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Top QBs in the NFL on 3rd down

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Most people on this board and the media have been saying this year that TT is slowing down the Offense and

is failing to move the chains, but here are the top QB passers on 3rd down in the NFL this year. 

                                        Completion %           Yards               Passer Rating

Josh McGowan                      70.8                  1,043                       103.6

Drew Brees                             67.5                      859                         94.2

Carson Wentz                        66.4                   1,043                       125.7

Tyrod Taylor                           65.4                      707                         88.0

Case Keenum                        64.9                      771                         86.6

 

All of the top 5 QBs have played in 12 games I believe  except Taylor who has been in just over 11(injury last week and

Peterman game.)  Looking at these figures, it would seem our problem is more on 1st and 2nd down, so place

the blame where you wish.

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10 minutes ago, Foreigner said:

Most people on this board and the media have been saying this year that TT is slowing down the Offense and

is failing to move the chains, but here are the top QB passers on 3rd down in the NFL this year. 

                                        Completion %           Yards               Passer Rating

Josh McGowan                      70.8                  1,043                       103.6

Drew Brees                             67.5                      859                         94.2

Carson Wentz                        66.4                   1,043                       125.7

Tyrod Taylor                           65.4                      707                         88.0

Case Keenum                        64.9                      771                         86.6

 

All of the top 5 QBs have played in 12 games I believe  except Taylor who has been in just over 11(injury last week and

Peterman game.)  Looking at these figures, it would seem our problem is more on 1st and 2nd down, so place

the blame where you wish.

League avg is 59.7 % and 81.5 rating.

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Top 5 in order of comp % ? 4 yd check downs pad that stat. How about in order of 3rd down passing conversion rate? Bet that stat tells a different story.

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This is probably the worst use of statistics I've seen yet. How many 3rd downs does he CONVERT. That's all that matters. The stats say, not too many. /thread

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One thing is we are in 3rd and long much more than we should be, and that's on the players

and OC. I  don't know the number of negative 1st and 2nd down runs this year, but I bet a lot.

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13 minutes ago, Luka said:

This is probably the worst use of statistics I've seen yet. How many 3rd downs does he CONVERT. That's all that matters. The stats say, not too many. /thread

My guess would actually be that Taylor converts passing 3rd downs at an above-average rate efficiency wise, but that his overall attempts on third down are fewer than league average. 

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32 minutes ago, Bakin said:

I think we also lead the league in 3 and outs??

Not sure about the total number, but we're 21st in 3 & Outs per Drive. NYG are 32nd and they have 6 more drives on the year than us.

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2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

My guess would actually be that Taylor converts passing 3rd downs at an above-average rate efficiency wise, but that his overall attempts on third down are fewer than league average. 

 We are 31st in passing first downs. That's TOTAL passing first downs. So I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the passing 3rd down conversions are pretty low.

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1 hour ago, Foreigner said:

pMost people on this board and the media have been saying this year that TT is slowing down the Offense and

is failing to move the chains, but here are the top QB passers on 3rd down in the NFL this year. 

                                        Completion %           Yards               Passer Rating

Josh McGowan                      70.8                  1,043                       103.6

Drew Brees                             67.5                      859                         94.2

Carson Wentz                        66.4                   1,043                       125.7

Tyrod Taylor                           65.4                      707                         88.0

Case Keenum                        64.9                      771                         86.6

 

All of the top 5 QBs have played in 12 games I believe  except Taylor who has been in just over 11(injury last week and

Peterman game.)  Looking at these figures, it would seem our problem is more on 1st and 2nd down, so place

the blame where you wish.

I am not a TT hater at all, but passer rating is very negatively affected by interceptions , and as we know he doesn't throw a lot of those. TT on third and 12 will throw a dump off for 10 yards. That may look good for the passer rating, but it really isn't that effective.

 

Passer rating also doesn't factor in sacks or scrambles. There are times where his rating should be up because he runs for first downs, but there are also times where it should be down because he will either get sacked frequently, or run out of bounds short of the first down

Edited by billsfan11

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1 hour ago, Foreigner said:

Most people on this board and the media have been saying this year that TT is slowing down the Offense and

is failing to move the chains, but here are the top QB passers on 3rd down in the NFL this year. 

