Top QBs in the NFL on 3rd down

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

25 minutes ago, Buffalo30 said:

Dump passes to the running back give him a really nice completion percentage...this stat means absolutely nothing lol

Saw Brees do that last night ..  it looks just as bad as it does with Buffalo.  

[Dante]

16 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

He doesn't even pass the Forrest Whitaker's bad eye test.

Ouch!

[The Now Moment]

6 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

Saw Brees do that last night ..  it looks just as bad as it does with Buffalo.  

With the faster linebackers in the league now...gotta throw it past the first down line on third down

[Dante]

That pick at the goal line last week on the opening drive was the final, final, final nail for me. Completely deflating the team.  I don't even get upset at this kind of thing any more. It's just Tyrod. Hi-end backup QB. Can't expect anything more than that realistically .

[mikemac2001]

Fake stats 

 

3rd and 15 and tyrod checks down for a 8 yard gain = awesome passer rating

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, joesixpack said:

 

28th in passing yards 2015

30th in passing yards 2016

 

But keep climbing Mount Wrong. You'll reach the summit someday.

 

 

The story of those seasons is simple........you can't throw for yardage that you've already consumed on the ground.

 

When you lead the entire league in big plays offensively you are getting excellent production from the QB position..........manufactured by scheme/coaching or not........you don't want to hear that because you hate Taylor but it happened.

 

By their actions the Bills seemingly wanted Taylor to prove he was a $30M QB this year and they wanted McCoy to be a 190 pound 300-carry plow horse and while on the whole they haven't been "bad" statistically,   they've had some bad games and both have failed at being as-productive as in 2015-2016 while being asked to be something they are not.   

 

Realistically.........they were both just caught in the crossfire of the ever-evolving "process" of coach McD..........by summer he had decided to play Jauron Ball and that low-tide approach brings practically everyone down statistically.

 

Only a fool could have thought that they could circumvent having the league's worst WR corps and not have it affect Taylor and McCoy.

 

 

 

   

[Mat68]

19 hours ago, Foreigner said:

Most people on this board and the media have been saying this year that TT is slowing down the Offense and

is failing to move the chains, but here are the top QB passers on 3rd down in the NFL this year. 

                                        Completion %           Yards               Passer Rating

Josh McGowan                      70.8                  1,043                       103.6

Drew Brees                             67.5                      859                         94.2

Carson Wentz                        66.4                   1,043                       125.7

Tyrod Taylor                           65.4                      707                         88.0

Case Keenum                        64.9                      771                         86.6

 

All of the top 5 QBs have played in 12 games I believe  except Taylor who has been in just over 11(injury last week and

Peterman game.)  Looking at these figures, it would seem our problem is more on 1st and 2nd down, so place

the blame where you wish.

Still Buffalo is 13th in the league in 3rd down conversion %.  So he is the 5th rated in Completion %.  Go back and watch the NO games.  Taylor is 4/5 on thrid down with the one in completion was an INT. However, none of those completions went for a first down.  On third and long 8 yards or longer Taylor is 19th 27% 13/48 conversation rate.  That is the bigger issue  Brady is at 44% Dalton is second at 42% and Wentz is third at 39%.  Thrid and under 5 yards he is top 10.  Take away his threat of running to pick it up or the team calling a run his production of converting is way down.

Edited December 8, 2017 by Mat68

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

10 minutes ago, mikemac2001 said:

Fake stats 

 

3rd and 15 and tyrod checks down for a 8 yard gain = awesome passer rating

Alternate Stats man...   Lets get it right 

[H2o]

Whom is this Josh McGowan you speak of? He should be leading the MVP race, no?

[CodeMonkey]

19 hours ago, keepthefaith said:

Show me the stats on converting a first down on 3rd down pass plays. 

