SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 25 minutes ago, Buffalo30 said: Dump passes to the running back give him a really nice completion percentage...this stat means absolutely nothing lol Saw Brees do that last night .. it looks just as bad as it does with Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dante Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 16 hours ago, Gugny said: He doesn't even pass the Forrest Whitaker's bad eye test. Ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Now Moment Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said: Saw Brees do that last night .. it looks just as bad as it does with Buffalo. With the faster linebackers in the league now...gotta throw it past the first down line on third down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dante Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 That pick at the goal line last week on the opening drive was the final, final, final nail for me. Completely deflating the team. I don't even get upset at this kind of thing any more. It's just Tyrod. Hi-end backup QB. Can't expect anything more than that realistically . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemac2001 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Fake stats 3rd and 15 and tyrod checks down for a 8 yard gain = awesome passer rating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 4 hours ago, joesixpack said: 28th in passing yards 2015 30th in passing yards 2016 But keep climbing Mount Wrong. You'll reach the summit someday. The story of those seasons is simple........you can't throw for yardage that you've already consumed on the ground. When you lead the entire league in big plays offensively you are getting excellent production from the QB position..........manufactured by scheme/coaching or not........you don't want to hear that because you hate Taylor but it happened. By their actions the Bills seemingly wanted Taylor to prove he was a $30M QB this year and they wanted McCoy to be a 190 pound 300-carry plow horse and while on the whole they haven't been "bad" statistically, they've had some bad games and both have failed at being as-productive as in 2015-2016 while being asked to be something they are not. Realistically.........they were both just caught in the crossfire of the ever-evolving "process" of coach McD..........by summer he had decided to play Jauron Ball and that low-tide approach brings practically everyone down statistically. Only a fool could have thought that they could circumvent having the league's worst WR corps and not have it affect Taylor and McCoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat68 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 (edited) 19 hours ago, Foreigner said: Most people on this board and the media have been saying this year that TT is slowing down the Offense and is failing to move the chains, but here are the top QB passers on 3rd down in the NFL this year. Completion % Yards Passer Rating Josh McGowan 70.8 1,043 103.6 Drew Brees 67.5 859 94.2 Carson Wentz 66.4 1,043 125.7 Tyrod Taylor 65.4 707 88.0 Case Keenum 64.9 771 86.6 All of the top 5 QBs have played in 12 games I believe except Taylor who has been in just over 11(injury last week and Peterman game.) Looking at these figures, it would seem our problem is more on 1st and 2nd down, so place the blame where you wish. Still Buffalo is 13th in the league in 3rd down conversion %. So he is the 5th rated in Completion %. Go back and watch the NO games. Taylor is 4/5 on thrid down with the one in completion was an INT. However, none of those completions went for a first down. On third and long 8 yards or longer Taylor is 19th 27% 13/48 conversation rate. That is the bigger issue Brady is at 44% Dalton is second at 42% and Wentz is third at 39%. Thrid and under 5 yards he is top 10. Take away his threat of running to pick it up or the team calling a run his production of converting is way down. Edited December 8, 2017 by Mat68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, mikemac2001 said: Fake stats 3rd and 15 and tyrod checks down for a 8 yard gain = awesome passer rating Alternate Stats man... Lets get it right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Whom is this Josh McGowan you speak of? He should be leading the MVP race, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 19 hours ago, keepthefaith said: Show me the stats on converting a first down on 3rd down pass plays. 