sherpa Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 (edited) Anyone know any really good weather radar/forecast websites? They all use the same models, and its a bit too early to model this one after the Straits of Florida. Still, if you want to see the steering currents, this one works. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-103.58,13.13,302 You can rotate the earth to desired location, and double click inside the globe to zoom. Press the "earth" thing at the bottom left to change altitude. Edited September 5, 2017 by sherpa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpberr Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 FWIW, my uncle and family lives in Port Richey and they are headed to Pennsylvania for an impromptu vacation to see everybody. Rolling out today. Their house was destroyed by Andrew in 1992 and they lost everything (the contents of their house was spread over blocks) so they moved not only north but to the other coast of FL. In his non-expert opinion, Irma looks like Andrew but with a lot more power. It's extremely dangerous living in the post 72-96 hours of a hurricane-wrecked area and you're very exposed and they remember it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Have to agree with the "I" storms. We were in Williamsburg VA in 2003 for Isabel. No major damage, but Not the most fun we've ever had. Didn't think they'd ever get the downed trees hauled off, Now you are up in Seattle... Wait and see how long it takes for the lumber to be cleared if Ranier ever blows its top in your lifetime! Lahars are a mutha-ph**ka! Just kidding! ;-) Hope all stay safe! Just texted my sister down in S.FLA... I am the family planner, hard to believe! ;-) She says, if evacuated from S.FLA, they (husband & dog) are going up the Coast to my niece's. Yep, that's the niece in Carolina that lives in a house on stilts along side the Pamlico River coastal estuary! Gee, maybe not the best location to evac to... But they have the stilts working for them! I simply don't want to scare her too much... Just enough to get her into gear and moving into possible action. Start thinking and planning. She escaped the snow for a reason. That reason, nothing good becomes of it... It usually points to wanting to kick back. They all use the same models, and its a bit too early to model this one after the Straits of Florida. Still, if you want to see the steering currents, this one works. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-103.58,13.13,302 You can rotate the earth to desired location, and double click inside the globe to zoom. Press the "earth" thing at the bottom left to change altitude. Thanx!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 And if you're stupid enough to get your weather forecasts from your mom's Facebook posts...no, Irma is not going to be a category 6 hurricane. There is no such thing. not so fast there poindexter. Irma has wind speeds of 155 knots now, and it is getting stronger. A Category 6 on the Saffir-Simpson scale is 158 knots. This is the most powerful hurricane in Atlantic history. And it is now just hitting warm waters. Look for it to continue to intensify. Miami and the Keys are !@#$ed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sig1Hunter Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Looks like it should be an interesting weekend for us Floridians. ...queue the media overusage of 'hunker down'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Anyone know any really good weather radar/forecast websites? www.google.com, Sue. FWIW, my uncle and family lives in Port Richey and they are headed to Pennsylvania for an impromptu vacation to see everybody. Rolling out today. Their house was destroyed by Andrew in 1992 and they lost everything (the contents of their house was spread over blocks) so they moved not only north but to the other coast of FL. In his non-expert opinion, Irma looks like Andrew but with a lot more power. It's extremely dangerous living in the post 72-96 hours of a hurricane-wrecked area and you're very exposed and they remember it. My wife managed a bank branch in Florida during Andrew. After the storm, she went to inspect the bank, and the bank vault had been torn out of its foundation and moved a couple hundred feet. Andrew was a hurricane-sized tornado...that went through an eyewall replacement and took a very deep breath before hitting south Florida. Irma's got a long way to go before getting that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CountDorkula Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 (edited) I'm getting texts from friends in Sarasota (50 miles south of Tampa) looking for somewhere to head. You don't mess with Cat 4-5. I suggest they leave now...and bring thier tennis racquets. I'll have time to shop for beer and wine while they drive 7.5 hours to Atlanta. (I'm told water is hard to find already.) Have a friend and