Tropical Storm Irma - In Atlanta

[BUFFALOKIE]

They all use the same models, and its a bit too early to model this one after the Straits of Florida.

Still, if you want to see the steering currents, this one works.

 

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-103.58,13.13,302

 

You can rotate the earth to desired location, and double click inside the globe to zoom.

 

Press the "earth" thing at the bottom left to change altitude.

That's coooool!

[Captain_Quint]

Did someone forget to close the gate to PPP?

[ExiledInIllinois]

 

Only three Category 5 hurricanes have hit the contiguous 48 U.S. states, Henson told Bloomberg. The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 that devastated the Florida Keys, Hurricane Camille in 1969 and Hurricane Andrew that cut across Florida in 1992. Andrew was originally classified as a Category 4 storm only to be upgraded years later after further analysis.

 

It is obviously a rare breed, Henson said. We are in rare territory.

We are right on track with that 25-35 year spread between Cat 5s... :-(

[DC Tom]

We are right on track with that 25-35 year spread between Cat 5s... :-(

 

Yeah, but this is the first CATEGORY EIGHT!!!!!111!!!!1 to hit the mainland US EVER!!!!11!!!11111!!!11

 

BTW...last predicted track has it veering more south and west, brushing the north Coast of Cuba and over the Keys...in accordance with the prophesy.

Edited September 6, 2017 by DC Tom

[Sig1Hunter]

 

Yeah, but this is the first CATEGORY EIGHT!!!!!111!!!!1 to hit the mainland US EVER!!!!11!!!11111!!!11

 

BTW...last predicted track has it veering more south and west, brushing the north Coast of Cuba and over the Keys...in accordance with the prophesy.

If your prognostication is correct on the path of the storm, I vow to come to you with any and all weather related questions. Siri sucks.

[/dev/null]

 

Yeah, but this is the first CATEGORY EIGHT!!!!!111!!!!1 to hit the mainland US EVER!!!!11!!!11111!!!11

 

BTW...last predicted track has it veering more south and west, brushing the north Coast of Cuba and over the Keys...in accordance with the prophesy.

 

You should put on a fancy bow tie and go on TV and call yourself DC Tom The Science Curmudgeon

[DC Tom]

If your prognostication is correct on the path of the storm, I vow to come to you with any and all weather related questions. Siri sucks.

 

Want to know the trick? Go here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line

 

The forecast line over the past three or so days consistently evolves towards the south and west, you can see it clearly if you watch the forecast maps in the animated loop. NHC is constrained by their reliance on their spot runs of models to the point that they discount the evolution of the ensemble over time. (Not that I blame them - if I were predicting multi-billion dollar disasters for a living, I'd be over-reliant on the models, too. Ignore my instinct and report the models, and when you're wrong people say "Eh, the models aren't perfect." But ignore the models, and people say "What the !@#$ is wrong with you???") That and common-sense look at a surface map ("weather bounces off blue lines") will get you pretty far.

[Chef Jim]

And you people say we're nuts for living in earthquake country.

[ExiledInIllinois]

And you people say we're nuts for living in earthquake country.

You're nuts.

 

;-)

 

Now... Tornado Ally... Perfectly fine!

 

;-)

 

0h, BTW... Cleveland is the safest place in country! Even know they have rivers that catch fire. :-)

[ExiledInIllinois]

Little bit off topic. Looking @ Sherpa's link now:

 

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=171.29,56.76,753

 

Can anybody explain WTF is happening between Russian & Alaska right now? Is that just a huge ex-tropical low? Is there a special name for that? Or is Mikkos Cassadine building a weather machine for Lil' Kim in the DPNK.

 

It's off the Kamchatka pennisula and between that and the Aleutian archipelago.

 

If this was in warmer water, would it be a typhoon, cyclone, or hurricane?

 

Holy Moly!

 

ScreenShot @ 00:12 on 9/6:

 

 

Back to your regularly scheduled Irma coverage

[sherpa]

Little bit off topic. Looking @ Sherpa's link now:

 

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=171.29,56.76,753

 

Can anybody explain WTF is happening between Russian & Alaska right now? Is that just a huge ex-tropical low? Is there a special name for that? Or is Mikkos Cassadine building a weather machine for Lil' Kim in the DPNK.