3rd and 20 and you check down for the short meaningless completion makes you look good in that one particular stat, but it's still a 3 and out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Gun Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Splits by Down Rushing Passing Down #Pl ToGo Yds Att Yds Y/A TD 1D Cmp Att Cmp% Yds Y/A TD Int Sk 1D Rate ANY/A 1st 311 10.05 5.76 168 715 4.3 2 21 79 128 61.7 783 6.1 4 3 15 35 79.7 5.1 All Bills plays on 1st down 2nd 250 8.71 5.33 127 444 3.5 3 25 71 116 61.2 643 5.5 3 1 7 33 81.2 5.3 All Bills plays on 2nd down 3rd 180 8.02 6.83 52 305 5.9 2 28 73 116 62.9 651 5.6 5 5 12 46 74.3 4.1 All Bills plays on 3rd down 4th 10 5.50 2.17 3 0 .0 1 1 2 6 33.3 13 2.2 1 0 1 1 81.9 4.7 All Bills plays on 4th down Splits by Yards to Go Rushing Passing Yards to Go #Pl ToGo Yds Att Yds Y/A TD 1D Cmp Att Cmp% Yds Y/A TD Int Sk 1D Rate ANY/A 1-3 95 1.88 4.79 57 241 4.2 6 33 22 36 61.1 147 4.1 4 0 2 20 107.1 6.0 All Bills plays with 1-3 yds to go 4-6 90 5.07 4.51 37 105 2.8 0 8 30 47 63.8 229 4.9 3 2 6 23 79.1 3.8 All Bills plays with 4-6 yds to go 7-9 89 7.98 6.67 30 159 5.3 0 7 31 56 55.4 261 4.7 4 2 3 19 76.6 4.3 All Bills plays with 7-9 yds to go 10+ 477 11.44 6.15 226 959 4.2 2 27 142 227 62.6 1453 6.4 2 5 24 53 74.6 5.1 All Bills plays with 10+ yds to go Splits by Down & Yards to Go Rushing Passing Down & Yards to Go #Pl ToGo Yds Att Yds Y/A TD 1D Cmp Att Cmp% Yds Y/A TD Int Sk 1D Rate ANY/A 1st & 10 281 10.00 6.03 152 683 4.5 2 21 72 115 62.6 740 6.4 0 2 14 31 73.8 5.0 All Bills plays with 1st & 10 yds to go 1st & >10 12 18.92 4.11 7 21 3.0 0 0 2 5 40 16 3.2 0 0 0 0 48.8 3.2 All Bills plays with 1st & >10 yds to go 1st & <10 18 4.89 2.53 9 11 1.2 0 0 5 8 62.5 27 3.4 4 1 1 4 68.2 6.9 All Bills plays with 1st & <10 yds to go 2nd & 1-4 38 1.92 4.52 25 84 3.4 3 12 8 13 61.5 65 5.0 0 0 0 7 74.2 5.0 All Bills plays with 2nd & 1-4 yds to go 2nd & 4-6 46 5.02 4.49 29 75 2.6 0 5 12 17 70.6 109 6.4 2 1 0 8 102.3 6.1 All Bills plays with 2nd & 4-6 yds to go 2nd & 7-9 50 7.98 6.14 22 110 5.0 0 4 14 27 51.9 111 4.1 1 0 1 7 74.8 4.7 All Bills plays with 2nd & 7-9 yds to go 2nd & 10+ 116 12.72 5.67 51 175 3.4 0 4 37 59 62.7 358 6.1 0 0 6 11 79.6 5.5 All Bills plays with 2nd & 10+ yds to go 3rd & 1-4 46 1.87 6.13 25 164 6.6 2 20 13 19 68.4 81 4.3 3 0 2 12 116.4 6.7 All Bills plays with 3rd & 1-4 yds to go 3rd & 4-6 35 5.14 5.31 5 20 4.0 0 3 16 26 61.5 118 4.5 0 0 4 14 72.3 3.9 All Bills plays with 3rd & 4-6 yds to go 3rd & 7-9 34 7.97 7.61 6 41 6.8 0 3 15 26 57.7 134 5.2 1 2 2 10 52.4 2.3 All Bills plays with 3rd & 7-9 yds to go 3rd & 10+ 65 13.95 7.80 16 80 5.0 0 2 29 45 64.4 318 7.1 1 3 4 10 64.9 4.1 All Bills plays with 3rd & 10+ yds to go 4th & 1-4 5 1.40 0.00 3 0 .0 1 1 0 2 0 0 .0 0 0 0 0 39.6 .0 All Bills plays with 4th & 1-4 yds to go 4th & 4-6 2 5.00 -8.00 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -8 -8.0 0 0 1 0 39.6 -4.0 All Bills plays with 4th & 4-6 yds to go 4th & 10+ 3 12.67 10.50 0 0 0 0 2 3 66.7 21 7.0 1 0 0 1 126.4 13.7 All Bills plays with 4th & 10+ yds to go 3rd/4th & short 51 1.82 5.70 28 164 5.9 3 21 13 21 61.9 81 3.9 3 0 2 12 109.3 6.1 All Bills plays with 3rd/4th & short yds to go Support us without the ads? Go Ad-Free. