Taylor's value in 2017 was mostly about 2 things, one being 3rd down

[Happy]

11 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

This is why our 2nd half offense was so putrid.

The opposing defense makes changes, we can't adapt.

We scored 2....just 2 offensive TD's in the 2nd half in our last 6 games.

 

This doesn't say anything good about Dennison.  By not adapting to the opposing defense adjustments, Dennison is either lazy, arrogant, or not the most knowledgeable OC out there.  I'll go with the last choice.

A lot of posters make the offensive futility a Tyrod problem; he's part of the problem, but Dennison is certainly no solution.

[Maine-iac]

18 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

This is why our 2nd half offense was so putrid.

The opposing defense makes changes, we can't adapt.

We scored 2....just 2 offensive TD's in the 2nd half in our last 6 games.

Yet only lost 2 of those games.  Both to the Pats.  We scored a ton of points in the second half of the Chargers game.  Having nothing to do with QB's do you see what I'm getting at?  We have the lead and they run and we haven't been running particualarly well.  Even less so when they predict we will be running.  Then we end up in 3rd and 12 and people complain about a check down.  New QB or Taylor back it makes little difference if we are winning games I think you will see the same type of thing next year.  If the defense is even better and the running game hits it's stride again then hopefully we are winning more games and we run it out in the second half better.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

You don’t buy “McDermotts super duper Extra conservative master gameplan” was the reason for not scoring points when up one score ?     ?

I need to research this again.  

 

I am pretty sure McDermott addressed the lack of late gamer TD's.    Therefore in my eyes he sees it as an issue to be fixed.  Now we get into the logistics. 

 

Is it coaching or turtling by the QB.  

[The Frankish Reich]

9 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The other was obviously protecting the football.

 

 

But first of all, let's get the little disclaimer out of the way: Taylor is not an elite QB. He's not a top 10 QB. And he won't be the franchise QB for the Buffalo Bills.

 

If we have the ability to clearly upgrade on Taylor, I don't think anyone would see that as a problem. And it seems pretty clear that 0BD will be actively trying to upgrade on him this offseason. If 2017 wasn't Taylor's last year and Buffalo, 2018 almost certainly will be.

 

 

With all of that out-of-the-way, what I think Taylor seriously excelled (and why, combined with protecting the football, Taylor is valuable to a conservative coach like McDermott) at was third down. He was, in fact, one of the better QBs in the NFL as a whole on those Drive-extending plays. Part of that is shown in the fact that Buffalo has the sixth highest conversion percentage on third down in the NFL for 2017.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct

 

Yes, we ended up with the worst three and out percentage in the NFL. Yet, we were the sixth best and third down efficiency. Seems strange, huh?

 

Some of that has to do with the three games that we can think of that were absolutely horrid: the Panthers game, the Bengals game, the Saints game.

 

Otherwise, a lot of that has to do with what we do when we have a lead. We don't pass very much and we really barely pass with a 2+ score lead.

 

In all of Taylor's 14 total games (once you factor in essentially the half of the Saints game and the half of the patriots game),  just 26% of Taylor's throes of come when the bills were in the lead. Just 8.6% have come when the bills had a 2+ score lead.

 

This is not a mistake, it's part of McDermotts grand scheme and there are seven games in particular where this plan came into place: NYJ, DEN, @  ATL, OAK, @ KC, MIA x 2. And I think he was even extra conservative and three Road games we played, though maybe not the last one quite as much because of the desperation factor.

 

in those seven games, Dennison (probably at the request of McDermott) called 7 designed QB runs.

 

Only one was successful.

 

But all of this belies what actually happened, overall, on 3rd downs for the year; for the team as a whole but Taylor in particular.

 

Taylor was 12th in the NFL in 2017 and third down conversion percentage on third down passing plays (according to what the NFL teams as third down passing plays. ).

 

42.7% of these plays went for third-down conversions. And yes, that includes sacks.

 

That's up significantly from the 38.5% he converted in his first year as a starter.

 

 Yet, Taylor is more than just a passing QB. In fact, Taylor ran the ball 31 times on third downs in 2017. 18 of those were 1st down conversions.

 

When Taylor ran, he converted 58.1% of the time.

 

So, as a whole on the year, Taylor was actually 74/162, or 45.7% in converting 3rd downs.

 

And then there  are the passing plays that, for whatever reason, the NFL does not count in the net passing yards. These are plays where a QB is pressured, but instead of taking a sack (which would be included in net passing yards he escapes that sack) and gains positive yardage.

 

On these plays, Taylor was 13/19, or 68.4% in converting 1st downs.

 

So on what I think should be referred to as net passing plays, Taylor was converting 46% of his first downs. No, I'm not going to reslot him  because you would have to do that for every single QB and I just don't have the damn time, but I think just about anyone should be happy with a QB who converts first down on 46% of his third downs.

 

 

PS: For those of you wondering, Taylor scrambled 38 times for 294 yards (7.7 yards per scramble... this was about his average the last 2 years, too).

 

PPS: Taylor had 15 kneel downs for -16 yards so on rushes throughout the year, Taylor gained 443 yards on 69 runs. That's 6.4 YPC.

 

 

 

 

 

Good post.   I don't understand why every analytical post is always met with negativity. If you don't have something to contribute (supporting, perhaps refuting) the analysis, just don't feel the need to respond ....

[JerseyBills]

9 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The other was obviously protecting the football.

