THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Lake Effect

[Shaw66]

The Rockpile Review – by Shaw66

 

Lake Effect

 

The Bills beat the Colts, 13-7 on Sunday.  That’s what the record books will say.  The game was a good example of why the score tells only part of the story.

 

Played as a major lake effect snowstorm poured off of Lake Erie, the game featured basic football – blocking and tackling.  Sophisticated passing techniques were useless – quarterbacks couldn’t count on their receivers executing timing routes, sharp cuts, or pick plays properly.   Running the ball was the order of the day.

 

Still, many of the big plays were pass plays:  Peterman’s sideline completion to Benjamin, followed by the TD throw to Benjamin.  The Colts’ crushing drive as time ran out.  Webb’s masterful 34-yard throw to Thompson, and Thompson’s outstanding catch.  And, of course, the HUGE offensive pass interference call that saved the game for the Bills. 

 

The Bills needed the win to preserve their slim playoff hopes.  They get credit for winning.  But to say they just barely won is an understatement.  They won by the narrowest of margins, and for the past six weeks they haven’t looked like a team that can win consistently.  Granted, the conditions guaranteed a low-scoring, close game, but through 60 minutes the Bills had exactly one offensive possession that looked like they were imposing their will.  The Colts also had exactly one.  Then, in overtime, the Bills had one more, and the game was over.  So they get credit for winning, but not for making anyone think the Bills are going places.

 

Random thoughts:

 

1.  I love seeing one of those games every once in a while.  Reminds me of backyard games we played as kids.  And there always are some funny plays. 

 

2.  I assume Taylor was a reasonably healthy scratch.  If so, McDermott dodged a huge bullet with that decision, because he didn’t have the sub he wanted when Peterman went down. 

 

3.  Of course, McDermott figured that no one would get injured in a game slowed down by the snow.  He didn’t plan on his rookie QB diving headfirst into a tackle.  That was a stupid play by Peterman.  The penalty should have been called, but your QB can’t do that.

 

4.  On the other hand, Peterman’s two big throws to Benjamin were beautiful.  Big-time throws. 

 

5.  When the Bills traded for McCoy, I watched a lot of McCoy highlight videos on YouTube to remind myself what the Bills were getting.  Every video included some great runs in the snow in one or two games.  Just like the runs we saw in the snow against the Colts.  I keep saying it because there’s not much else to say:  Shady is an outstanding running back.  He gets important yards on important plays, and he makes big runs.  Really fun to watch. 

 

6.  When McCoy broke the TD run to win it, he had a great hole.  When the Bills needed it most, they ran behind Incognito, who didn’t disappoint.  Double the DE, then slide to the second level and seal the linebacker.  Shady did the rest.  Beautiful.

 

7.  Were the Bills lucky?  They certainly made enough mistakes to lose, most notably Tolbert’s fumble and Webb’s interception; either one could have lost the game.  When they could have won the game, the defense collapsed and allowed the tying TD.  MAYBE the offensive pass interference was a legit call – I think it was borderline correct but easily could have been let go.

 

8.  Were the Bills resilient?  They made some big plays, for sure.  And the defense made the stop the team needed in overtime.

 

9.  Tre’Davious White looked like he was doing some serious cheerleading.  Someone has to tell him that he can’t play 10 yards off his man on third and 10.  He gave away a first down on that play.

 

10.  Is Benjamin brittle or is this just bad luck?  I think bad luck, and maybe a nagging injury that needs the off-season to heal. 

 

Another snow day next week wouldn’t be the worst thing.  Another “must win” game, but I’m not a believer. 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

[Punt75]

Good write up!   Question - why is Tolbert playing so much?  Cadet seems to offer the same type of game as Shady. 

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, Punt75 said:

Good write up!   Question - why is Tolbert playing so much?  Cadet seems to offer the same type of game as Shady. 

In the snow, Tolbert's a better choice.  Straight ahead power may help.   

 

Cadet's style is like Shady, but not his ability.   In that mess today, Cadet couldn't do what Shady did.  

