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transplantbillsfan

1st & 2nd down is the biggest reason Dennison's gone... here's your proof

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https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=all&role=rusher&year_min=2017&year_max=2017&game_type=R&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&quarter[]=1&quarter[]=2&quarter[]=3&quarter[]=4&quarter[]=5&tr_gtlt=lt&minutes=15&seconds=0&down[]=1&down[]=2&yg_gtlt=lt&yards=0&field_pos_min_field=team&field_pos_max_field=team&end_field_pos_min_field=team&end_field_pos_max_field=team&type[]=RUSH&no_play=N&turnover_type[]=interception&turnover_type[]=fumble&score_type[]=touchdown&score_type[]=field_goal&score_type[]=safety&rush_direction[]=LE&rush_direction[]=LT&rush_direction[]=LG&rush_direction[]=M&rush_direction[]=RG&rush_direction[]=RT&rush_direction[]=RE&order_by=game_date

 

Guys, I'm really sorry if you feel this didn't deserve it's own thread, but I gotta give a shout out to twoandfourteen who revealed to me the incredible intricacies of pro-football-reference as a resource.

 

Thanks dude :thumbsup: 

It took some tinkering, but I always suspected Buffalo's offensive playcalling was so predictable that it ended up giving us more "stuffed" runs on 1st or 2nd downs than any other team in the NFL. It was just a suspicion of mine, though.

I could never track it.


Well, here you have it. I narrowed my search parameters to "In 2017, any team vs. any team, in the regular season, play type is rush, on 1st or 2nd down, gain of fewer than 0 yards, sorted by game date descending."

The Bills had the most rushes for less than or equal to 0 yards on 1st or 2nd down.

Those of you who don't want to click on the link... the Bills had the most "stuffed" runs of any other team in the NFL. The top 5 are:

1) Buffalo - 115
2) Minny - 112
3) NYJ - 106
4) Seattle - 105
5) Chicago - 101

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1 minute ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

but they were great on 3rd down conversions

 

 

 

 

so glad rico is gone. taylor next please.

 

Does he get credit for that? 

The biggest reason he was fired is because we didn’t score enough points.  

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I swear in our playoff game almost every offensive series culminated in a 3rd down. It was maddening to watch. You can only convert so many 3rd downs, eventually you have to get in front of the sticks on earlier downs. Good research and this was probably a big factor in why Dennison is gone.

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Thanks for the info.  I hate when people take the time to research and  provide valuable information to other interested posters, then get criticized for creating their own thread for it.  I would rather have a thing like this have its own thread than see it get lost in some 25 page thread and miss out on reading it.  Sometimes quality posts and information deserve their own thread even if it is closely related to an existing thread.

Edited by K-GunJimKelly12
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I felt throughout the season that every positive play was followed up with a loss of 3 to 5 yards. I couldn't remember a team I had ever seen with so many negative plays.

 

Every drive seemed to have a series like this:

15 yard pass or run for a first down. Run for -3 yards. Incomplete pass on 2nd down. Incomplete pass, sack, or screen to Tolbert for no gain on 3rd and 13.

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44 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

but they were great on 3rd down conversions

 

 

 

 

so glad rico is gone. taylor next please.

 

Well, we need to upgrade on Taylor, but I don't know that we can't be critical of Dennison on 3rd down, too.

 

Yes, The Bills were 6th in the NFL in 3rd down conversions with a 41.9% conversion rate.  We converted 101 out of 241 3rd down attempts.

 

The Bills were also tied with Denver for the most 3rd down attempts in the NFL, which could be the result of the most stuffed runs on 1st and 2nd down.

 

 

And the reality is that the Bills were just 27/79 (34.2%) on 3rd down plays where Taylor was just handing the ball off or the Bills were in Wildcat or Peterman was playing because, on the year, Taylor was 74/162  (45.7%) in converting 3rd downs via run or pass.

 

3 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Also, fwiw, we tied for the most 3rd down attempts in the league with Denver, and converted the most 3rd downs in the league this year. Finished 6th in conversion %.