 

 

But first of all, let's get the little disclaimer out of the way: Taylor is not an elite QB. He's not a top 10 QB. And he won't be the franchise QB for the Buffalo Bills.

 

If we have the ability to clearly upgrade on Taylor, I don't think anyone would see that as a problem. And it seems pretty clear that 0BD will be actively trying to upgrade on him this offseason. If 2017 wasn't Taylor's last year and Buffalo, 2018 almost certainly will be.

 

 

With all of that out-of-the-way, what I think Taylor seriously excelled (and why, combined with protecting the football, Taylor is valuable to a conservative coach like McDermott) at was third down. He was, in fact, one of the better QBs in the NFL as a whole on those Drive-extending plays. Part of that is shown in the fact that Buffalo has the sixth highest conversion percentage on third down in the NFL for 2017.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct

 

Yes, we ended up with the worst three and out percentage in the NFL. Yet, we were the sixth best and third down efficiency. Seems strange, huh?

 

Some of that has to do with the three games that we can think of that were absolutely horrid: the Panthers game, the Bengals game, the Saints game.

 

Otherwise, a lot of that has to do with what we do when we have a lead. We don't pass very much and we really barely pass with a 2+ score lead.

 

In all of Taylor's 14 total games (once you factor in essentially the half of the Saints game and the half of the patriots game),  just 26% of Taylor's throes of come when the bills were in the lead. Just 8.6% have come when the bills had a 2+ score lead.

 

This is not a mistake, it's part of McDermotts grand scheme and there are seven games in particular where this plan came into place: NYJ, DEN, @  ATL, OAK, @ KC, MIA x 2. And I think he was even extra conservative and three Road games we played, though maybe not the last one quite as much because of the desperation factor.

 

in those seven games, Dennison (probably at the request of McDermott) called 7 designed QB runs.

 

Only one was successful.

 

But all of this belies what actually happened, overall, on 3rd downs for the year; for the team as a whole but Taylor in particular.

 

Taylor was 12th in the NFL in 2017 and third down conversion percentage on third down passing plays (according to what the NFL teams as third down passing plays. ).

 

42.7% of these plays went for third-down conversions. And yes, that includes sacks.

 

That's up significantly from the 38.5% he converted in his first year as a starter.

 

 Yet, Taylor is more than just a passing QB. In fact, Taylor ran the ball 31 times on third downs in 2017. 18 of those were 1st down conversions.

 

When Taylor ran, he converted 58.1% of the time.

 

So, as a whole on the year, Taylor was actually 74/162, or 45.7% in converting 3rd downs.

 

And then there  are the passing plays that, for whatever reason, the NFL does not count in the net passing yards. These are plays where a QB is pressured, but instead of taking a sack (which would be included in net passing yards he escapes that sack) and gains positive yardage.

 

On these plays, Taylor was 13/19, or 68.4% in converting 1st downs.

 

So on what I think should be referred to as net passing plays, Taylor was converting 46% of his first downs. No, I'm not going to reslot him  because you would have to do that for every single QB and I just don't have the damn time, but I think just about anyone should be happy with a QB who converts first down on 46% of his third downs.

 

 

PS: For those of you wondering, Taylor scrambled 38 times for 294 yards (7.7 yards per scramble... this was about his average the last 2 years, too).

 

PPS: Taylor had 15 kneel downs for -16 yards so on rushes throughout the year, Taylor gained 443 yards on 69 runs. That's 6.4 YPC.

 

 

 

 

 

Good point. I posted this in a Taylor thread , it really hit me in week 17 , watching the 3 other WC potential games , how much he extends drives. It's absolutely a major positive and he's been fantastic at it in the last 3 games, 4th in the league. I hope we don't let him go. Groom a rookie, but Taylor can and will cause a defense fits, can't wait to see how he responds Sun, the game comes down to him making plays imo

[BillsFan130]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

you can make an argument that Hauschka is one of the biggest reasons why we made the playoffs.

Ya He really is. If they didn’t have him, I don’t think they would have beat Atlanta and Denver 

[Royale with Cheese]

15 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Yet only lost 2 of those games.  Both to the Pats.  We scored a ton of points in the second half of the Chargers game.  Having nothing to do with QB's do you see what I'm getting at?  We have the lead and they run and we haven't been running particualarly well.  Even less so when they predict we will be running.  Then we end up in 3rd and 12 and people complain about a check down.  New QB or Taylor back it makes little difference if we are winning games I think you will see the same type of thing next year.  If the defense is even better and the running game hits it's stride again then hopefully we are winning more games and we run it out in the second half better.

 

I think it has everything to do with the QB.  This is why it's the most coveted position in all of sports.

If McDermott didn't see a problem with the offense, Taylor wouldn't have been benched.

15 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

I need to research this again.  

 

I am pretty sure McDermott addressed the lack of late gamer TD's.    Therefore in my eyes he sees it as an issue to be fixed.  Now we get into the logistics. 

 

Is it coaching or turtling by the QB.  

 

McDermott specifically said scoring is a problem.

[twoandfourteen]

9 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

But first of all, let's get the little disclaimer out of the way: Taylor is not an elite QB. He's not a top 10 QB.

 

I don't really have any issue with anything in your post. Nicely done. 

 

I'd only add that "Based on his limitations as a passer, he's barely in the top 30".

