Gutless Call to Punt

[PolishDave]

6 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

I’m not assuming a loss to New England but I’m also not assuming we win 3 in a row for the first time all year AND get all the help we need. 

 

And again, this is relatively low risk (even if you miss the cost is low), high reward (huge swing in odds of scoring if you make it).

 

I get the sense from McDermott, that he looks at every game as if he is playing the same generic opponent every time.   It explains his line of thinking and decision making.

 

I get the sense that he assumes his odds of beating the Patriots are the same as beating anybody else.   And I think that is why he coached the way he did when the Bills played the Patriots.    He kicked a field goal on his first scoring attempt, when he was in a situation where he could have and should have (my opinion) gone for it.

 

And I think it explains his mentality against the Colts.    All opponents the same dime a dozen team.   And I hate that line of thinking because it is B.S.

 

If that is truly the way he thinks, we may never see McDermott coach the Bills to a victory over the Patriots.   He won't be here long enough to eventually accomplish it if that is the case.

[NoSaint]

I’m still curious at what yard line you would go for it, happy or Shaw? 35? 30? Not until you are confident you make the fg (and where is that?)

 

also, if you miss at the 40, what do you think the odds of the colts scoring are?

 

[BillsFan130]

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

At the end of the season you make the playoffs if you have enough wins compared to losses.  No one asks who your wins were against or who you losses were to.  You make the playoffs on your record.  

 

I'm sorry if a tie would have hurt your feelings; I want a coach who's trying to preserve the Bills chances to make the playoffs.  

Lol what in God's name makes you think they would win in New England if they can't even beat the Colts at home?

 

A tie barely preserves anything. 3 percent chance if they tie. If he's happy with that then he is a loser coach. You have to win that game yesterday against a terrible team. No if, ands, or buts

[HappyDays]

5 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Yes of course because they should have proceeded with high confidence that they'd win the final three games after knotting with the lowly Colts

 

You're the third person to mention the Colts being a bad team as if that has anything to do with the decision at all. This wasn't a normal game. Our respective records didn't matter, it was a fight to survive until the end.

[Sweats]

And until we get a coaching staff that takes chances and goes for the jugular, we will be stuck in the never ending carousel of mediocrity.

 

The NFL is missing coaches like Buddy Ryan, Jerry Glanville, etc.........they might not have always made the rights calls, but god, they were eccentric and made games interesting.

 

Punt on 4th and 1 and go for the tie?

Aye Carumba 

[HappyDays]

10 minutes ago, billsfan11 said:

Lol what in God's name makes you think they would win in New England if they can't even beat the Colts at home?

 

Come on you know this isn't how the NFL works. We beat the Falcons in Atlanta. The Jets scored more points on us than the Patriots. I could go on forever.

[BillsFan130]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

Come on you know this isn't how the NFL works. We beat the Falcons in Atlanta. The Jets scored more points on us than the Patriots. I could go on forever.

When was the last time the Bills won in Foxboro? Not counting the 2014 game where the Pats pulled their starters at the half

[HappyDays]

18 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Yes of course because they should have proceeded with high confidence that they'd win the final three games

 

Well yeah. You're saying the punt was gutless but assuming a loss in our last 3 games is smart??

[Augie]

I didn't like the call, but I’m not judging an entire regime on a single decision. Knee jerk stuff bothers me. We are less than a season in....oh, and we won. 

[HappyDays]

Just now, billsfan11 said:

When was the last time the Bills won in Foxboro? Not counting the 2014 game where the Pats pulled their starters at the half

 

Do you really think this question should have played into McDermott's thinking? I think that is as gutless as it gets.

 

All this over a decision in a game we won!! It went exactly the way he wanted it to except we let the Colts get one 1st down. He made the decision expecting a 3 and out. So the decision didn't go exactly as planned and we still won. No one is changing their mind on this but don't pretend it's as clear cut as you think. 