3rd and 20 and you check down for the short meaningless completion makes you look good in that one particular stat, but it's still a 3 and out

[Big Gun]

Splits by Down

				Rushing					Passing
Down	#Pl	ToGo	Yds	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD	1D	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	Y/A	TD	Int	Sk	1D	Rate	ANY/A
1st	311	10.05	5.76	168	715	4.3	2	21	79	128	61.7	783	6.1	4	3	15	35	79.7	5.1	All Bills plays on 1st down
2nd	250	8.71	5.33	127	444	3.5	3	25	71	116	61.2	643	5.5	3	1	7	33	81.2	5.3	All Bills plays on 2nd down
3rd	180	8.02	6.83	52	305	5.9	2	28	73	116	62.9	651	5.6	5	5	12	46	74.3	4.1	All Bills plays on 3rd down
4th	10	5.50	2.17	3	0	.0	1	1	2	6	33.3	13	2.2	1	0	1	1	81.9	4.7	All Bills plays on 4th down

 

Splits by Yards to Go

				Rushing					Passing
Yards to Go	#Pl	ToGo	Yds	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD	1D	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	Y/A	TD	Int	Sk	1D	Rate	ANY/A
1-3	95	1.88	4.79	57	241	4.2	6	33	22	36	61.1	147	4.1	4	0	2	20	107.1	6.0	All Bills plays with 1-3 yds to go
4-6	90	5.07	4.51	37	105	2.8	0	8	30	47	63.8	229	4.9	3	2	6	23	79.1	3.8	All Bills plays with 4-6 yds to go
7-9	89	7.98	6.67	30	159	5.3	0	7	31	56	55.4	261	4.7	4	2	3	19	76.6	4.3	All Bills plays with 7-9 yds to go
10+	477	11.44	6.15	226	959	4.2	2	27	142	227	62.6	1453	6.4	2	5	24	53	74.6	5.1	All Bills plays with 10+ yds to go

Splits by Down & Yards to Go

 

				Rushing					Passing
Down & Yards to Go	#Pl	ToGo	Yds	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD	1D	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	Y/A	TD	Int	Sk	1D	Rate	ANY/A
1st & 10	281	10.00	6.03	152	683	4.5	2	21	72	115	62.6	740	6.4	0	2	14	31	73.8	5.0	All Bills plays with 1st & 10 yds to go
1st & >10	12	18.92	4.11	7	21	3.0	0	0	2	5	40	16	3.2	0	0	0	0	48.8	3.2	All Bills plays with 1st & >10 yds to go
1st & <10	18	4.89	2.53	9	11	1.2	0	0	5	8	62.5	27	3.4	4	1	1	4	68.2	6.9	All Bills plays with 1st & <10 yds to go
2nd & 1-4	38	1.92	4.52	25	84	3.4	3	12	8	13	61.5	65	5.0	0	0	0	7	74.2	5.0	All Bills plays with 2nd & 1-4 yds to go
2nd & 4-6	46	5.02	4.49	29	75	2.6	0	5	12	17	70.6	109	6.4	2	1	0	8	102.3	6.1	All Bills plays with 2nd & 4-6 yds to go
2nd & 7-9	50	7.98	6.14	22	110	5.0	0	4	14	27	51.9	111	4.1	1	0	1	7	74.8	4.7	All Bills plays with 2nd & 7-9 yds to go
2nd & 10+	116	12.72	5.67	51	175	3.4	0	4	37	59	62.7	358	6.1	0	0	6	11	79.6	5.5	All Bills plays with 2nd & 10+ yds to go
3rd & 1-4	46	1.87	6.13	25	164	6.6	2	20	13	19	68.4	81	4.3	3	0	2	12	116.4	6.7	All Bills plays with 3rd & 1-4 yds to go
3rd & 4-6	35	5.14	5.31	5	20	4.0	0	3	16	26	61.5	118	4.5	0	0	4	14	72.3	3.9	All Bills plays with 3rd & 4-6 yds to go
3rd & 7-9	34	7.97	7.61	6	41	6.8	0	3	15	26	57.7	134	5.2	1	2	2	10	52.4	2.3	All Bills plays with 3rd & 7-9 yds to go
3rd & 10+	65	13.95	7.80	16	80	5.0	0	2	29	45	64.4	318	7.1	1	3	4	10	64.9	4.1	All Bills plays with 3rd & 10+ yds to go
4th & 1-4	5	1.40	0.00	3	0	.0	1	1	0	2	0	0	.0	0	0	0	0	39.6	.0	All Bills plays with 4th & 1-4 yds to go
4th & 4-6	2	5.00	-8.00	0	0		0	0	0	1	0	-8	-8.0	0	0	1	0	39.6	-4.0	All Bills plays with 4th & 4-6 yds to go
4th & 10+	3	12.67	10.50	0	0		0	0	2	3	66.7	21	7.0	1	0	0	1	126.4	13.7	All Bills plays with 4th & 10+ yds to go
3rd/4th & short	51	1.82	5.70	28	164	5.9	3	21	13	21	61.9	81	3.9	3	0	2	12	109.3	6.1	All Bills plays with 3rd/4th & short yds to go