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Gun Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 League Averages Splits by Down Rushing Passing Down #Pl ToGo Yds Att Yds Y/A TD 1D Cmp Att Cmp% Yds Y/A TD Int Sk 1D Rate ANY/A 1st 10796 10.01 6.32 5706 22844 4.0 131 730 3089 4802 64.3 34517 7.2 211 98 286 1528 91.8 6.7 All 2017 plays on 1st down 2nd 8094 8.15 6.52 3435 13815 4.0 90 930 2821 4417 63.9 28453 6.4 172 98 241 1504 85.9 5.9 All 2017 plays on 2nd down 3rd 5167 7.36 7.71 1049 5134 4.9 49 522 2236 3747 59.7 23372 6.2 176 107 371 1512 81.6 5.4 All 2017 plays on 3rd down 4th 357 4.95 6.51 125 399 3.2 13 79 107 213 50.2 1249 5.9 15 14 17 85 64.5 4.0 All 2017 plays on 4th down Splits by Yards to Go Rushing Passing Yards to Go #Pl ToGo Yds Att Yds Y/A TD 1D Cmp Att Cmp% Yds Y/A TD Int Sk 1D Rate ANY/A 1-3 2849 1.89 4.99 1534 4976 3.2 163 935 758 1251 60.6 6795 5.4 135 19 64 695 104.9 6.6 All 2017 plays with 1-3 yds to go 4-6 3348 5.08 6.63 1114 4505 4.0 46 342 1283 2072 61.9 12485 6.0 133 52 160 1005 89.7 5.7 All 2017 plays with 4-6 yds to go 7-9 3176 7.94 7.48 970 4410 4.5 24 204 1228 2052 59.8 13238 6.5 105 53 153 754 85.1 5.9 All 2017 plays with 7-9 yds to go 10+ 15043 11.05 6.81 6698 28301 4.2 50 780 4985 7805 63.9 55073 7.1 201 193 538 2175 83.0 6.0 All 2017 plays with 10+ yds to go Support us without the ads? Go Ad-Free. Splits by Down & Yards to Go Rushing Passing Down & Yards to Go #Pl ToGo Yds Att Yds Y/A TD 1D Cmp Att Cmp% Yds Y/A TD Int Sk 1D Rate ANY/A 1st & 10 9762 10.00 6.56 5154 21470 4.2 44 621 2815 4333 65 32594 7.5 130 89 273 1412 89.0 6.8 All 2017 plays with 1st & 10 yds to go 1st & >10 415 17.97 6.29 166 694 4.2 0 8 152 240 63.3 1350 5.6 4 4 9 21 76.9 5.0 All 2017 plays with 1st & >10 yds to go 1st & <10 619 4.77 2.44 386 680 1.8 87 101 122 229 53.3 573 2.5 77 5 4 95 89.5 8.1 All 2017 plays with 1st & <10 yds to go 2nd & 1-4 1168 1.99 4.86 720 2372 3.3 59 425 253 428 59.1 2466 5.8 30 8 20 234 90.9 6.0 All 2017 plays with 2nd & 1-4 yds to go 2nd & 4-6 1737 5.10 6.15 827 3364 4.1 20 241 557 861 64.7 5400 6.3 54 15 49 419 95.8 6.4 All 2017 plays with 2nd & 4-6 yds to go 2nd & 7-9 1946 7.95 7.11 752 3339 4.4 9 147 736 1131 65.1 7642 6.8 50 16 62 404 93.3 6.6 All 2017 plays with 2nd & 7-9 yds to go 2nd & 10+ 3243 12.13 7.02 1136 4740 4.2 2 117 1275 1997 63.8 12945 6.5 38 59 110 447 76.3 5.2 All 2017 plays with 2nd & 10+ yds to go 3rd & 1-4 1286 1.89 6.01 561 2245 4.0 37 380 425 684 62.1 3914 5.7 58 10 41 388 99.9 6.4 All 2017 plays with 3rd & 1-4 yds to go 3rd & 4-6 1298 5.07 7.94 143 811 5.7 7 70 640 1053 60.8 6278 6.0 53 30 102 516 82.5 5.2 All 2017 plays with 3rd & 4-6 yds to go 3rd & 7-9 1021 7.92 9.07 110 719 6.5 1 39 450 824 54.6 5278 6.4 38 31 87 326 74.0 5.1 All 2017 plays with 3rd & 7-9 yds to go 3rd & 10+ 1562 13.40 8.29 235 1359 5.8 4 33 721 1186 60.8 7902 6.7 27 36 141 282 75.4 5.1 All 2017 plays with 3rd & 10+ yds to go 4th & 1-4 183 1.48 4.36 109 292 2.7 12 74 37 71 52.1 357 5.0 8 1 3 34 98.2 6.4 All 2017 plays with 4th & 1-4 yds to go 4th & 4-6 77 5.04 8.79 3 -6 -2.0 0 1 34 65 52.3 419 6.4 3 4 7 29 62.3 4.2 All 2017 plays with 4th & 4-6 yds to go 4th & 7-9 36 7.53 12.09 6 75 12.5 1 3 14 28 50 191 6.8 2 4 2 9 56.4 1.7 All 2017 plays with 4th & 7-9 yds to go 4th & 10+ 61 13.70 9.14 7 38 5.4 0 1 22 49 44.9 282 5.8 2 5 5 13 37.5 1.8 All 2017 plays with 4th & 10+ yds to go 3rd/4th & short 1469 1.84 5.80 670 2537 3.8 49 454 462 755 61.2 4271 5.7 66 11 44 422 99.7 6.4 All 2017 plays with 3rd/4th & short yds to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bing Bong Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 14 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said: those big plays have been taken out of the games of Taylor and McCoy by the lack of defensive attention given to their sluggish WR corps and instead focused on the LOS. they are too slow. Want a guy to keep the defense honest at the very least, better yet be a legitimate home run threat any given play (not Kaelin Clay please). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aceman_16 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 (edited) 20 hours ago, Foreigner said: Most people on this board and the media have been saying this year that TT is slowing down the Offense and is failing to move the chains, but here are the top QB passers on 3rd down in the NFL this year. Completion % Yards Passer Rating Josh McGowan 70.8 1,043 103.6 Drew Brees 67.5 859 94.2 Carson Wentz 66.4 1,043 125.7 Tyrod Taylor 65.4 707 88.0 Case Keenum 64.9 771 86.6 All of the top 5 QBs have played in 12 games I believe except Taylor who has been in just over 11(injury last week and Peterman game.) Looking at these figures, it would seem our problem is more on 1st and 2nd down, so place the blame where you wish. lol... I dont count a 3 yard check down completion on a 3 and 17 successful. Nice try though. PS how about a 3rd down throw for a 1st down completion percentage NOW that is a better stat! Edited December 8, 2017 by aceman_16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CountDorkula Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Stat PAdding: 3rd and 10+. Tyrod checks down to the RB to pick up 7-10 Yards. Punt. That happened three times in one game. Sure he completes a lot of passes and get "yards" but is not converting 3rd downs, which is teh most important stat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreigner Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 As far as not converting 3rd downs, I am looking at the above first chart and see on passing split by downs, then on the 2nd chart which I am assuming is for the two plus years; Attempts lst Downs 1st Downs 4802 1528 2nd Downs 4417 1504 3rd Downs 3747 1512 So what I am seeing is over 1,000 less passing attempts, the 1st Downs are about equal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 How many of those completions were thrown short of the first down and not converted? I’d wager that of those QBs listed, he has the lowest 3rd down conversion rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 22 minutes ago, CountDorkula said: Stat PAdding: 3rd and 10+. Tyrod checks down to the RB to pick up 7-10 Yards. Punt. That happened three times in one game. Sure he completes a lot of passes and get "yards" but is not converting 3rd downs, which is teh most important stat. Taylor has actually converted a lot of third downs but they are constantly in third down situations because they don't have enough players who can make big plays so as to avoid third downs. That means the gains on first and second down are small and then on third down he has a choice to throw beneath or far over the sticks and when your players can't win matchups in the passing game it's a loss either way. It can't be overstated enough what losing a legit deep threat in Watkins has done to this offense..........has really made Dennison look stupid and made Tyrod and Shady look like guys that can't produce even average per attempt results at their positions. Taylor is averaging 6.5 ypa passing and McCoy is at 4.1 ypa running the football. Taylor was an 8+ ypa when Watkins was healthy and McCoy averaged 5.4 ypa last year. They are both going to end up with good performance #'s like QB rating and TD/Int for Taylor and total yards for McCoy........but their impacts have been marginalized by the lack of assistance from the WR corps in the deep passing game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CountDorkula Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, BADOLBILZ said: Its everybody's fault except Tyrod Taylor!!!!!! Shortened it for you. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, NewEra said: How many of those completions were thrown short of the first down and not converted? I’d wager that of those QBs listed, he has the lowest 3rd down conversion rate Would it change your perception if you were wrong about that? My guess is nope. The criticism of Taylor has been a mobile goal post since he's been here..........remember when he didn't throw over the middle? He didn't throw over the middle because the objective offensively was to throw deep and then nail comeback sideline routes underneath the bailing secondary. Combination of ball security and big plays. This year he's been accused of not being able to throw outside the hashes. We've reached the point where he gets no credit for running for a first down on third and long.........even though there is little more demoralizing for a defense than to give up a long conversion run to a QB on third down. The guy