[Augie]

6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

You're the third person to mention the Colts being a bad team as if that has anything to do with the decision at all. This wasn't a normal game. Our respective records didn't matter, it was a fight to survive until the end.

Really? Did you notice anything out of the ordinary about this one? 

[BillsFan130]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

Do you really think this question should have played into McDermott's thinking? I think that is as gutless as it gets.

 

All this over a decision in a game we won!! It went exactly the way he wanted it to except we let the Colts get one 1st down. He made the decision expecting a 3 and out. So the decision didn't go exactly as planned and we still won. No one is changing their mind on this but don't pretend it's as clear cut as you think. 

I think going into this game he had to know it was a must win, absolutely. 

 

You can't bank your season on winning the last 3 games, especially with two road games and one against the defending champs.

 

Its a very clear cut decision to go for it in my opinion.  And it actually didn't go exactly the way he planned it. He planned not to lose the game. It was better than he even expected

 

 

[NoSaint]

9 minutes ago, Augie said:

I didn't like the call, but I’m not judging an entire regime on a single decision. Knee jerk stuff bothers me. We are less than a season in....oh, and we won. 

 

 

I agree that that it doesn’t define his career.

 

and he got away with it.

 

but I hope that’s considered a mistake and not a philosophy that defines his approach 

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, NoSaint said:

 

 

I agree that that it doesn’t define his career.

 

and he got away with it.

 

but I hope that’s considered a mistake and not a philosophy that defines his approach 

 

Said he'd do the same thing again.  

[NoSaint]

Come on happy- give me this one... where do you pull the trigger and go for it?

 

Or do you punt until a field goal, and at what yard line do you make that call?

[HappyDays]

1 minute ago, billsfan11 said:

You can't bank your season on winning the last 3 games, especially with two road games and one against the defending champs.

 

This is where we disagree. I don't think we can afford to lose another game either way. I doubt McDermott thought about it this hard, but when I look at tiebreakers and the records of the other wildcard contenders I just don't see a path in at 9-7. But 9-6-1, absolutely.

[NoSaint]

Just now, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Said he'd do the same thing again.  

Let’s hope that’s not true. Rarely does a guy say “got that one wrong!” but sometimes you see a guy change his call in the future 

[Shaw66]

23 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

I’m still curious at what yard line you would go for it, happy or Shaw? 35? 30? Not until you are confident you make the fg (and where is that?)

 

also, if you miss at the 40, what do you think the odds of the colts scoring are?

 

That's a good question.   Certainly go for it at the 30.  It's 47 yard field goal into the wind, so that's not a good idea.    Punting from the 40 you can count on gaining 25 yards of field position, maybe more.   That's worth it.  Punting from the 30 only gets you 25 yards, so it isn't a big enough difference.   

 

It's really an odd situation.   I'd almost say that you never go for it.   Either punt or kick the field goal.   But I certainly would have gone for it on the 30.   

 

I don't know the odds of the Colts scoring from anywhere.   All I know is that the odds are considerably higher when they start 25 yards closer.    Remember, Vinatieri probably only needed the line of scrimmage to be at the 35 to have a shot at the field goal.   Turning the ball over at the 40 would have given the Colts a short field.   So I'd say the Colts chances of winning from the 40 were probably twice there chances from the 15.   

[Augie]

1 minute ago, NoSaint said:

 

 

I agree that that it doesn’t define his career.

 

and he got away with it.

 

but I hope that’s considered a mistake and not a philosophy that defines his approach 

 

It was such a strange game I’d lessen the weight I’d normally given it in rating him, but it’s still real. And we still won....so there’s that.  But I’d have preferred to go for it. 

[Shaw66]

8 minutes ago, billsfan11 said:

 

 

You can't bank your season on winning the last 3 games, especially with two road games and one against the defending champs.

 

 

 

 

Their season depended on winning the last 4 games already.   Or winning 3 and tying 1.   They couldn't afford a loss yesterday.

[BillsFan130]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is where we disagree. I don't think we can afford to lose another game either way. I doubt McDermott thought about it this hard, but when I look at tiebreakers and the records of the other wildcard contenders I just don't see a path in at 9-7. But 9-6-1, absolutely.