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[Big Gun]

League Averages

 

Splits by Down

 

				Rushing					Passing
Down	#Pl	ToGo	Yds	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD	1D	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	Y/A	TD	Int	Sk	1D	Rate	ANY/A
1st	10796	10.01	6.32	5706	22844	4.0	131	730	3089	4802	64.3	34517	7.2	211	98	286	1528	91.8	6.7	All 2017 plays on 1st down
2nd	8094	8.15	6.52	3435	13815	4.0	90	930	2821	4417	63.9	28453	6.4	172	98	241	1504	85.9	5.9	All 2017 plays on 2nd down
3rd	5167	7.36	7.71	1049	5134	4.9	49	522	2236	3747	59.7	23372	6.2	176	107	371	1512	81.6	5.4	All 2017 plays on 3rd down
4th	357	4.95	6.51	125	399	3.2	13	79	107	213	50.2	1249	5.9	15	14	17	85	64.5	4.0	All 2017 plays on 4th down

Splits by Yards to Go

 

				Rushing					Passing
Yards to Go	#Pl	ToGo	Yds	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD	1D	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	Y/A	TD	Int	Sk	1D	Rate	ANY/A
1-3	2849	1.89	4.99	1534	4976	3.2	163	935	758	1251	60.6	6795	5.4	135	19	64	695	104.9	6.6	All 2017 plays with 1-3 yds to go
4-6	3348	5.08	6.63	1114	4505	4.0	46	342	1283	2072	61.9	12485	6.0	133	52	160	1005	89.7	5.7	All 2017 plays with 4-6 yds to go
7-9	3176	7.94	7.48	970	4410	4.5	24	204	1228	2052	59.8	13238	6.5	105	53	153	754	85.1	5.9	All 2017 plays with 7-9 yds to go
10+	15043	11.05	6.81	6698	28301	4.2	50	780	4985	7805	63.9	55073	7.1	201	193	538	2175	83.0	6.0	All 2017 plays with 10+ yds to go

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Splits by Down & Yards to Go

