Extreme Moneyball - Bills version

[thurst44]

If the article is criticizing the Cardale Jones trade i thin they are dead wrong, Cardale is a disaster at QB, miracle they got anything and Boldin retiring was a god send to us, over the hill to say the least. And yes he is a rookie but Jones has shown a lot at WR and that deserves to be mentioned in the "no wide receivers" sentence.

 

I want to see the team Boldin joins, that wil be good for laughs

Plus, I don't know how many times this needs to be said, but Matthews has 200 more yards than Watkins over the same amt of time. He may not be a superstar and certainly Watkins has more potential, but to call him ballast is lazy journalism trying to shoehorn the facts into their own narrative.

Edited September 5, 2017 by thurst44

[PromoTheRobot]

What is interesting to me is the Shift in Patriots Philosophy in recent years.

 

No longer are they accumulating picks, instead are starting to trade those picks to get NFL quality talent NOW. Where in the past they filled their roster with young players and purged the VETs a year early for high picks. Now they have dealt picks for NFL Players.

 

Couple things that may be driving that shift,

 

1. Brady's Age. Want to field the best team possible for his last couple runs

2. The shift in College, and players coming out more and more that are not ready because of the type of college game

3. Along with two, you have the CBA practice restrictions that take hurt teams from developing those college players fast enough.

 

Either way it is interesting that a team that made a living of grabbing future draft picks has changed their philosophy to use picks for current NFL players.

 

It's genius, I tell you. GENIUS!! Did you see the dump Belichick took this morning? It's genius!

[KDIGGZ]

 

Your lips to God's ears.

 

You hate to see that kind of thing happen, but personally I would love to see that happen.

haha i would be doing a dance and then i'd be like oh i mean uhh what a shame. so sad...

[Big Turk]

What is the point of bringing up the Matthews injury when he will be back by week 1 or at worst, week 2?

 

I'm not saying I disagree with having no WR's...the WR room is looking pretty thin, even with Matthews, but let's not oversell things here..

[iinii]

What is interesting to me is the Shift in Patriots Philosophy in recent years.

 

No longer are they accumulating picks, instead are starting to trade those picks to get NFL quality talent NOW. Where in the past they filled their roster with young players and purged the VETs a year early for high picks. Now they have dealt picks for NFL Players.

 

Couple things that may be driving that shift,

 

1. Brady's Age. Want to field the best team possible for his last couple runs

2. The shift in College, and players coming out more and more that are not ready because of the type of college game

3. Along with two, you have the CBA practice restrictions that take hurt teams from developing those college players fast enough.

 

Either way it is interesting that a team that made a living of grabbing future draft picks has changed their philosophy to use picks for current NFL players.

Well said.

[SoTier]

What is interesting to me is the Shift in Patriots Philosophy in recent years.

 

No longer are they accumulating picks, instead are starting to trade those picks to get NFL quality talent NOW. Where in the past they filled their roster with young players and purged the VETs a year early for high picks. Now they have dealt picks for NFL Players.

 

Couple things that may be driving that shift,

 

1. Brady's Age. Want to field the best team possible for his last couple runs

2. The shift in College, and players coming out more and more that are not ready because of the type of college game

3. Along with two, you have the CBA practice restrictions that take hurt teams from developing those college players fast enough.

 

Either way it is interesting that a team that made a living of grabbing future draft picks has changed their philosophy to use picks for current NFL players.

 

I'm not sure if there's been all that significant a shift in Belichick's philosophy. I think he's the ultimate pragmatist who looks at his team's talent needs without preconceptions of how to fill those needs. The Pats under Belichick have always made judicious use of other team's cast off veterans. They acquired FA RB Antowan Smith (former Bill) who helped them to win their first SB in 2001. They stole Wes Welker from Miami for a second rounder. They've always been on the look-out for talented young vets who could help the team. When they've had veterans of their own who were marketable and young guys coming up to replace them, they've traded away the vets.