 

It's off the Kamchatka pennisula and between that and the Aleutian archipelago.

 

If this was in warmer water, would it be a typhoon, cyclone, or hurricane?

 

Holy Moly!

 

ScreenShot @ 00:12 on 9/6:

 

Screenshot_20170906-001203.jpg

 

Back to your regularly scheduled Irma coverage

 

Its just a garden variety strong low.

That's quite normal in the Bering Sea during the summer-winter transition.

Surface winds are only 22 knots at Adak and Attu station, and the barometric pressure at Adak is 29.79, which is low, but not tremendously low.

That area is the airspace that contains routes from NY/Chicago to Tokyo, and last evening the more northern routes were being used because of it. Coast out points were Nome and north instead of Anchorage to avoid it, but get a bit of the tailwind from it.

 

By the way, you mentioned the Bermuda High, which is one of the semi-permanent weather systems on earth, This one is another, called the Aleutian Low, though it is usually further south.

Icelandic Low and Pacific High are the other two.

 

The naming of a storm depends on where it is. In the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific its a hurricane, In the Northwest Pacific its a typhoon and in the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean its a cyclone.

All the same thing.

Edited September 6, 2017 by sherpa

[/dev/null]

0h, BTW... Cleveland is the safest place in country! Even know they have rivers that catch fire. :-)

Even though not Even know

 

This one belongs in the Pet Peeve thread

[CountDorkula]

Pressure dropped from 930mb to 916mb in a day.

 

Models have it turning right earlier than anticipated.

[/dev/null]

Pressure dropped from 930mb to 916mb in a day.

 

Models have it turning right earlier than anticipated.

Which means it may miss Cuba, which is very mountainous and would slow the storm.

 

Instead it's taking aim at South Florida then maybe back out to sea across for a potential second landfall further up the East Coast

[shrader]

 

Want to know the trick? Go here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line

 

The forecast line over the past three or so days consistently evolves towards the south and west, you can see it clearly if you watch the forecast maps in the animated loop. NHC is constrained by their reliance on their spot runs of models to the point that they discount the evolution of the ensemble over time. (Not that I blame them - if I were predicting multi-billion dollar disasters for a living, I'd be over-reliant on the models, too. Ignore my instinct and report the models, and when you're wrong people say "Eh, the models aren't perfect." But ignore the models, and people say "What the !@#$ is wrong with you???") That and common-sense look at a surface map ("weather bounces off blue lines") will get you pretty far.

 

So if it "bounces off the blue line" across Florida in that map, does it head up into the Atlantic/east coast or does it head to Mexico?

[Augie]

So if it "bounces off the blue line" across Florida in that map, does it head up into the Atlantic/east coast or does it head to Mexico?

The CNN weather guy just said 2 very similar projections have it crossing Florida to slide up the Atlantic coast in a track much like Hugo (landfall there was Charleston, SC then tore up a path through Charlotte).

[sherpa]

 

So if it "bounces off the blue line" across Florida in that map, does it head up into the Atlantic/east coast or does it head to Mexico?

 

"Blue lines" are cold fronts.

Cold fronts move, so it may not be there at all when this storm arrives.

 

I'm sure most folks know this, but there are already gas stations and hardware stores out of fuel and plywood in south Florida.

Lines formed at 3AM in some places.

[shrader]

 

"Blue lines" are cold fronts.

Cold fronts move, so it may not be there at all when this storm arrives.

 

Yes, I realize that things change. If everything was in the right place at the right time though, which way would that cold front send it?

[Pete]

 

Yes, I realize that things change. If everything was in the right place at the right time though, which way would that cold front send it?co

I believe the cold front will push it east. Where ever the cold front slams against Irma, the cold front will stick around and will get additional heavy rain long after Irma leaves

Edited September 6, 2017 by Pete

[sherpa]

 

Yes, I realize that things change. If everything was in the right place at the right time though, which way would that cold front send it?

 

Cold fronts move pretty quickly, are mostly surface things, and it should move on.

The cold front would block it, but not completely.

More likely is that an upper level disturbance will steer it.

 

Same as the comment someone made about Cuba. Cuba is mountainous, but very narrow, and this storm is massive. Cuba wouldn't do anything to it.

To diminish, it needs to have it's energy source stopped, and that means land.