				Rushing					Passing
Down & Yards to Go	#Pl	ToGo	Yds	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD	1D	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	Y/A	TD	Int	Sk	1D	Rate	ANY/A
1st & 10	9762	10.00	6.56	5154	21470	4.2	44	621	2815	4333	65	32594	7.5	130	89	273	1412	89.0	6.8	All 2017 plays with 1st & 10 yds to go
1st & >10	415	17.97	6.29	166	694	4.2	0	8	152	240	63.3	1350	5.6	4	4	9	21	76.9	5.0	All 2017 plays with 1st & >10 yds to go
1st & <10	619	4.77	2.44	386	680	1.8	87	101	122	229	53.3	573	2.5	77	5	4	95	89.5	8.1	All 2017 plays with 1st & <10 yds to go
2nd & 1-4	1168	1.99	4.86	720	2372	3.3	59	425	253	428	59.1	2466	5.8	30	8	20	234	90.9	6.0	All 2017 plays with 2nd & 1-4 yds to go
2nd & 4-6	1737	5.10	6.15	827	3364	4.1	20	241	557	861	64.7	5400	6.3	54	15	49	419	95.8	6.4	All 2017 plays with 2nd & 4-6 yds to go
2nd & 7-9	1946	7.95	7.11	752	3339	4.4	9	147	736	1131	65.1	7642	6.8	50	16	62	404	93.3	6.6	All 2017 plays with 2nd & 7-9 yds to go
2nd & 10+	3243	12.13	7.02	1136	4740	4.2	2	117	1275	1997	63.8	12945	6.5	38	59	110	447	76.3	5.2	All 2017 plays with 2nd & 10+ yds to go
3rd & 1-4	1286	1.89	6.01	561	2245	4.0	37	380	425	684	62.1	3914	5.7	58	10	41	388	99.9	6.4	All 2017 plays with 3rd & 1-4 yds to go
3rd & 4-6	1298	5.07	7.94	143	811	5.7	7	70	640	1053	60.8	6278	6.0	53	30	102	516	82.5	5.2	All 2017 plays with 3rd & 4-6 yds to go
3rd & 7-9	1021	7.92	9.07	110	719	6.5	1	39	450	824	54.6	5278	6.4	38	31	87	326	74.0	5.1	All 2017 plays with 3rd & 7-9 yds to go
3rd & 10+	1562	13.40	8.29	235	1359	5.8	4	33	721	1186	60.8	7902	6.7	27	36	141	282	75.4	5.1	All 2017 plays with 3rd & 10+ yds to go
4th & 1-4	183	1.48	4.36	109	292	2.7	12	74	37	71	52.1	357	5.0	8	1	3	34	98.2	6.4	All 2017 plays with 4th & 1-4 yds to go
4th & 4-6	77	5.04	8.79	3	-6	-2.0	0	1	34	65	52.3	419	6.4	3	4	7	29	62.3	4.2	All 2017 plays with 4th & 4-6 yds to go
4th & 7-9	36	7.53	12.09	6	75	12.5	1	3	14	28	50	191	6.8	2	4	2	9	56.4	1.7	All 2017 plays with 4th & 7-9 yds to go
4th & 10+	61	13.70	9.14	7	38	5.4	0	1	22	49	44.9	282	5.8	2	5	5	13	37.5	1.8	All 2017 plays with 4th & 10+ yds to go
3rd/4th & short	1469	1.84	5.80	670	2537	3.8	49	454	462	755	61.2	4271	5.7	66	11	44	422	99.7	6.4	All 2017 plays with 3rd/4th & short yds to go

[Bing Bong]

14 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

those big plays have been taken out of the games of Taylor and McCoy by the lack of defensive attention given to their sluggish WR corps and instead focused on the LOS. 

they are too slow. Want a guy to keep the defense honest at the very least, better yet be a legitimate home run threat any given play (not Kaelin Clay please).

[aceman_16]

20 hours ago, Foreigner said:

Most people on this board and the media have been saying this year that TT is slowing down the Offense and

is failing to move the chains, but here are the top QB passers on 3rd down in the NFL this year. 

                                        Completion %           Yards               Passer Rating

Josh McGowan                      70.8                  1,043                       103.6

Drew Brees                             67.5                      859                         94.2

Carson Wentz                        66.4                   1,043                       125.7

Tyrod Taylor                           65.4                      707                         88.0

Case Keenum                        64.9                      771                         86.6

 

All of the top 5 QBs have played in 12 games I believe  except Taylor who has been in just over 11(injury last week and

Peterman game.)  Looking at these figures, it would seem our problem is more on 1st and 2nd down, so place

the blame where you wish.

lol... I dont count a 3 yard check down completion on a 3 and 17 successful. Nice try though.

 

PS how about a 3rd down throw for a 1st down completion percentage NOW that is a better stat!

Edited December 8, 2017 by aceman_16

[CountDorkula]

Stat PAdding:

 

3rd and 10+. Tyrod checks down to the RB to pick up 7-10 Yards. Punt. That happened three times in one game. 

 

Sure he completes a lot of passes and get "yards" but is not converting 3rd downs, which is teh most important stat.

[Foreigner]

As far as not converting 3rd downs, I am looking at the above first chart and see on passing

split by downs, then on the 2nd chart which I am assuming is for the two plus years;

 

                         Attempts    lst Downs

1st Downs      4802            1528                                                                                                                                                                                      2nd Downs     4417            1504                                                                                                                                                                                     3rd Downs      3747            1512

 

So what I am seeing is over 1,000 less passing attempts, the 1st Downs are about equal.