 

My opinion.  

[Happy]

34 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

7.  Were the Bills lucky? 

 

Yeah, probably so, have to admit.  If we were playing NE today, in these conditions, I think they would have spanked us; this pains me to admit because I hate them so much.

38 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

8.  Were the Bills resilient?

 

Yes, I think they've proven that given their up and down season.  After three shellackings in a row, they came back and won games they needed to win.  They never gave up at any point today.

[LABILLBACKER]

53 minutes ago, Punt75 said:

Good write up!   Question - why is Tolbert playing so much?  Cadet seems to offer the same type of game as Shady. 

Tolbert and DiMarco will both be cut after the season. Along with several others. 

[GETTOTHE50]

No doubt in my mind that is an offensive PI. 

 

100% right call. However, I am surprised the refs called it. They actually did a somewhat decent job this game.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

In the snow, Tolbert's a better choice.  Straight ahead power may help.   

Cadet's style is like Shady, but not his ability.   In that mess today, Cadet couldn't do what Shady did.  

My opinion.  

 

Shady has control over his body that ordinary humans just lack.  It borders on supernatural.

 

In snow, perhaps Tolbert is a better choice, but that still leaves the unsolved mystery of why Tolbert, when the green field is visible, appears favored over Cadet.

Cadet has better Y/A, Y/G, and Y/R and his catch % is within sampling error.

I get the utility of fullbacks.  Lots of stout running teams carry fullbacks as lead blockers.  But that doesn't seem to be how we use Tolbert.

[y2zipper]

I think another thing we saw is why they moved for Benjamin. In a game where scheming guys open doesnt wirk, Benjamin made some outstanding plays when Peterman gave him a chance.

 

He's gigantic and appears to fit what they want to do on offense. I'm hopeful he can get healthy.

[Billsfansinceday1]

Great  synopsis, Shaw.  It was fun to watch and will go down as a win on one of the worst weather days in NFL history.  It beats the alternative.

[Shaw66]

31 minutes ago, y2zipper said:

I think another thing we saw is why they moved for Benjamin. In a game where scheming guys open doesnt wirk, Benjamin made some outstanding plays when Peterman gave him a chance.

 

He's gigantic and appears to fit what they want to do on offense. I'm hopeful he can get healthy.

Very true. Good point. Benjamin is one reason to look forward to next season. 

[oldmanfan]

I'm looking forward to next season.  But I'm not ready to say this season is over yet!

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

I'm looking forward to next season.  But I'm not ready to say this season is over yet!

I'm watching with interest. But this team is going nowhere in the playoffs, so making the playoffs just means breaking the drought and not much more. I care more about being good than how many years it's been. 

 

I don't see the Bills compete g with any team likely to be in the playoffs. 

[KW95 - JA17]

8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm watching with interest. But this team is going nowhere in the playoffs, so making the playoffs just means breaking the drought and not much more. I care more about being good than how many years it's been. 

 

I don't see the Bills compete g with any team likely to be in the playoffs. 

Understand what your saying..but come on man...what makes you think they will be good next year?   Enjoy the ride

[oldmanfan]

8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm watching with interest. But this team is going nowhere in the playoffs, so making the playoffs just means breaking the drought and not much more. I care more about being good than how many years it's been. 

 

I don't see the Bills compete g with any team likely to be in the playoffs. 

I agree this is year one of a hopeful path towards sustained competitiveness.  But breaking the drought would be a welcome improvement.

[nkreed]

6 hours ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

No doubt in my mind that is an offensive PI. 

 

100% right call. However, I am surprised the refs called it. They actually did a somewhat decent job this game.

Their two point play was very similar to the touchdown play where the wr blocked down while the TE went around him wide open. Hyde fought of the block on the TD but it was way too late. I'm glad they called the obvious OPI on the 2 point attempt.

[Juice_32]

Great re-cap!

 

I was just discussing the game with 2 non-Bills fans. Both were in awe of the way Shady was able to run in that mess. Everyone else on the field looked like they were ice skating. Shady somehow looked like he was playing on a snow-less field.