 

Your post is an excellent case to be made for Taylor being the one of the best backup QBs in the league. His value to a team with an elite starter, like Green Bay for example, would be the ability to steady the ship and keep things going until the starter was ready to come back. Taylor won't kill you with stupid turnovers and he will do just enough to put some points on the board to escape with 3 or 4 wins when needed. 

 

Again -- thanks for the good, informative post. 

[Royale with Cheese]

21 minutes ago, Happy Gilmore said:

 

This doesn't say anything good about Dennison.  By not adapting to the opposing defense adjustments, Dennison is either lazy, arrogant, or not the most knowledgeable OC out there.  I'll go with the last choice.

A lot of posters make the offensive futility a Tyrod problem; he's part of the problem, but Dennison is certainly no solution.

 

I don't think Dennison is anything to write home about but I also feel, IMO, he's limited with his playbook because of the QB.  

[Happy]

7 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I don't think Dennison is anything to write home about but I also feel, IMO, he's limited with his playbook because of the QB.  

 

With the type of offense he wants to run, I completely agree.  Tyrod and Dennison are not exactly a match made in heaven.

[Maine-iac]

3 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I think it has everything to do with the QB.  This is why it's the most coveted position in all of sports.

If McDermott didn't see a problem with the offense, Taylor wouldn't have been benched.

 

McDermott specifically said scoring is a problem.

Yet the game we are losing, they bring Taylor back in and score 17 points in the second half.   When we are predictably running and only throwing on third and long to a this group of pass catchers it's too easy to stop.  If the game is close they play it conservative.  It isn't going to matter who the QB is.  If we had a better QB we might hit on a few more 3rd and longs.  If we had a better 0C we might be better at running the ball.  If we had better WR's that wouldn't hurt either.  There's a number of different ways to improve upon the situation.   Either way there's no doubt in my mind if we are in close games or winning and Dennison is still the 0C we will see a lot of this.

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, Happy Gilmore said:

 

With the type of offense he wants to run, I completely agree.  Tyrod and Dennison are not exactly a match made in heaven.

 

Agreed.  They are not a good match.

1 minute ago, Maine-iac said:

Yet the game we are losing, they bring Taylor back in and score 17 points in the second half.   When we are predictably running and only throwing on third and long to a this group of pass catchers it's too easy to stop.  If the game is close they play it conservative.  It isn't going to matter who the QB is.  If we had a better QB we might hit on a few more 3rd and longs.  If we had a better 0C we might be better at running the ball.  If we had better WR's that wouldn't hurt either.  There's a number of different ways to improve upon the situation.   Either way there's no doubt in my mind if we are in close games or winning and Dennison is still the 0C we will see a lot of this.

 

We were down by 5 scores by the time Taylor came in.  The entire 2nd half was garbage time and I don't take anything from it.

Should we have made a big deal when Peterman came in the 2nd half and lead us to our only TD against the Saints?

 

We were 6th in the league in rushing and Shady was 4th in the league.

 

I think we play conservative on offense because we have a limited QB.  If we had a QB we could trust, we would throw a lot more.  It's obvious McDermott was unhappy with the passing production of the offense.

[Maine-iac]

5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Agreed.  They are not a good match.

 

We were down by 5 scores by the time Taylor came in.  The entire 2nd half was garbage time and I don't take anything from it.

Should we have made a big deal when Peterman came in the 2nd half and lead us to our only TD against the Saints?

 

We were 6th in the league in rushing and Shady was 4th in the league.

 

I think we play conservative on offense because we have a limited QB.  If we had a QB we could trust, we would throw a lot more.  It's obvious McDermott was unhappy with the passing production of the offense.

My point was that when we are not in a close game they open up the offense more, albeit against a defense that is playing not to lose.  Now if you are going to use that logic then when we play conservative in the second half and the other team is running it down our throats or Fales is throwing for 300 yards on us it's hard to argue that we should be scoring a lot.  Then you mention we are 6th in the league in rushing and Shady 4th both numbers which have nothing to do with scoring or specifically second halves.  If you take Taylor's rushing stats away we certainly aren't 6th in the league and outside of McCoy's second half TD against the Colts Shady isn't scoring and is in no way carrying the offense.  This is my last post here with this.  Taylor is conservative.  Dennison and McDermott are conservative.  The best case scenario for the three is a healthy KB and WR's that Taylor trusts throwing the ball to.  The next scenario is drafting a QB.  Can't argue with that.  If you think McDermott and Dennison playing a rookie QB is going to get you 400 points you may end up disappointed.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

44 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

We were down by 5 scores by the time Taylor came in.  The entire 2nd half was garbage time and I don't take anything from it.

Should we have made a big deal when Peterman came in the 2nd half and lead us to our only TD against the Saints?

 

We were 6th in the league in rushing and Shady was 4th in the league.

 

I think we play conservative on offense because we have a limited QB.  If we had a QB we could trust, we would throw a lot more.  It's obvious McDermott was unhappy with the passing production of the offense.

 

This is where people get discombobulated. 

 

The Taylorites want to use the argument in favor of their guy but not the other.   It's the EJ discussion all over again.  They will latch onto a single game and use it as their basis of fact.  Yet when we try to present that information to them, it rubs them wrong way and "tempers flare". 

 

We all have seen or discussed Taylor's games over the past 3 seasons.   He is exactly who he was in his scouting report.  

 

Nate sucked against the Chargers, EJ sucked against the Jags in London, but they  somehow forget the multiple  sub 50 QB ratings from TT.  