Apparently if they finish 9 and 7 they have a 60 percent chance to get in. But yes I know what you're saying.

 

Honestly answer this though. Do you actually think the bills are going to go in New England and win? From a fans perspective, not a coaches perspective

Just now, Shaw66 said:

Their season depended on winning the last 4 games already.   Or winning 3 and tying 1.   They couldn't afford a loss yesterday.

9 and 7 gives them a 60 percent chance to get in as of now

[keepthefaith]

One thing that really bugs me about the NFL is how most teams needing a yard so often can't get it.  Granted the weather yesterday limits the playbook but to me teams have to work harder on short yardage.  When you need less than 2 yards on any down, you damn well should get it most of the time running the ball. 

[HappyDays]

1 minute ago, NoSaint said:

Come on happy- give me this one... where do you pull the trigger and go for it?

 

Or do you punt until a field goal, and at what yard line do you make that call?

 

I wouldn't have bothered with a field goal until like the 10. I would have punted anywhere up to maybe the 25. It was pretty much a sure thing we were getting the ball back and Shady had been dangerously close to breaking a long TD run a few times. Field position is what matters there. Lost in all this is that the Bills have sucked at converting 3rd/4th and short situations. Playing to lose is counting on the weakest part of your team to win the game for you. Playing to win is living to see another drive.

[Augie]

I’m not making excuses, but this was a year designed to set up the future. Look at how they dumped players/contracts and accumulated draft picks. It was never “giving up” on this year, but it was never “all in at all costs” either. We are not a player away (even a QB). Having said that, win a couple more and I call it a good start. 

[NoSaint]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

I wouldn't have bothered with a field goal until like the 10. I would have punted anywhere up to maybe the 25. It was pretty much a sure thing we were getting the ball back and Shady had been dangerously close to breaking a long TD run a few times. Field position is what matters there. Lost in all this is that the Bills have sucked at converting 3rd/4th and short situations. Playing to lose is counting on the weakest part of your team to win the game for you. Playing to win is living to see another drive.

 

Oh jeeze— I appreciate you actually adding the context to your stance here. I think we are  so far off on philosophy that it’s probably just agree to disagree here. 

 

The benefit of a punt from the 27 is just so non-existent in my philosophy... 

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, billsfan11 said:

 

9 and 7 gives them a 60 percent chance to get in as of now

Where does it say this?    

 

My understanding is that there's only a 14 or 16% chance that they make it, and they only have 6 losses now. 

 

I looked and in 5 of the last 10 years NO team at 9-7 made the playoffs as a wildcard.  In the other team one of the 9-7 teams made it.   So I don't see how the Bills could possibly have a 60% chance of getting in.  Right now they're behind in the tie breakers to two teams that also could finish 9-7,  so I don't see how they could be 60%.   The Bills need a lot of help if they're getting in at 9-7.  

[HappyDays]

3 minutes ago, billsfan11 said:

Apparently if they finish 9 and 7 they have a 60 percent chance to get in. But yes I know what you're saying.

 

Honestly answer this though. Do you actually think the bills are going to go in New England and win? From a fans perspective, not a coaches perspective

 

I haven't seen that percentage but I could believe it's true. But that's not so far off from 50/50. I just want us to assume we need to win our last 3 games, and in that world a tie against the Colts is totally fine. People are saying a tie is the same as a loss, but in the world where we need to win our last 3 games no matter what a tie is the same as a win. Only a loss is a loss. I don't know which world we're in yet.

 

As a fan I don't think we are winning that game. But I'm assuming we need to. I'm not exactly optimistic about our playoff chances, this whole year to me is just a test and preparation for the future.

[BillsFan130]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

Where does it say this?    

 

My understanding is that there's only a 14 or 16% chance that they make it, and they only have 6 losses now. 