 

Then, of course, when there are such obliging teams like the Bills around that shed their best talent like they were ducks drying their feathers, why bother with drafting unknown college talents when you can sign a young, Pro Bowl CB for a few $$ more?

[Mat68]

Not to sound bias I wouldnt put Buffalo in the class of NYJ and CLE. Both cut players soley for cap reasons. Buffalo hasnt gone that route. If so K Williams Incognito and Wood would all be gone. All the moves Buffalo has done have come with 2 factors scheme fit and injury history. Getting something for Watkins who they were not keeping long term makes sense. Matthews and a third seems like a win with gaines taking over the starting cornerspot. Good bad or ugly Buffalo has gone against the media consensus with Watkins a building block and Darby our best corner.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I agree on Cardale and Zay.

 

I actually think Boldin would be at least serviceable, but that doesn't matter now. He is retired, and retired for good whether he likes it or not; he will not play for the Bills and they won't release his rights.

 

I imagine the "right" price would release his rights. Of more concern is the fact that he really looked slow in his last outing.

[SoTier]

Not to sound bias I wouldnt put Buffalo in the class of NYJ and CLE. Both cut players soley for cap reasons. Buffalo hasnt gone that route. If so K Williams Incognito and Wood would all be gone. All the moves Buffalo has done have come with 2 factors scheme fit and injury history. Getting something for Watkins who they were not keeping long term makes sense. Matthews and a third seems like a win with gaines taking over the starting cornerspot. Good bad or ugly Buffalo has gone against the media consensus with Watkins a building block and Darby our best corner.

 

The Bills have used the cap as an excuse to get rid of players for almost 20 years. Early in the 2000s, the Bills had real cap issues and had to cut pricey veterans. Since then, under Donahoe, Brandon/Levy/Jauron trio, Nix, Whaley, and now Beane, they trade/cut/let go pricey veterans with depressing regularity, most notably DBs, RBs, and WRs. Then they use high draft picks to replace them with much cheaper rookies, which is why the Bills are always spinning their wheels and can't ever gather enough talent to have a balanced team that can win double digit games in a single season.

 

Apparently, the Bills FO (higher up the food chain than Beane or other GMs) decides what it's willing to pay for DBs, RBs, and WRs that's not really anywhere near "market rate" for the players of the same caliber, so those players leave. The Bills have trained their fans to believe all the cago they spew that they're too "poor" to afford to keep their Pro Bowl CB or get the best offensive player on the team to re-sign the following year when, in fact, the Bills just don't wish to pay them.

 

It's not a cap issue because frequently those ex-Bills end up signing with playoff teams loaded with pricey QBs and other players. It's primarily an attempt to maximize team profits by stinting on player salaries while managing to keep fans hopeful enough about the team's chances to sell tickets. IMO, the timing of the Watkins trade, after the first preseason game when the deadline to buy season tix had passed, was calculated to cash in on having Watkins on the team while shedding his 2017 salary. Extreme moneyball at its finest.

[dave mcbride]

Thanks, OP, for this terrific piece. Also the mods gotta realize that BP publishes some of the best pieces now.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Interesting quote from a Browns' exec:

 

@RyInCBus

Paul DePodesta spells it out for you here... #Browns

 

 

In other words, they're doing it RIGHT. Tank hard, accumulate picks and cap, then go balls out.

Or, you know, you could spend money on good FAs.

 

Drafting well is crucial, but you can't ONLY rely on the draft.

 

Wrong. The team is built on the draft, and enhanced slightly through FA.

[MAJBobby]

 

I'm not sure if there's been all that significant a shift in Belichick's philosophy. I think he's the ultimate pragmatist who looks at his team's talent needs without preconceptions of how to fill those needs. The Pats under Belichick have always made judicious use of other team's cast off veterans. They acquired FA RB Antowan Smith (former Bill) who helped them to win their first SB in 2001. They stole Wes Welker from Miami for a second rounder. They've always been on the look-out for talented young vets who could help the team. When they've had veterans of their own who were marketable and young guys coming up to replace them, they've traded away the vets.