Edited January 3, 2018 by ShadyBillsFan

[twoandfourteen]

1 hour ago, Maine-iac said:

I know it will seems as though I'm out and out disagreeing with you and I'm not.  I will however ask that you look at Buffalo's stats, then go to recieving and look down that list.  You have Charles Clay and then you have what?  Essentially nobody.  Not taking away from Thompson.  I've been impressed with him.  I am by no means saying Taylor can not be improved upon but from a "helping your QB" standpoint the Bill's did Taylor no favors.  To their credit Mathews and KB got injured but essentially I'm saying I look at that list of receivers and say what did they expect?

 

Kirk Cousins put up 4000 yards with: 

• Jamison Crowder
• Terelle Pryor (for 9 games)
• Vernon Davis
• Josh Doctson
• Ryan Grant (who I honestly thought was the RB from Green Bay, but then realized that this is a different Ryan Grant)

CJ Beathard (204.3 yds/gm) & Jimmy Garappolo (260.0 yds/gm) put up better passing numbers with: 

• Marquise Goodwin
• Louis Murphy
• George Kittle
• Pierre Garcon (for 8 games)
• Trent Taylor
• Aldrick Robinson

Washed up, old Eli Manning went for 231.2 yds/gm throwing to: 

• Sterling Shepard
• Evan Engram
• Roger Lewis
• Tavarres King
• Odell Beckham (for 4 games)

 

Now, spare us all the microscopic breakdown of Louis Murphy vs Deonte Thompson. I don't really care. The point is that there are plenty of teams working with less-than-ideal WR/TE groups and they are able to somehow manage a functional and barely competent passing game. 

 

I don't think anyone wants or expects the "greatest show on turf" from Tyrod Taylor. But it's not too much to ask to hit a receiver in stride or maybe at least present the threat of a passing attack. He's started 43 games and 23 of them are under 200 yards passing. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 3, 2018 by twoandfourteen

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

My point was that when we are not in a close game they open up the offense more, albeit against a defense that is playing not to lose.  Now if you are going to use that logic then when we play conservative in the second half and the other team is running it down our throats or Fales is throwing for 300 yards on us it's hard to argue that we should be scoring a lot.  Then you mention we are 6th in the league in rushing and Shady 4th both numbers which have nothing to do with scoring or specifically second halves.  If you take Taylor's rushing stats away we certainly aren't 6th in the league and outside of McCoy's second half TD against the Colts Shady isn't scoring and is in no way carrying the offense.  This is my last post here with this.  Taylor is conservative.  Dennison and McDermott are conservative.  The best case scenario for the three is a healthy KB and WR's that Taylor trusts throwing the ball to.  The next scenario is drafting a QB.  Can't argue with that.  If you think McDermott and Dennison playing a rookie QB is going to get you 400 points you may end up disappointed.

Most if not all coaches want to play conservative on offense  with a lead, YET every single one of them will use a prevent Defense!! 

 

TT takes the conservative offense and doubles the "safeness" of it.  His over conservatism causes more trouble than it does good.  

 

The Jags (Marrones) coaching philosophy is in line with McDermotts.   Runt he ball, don't turn the ball over on offense and make create turnovers on Defense.  Why are people giving Marrone more credit than McDermott?   Because the Jags SOS is 1/4 less difficult than the Bills?  

 

[transplantbillsfan]

7 hours ago, xRUSHx said:

Haha, doesnt that average D score more then Tyrod most of the time.

 

Funny our NT had to come over and help on offense to get that TD. I wonder if he can play QB as well, more then likely would get more passing yards and less 3 and outs...lol

 

Ummm... nope, it doesn't.

[Royale with Cheese]

9 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

My point was that when we are not in a close game they open up the offense more, albeit against a defense that is playing not to lose.  Now if you are going to use that logic then when we play conservative in the second half and the other team is running it down our throats or Fales is throwing for 300 yards on us it's hard to argue that we should be scoring a lot.  Then you mention we are 6th in the league in rushing and Shady 4th both numbers which have nothing to do with scoring or specifically second halves.  If you take Taylor's rushing stats away we certainly aren't 6th in the league and outside of McCoy's second half TD against the Colts Shady isn't scoring and is in no way carrying the offense.  This is my last post here with this.  Taylor is conservative.  Dennison and McDermott are conservative.  The best case scenario for the three is a healthy KB and WR's that Taylor trusts throwing the ball to.  The next scenario is drafting a QB.  Can't argue with that.  If you think McDermott and Dennison playing a rookie QB is going to get you 400 points you may end up disappointed.

 

To the first bolded point, we scored 28 TD's all year.  That's on the offense.  It's not hard to argue.  We lead the league in 3 and outs.  If we didn't punt so much, we would have scored points.  We were 31st in passing and 6th in rushing....it's easy to see where the problem is.

 

How in the world does rushing and Shady have nothing to do with scoring?

 

I don't agree at all that's the best case.  I don't think it has anything to do with trust with Taylor throwing to WR, he just doesn't see them. 

Dennison said in camp Taylor needs to throw the ball on time.  Anthony Lynn said the same thing.  Multiple teams said they want to keep Taylor in the pocket to make him play QB because they know he is not good throwing from within the pocket.

 

3 different offensive coordinators have worked with Taylor and we never finished above 28th in passing.  Taylor is the problem moving the ball in the air.

[Mango]

This is not drilled down enough to really tell a story. 

 

What is our 3rd down conversation rate at 3rd and 5 or 6+, on clear passing downs?