 

I looked and in 5 of the last 10 years NO team at 9-7 made the playoffs as a wildcard.  In the other team one of the 9-7 teams made it.   So I don't see how the Bills could possibly have a 60% chance of getting in.  Right now they're behind in the tie breakers to two teams that also could finish 9-7,  so I don't see how they could be 60%.   The Bills need a lot of help if they're getting in at 9-7.  

I heard it on wgr today. They definitely would need some help

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, NoSaint said:

 

Oh jeeze— I appreciate you actually adding the context to your stance here. I think we are  so far off on philosophy that it’s probably just agree to disagree here. 

 

The benefit of a punt from the 27 is just so non-existent in my philosophy... 

Yeah, I'm with you.  I think you have to consider how much you improve field position with the punt.   As I said, 25 yards was worth it.  I don't think 15 yards would have been worth it.  

[HappyDays]

5 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

Oh jeeze— I appreciate you actually adding the context to your stance here. I think we are  so far off on philosophy that it’s probably just agree to disagree here. 

 

The benefit of a punt from the 27 is just so non-existent in my philosophy... 

 

Yeah I get it, I have completely changed my mind in the last 24 hours. I would have supported it either way. And by no means do I agree with everything McDermott has done this year, not even close. But I realized a tie is much better than a loss here and his decision in that respect was right.

[BillsFan130]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

I haven't seen that percentage but I could believe it's true. But that's not so far off from 50/50. I just want us to assume we need to win our last 3 games, and in that world a tie against the Colts is totally fine. People are saying a tie is the same as a loss, but in the world where we need to win our last 3 games no matter what a tie is the same as a win. Only a loss is a loss. I don't know which world we're in yet.

 

As a fan I don't think we are winning that game. But I'm assuming we need to. I'm not exactly optimistic about our playoff chances, this whole year to me is just a test and preparation for the future.

I guess from a fans perspective, I'm mad he didn't go for it because I'm assuming the bills have 0 chance against the Pats. So tie against the Colts and lose against the Pats, the season is done.

 

I understand the coach can't mark losses on the calendar, but he should also know it's almost an impossible task to win those last 3 games, especially given the tough schedule ahead. That's where I think he mis calculated the decision to play"not to lose".

 

9 and 7 gives you a descent shot so you can maybe afford to lose one more game. 8-7-1 gives you no shot

[GoBills808]

Awesome roughing call

[NoSaint]

29 minutes ago, keepthefaith said:

One thing that really bugs me about the NFL is how most teams needing a yard so often can't get it.  Granted the weather yesterday limits the playbook but to me teams have to work harder on short yardage.  When you need less than 2 yards on any down, you damn well should get it most of the time running the ball. 

 

Agreed. 

 

Its one of those stats that makes such a difference too. I think I heard the announcer say the eagles were 12-12 in 3rd or 4th and 1 situations this year? The pats are likewise consistently above average. Converting 4 and 1 is essentially manufacturing a turnover and I think we can all agree on how important the turnover battle is. 

[Shaw66]

16 minutes ago, billsfan11 said:

I heard it on wgr today. They definitely would need some help

I have to admit I'm thoroughly confused on the tie-breakers.   I just started looking at the standings, and what the networks have been showing apparently is wrong.   Right now the Bills apparently are in the #6 spot, so they have the tie-breakers on the Ravens and the Chargers.   Head to head, which they obviously lose to the Chargers, doesn't count in a 3-way tie.   Chargers lose out because their conference win-loss is worse than Bills and Ravens.   That might not hold after three more weeks.   

 

When I step back and look at all this, I find it all very weird.   We've all watched the Bills this season, and as exciting as the first several weeks were, I don't there are many Bills fans who think the Bills are a good team today.   Maybe they're better than we think - maybe their defense is back to being good (three good games in a row - Chiefs, Pats and Colts), but I'm not feeling it.   And yet here we are about how legitimate a shot they have at the playoffs.   Playoffs?  This team?   In disarray at the most important position, no receivers, mediocre to horrible pass protection.  Playoffs?