[NewEra]

How many of those completions were thrown short of the first down and not converted?  I’d wager that of those QBs listed, he has the lowest 3rd down conversion rate

[BADOLBILZ]

22 minutes ago, CountDorkula said:

Stat PAdding:

 

3rd and 10+. Tyrod checks down to the RB to pick up 7-10 Yards. Punt. That happened three times in one game. 

 

Sure he completes a lot of passes and get "yards" but is not converting 3rd downs, which is teh most important stat.

 

 

Taylor has actually converted a lot of third downs but they are constantly in third down situations because they don't have enough players who can make big plays so as to avoid third downs.

 

That means the gains on first and second down are small and then on third down he has a choice to throw beneath or far over the sticks and when your players can't win matchups in the passing game it's a loss either way.

 

It can't be overstated enough what losing a legit deep threat in Watkins has done to this offense..........has really made Dennison look stupid and made Tyrod and Shady look like guys that can't produce even average per attempt results at their positions.

 

Taylor is averaging 6.5 ypa passing and McCoy is at 4.1 ypa running the football.

 

Taylor was an 8+ ypa when Watkins was healthy and McCoy averaged 5.4 ypa last year.

 

They are both going to end up with good performance #'s like QB rating and TD/Int for Taylor and total yards for McCoy........but their impacts have been marginalized by the lack of assistance from the WR corps in the deep passing game.   

 

 

 

 

[CountDorkula]

Just now, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Its everybody's fault except Tyrod Taylor!!!!!!

 

 

 

 

Shortened it for you. 

[BADOLBILZ]

11 minutes ago, NewEra said:

How many of those completions were thrown short of the first down and not converted?  I’d wager that of those QBs listed, he has the lowest 3rd down conversion rate

 

 

Would it change your perception if you were wrong about that?

 

My guess is nope.

 

The criticism of Taylor has been a mobile goal post since he's been here..........remember when he didn't throw over the middle?

 

He didn't throw over the middle because the objective offensively was to throw deep and then nail comeback sideline routes underneath the bailing secondary.   Combination of ball security and big plays.  

 

This year he's been accused of not being able to throw outside the hashes.

 

We've reached the point where he gets no credit for running for a first down on third and long.........even though there is little more demoralizing for a defense than to give up a long conversion run to a QB on third down.

 

The guy has clear shortcomings but they are grossly overstated by his haters on here.   

[Foreigner]

I think the smartest thing said on this thread was just said, and the WRs are the worse in the NFL.

Zay Jones one day may be a NFL #1 or #2, but he is not now. We got hosed by Carolina in the

Benjamin deal. He was injury prone with them, and has been close to useless so far. You don't

fight for a playoff spot and give up a supposed top receiver for a couple of draft picks. If he was

going to be so useful so far, are you going to tell me he couldn't be picked up by anyone else.

Oh I know, McDermott and Beane were buddies, and they were trying to help out the Bills.  

[Teddy KGB]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The story of those seasons is simple........you can't throw for yardage that you've already consumed on the ground.

 

When you lead the entire league in big plays offensively you are getting excellent production from the QB position..........manufactured by scheme/coaching or not........you don't want to hear that because you hate Taylor but it happened.

 

By their actions the Bills seemingly wanted Taylor to prove he was a $30M QB this year and they wanted McCoy to be a 190 pound 300-carry plow horse and while on the whole they haven't been "bad" statistically,   they've had some bad games and both have failed at being as-productive as in 2015-2016 while being asked to be something they are not.   

 

Realistically.........they were both just caught in the crossfire of the ever-evolving "process" of coach McD..........by summer he had decided to play Jauron Ball and that low-tide approach brings practically everyone down statistically.

 

Only a fool could have thought that they could circumvent having the league's worst WR corps and not have it affect Taylor and McCoy.

 

 

 

   

 

Setting up a tent on Mount Wrong ? 