 

Then, of course, when there are such obliging teams like the Bills around that shed their best talent like they were ducks drying their feathers, why bother with drafting unknown college talents when you can sign a young, Pro Bowl CB for a few $$ more?

I am not talking UFAs. They have shifted to using their picks in trades for current players. Last years draft they had what thier pick was 83rd overall as their first pick. They never had that small amount of picks

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Cardale Jones, lol, no credibility/thread

[SoTier]

I am not talking UFAs. They have shifted to using their picks in trades for current players. Last years draft they had what thier pick was 83rd overall as their first pick. They never had that small amount of picks

 

My point is simply that I don't think Belichick is tied to any philosophy except "winning is everything," and he does what he has to do to keep the team stocked, If he sees a veteran he likes being shopped, he's not shy about trading away a pick to grab him.

[The Frankish Reich]

A particularly stupid take from Bleacher Report. Buried in there amidst all the derision is a hint at what Beane (hah! Get it...Moneyball, Billy Beane, Brandon Beane) and company may be thinking. The BR article pokes fun at the apparent obsession with collecting 2nd round picks. And look what the Bills (ostensibly Whaley, but really, this was McD and probably more than a few late night chats with Beane) did in this draft:

 

- traded down from overall pick # 10 to # 27 (White)

- traded up a few slots to pick # 37 (Zay)

- traded up to pick # 63 (Dion)

 

And then it continued with the Sammy trade bringing another 2nd rounder; unless the Rams improve dramatically, the pick will likely fall in that 35-45 range.

 

Remember, Moneyball was all about exploiting a market inefficiency. Back then, it was mostly about how the baseball market undervalued on-base percentage and players who put together successful college careers. If this isn't just haphazard, I'd have to guess the McD and Beane think the "sweet spot" in the draft is in that 2nd round - the most bang for your buck. They come cheaper than the first half of the Round 1, and teams desperate for that one guy they just gotta have are willing to give you too much, usually including one or more 2nd rounders plus a good player (think Gaines + a likely high 2nd round pick). Whether you agree or disagree with what Beane is doing, my hunch is that this is based on some cold, hard study and strategy rather than just an excuse for purging players who aren't "our guys" as many of the critics charge.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

I think it is about 80% #1 Bradys age. I dont see Bill coaching after Brady. They seem to be going all in for the next year or 2. Get 3 titles in a row and off to the sunset goes both.

I'm not so sure belichicks ego won't need a ring without Brady... not sure he retires when tommy does

[26CornerBlitz]

@TheBillsWire

Buffalo's strange obsession with "tanking" and the disconnect it's created (@ByRichKowalski) #Bills

http://billswire.usatoday.com/2017/09/05/buffalos-strange-obsession-with-tanking-and-the-disconnect-it-has-created/

[Magox]

Interesting quote from a Browns' exec:

 

@RyInCBus

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Paul DePodesta spells it out for you here... #Browns

 

While I like the idea of getting a leg up on the competition via more draft choices, he basically implies that he believes talent evaluation is overrated.

 

With that I disagree

[26CornerBlitz]

While I like the idea of getting a leg up on the competition via more draft choices, he basically implies that he believes talent evaluation is overrated.

 

With that I disagree

 

I think it's just an honest admission that scouting/talent evaluation is an inexact science.

[The Frankish Reich]

 

I think it's just an honest admission that scouting/talent evaluation is an inexact science.

Correct. No one doubts DePo is smart. They just think he is sometimes afflicted with "smartest man in the room" syndrome, unwilling to admit that he could just possibly be wrong. But on this one I'm guessing he's right. There is so much information out there on college players that the draft has become an efficient market. Gone are the days when a team with a really good scouting department could have an edge in the first couple days of the draft. (I think this still may work to some extent with day 3 picks and UDFAs.) You can read all the reliable scouting reports out there and not find any compelling explanation for why Cardale Jones would be garbage and Dak Prescott would be an immediate success. Sometimes you just don't know until they get out there on an NFL field, so having more top athletes out there maximizes the likelihood that you'll find keepers.