                                        Completion %           Yards               Passer Rating

Josh McGowan                      70.8                  1,043                       103.6

Drew Brees                             67.5                      859                         94.2

Carson Wentz                        66.4                   1,043                       125.7

Tyrod Taylor                           65.4                      707                         88.0

Case Keenum                        64.9                      771                         86.6

 

All of the top 5 QBs have played in 12 games I believe  except Taylor who has been in just over 11(injury last week and

Peterman game.)  Looking at these figures, it would seem our problem is more on 1st and 2nd down, so place

the blame where you wish.

Yet we see the Bills go 3 and out how many times?  

 

How does anyone justify that?

37 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Not sure about the total number, but we're 21st in 3 & Outs per Drive. NYG are 32nd and they have 6 more drives on the year than us.

But the previous poster indicated how Great Taylor is on third down passing. 

 

Why dont we pass more then?   

 

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59 minutes ago, Luka said:

 We are 31st in passing first downs. That's TOTAL passing first downs. So I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the passing 3rd down conversions are pretty low.

we always run those damn draw plays on 3rd and long.

 

I mean this graphic says nothing about actually getting first downs. Defenses will give Tyrod a completion for 10 if it's 3rd and 12.

Edited by PetermanThrew5Picks

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Oh great, more stats to show that TT is a top 5 QB in the NFL.

 

Too bad he doesn't pass the "eye" test.

That's the test where you actually watch the game and see what a disaster he can be.

 

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2 minutes ago, B Fan in LA said:

 

Oh great, more stats to show that TT is a top 5 QB in the NFL.

 

Too bad he doesn't pass the "eye" test.

That's the test where you actually watch the game and see what a disaster he can be.

 

 

He doesn't even pass the Forrest Whitaker's bad eye test.

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1 hour ago, Luka said:

This is probably the worst use of statistics I've seen yet. How many 3rd downs does he CONVERT. That's all that matters. The stats say, not too many. /thread

How often are they in 3rd and long? 

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2 hours ago, Foreigner said:

Most people on this board and the media have been saying this year that TT is slowing down the Offense and

is failing to move the chains, but here are the top QB passers on 3rd down in the NFL this year. 

                                        Completion %           Yards               Passer Rating

Josh McGowan                      70.8                  1,043                       103.6

Drew Brees                             67.5                      859                         94.2

Carson Wentz                        66.4                   1,043                       125.7

Tyrod Taylor                           65.4                      707                         88.0

Case Keenum                        64.9                      771                         86.6

 

All of the top 5 QBs have played in 12 games I believe  except Taylor who has been in just over 11(injury last week and

Peterman game.)  Looking at these figures, it would seem our problem is more on 1st and 2nd down, so place

the blame where you wish.

 

These numbers are deceiving...typically we will have one drive a game where we convert 5 or 6 3rd downs and then score a TD and then fail to convert another 3rd down for multiple drives.

 

Numbers still look good because when you go 3 and out a bunch of times in a row you only have 1 3rd down a drive getting added in.

 

Also quite a few of TT's TD passes have been on 3rd down as well which helps but it in no way tells the whole story.

 

Stats can show anything you want them to. Its people's jobs to understand their validity by watching the game.

 

If a company brags about having a 99% on time delivery rate but its because they make sure they limit the number of packages they deliver, are they more successful than a company with a 90% on time delivery rate that really push the limits by taking on more work than they can complete in the allotted timeframe?

 

This is what you are showing us with Tyrod's stats on 3rd down...he is the company with the 99% on time delivery rate(ie, completing checkdowns to RBs for 5 yards when we need 8 versus another QB who tries to make a play and get a first down but might throw incomplete or throw an INT).

 

 

Edited by matter2003
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Just now, Gugny said:

 

He doesn't even pass the Forrest Whitaker's bad eye test.

 

IMG_1140.JPG

4 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

These numbers are deceiving...typically we will have one drive a game where we convert 5 or 6 3rd downs and then score a TD and then fail to convert another 3rd down for multiple drives.

 

Numbers still look good because when you go 3 and out a bunch of times in a row you only have 1 3rd down a drive getting added in.

 

Also quite a few of TT's TD passes have been on 3rd down as well which helps but it in no way tells the whole story.

 

Stats can show anything you want them to. Its people's jobs to understand their validity by watching the game.

 

 

Good post.

 

Which is why heat maps were annoying as !@#$ the last two seasons.

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