 

Offense was ???? vs 49ers and Browns last year, we need to build the team Around Tyrod ???

 

Nevermind the other games where Tyrod Looked like Tyrod.

[NewEra]

16 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Would it change your perception if you were wrong about that?

 

My guess is nope.

 

The criticism of Taylor has been a mobile goal post since he's been here..........remember when he didn't throw over the middle?

 

He didn't throw over the middle because the objective offensively was to throw deep and then nail comeback sideline routes underneath the bailing secondary.   Combination of ball security and big plays.  

 

This year he's been accused of not being able to throw outside the hashes.

 

We've reached the point where he gets no credit for running for a first down on third and long.........even though there is little more demoralizing for a defense than to give up a long conversion run to a QB on third down.

 

The guy has clear shortcomings but they are grossly overstated by his haters on here.   

I actually like the guy.  I just don’t think his passing acumen is high enough to be our QB going forward with a larger contract.  Good guy, good leader from what I’ve gathered. Makes plays that no other qb can make.  Just doesn’t get it done as a passing the football and sustaining drives with his arm.  Take away his mobility, which teams have been able to do and he’s not good enough to win games.   I give him a lot of credit where credit is deserved.  I also point out that he’s just not good enough of a passer.  

[Foreigner]

Jared Goff who the Bills beat on the road last year, was not very good , and suddenly he gets coaches

and players this year to work with, and he may go to the Pro Bowl and Super Bowl.

You don't think it has made any difference that he has had Watkins and Woods to throw it to?

Sure, Taylor has some limitations, but with the right system, coaches and players he is a NFL QB,

and right now he has none of that with the Bills.  

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Foreigner said:

Jared Goff who the Bills beat on the road last year, was not very good , and suddenly he gets coaches

and players this year to work with, and he may go to the Pro Bowl and Super Bowl.

You don't think it has made any difference that he has had Watkins and Woods to throw it to?

Sure, Taylor has some limitations, but with the right system, coaches and players he is a NFL QB,

and right now he has none of that with the Bills.  

The difference between the two is that with the right system, coaches, and players Taylor is a mid-bottom tier NFL QB and Goff may go the Super Bowl. Like you say, that's the difference.

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

The difference between the two is that with the right system, coaches, and players Taylor is a mid-bottom tier NFL QB and Goff may go the Super Bowl. Like you say, that's the difference.

Well that and the Rams have the 4th best DVOA defense at the moment.

[Foreigner]

That is what I said, having the right players, and that includes the Defense. 

[SoCal Deek]

So apparently we we've been watching a top QB all along and just didn't know it?  

 

I guess I'll to pay more attention next time we get one.

[GoBills808]

18 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Well that and the Rams have the 4th best DVOA defense at the moment.

100% agree. They play complimentary football and their record reflects that. The Bills do not.

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

21 hours ago, Foreigner said:

One thing is we are in 3rd and long much more than we should be, and that's on the players

and OC. I  don't know the number of negative 1st and 2nd down runs this year, but I bet a lot.

 

I bet we league the league in negative rushes by a RB on 1st and 2nd down.  I can't find that stat, anywhere, but there's the biggest reason we have the longest distance to go on 3rd down of probably any other team in the entire NFL.

[SaviorPeterman]

22 hours ago, keepthefaith said:

Show me the stats on converting a first down on 3rd down pass plays. 

 

This x100

 

Also all those other QB's on the list (including McCown) don't have leagues worst passing offense or anywhere close to it like Buffalo.

[transplantbillsfan]

21 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

My guess would actually be that Taylor converts passing 3rd downs at an above-average rate efficiency wise, but that his overall attempts on third down are fewer than league average. 

 

Taylor has 107 "passing plays" on 3rd down.  Keep in mind, those account for sacks, as well.

 

Tom Brady has 110 passing plays.

 

 

So no, Taylor's overall attempts on 3rd down really aren't that low, especially given the fact that he sat out roughly the equivalent of an entire game at this point.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Taylor has 107 "passing plays" on 3rd down.  Keep in mind, those account for sacks, as well.

 

Tom Brady has 110 passing plays.

