up about QBs would not include options about keeping Tyrod you would not have to hear the other side of it. 

[BillsFan4]

11 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Smith’s cap hit in 2018 in $20.6M, the dead space from Tyrod is $8.64M. That’s $29.24M plus whatever you traded for him. 

 

I’d rather move up for Rosen, Mayfield or Darnold.

I thought Kansas City retained $3.6M of Smith's 2018 cap hit if he were traded? 

 

Also, I'd imagine that the Bills would possibly try to negotiate a short contract extension with Smith if they traded for him, which would allow them to potentially lower his cap hit in 2018. 

[xRUSHx]

6 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

I thought Kansas City retained $3.6M of Smith's 2018 cap hit if he were traded? 

 

Also, I'd imagine that the Bills would possibly try to negotiate a short contract extension with Smith if they traded for him, which would allow them to potentially lower his cap hit in 2018. 

I think you are right about cap hit. I also think last year they asked about Smith and KC said no to it but they said ok to 2018 trade of him. So when they made the trade they already had a deal for a trade for Smith this coming off season to give them there draft pick back or depending on how well Smith does in 2017 a lower pick as long as Smith resigns a new deal with us in 2018. JMO

Edited January 28, 2018 by xRUSHx