7 hours ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

No doubt in my mind that is an offensive PI. 

 

100% right call. However, I am surprised the refs called it. They actually did a somewhat decent job this game.

 

Agree. That could not have been an easy game to call. There were very few flags, especially in the first half.

[richardb1952]

Shaw66;

Any comment on the punt on 4th and 1 in OT?  I personally thought it was the wrong call at the time, but I could see where coach was coming from.  Poor conditions, 3rd string QB, Punt and play defense for 3 and out/ turnover.

[Gugny]

Good stuff, Shaw.

 

With regard to Benjamin - I agree with you.  I think it's just an unfortunate season and he needs the time off to let it heal.  But if he can continue to play without further damage (pain management), I expect him to be out there, which is a nice change from the past couple years.

 

Go Bills!

[WhoTom]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm watching with interest. But this team is going nowhere in the playoffs, so making the playoffs just means breaking the drought and not much more. I care more about being good than how many years it's been. 

 

I don't see the Bills compete g with any team likely to be in the playoffs. 

 

I agree that they're likely one-and-done if they make the playoffs, but at least it would serve as a milestone that says, "Yes, we ARE a playoff-caliber team." To do that in McD's first year would help the players buy into "The Process" and could entice some of the better free agents to come to Buffalo in the off-season.

[dlonce]

Nice write up.

 

Why couldn’t this LE snowstorm happen last Sunday?

[rockpile]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm watching with interest. But this team is going nowhere in the playoffs, so making the playoffs just means breaking the drought and not much more. I care more about being good than how many years it's been. 

 

I don't see the Bills competing with any team likely to be in the playoffs. 

 

Sadly I agree.

[WhoTom]

10 minutes ago, dlonce said:

Nice write up.

 

Why couldn’t this LE snowstorm happen last Sunday?

 

Because Darth Hoodious controls the weather.

 

 

[Shaw66]

27 minutes ago, richardb1952 said:

Shaw66;

Any comment on the punt on 4th and 1 in OT?  I personally thought it was the wrong call at the time, but I could see where coach was coming from.  Poor conditions, 3rd string QB, Punt and play defense for 3 and out/ turnover.

Here's the same long post I just posted in the thread about that question:  

 

Punting on 4^th and 1 was the right decision. 

 

Let me start by saying that I was watching the game at a sports bar.  The room was filled with the audio from another game, so I couldn’t hear the announcers for the Bills game.  Looking at the screen, it was impossible to know where the ball was because all the yard markings were obliterated.  The network only occasionally showed in writing where the ball was.  So when they got to 4^th and 1, I thought punting was a good idea because I would have guessed the Bills hadn’t crossed the 50.

 

If I had known that they were at the Colts 41, I would have said go for it.  And that would have been the wrong decision.  Here’s why:

The objective is to make the playoffs.  For the coaches and players, that’s all that matters.  And when you get to this point of the season, it’s almost like you’re already in the playoffs. 

 

The over-riding rule in playoffs is “survive and advance.”  In other words, it doesn’t matter how you survive, it doesn’t matter how ugly or how beautiful or whatever.  Survive.  Giving yourself another game where you have a chance is what you need.   Whether you can win that next game is irrelevant; just getting to the next game is all you want – you’ll worry about how to win that game later. 

 

Survive and advance is where the Bills are now, along with all the other teams in the AFC hovering around .500 and trying to get to the postseason. 

And in this period when you’re fighting to get into the playoffs, there is a second important point:  Tie games are closer to wins than to losses.   Why?  Well, 9-6-1 gets you into the playoffs over every 9-7 team, so you don’t have to look to tie-breakers.  8-7-1 gets you in over every 8-8 team, and this is one of those years were 8-8 could actually be enough.  

 

In other words, a tie is not a neutral result.   A tie is a positive result.  Yes, a win is better.  But a tie is more like a win than like a loss.  Stated differently, it’s more important not to lose than it is to win.