 

Just my guess, but TT is not effective at converting 3rd and mid or longer comparatively to the rest of the league. The same as he isn't good with playing from behind. He does not excel in clear passing situations. 

 

 

[Maine-iac]

7 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

Most if not all coaches want to play conservative on offense  with a lead, YET every single one of them will use a prevent Defense!! 

 

TT takes the conservative offense and doubles the "safeness" of it.  His over conservatism causes more trouble than it does good.  

 

The Jags (Marrones) coaching philosophy is in line with McDermotts.   Runt he ball, don't turn the ball over on offense and make create turnovers on Defense.  Why are people giving Marrone more credit than McDermott?   Because the Jags SOS is 1/4 less difficult than the Bills?  

 

Yes, yes, and yes.  Watching us play prevent is some games drives me nuts.  This last Miami game was again pissing me off watching that defense.  Taylor is too conservative.  I don't hate him like some but I can't deny that.  Marrone had a much better pass rush and his defense is really good.  His running game also features a power back and scores a few more TD's.  I don't care what anyone says we miss Gillislee.  Not taking anything away from McCoy but Gillislee added that cut and go skip the east and west stuff that we need sometimes.  All that said I hope we beat them and Marrone can suck it.

3 minutes ago, Mango said:

This is not drilled down enough to really tell a story. 

 

What is our 3rd down conversation rate at 3rd and 5 or 6+, on clear passing downs?

 

Just my guess, but TT is not effective at converting 3rd and mid or longer comparatively to the rest of the league. The same as he isn't good with playing from behind. He does not excel in clear passing situations. 

 

 

Back on page one I posted a whole article done specifically on that.  It essentially says we are averaging 3rd and long much more often and the worse the recievers the worse he has done.  I doubt anyone is reading it, but it's there.

8 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

To the first bolded point, we scored 28 TD's all year.  That's on the offense.  It's not hard to argue.  We lead the league in 3 and outs.  If we didn't punt so much, we would have scored points.  We were 31st in passing and 6th in rushing....it's easy to see where the problem is.

 

How in the world does rushing and Shady have nothing to do with scoring?

 

I don't agree at all that's the best case.  I don't think it has anything to do with trust with Taylor throwing to WR, he just doesn't see them. 

Dennison said in camp Taylor needs to throw the ball on time.  Anthony Lynn said the same thing.  Multiple teams said they want to keep Taylor in the pocket to make him play QB because they know he is not good throwing from within the pocket.

 

3 different offensive coordinators have worked with Taylor and we never finished above 28th in passing.  Taylor is the problem moving the ball in the air.

You keep mixing scoring and yardage stats .......... they mean completely different things.  I don't need to change your mind so I'm not going to carry on. 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

3 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

There usually isn’t context with his posts. It’s generally just raw stats over analyzed.

 

 

this^

 

I'm really glad we're in but it was not solely because of taylor yet the OP still feels the need to prop him up.

 

win the next two games, due to him carrying the team, not the defense or special teams being the main factor, then maybe you can prop him up. otherwise, nothing special with the 3rd down conversion stats.

 

only winning two games against above .500 teams (falcons, chiefs) is not impressive, at all. 

 

2 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I'm still pretty shocked we won 4 out of our last 6 because we only scored 7 offensive TD's in that span.

That's just a shade of over 1 TD a game.  

 

[twoandfourteen]

27 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

 

This is where people get discombobulated. 

 

The Taylorites want to use the argument in favor of their guy but not the other.   It's the EJ discussion all over again.  They will latch onto a single game and use it as their basis of fact.  Yet when we try to present that information to them, it rubs them wrong way and "tempers flare". 

 

We all have seen or discusses Taylor's games over the past 3 seasons.   He is exactly who he was in his scouting report.  

 

Nate sucked against the Chargers, EJ sucked against the Jags in London, but they  somehow forget the multiple  sub 50 QB ratings from TT.  

 

[Royale with Cheese]

9 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Yes, yes, and yes.  Watching us play prevent is some games drives me nuts.  This last Miami game was again pissing me off watching that defense.  Taylor is too conservative.  I don't hate him like some but I can't deny that.  Marrone had a much better pass rush and his defense is really good.  His running game also features a power back and scores a few more TD's.  I don't care what anyone says we miss Gillislee.  Not taking anything away from McCoy but Gillislee added that cut and go skip the east and west stuff that we need sometimes.  All that said I hope we beat them and Marrone can suck it.

Back on page one I posted a whole article done specifically on that.  It essentially says we are averaging 3rd and long much more often and the worse the recievers the worse he has done.  I doubt anyone is reading it, but it's there.

You keep mixing scoring and yardage stats .......... they mean completely different things.  I don't need to change your mind so I'm not going to carry on. 

 

I'm not mixing them at all.  The game of football is played on a field measured  by yards.  The less you move the ball, the less likely you are to score.  That's our problem specifically in the passing game.  You don't score by punting all the time and we punted a lot....the highest percentage of 3 and outs in the league.  We don't move the ball in the air very well at all.  We move the ball on the ground very well.

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

My bucket list is to watch a game with you.  

Thanks but you'd be disappointed. 