has clear shortcomings but they are grossly overstated by his haters on here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreigner Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 I think the smartest thing said on this thread was just said, and the WRs are the worse in the NFL. Zay Jones one day may be a NFL #1 or #2, but he is not now. We got hosed by Carolina in the Benjamin deal. He was injury prone with them, and has been close to useless so far. You don't fight for a playoff spot and give up a supposed top receiver for a couple of draft picks. If he was going to be so useful so far, are you going to tell me he couldn't be picked up by anyone else. Oh I know, McDermott and Beane were buddies, and they were trying to help out the Bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy KGB Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said: The story of those seasons is simple........you can't throw for yardage that you've already consumed on the ground. When you lead the entire league in big plays offensively you are getting excellent production from the QB position..........manufactured by scheme/coaching or not........you don't want to hear that because you hate Taylor but it happened. By their actions the Bills seemingly wanted Taylor to prove he was a $30M QB this year and they wanted McCoy to be a 190 pound 300-carry plow horse and while on the whole they haven't been "bad" statistically, they've had some bad games and both have failed at being as-productive as in 2015-2016 while being asked to be something they are not. Realistically.........they were both just caught in the crossfire of the ever-evolving "process" of coach McD..........by summer he had decided to play Jauron Ball and that low-tide approach brings practically everyone down statistically. Only a fool could have thought that they could circumvent having the league's worst WR corps and not have it affect Taylor and McCoy. Setting up a tent on Mount Wrong ? Offense was ???? vs 49ers and Browns last year, we need to build the team Around Tyrod ??? Nevermind the other games where Tyrod Looked like Tyrod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 16 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: Would it change your perception if you were wrong about that? My guess is nope. The criticism of Taylor has been a mobile goal post since he's been here..........remember when he didn't throw over the middle? He didn't throw over the middle because the objective offensively was to throw deep and then nail comeback sideline routes underneath the bailing secondary. Combination of ball security and big plays. This year he's been accused of not being able to throw outside the hashes. We've reached the point where he gets no credit for running for a first down on third and long.........even though there is little more demoralizing for a defense than to give up a long conversion run to a QB on third down. The guy has clear shortcomings but they are grossly overstated by his haters on here. I actually like the guy. I just don’t think his passing acumen is high enough to be our QB going forward with a larger contract. Good guy, good leader from what I’ve gathered. Makes plays that no other qb can make. Just doesn’t get it done as a passing the football and sustaining drives with his arm. Take away his mobility, which teams have been able to do and he’s not good enough to win games. I give him a lot of credit where credit is deserved. I also point out that he’s just not good enough of a passer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreigner Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 Jared Goff who the Bills beat on the road last year, was not very good , and suddenly he gets coaches and players this year to work with, and he may go to the Pro Bowl and Super Bowl. You don't think it has made any difference that he has had Watkins and Woods to throw it to? Sure, Taylor has some limitations, but with the right system, coaches and players he is a NFL QB, and right now he has none of that with the Bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Foreigner said: Jared Goff who the Bills beat on the road last year, was not very good , and suddenly he gets coaches and players this year to work with, and he may go to the Pro Bowl and Super Bowl. You don't think it has made any difference that he has had Watkins and Woods to throw it to? Sure, Taylor has some limitations, but with the right system, coaches and players he is a NFL QB, and right now he has none of that with the Bills. The difference between the two is that with the right system, coaches, and players Taylor is a mid-bottom tier NFL QB and Goff may go the Super Bowl. Like you say, that's the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, GoBills808 said: The difference between the two is that with the right system, coaches, and players Taylor is a mid-bottom tier NFL QB and Goff may go the Super Bowl. Like you say, that's the difference. Well that and the Rams have the 4th best DVOA defense at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreigner Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 That is what I said, having the right players, and that includes the Defense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 So apparently we we've been watching a top QB all along and just didn't know it? I guess I'll to pay more attention next time we get one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 18 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: Well that and the Rams have the 4th best DVOA defense at the moment. 100% agree. They play complimentary football and their record reflects that. The Bills do not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 21 hours ago, Foreigner said: One thing is we are in 3rd and long much more than we should be, and that's on the players and OC. I don't know the number of negative 1st and 2nd down runs this year, but I bet a lot. I bet we league the league in negative rushes by a RB on 1st and 2nd down. I can't find that stat, anywhere, but there's the biggest reason we have the longest distance to go on 3rd down of probably any other team in the entire NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaviorPeterman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 22 hours ago, keepthefaith said: Show me the stats on converting a first down on 3rd down pass plays. This x100 Also all those other QB's on the list (including McCown) don't have leagues worst passing offense or anywhere close to it like Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 21 hours ago, GoBills808 said: My guess would actually be that Taylor converts passing 3rd downs at an above-average rate efficiency wise, but that his overall attempts on third down are fewer than league average. Taylor has 107 "passing plays" on 3rd down. Keep in mind, those account for sacks, as well. Tom Brady has 110 passing plays. So no, Taylor's overall attempts on 3rd down really aren't that low, especially given the fact that he sat out roughly the equivalent of an entire game at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, transplantbillsfan said: Taylor has 107 "passing plays" on 3rd down. Keep in mind, those account for sacks, as well. Tom Brady has 110 passing plays. So no, Taylor's overall attempts on 3rd down really aren't that low, especially given the fact that he sat out roughly the equivalent of an entire game at this point. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, GoBills808 said: Link? The same link I provided in my previous post: http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=098&type=Passing&year=2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: The same link I provided in my previous post: http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=098&type=Passing&year=2017 Interesting. I still don't think any of these stats say much about how 'good' a given QB may or may not be, but the fact that we're throwing on 3rd down a bunch relative to the rest of the league is interesting. It may be like you say...because we have so many plays go for zero or