 

Okay, with that in mind, go back to 4^th and 1 at the Colts 41.   I don’t know the exact probabilities, but looking just at winning or losing, I’d say that going for it on fourth down gave the Bills a 50-50 chance of winning or losing.  Why?   Because the chances of making the first down were around 50-50.  Whichever team had the ball on the next play would have had four minutes left and would have needed to move the ball about 25 yards to try a field goal.  The Bills would have needed 25 to get to the 15 to have a shot at 35 yard field goal into the wind, and the Colts would have need 25 to get to the Bills 35 to try a 50-yard field goal with the wind at their back.  We can argue about the percentages and how far they had to go, etc. but I think I’m in the ball park.

 

So in a two-outcome scenario, going for it is more or less a coin toss.   But it isn’t a two-outcome scenario; it’s three outcomes – win, lose or tie.  It isn’t 50-50; it’s more like 40-40-20. 

 

Given that the Bills are in the playoff hunt, and given that in the hunt ties are more like wins than losses, it’s easy to see why punting was the right call.  If the Bills punt, the chances that either the Bills or the Colts will win the game (if those are the only choices) are probably still 50-50.  The Colts have the ball, which is a plus for them, but they have a long way to go.  The Bills don’t have the ball but they have field position, but they also may run out of time.  

 

But those aren’t the only choices; it’s a three outcome scenario.  Although if they punt the chances the Bills will win go down, probably pretty dramatically, the chances that they get a tie go way up.  I’d guess that punting with 4 minutes left reduce the chances of the Bills winning in those conditions to 20%, probably less.  But the chances of tying go UP from 20% to 60%. 

 

Remember, in the playoff hunt, winning is the objective, but not losing is more important than winning.  Going for it on 4^th and 1 the Bills had a 60% chance of not losing.   Punting they had an 80% chance of not losing.  Punting was the right call.

 

Survive and advance. 

 

[WhoTom]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Survive and advance is where the Bills are now, along with all the other teams in the AFC hovering around .500 and trying to get to the postseason. 

And in this period when you’re fighting to get into the playoffs, there is a second important point:  Tie games are closer to wins than to losses.   Why?  Well, 9-6-1 gets you into the playoffs over every 9-7 team, so you don’t have to look to tie-breakers.  8-7-1 gets you in over every 8-8 team, and this is one of those years were 8-8 could actually be enough.  

 

In other words, a tie is not a neutral result.   A tie is a positive result.  Yes, a win is better.  But a tie is more like a win than like a loss.  Stated differently, it’s more important not to lose than it is to win.

 

 

I agree with your probabilities, but I disagree that a tie is a positive outcome under the circumstances. If that game ended in a tie, the Bills would most likely have to win out - including beating NE in Foxboro - to make the playoffs. In that case, McD should have played for the win instead of playing not-to-lose.

 

It worked out okay in the end, but I disagree with the call. Now we have to go 2-1 to have a good chance at the postseason.

 

The one questionable play call that nobody seems to be talking about is the pass play with about a minute in regulation. We're in our own territory with the 3rd-string QB in a blizzard. That's the time to be conservative - run the ball and play for OT.

 

 

 

[Shaw66]

8 minutes ago, WhoTom said:

 

I agree with your probabilities, but I disagree that a tie is a positive outcome under the circumstances. If that game ended in a tie, the Bills would most likely have to win out - including beating NE in Foxboro - to make the playoffs. In that case, McD should have played for the win instead of playing not-to-lose.

 

It worked out okay in the end, but I disagree with the call. Now we have to go 2-1 to have a good chance at the postseason.

 

The one questionable play call that nobody seems to be talking about is the pass play with about a minute in regulation. We're in our own territory with the 3rd-string QB in a blizzard. That's the time to be conservative - run the ball and play for OT.

 

 

 

I don't think so.  I couldn't possibly calculate the probabilities, but I think the bottom line is this:  With a loss yesterday, Bills had to win out to have a chance of getting into the playoffs.  Had to.   Practically no chance otherwise.   With a tie yesterday, Bills would have had a shot at the playoffs without a win in Foxboro, and would have been in great shape if they won out.   