[Mango]

18 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Yes, yes, and yes.  Watching us play prevent is some games drives me nuts.  This last Miami game was again pissing me off watching that defense.  Taylor is too conservative.  I don't hate him like some but I can't deny that.  Marrone had a much better pass rush and his defense is really good.  His running game also features a power back and scores a few more TD's.  I don't care what anyone says we miss Gillislee.  Not taking anything away from McCoy but Gillislee added that cut and go skip the east and west stuff that we need sometimes.  All that said I hope we beat them and Marrone can suck it.

Back on page one I posted a whole article done specifically on that.  It essentially says we are averaging 3rd and long much more often and the worse the recievers the worse he has done.  I doubt anyone is reading it, but it's there.

You keep mixing scoring and yardage stats .......... they mean completely different things.  I don't need to change your mind so I'm not going to carry on. 

 

 

Apologies, I missed the 2nd post on it. 

 

TT's top two receivers are exactly the same as last year. Clay and Shady. So I am not sure I buy that argument. Sammy was never really utilized either. 

 

What is really concerning looking at the numbers is that catch% seems to be way down. Shady is down 10% points alone. Kind of weird. I don't have an answer, but curious of others thoughts on that. 

 

2016 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2016.htm

 

2017

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2017.htm

[Bangarang]

39 minutes ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

Kirk Cousins put up 4000 yards with: 

• Jamison Crowder
• Terelle Pryor (for 9 games)
• Vernon Davis
• Josh Doctson
• Ryan Grant (who I honestly thought was the RB from Green Bay, but then realized that this is a different Ryan Grant)

CJ Beathard (204.3 yds/gm) & Jimmy Garappolo (260.0 yds/gm) put up better passing numbers with: 

• Marquise Goodwin
• Louis Murphy
• George Kittle
• Pierre Garcon (for 8 games)
• Trent Taylor
• Aldrick Robinson

Washed up, old Eli Manning went for 231.2 yds/gm throwing to: 

• Sterling Shepard
• Evan Engram
• Roger Lewis
• Tavarres King
• Odell Beckham (for 4 games)

 

Now, spare us all the microscopic breakdown of Louis Murphy vs Deonte Thompson. I don't really care. The point is that there are plenty of teams working with less-than-ideal WR/TE groups and they are able to somehow manage a functional and barely competent passing game. 

 

I don't think anyone wants or expects the "greatest show on turf" from Tyrod Taylor. But it's not too much to ask to hit a receiver in stride or maybe at least present the threat of a passing attack. He's started 43 games and 23 of them are under 200 yards passing. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You make a reasonable point. Tyrod has had and currently has weapons to throw to. He’s just not good at throwing to his WRs. We’ve seen other QBs whom most would consider worse than Tyrod move the ball with equal or lesser talent at WR. People will instead latch onto his low INT number because that’s really all he has. He played in every game and threw 14 TDs. That’s pathetic. Consider this, a rookie QB in Deshaun Watson played in 6 games and still finished with more TDs than TT had all year. 

Edited January 3, 2018 by Bangarang

[Royale with Cheese]

4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks but you'd be disappointed. 

 

I'm assuming you would be tempted to hold my hand during the game?

You'll then use the excuse it's cold outside and then I will reiterate to you that we are in a dome at 72 degrees.

4 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

You make a reasonable point. Tyrod has had and currently has weapons to throw to. He’s just not good at throwing to his WRs. We’ve seen other QBs whom most would consider worse than Tyrod move the ball with equal or lesser talent at WR. People will instead latch onto his low INT number because that’s really all he has. He played in every game and threw 14 TDs. That’s pathetic. Consider this, a rookie QB in Deshaun Watson played in 6 games and still finished with more TDs than TT had all year. 

 

A perfect example of this is when it was 2nd and 15 against the Pats, Taylor threw a quick slant to Mike Tolbert....the slowest guy on the field.

They specifically talked about this play on WGR with Sal C.  In his opinion, the play was originally designed for McCoy but he was out that series.  So Tolbert came in.  Taylor was going to throw it to that RB no matter who it was....he already made up his mind.

Tony Romo was the commentator.  After that throw, he said he didn't understand it.  You need to let the play develop on a 2nd an long and not quickly get rid of it to a slower RB.

[Maine-iac]

So why did we score almost 400 points last year?  If we are running so well this year that's not it.  Did we throw it so much better last year?  If it's just yards we should be scoring almost the same since the rushing attack is great like you say.   

3 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

 

 

Then we have the case of Tyrod Taylor, whom Buffalo benched this week. Taylor actually ranked 10th in conversion rate (42.4 percent) even though he had the fourth-highest need yards (8.7). His ALEX dropped to -0.1 this season, ranked 29th. We've seen this continued change in Taylor's game. In his first season with Buffalo, his ALEX was +4.5, which ranked second in the NFL. It dropped to +2.3 in 2016, but still good enough for seventh in the league, and he was better at converting plays. Taylor's conversion rate was actually a career best this year, but alas he is benched after the Bills allowed 81 points in two losses. A big problem this year was the massive changes at wide receiver. Taylor was targeting running back LeSean McCoy more than anyone on third down, and those 16 targets produced a -10.9 ALEX. In 2016, Taylor's go-to targets on third down were deep threats Marquise Goodwin (+6.2 ALEX) and Sammy Watkins (+7.1 ALEX). Both of those receivers, as well as Robert Woods (+1.4 ALEX), are in the NFC West this year.

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/alex/2017/2017-alex-midseason-report

 

 

 

It's right there in black and white ........... if anyone cares.