 

You beat me to it  :flirt:

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Thanks man, interesting stuff.  Can you easily extract % of total run vs pass attempts per 1st and 2nd regardless of yardage? I tried, my phone no lika da link...

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I blame Castillo and our OL.  No running plays work on 1st down when Shady has a guy on his back before he gets back to the LOS.

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=all&role=rusher&year_min=2017&year_max=2017&game_type=R&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&quarter[]=1&quarter[]=2&quarter[]=3&quarter[]=4&quarter[]=5&tr_gtlt=lt&minutes=15&seconds=0&down[]=1&down[]=2&yg_gtlt=lt&yards=0&field_pos_min_field=team&field_pos_max_field=team&end_field_pos_min_field=team&end_field_pos_max_field=team&type[]=RUSH&no_play=N&turnover_type[]=interception&turnover_type[]=fumble&score_type[]=touchdown&score_type[]=field_goal&score_type[]=safety&rush_direction[]=LE&rush_direction[]=LT&rush_direction[]=LG&rush_direction[]=M&rush_direction[]=RG&rush_direction[]=RT&rush_direction[]=RE&order_by=game_date

 

Guys, I'm really sorry if you feel this didn't deserve it's own thread, but I gotta give a shout out to twoandfourteen who revealed to me the incredible intricacies of pro-football-reference as a resource.

 

Thanks dude :thumbsup: 

It took some tinkering, but I always suspected Buffalo's offensive playcalling was so predictable that it ended up giving us more "stuffed" runs on 1st or 2nd downs than any other team in the NFL. It was just a suspicion of mine, though.

I could never track it.


Well, here you have it. I narrowed my search parameters to "In 2017, any team vs. any team, in the regular season, play type is rush, on 1st or 2nd down, gain of fewer than 0 yards, sorted by game date descending."

The Bills had the most rushes for less than or equal to 0 yards on 1st or 2nd down.

Those of you who don't want to click on the link... the Bills had the most "stuffed" runs of any other team in the NFL. The top 5 are:

1) Buffalo - 115
2) Minny - 112
3) NYJ - 106
4) Seattle - 105
5) Chicago - 101

Interestingly enough, the Bills were 14th in the NFL of rushes of 5+ yards on first or second down.

Edited by jmc12290

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Fascinating stuff.

 

Not that we did a lot of this - but it does include kneeldowns.  I turned kneeldowns off and we still led the league on offense with 102.

 

What I also found as a positive stat - as the "defense" - we were tied for 6th with 84 stops for 0 or less on 1st/2nd down, excluding kneeldowns.

 

 

Edited by MTBill
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47 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Well, we need to upgrade on Taylor, but I don't know that we can't be critical of Dennison on 3rd down, too.

 

Yes, The Bills were 6th in the NFL in 3rd down conversions with a 41.9% conversion rate.  We converted 101 out of 241 3rd down attempts.

 

The Bills were also tied with Denver for the most 3rd down attempts in the NFL, which could be the result of the most stuffed runs on 1st and 2nd down.

 

 

And the reality is that the Bills were just 27/79 (34.2%) on 3rd down plays where Taylor was just handing the ball off or the Bills were in Wildcat or Peterman was playing because, on the year, Taylor was 74/162  (45.7%) in converting 3rd downs via run or pass.

 

 

You beat me to it  :flirt:

 

 

good stuff. I was kind of being a smart ass but seriously, good discussion and even better knowing now that we are speaking of the OC in past tense.

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2 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I've been trying to find average distance to gain on 3rd down by team, but can't quite nail it down. I'd imagine the results are similar.

A very in depth article on 3rd down.