 

 

[WhoTom]

4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I don't think so.  I couldn't possibly calculate the probabilities, but I think the bottom line is this:  With a loss yesterday, Bills had to win out to have a chance of getting into the playoffs.  Had to.   Practically no chance otherwise.   With a tie yesterday, Bills would have had a shot at the playoffs without a win in Foxboro, and would have been in great shape if they won out.   

 

 

 

Agreed. In either case, the Bills need help from other teams. Yesterday's W (as opposed to a tie) means we need less help.

 

 

[Gugny]

I think people are overlooking the fact that the Colts are a very, very bad football team.

 

I don't believe McD was playing for a tie.  Getting 3 feet in those conditions - with a 3rd string QB, no less - was not a safe bet.

 

Getting a punt off and holding the 2017 Colts was a far safer bet, in my opinion.

 

I think McD was playing for the win and he went about it wisely.

[Figster]

One of the main reasons I think McD decided to punt is because the D has come through on several occasions to help close out football games this season. The O on the other hand, not so much, especially with a 3rd string QB behind center.

 

Didn't like the call at the time, but I also had a bad feeling Buffalo wasn't going to get to the 1st down marker.

 

Smart, calculated, and thanks to OP's good breakdown the correct call to make.

 

Buffalo may not have a boatload of talent right now , but what we do have is a smart HC and a smart group of players buying into the process.

 

Contrary to OP I think anythings possible once you make the playoffs.

 

I'm a Billiever...

Edited December 11, 2017 by Figster

[Shaw66]

18 minutes ago, Figster said:

One of the main reasons I think McD decided to punt is because the D has come through on several occasions to help close out football games this season. The O on the other hand, not so much, especially with a 3rd string QB behind center.

 

Didn't like the call at the time, but I also had a bad feeling Buffalo wasn't going to get to the 1st down marker.

 

Smart, calculated, and thanks to OP's good breakdown the correct call to make.

 

Buffalo may not have a boatload of talent right now , but what we do have is a smart HC and a smart group of players buying into the process.

 

Contrary to OP I think anythings possible once you make the playoffs.

 

I'm a Billiever...

Right, except at the end of regulation the defense didn't come through at all.  

[Figster]

8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Right, except at the end of regulation the defense didn't come through at all.  

If your suggesting McD should have lost confidence in his D at that point, I disagree.

 

 

[Shaw66]

11 minutes ago, Figster said:

If your suggesting McD should have lost confidence in his D at that point, I disagree.

 

 

I'm not suggesting it isn't completely clear you should rely on your defense when it just let you down 15 minutes ago.  It's another variable that made this a very difficult decision.   

 

Do you rely on your offense, that hasn't done much for the past hour and a half, or do you rely on your defense which nearly gave the game away 15 minutes ago?   I don't know - the answer isn't obvious. 

[Figster]

Just now, Shaw66 said:

I'm not suggesting it isn't completely clear you should rely on your defense when it just let you down 15 minutes ago.  It's another variable that made this a very difficult decision.   

 

Do you rely on your offense, that hasn't done much for the past hour and a half, or do you rely on your defense which nearly gave the game away 15 minutes ago?   I don't know - the answer isn't obvious. 

 

It boiled down to who do I trust more in my humble opinion. My D, or my 3rd string QB.

 

T Mobiles on the field I think McD goes for it... 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Figster said:

 

It boiled down to who do I trust more in my humble opinion. My D, or my 3rd string QB.

 

T Mobiles on the field I think McD goes for it... 

I'm okay with your opinion.  It just isn't an obvious conclusion.

Funny, I think with Taylor on the field he makes the same decision.  He trusts his defense.  Done it all season long. 

[Gugny]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Do you rely on your offense, that hasn't done much for the past hour and a half two and a half years, or do you rely on your defense which nearly gave the game away 15 minutes ago?   I don't know - the answer isn't obvious. 

 

 

Slight adjustment.

[Shaw66]

13 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

 

Slight adjustment.

Slight.  I like it.