 

[Royale with Cheese]

Just now, Maine-iac said:

So why did we score almost 400 points last year?  If we are running so well this year that's not it.  Did we throw it so much better last year?  If it's just yards we should be scoring almost the same since the rushing attack is great like you say.   

 

 

You're making over complicating this when you don't have to.

Our running game is good this year, it was excellent last year.

Our passing game was very poor this year, it was below average last year.

 

2017 total offense:  4,842 and 28 TD's.

2016 total offense: 5,666 and 46 TD's.

 

3 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Again, those statistics don't tell the whole story.(Per usual) The old saying. Statistics can be manipulated any which way you want them to be. 

 

This goes back to the Bills doing COMPLETELY different things on offense when they get a lead.

 

They go ultra conservative and basically play offense to punt the ball and rely on their defense to hold the lead. It's been the strategy all year. To the Bills and McDermotts credit, it's got them to the playoffs. 

 

 

 

Nope.  So you're saying we score 1 TD and McDermott is satisfied LOL?  Then why did he say scoring points have been a problem?

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

2 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

Definately on defense I would.  Rex couldn't stop the run or the pass.  McDermott seems very good at pass coverage and until trading Dareus we were good at stuffing the run also.  The key is always keeping points off the board.

Can we stop the run well enough to make that work?  This is where that Dareus trade may bite us in the butt, this year anyways.

 

I think you stack the box with 7 and make Bortles beat your secondary- the unquestionable strength of this defense. 

 

If Blain Gabbett and a washed up AP can beat this team... and Mariota and crew... Bills have a legitimate shot. 

[Maine-iac]

14 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Taylor actually ranked 10th in conversion rate (42.4 percent) even though he had the fourth-highest need yards (8.7).

 

14 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Taylor's go-to targets on third down were deep threats Marquise Goodwin (+6.2 ALEX) and Sammy Watkins (+7.1 ALEX). Both of those receivers, as well as Robert Woods (+1.4 ALEX), are in the NFC West this year.

 

 

14 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

We've seen this continued change in Taylor's game. In his first season with Buffalo, his ALEX was +4.5, which ranked second in the NFL. It dropped to +2.3 in 2016, but still good enough for seventh in the league, and he was better at converting plays.

 

14 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Taylor's conversion rate was actually a career best this year, but alas he is benched after the Bills allowed 81 points in two losses. A big problem this year was the massive changes at wide receiver.

Because people need it broken down for them.  ALEX = yards a player gets vs yards needed on any given third down.  Fact is the whole offense has been worse.  Despite what Royal is trying to sell the running game has been MUCH worse.  The passing game a little worse.  We can't run the ball with a lead and then we are asking Taylor to convert long third downs where the defense knows we have to throw for almost 9 yards on average.  We aren't popping big plays as much running and outside of Thompson we have no deep threat to speak of.   Acting like the troubles we have had on offense all fall on Taylor is just convenient packaging.

[Royale with Cheese]

7 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Yup.

 

Again, the Bills approach changes when they have a lead. I have no idea why McDermott said that but he can't expect to score going run, run, pass/screen/draw and basically going on 15 to 20 play drives to get in the end zone. Thats a lot to ask of any offense.

 

 

 

So McDermott was lying when he said they have a problem scoring points LOL.  

He then makes a QB change because our passing was so poor.

Yep you're right Scott....he was absolutely satisfied with 1 TD per game.

 

This quote below is a lie right Scott?  

 

 “Well, there [are] legitimate concerns in terms of being able to score points [and] finishing drives,” McDermott said Tuesday. “Against good opponents sooner or later that's going to come back to get you.” “Yeah, we're looking at that and I know Rick [Dennison] and his staff continue to look hard at that....  

6 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

 

 

 

Because people need it broken down for them.  ALEX = yards a player gets vs yards needed on any given third down.  Fact is the whole offense has been worse.  Despite what Royal is trying to sell the running game has been MUCH worse.  The passing game a little worse.  We can't run the ball with a lead and then we are asking Taylor to convert long third downs where the defense knows we have to throw for almost 9 yards on average.  We aren't popping big plays as much running and outside of Thompson we have no deep threat to speak of.   Acting like the troubles we have had on offense all fall on Taylor is just convenient packaging.

 

They all don't fall on Taylor but he was a major reason why.

Edited January 3, 2018 by Royale with Cheese

[Maine-iac]

McCoy by halves.  I don't see how anyone can't find the second halves to not be a coaching thing.

 

WHEN WINNING	113	375	3.3	48	1	16	95	5.9	18	1	0	0

 

QUARTER = 1	76	349	4.6	37	2	19	145	7.6	24	0	0	0
QUARTER = 2	66	334	5.1	25	1	17	116	6.8	16	1	2	0
QUARTER = 3	75	245	3.3	32	0	11	110	10.0	39	0	0	0
QUARTER = 4	62	176	2.8	48	2	12	77	6.4	17	1	1	1

Edited January 3, 2018 by Maine-iac

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Where did I say he was lying? 

 

He's not being realistic if he expects to run the ball at will down the field in 15 to 20 play drives for Touchdowns.... which is essentially what the Bills try to do when they get a lead. Its infuriating and extremely boring to watch. But hey a win is a win. 

 

Keep up with me Scott.

You said "yup" when I said asked if McDermott was satisfied with 1 TD per game.  

Then I posted a quote where McDermott specifically states there's legitimate concerns with scoring points.   

Your statement and McDermott's are conflicting.  Conflicting means it's a state of opposition.  