negative yardage on 1st and 2nd down, our third down to-go distance is farther than average. Do you have that figure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 (edited) 17 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Interesting. I still don't think any of these stats say much about how 'good' a given QB may or may not be, but the fact that we're throwing on 3rd down a bunch relative to the rest of the league is interesting. It may be like you say...because we have so many plays go for zero or negative yardage on 1st and 2nd down, our third down to-go distance is farther than average. Do you have that figure? Well, go here: http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=047&type=Passing&year=2017 You'll see that by percentage Taylor has a higher percentage of 3rd and 8+ yards to go on 3rd down. Rivers has more, but also has more 3rd down attempts so he has a lower %. Stafford has the same number, but also has more 3rd downs. I can't find an exact number anywhere for distance to go on 3rd down. I'm pretty sure Happydays put something out a few weeks ago regarding Footballoutsiders metric ALEX that showed a stat that measured that and Taylor had the most or 2nd most in the league at that point in terms of distance to the sticks. I can't say it definitively, but just watching how often our run game gets stuffed for negative yardage I'll just call it a gut feeling. I'd put money on us being top 3 in most negative yard runs on 1st and 2nd down, though. Edited December 8, 2017 by transplantbillsfan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 22 hours ago, PetermanThrew5Picks said: Dang, he also scrambles for a 1st often too. Could probably rate him even higher based on that. Josh McCown has been very underrated the last few years. Too bad we never got him when we pushed for him. Yes, Taylor also scrambles on 3rd down. In fact, Taylor has scrambled on 3rd down 15 times. He converted 10 of those scrambles for 1st downs. Overall, on 3rd down passing plays, which include plays where the ball leaves his hand, sacks, AND scrambles, Taylor's 3rd down conversion % is 43.4% as he is 53/122 on such plays. A 43.4% conversion rate on 3rd down is actually good. Taylor also has had a few designed runs he's converted on 3rd down, including 1 rushing TD. 21 hours ago, ScottLaw said: How often are they in 3rd and long? 55% of the time he's asked to pass on 3rd down it's for 8+ yards... higher % than any other QB in the NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 17 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: Here's another question ... WHY are they often in 3rd and long? Doesn't an awful lot of that have to do with how bad the offense (including Tyrod) are on 1st and 2nd downs? Yeah, it's how bad the offense is on 1st and 2nd downs, obviously. Just think of all those negative rushing plays by McCoy and Tolbert on 1st and 2nd down. If you were even remotely objective you'd know that the Lion's share of blame for our constant 8+ yards to go on 3rd down goes to our inconsistent (at best) to woeful rushing attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 hours ago, Air it out Fitzy said: Setting up a tent on Mount Wrong ? Offense was ???? vs 49ers and Browns last year, we need to build the team Around Tyrod ??? Nevermind the other games where Tyrod Looked like Tyrod. See, statements like this really makes me think you don't actually watch the games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 http://www.footballoutsiders.com/alex/2017/2017-alex-midseason-report Okay, and this is a few weeks old... it was actually generated 2 days before the Chargers game, so it doesn't include the half from the Chargers game Taylor played, the Chiefs game, or the half+ from the Pats game, but you'll see that Taylor is tied, at that point, for the 3rd most "average need yards for a first down" on 3rd down. So, again, we have work to do on 1st and 2nd down moreso than 3rd down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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