 

 

So no, Taylor's overall attempts on 3rd down really aren't that low, especially given the fact that he sat out roughly the equivalent of an entire game at this point.

Link?

[transplantbillsfan]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

Link?

 

The same link I provided in my previous post:

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=098&type=Passing&year=2017

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The same link I provided in my previous post:

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=098&type=Passing&year=2017

Interesting. I still don't think any of these stats say much about how 'good' a given QB may or may not be, but the fact that we're throwing on 3rd down a bunch relative to the rest of the league is interesting. It may be like you say...because we have so many plays go for zero or negative yardage on 1st and 2nd down, our third down to-go distance is farther than average. Do you have that figure?

[transplantbillsfan]

17 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Interesting. I still don't think any of these stats say much about how 'good' a given QB may or may not be, but the fact that we're throwing on 3rd down a bunch relative to the rest of the league is interesting. It may be like you say...because we have so many plays go for zero or negative yardage on 1st and 2nd down, our third down to-go distance is farther than average. Do you have that figure?

 

Well, go here:

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=047&type=Passing&year=2017

 

You'll see that by percentage Taylor has a higher percentage of 3rd and 8+ yards to go on 3rd down.  Rivers has more, but also has more 3rd down attempts so he has a lower %.  Stafford has the same number, but also has more 3rd downs.

 

I can't find an exact number anywhere for distance to go on 3rd down.  I'm pretty sure Happydays put something out a few weeks ago regarding Footballoutsiders metric ALEX that showed a stat that measured that and Taylor had the most or 2nd most in the league at that point in terms of distance to the sticks.

 

I can't say it definitively, but just watching how often our run game gets stuffed for negative yardage I'll just call it a gut feeling.  I'd put money on us being top 3 in most negative yard runs on 1st and 2nd down, though.

Edited December 8, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[transplantbillsfan]

22 hours ago, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

Dang, he also scrambles for a 1st often too. Could probably rate him even higher based on that. 

 

Josh McCown has been very underrated the last few years. Too bad we never got him when we pushed for him.

 

Yes, Taylor also scrambles on 3rd down.

 

In fact, Taylor has scrambled on 3rd down 15 times.  He converted 10 of those scrambles for 1st downs.

 

 

Overall, on 3rd down passing plays, which include plays where the ball leaves his hand, sacks, AND scrambles, Taylor's 3rd down conversion % is 43.4% as he is 53/122 on such plays.

 

A 43.4% conversion rate on 3rd down is actually good.

 

 

Taylor also has had a few designed runs he's converted on 3rd down, including 1 rushing TD.

 

21 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

How often are they in 3rd and long? 

 

55% of the time he's asked to pass on 3rd down it's for 8+ yards... higher % than any other QB in the NFL.

[transplantbillsfan]

17 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Here's another question ... WHY are they often in 3rd and long?

 

Doesn't an awful lot of that have to do with how bad the offense (including Tyrod) are on 1st and 2nd downs?

 

 

Yeah, it's how bad the offense is on 1st and 2nd downs, obviously.

 

Just think of all those negative rushing plays by McCoy and Tolbert on 1st and 2nd down.

 

 

If you were even remotely objective you'd know that the Lion's share of blame for our constant 8+ yards to go on 3rd down goes to our inconsistent (at best) to woeful rushing attack.

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, Air it out Fitzy said:

 

Setting up a tent on Mount Wrong ? 

 

Offense was ???? vs 49ers and Browns last year, we need to build the team Around Tyrod ???

 

Nevermind the other games where Tyrod Looked like Tyrod.

 

See, statements like this really makes me think you don't actually watch the games.

[transplantbillsfan]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/alex/2017/2017-alex-midseason-report

 

Okay, and this is a few weeks old... it was actually generated 2 days before the Chargers game, so it doesn't include the half from the Chargers game Taylor played, the Chiefs game, or the half+ from the Pats game, but you'll see that Taylor is tied, at that point, for the 3rd most "average need yards for a first down" on 3rd down.

 

So, again, we have work to do on 1st and 2nd down moreso than 3rd down.