So which one is the truth Scott.  McDermott is satisfied with 1 TD per game or not.  

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, Maine-iac said:

Yes, yes, and yes.  Watching us play prevent is some games drives me nuts.  This last Miami game was again pissing me off watching that defense.  Taylor is too conservative.  I don't hate him like some but I can't deny that.  Marrone had a much better pass rush and his defense is really good.  His running game also features a power back and scores a few more TD's.  I don't care what anyone says we miss Gillislee.  Not taking anything away from McCoy but Gillislee added that cut and go skip the east and west stuff that we need sometimes.  All that said I hope we beat them and Marrone can suck it.

 

Being a homer I'd like to believe that the Jags SOS  helped them get 10 wins.    Seems like a soft schedule. 

 

 

@ Texans	W
Titans	L
Ravens	W
@ JETS	L
@ PITT	W
Rams	L
@ Colts	W
Bengals	W
Chargers	W
@ Browns	W
@ Cards	L
Colts	W
Seahawks	W
Texans	W
49ers	L
Titans	L

4 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

McCoy by halves.  I don't see how anyone can't find the second halves to not be a coaching thing.

 

WHEN WINNING	113	375	3.3	48	1	16	95	5.9	18	1	0	0

 

QUARTER = 1	76	349	4.6	37	2	19	145	7.6	24	0	0	0
QUARTER = 2	66	334	5.1	25	1	17	116	6.8	16	1	2	0
QUARTER = 3	75	245	3.3	32	0	11	110	10.0	39	0	0	0
QUARTER = 4	62	176	2.8	48	2	12	77	6.4	17	1	1	1

Unavoidable SACKS and throw away's because someone won't pull the trigger.  

Make him a QB.  Stop the run and cover people.   

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

McCoy by halves.  I don't see how anyone can't find the second halves to not be a coaching thing.

 

QUARTER = 1	76	349	4.6	37	2	19	145	7.6	24	0	0	0
QUARTER = 2	66	334	5.1	25	1	17	116	6.8	16	1	2	0
QUARTER = 3	75	245	3.3	32	0	11	110	10.0	39	0	0	0
QUARTER = 4	62	176	2.8	48	2	12	77	6.4	17	1	1	1

 

I do think it is a coaching thing but I don't think the problem is running it too much so much as it is running the same plays too often.  The 1st New England game was a classic example.  We ran a pitch play to Shady early in the game that got double digit yards and a first down.  We ran the same pitch play near the end of the Quarter and got 2 or 3 yards.  We went back to it again in the second half and got stopped behind the line for a big loss.  Same formation, same personnel, same play.  You can't do that unless you have a downright dominant offensive line that is just blowing people off the ball. Greg Roman (I say for the millionth time the best and most creative run game designer in the whole NFL) was fantastic at saying "okay that play worked we are going to hit them again with basically the same play", but being able to run it out of a slightly different formation or with different personnel.  I don't think Shady is performing worse in the 4th because we are running too much.... it is because by Qrtr 3 we are just running the same plays the defense has already seen multiple times. 

[John from Riverside]

9 hours ago, xRUSHx said:

Miracles happen, too bad it takes a few decades to happen once. Thank God for the D and Cinci. This miracle happened in spite of Tyrod not because of.

 

I will be enjoying the game in Jacksonville watching it live while gladly drinking beer and eating some crow wishing Tyrod isn't forced to be a QB while our D once again carries us to victory.

 Go Bills

You are so lame

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

He's satisfied with winning. He cant possibly think the Bills strategy of becoming extremely conservative and predictable on offense has nothing to do with the fact that they are having trouble scoring points when leading. 

 

 

 

This is a perfect example of avoiding answering the question.  It was a yes or no question.  

If he thought the immediate problem was Dennsion, he would have fired Dennison and not bench Taylor.  But he benched Taylor and took a risk with Peterman because he wanted to get something out of our offense and being one dimensional was killing us.

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

This is a perfect example of avoiding answering the question.  It was a yes or no question.  

If he thought the immediate problem was Dennsion, he would have fired Dennison and not bench Taylor.  But he benched Taylor and took a risk with Peterman because he wanted to get something out of our offense and being one dimensional was killing us.

I think (just my opinion) that McD thought Peterman suited the offense in place better so the switch was made.   Rather then revamp an entire offense to fit one player he tried to insert one player into a already installed offense.

 

The problem was Peterman was just not ready.

[Maine-iac]

6 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

 

Being a homer I'd like to believe that the Jags SOS  helped them get 10 wins.    Seems like a soft schedule. 

 

 

@ Texans	W
Titans	L
Ravens	W
@ JETS	L
@ PITT	W
Rams	L
@ Colts	W
Bengals	W
Chargers	W
@ Browns	W
@ Cards	L
Colts	W
Seahawks	W
Texans	W
49ers	L
Titans	L

Unavoidable SACKS and throw away's because someone won't pull the trigger.  

Make him a QB.  Stop the run and cover people.   

I've put it all out there for anyone who is looking. We are running like crap in the second half.  We are averaging averging damn near 3rd and 9 on the passing downs we are asking Taylor to convert and he is still converting at a top ten rate.  That said you aren't going to score if you are running that conservative an offense even if you convert a couple 3rd downs you only went 20 or 30 yards.  Taylor's splits are virtually the same ahead or behind 1 to 8 points and first half or second half.  What is much much different is the rushing stats.  We are much much worse at running the ball in the second half.