 

Then we have the case of Tyrod Taylor, whom Buffalo benched this week. Taylor actually ranked 10th in conversion rate (42.4 percent) even though he had the fourth-highest need yards (8.7). His ALEX dropped to -0.1 this season, ranked 29th. We've seen this continued change in Taylor's game. In his first season with Buffalo, his ALEX was +4.5, which ranked second in the NFL. It dropped to +2.3 in 2016, but still good enough for seventh in the league, and he was better at converting plays. Taylor's conversion rate was actually a career best this year, but alas he is benched after the Bills allowed 81 points in two losses. A big problem this year was the massive changes at wide receiver. Taylor was targeting running back LeSean McCoy more than anyone on third down, and those 16 targets produced a -10.9 ALEX. In 2016, Taylor's go-to targets on third down were deep threats Marquise Goodwin (+6.2 ALEX) and Sammy Watkins (+7.1 ALEX). Both of those receivers, as well as Robert Woods (+1.4 ALEX), are in the NFC West this year.

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/alex/2017/2017-alex-midseason-report

 

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1 hour ago, jmc12290 said:

I blame Castillo and our OL.  No running plays work on 1st down when Shady has a guy on his back before he gets back to the LOS.

Interestingly enough, the Bills were 14th in the NFL of rushes of 5+ yards on first or second down.

Interesting on how stats can collide like that and not make sense.  Like I think we were one of the worst on 3 and outs but one of the best at converting 3rd downs.

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54 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

A very in depth article on 3rd down.

 

Then we have the case of Tyrod Taylor, whom Buffalo benched this week. Taylor actually ranked 10th in conversion rate (42.4 percent) even though he had the fourth-highest need yards (8.7). His ALEX dropped to -0.1 this season, ranked 29th. We've seen this continued change in Taylor's game. In his first season with Buffalo, his ALEX was +4.5, which ranked second in the NFL. It dropped to +2.3 in 2016, but still good enough for seventh in the league, and he was better at converting plays. Taylor's conversion rate was actually a career best this year, but alas he is benched after the Bills allowed 81 points in two losses. A big problem this year was the massive changes at wide receiver. Taylor was targeting running back LeSean McCoy more than anyone on third down, and those 16 targets produced a -10.9 ALEX. In 2016, Taylor's go-to targets on third down were deep threats Marquise Goodwin (+6.2 ALEX) and Sammy Watkins (+7.1 ALEX). Both of those receivers, as well as Robert Woods (+1.4 ALEX), are in the NFC West this year.

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/alex/2017/2017-alex-midseason-report

 

 

ALEX Smith will come to take his job next.  

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1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Well, we need to upgrade on Taylor, but I don't know that we can't be critical of Dennison on 3rd down, too.

 

Yes, The Bills were 6th in the NFL in 3rd down conversions with a 41.9% conversion rate.  We converted 101 out of 241 3rd down attempts.

 

The Bills were also tied with Denver for the most 3rd down attempts in the NFL, which could be the result of the most stuffed runs on 1st and 2nd down.

 

 

And the reality is that the Bills were just 27/79 (34.2%) on 3rd down plays where Taylor was just handing the ball off or the Bills were in Wildcat or Peterman was playing because, on the year, Taylor was 74/162  (45.7%) in converting 3rd downs via run or pass.

 

 

You beat me to it  :flirt:

We went to 3rd downs too often and too quick......this can be attributed to various reasons however since we are speaking of Dennision his playcalling was atrocious to say the least.....i for one am over the moon he is gone.....I can sympathize with those broncos fans that were callinig for his dismisal!

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3 hours ago, K-GunJimKelly12 said:

Thanks for the info.  I hate when people take the time to research and  provide valuable information to other interested posters, then get criticized for creating their own thread for it.  I would rather have a thing like this have its own thread than see it get lost in some 25 page thread and miss out on reading it.  Sometimes quality posts and information deserve their own thread even if it is closely related to an existing thread.

Agreed.  Very interesting stuff. 

At the risk of being the guy who's too lazy to do the research himself but has no problem criticizing the guy who did ... obviously we run more than just about any other team. Any idea how it looks as a percentage rather than the raw number?

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1 hour ago, 8-8 Forever? said:

whatever,  he's gone.  new QB , new OC next year.  all good.  trust the process

Well he isn't gone yet.  I think they will move on too, but then... I thought that last season.

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