[PolishDave]

40 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I wouldn't have bothered with a field goal until like the 10. I would have punted anywhere up to maybe the 25. It was pretty much a sure thing we were getting the ball back and Shady had been dangerously close to breaking a long TD run a few times. Field position is what matters there. Lost in all this is that the Bills have sucked at converting 3rd/4th and short situations. Playing to lose is counting on the weakest part of your team to win the game for you. Playing to win is living to see another drive.

 

That is flat out apeshit crazy.

 

 

 

Come on dude... You made that up.

 

No way in hell you really believe that.    Just no way.

Edited December 12, 2017 by PolishDave

[reddogblitz]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I liked Jauron.  We was the all-time conservative coach.  

 

Jauron was really smart.   Really smart.   He understood that if you have subpar talent, the only way to compete was to keep the score low.  He had subpar talent, so he kept the score low.  His defenses didn't allow big plays - if you scored on him, you scored by going on long, time consuming drives.  His offenses ran the clock, and he punted a lot.  The result was (1) boring football and (2) a lot of games that were close in the fourth quarter.   Three years of teams that competed more than they deserved.  

 

I've often wondered what he would have done if he had any talent on his teams.  His conservative approach would have been deadly with a lot of talent, but maybe his approach would have changed with talent. 

 

Did he have sub par talent in Chicago when he went 13-3? I believe Brian Erlacher was on that team.

[Augie]

8 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

They are the 2007 Jauron led Buffalo Bills. The AFC is incredibly weak. Bills would be a lock for the playoffs had they kept some key pieces and built an offense around the strengths of the team. 

 

Instead McEgo traded all the talented guys away for scrubs who play hard. 

 

The team is doing a nice job of playing Jauron ball by getting leads and basically punting while hoping the defense can hold until the clock expires. 

 

I expect 1-2 down the stretch and more fan blame on Tyrod rather than the guy in charge who made bad trades and hired these moron offensive coaches.

It’s nice to know we can always count on you!   

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

They are the 2007 Jauron led Buffalo Bills. The AFC is incredibly weak. Bills would be a lock for the playoffs had they kept some key pieces and built an offense around the strengths of the team. 

 

Instead McEgo traded all the talented guys away for scrubs who play hard. 

 

The team is doing a nice job of playing Jauron ball by getting leads and basically punting while hoping the defense can hold until the clock expires. 

 

I expect 1-2 down the stretch and more fan blame on Tyrod rather than the guy in charge who made bad trades and hired these moron offensive coaches.

I'm even okay with the trades.   I think the Bills would have been much better if they'd simply tailored the offense more to Taylor.   

 

One point I've been making all season is that the Bills have been trying to get Taylor to pass out of a traditional pocket, a cup that the QB stands in.   That takes away Taylor's ability to scramble.  

 

Last week I finally heard an announcer say what I've been saying about the Saints.  They don't make Brees stand in a pocket like that.   They don't steer DEs around the outside.  They keep the pass rush in front of them.   If the DEs beat the tackles to the inside, they don't worry about it, because Brees can scramble and avoid the sack.   

 

The Bills refused to do that.   I think the Bills offense could have been substantially better than it was. still a threat.  

 

Did it hurt to lose Watkins.?  Well maybe.  But they brought in Benjamin, a different kind of threat, but still a threat.  

[reddogblitz]

The percentages are based on past games. I would wonder how many of those games the field was covered n 8" of snow in OT with your 3rd string QB?  The answer is ZERO. 

 

I don't think one should blindly follow the percentages in such an extreme circumstance.  He made the right decision because we won.

 

I have never in many years of following football have heard so much whining after a win.

[Domdab99]

55 minutes ago, keepthefaith said:

One thing that really bugs me about the NFL is how most teams needing a yard so often can't get it.  Granted the weather yesterday limits the playbook but to me teams have to work harder on short yardage.  When you need less than 2 yards on any down, you damn well should get it most of the time running the ball. 

 

??? Have you ever played football?