his wife and 2 dogs in Naples heading out now to come to my place. Family on the east coast are playing by ear, but we told them to leave Wednesday/Thursday and come up. Add - I've seen several models that have the storm tracking into/around Atlanta. Edited September 5, 2017 by CountDorkula Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beast Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 If you're seeking meteorological forecasts on this board, you've got much bigger issues. This made me LOL in a meeting I was attending. Thanks. You'll be fine, It won't approach Florida until late Saturday as it stands now. I just hope the mofo takes a right and heads out to the middle of nowhere. I actually hope this hurricane runs right over the top of you and harms nobody else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Poojer Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 there is no category 6, category 5 is 157MPH+. they are discussing adding a category 6 in the wake of Patricia last year(?) but to date the classification ends with Category 5 not so fast there poindexter. Irma has wind speeds of 155 knots now, and it is getting stronger. A Category 6 on the Saffir-Simpson scale is 158 knots. This is the most powerful hurricane in Atlantic history. And it is now just hitting warm waters. Look for it to continue to intensify. Miami and the Keys are !@#$ed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I am hoping that between the Bermuda high, the dip in the jet stream, the cold front passing through, and the greenland block- that Irma shoots right up the coast to here in CT! there is no category 6, category 5 is 157MPH+. they are discussing adding a category 6 in the wake of Patricia last year(?) but to date the classification ends with Category 5 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905082211443015680?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fnews%2F2017-09-05%2Fhurricane-irma-strenghtens-extremely-dangerous-category-5-eastern-caribbean-lockdown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 not so fast there poindexter. Irma has wind speeds of 155 knots now, and it is getting stronger. A Category 6 on the Saffir-Simpson scale is 158 knots. This is the most powerful hurricane in Atlantic history. And it is now just hitting warm waters. Look for it to continue to intensify. Miami and the Keys are !@#$ed! 1) There is no category 6 on the Safir-Simpson scale, 2) This is not the most powerful hurricane in Atlantic history. It's not even in the top-10. The most powerful in the Atlantic basin was Wilma, at <890 mb (883, I think, almost 50mb less than Irma). 3) It's forecast to weaken slightly, not intensify. 4) It's forecast to miss Miami right now. Given that the track has been slightly but steadily south and west of the forecast, it's likely to miss Miami by a decent margin. 5) For as long as you've been wallowing in idiocy as deep as this, how is it that you not died of stupidity yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 (edited) www.google.com, Sue. My wife managed a bank branch in Florida during Andrew. After the storm, she went to inspect the bank, and the bank vault had been torn out of its foundation and moved a couple hundred feet. Andrew was a hurricane-sized tornado...that went through an eyewall replacement and took a very deep breath before hitting south Florida. Irma's got a long way to go before getting that bad. Yeah... Have you heard anything on what type of shear it could encounter. I didn't get to look at Sherpa's link. Interesting morning on board. But... Time controls everything, especially managing huge populations out of harm's way or managing to protect them in harm's way. "All in time, but the clock is another demon that devours our time in Eden, in our Paradise." You cross that Rubicon with a choice you make. Time, never too early to decide. If you can leave, come up to game early, visit North, etc... Even if Irma doesn't pan out, you made a choice about your safety and helping the management and logistics of the herd, the group... That wasn't as blessed and able to leave. No regrets, enjoy yourself. Like taking a vaccine. Yey, everybody wants to wait... Perfectly play out their individual return. Such is the downside to the gamen. Usually, more get worse. Sorry for going philosophical on these things... If it hurts anybody's mind, just stop reading and turn the music up somebody will pray for you. Edited September 5, 2017 by ExiledInIllinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Cat 5 is 136- 157 knots. There are reports of 160 knot readings already, and this B word is just getting warmed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Cat 5 is 136- 157 knots. There are reports of 160 knot readings already, and this B word is just getting warmed up Cat 5+ Yeah... DC can get nerdy and split hairs. FB I suppose adds to it. Thats why I never ventured down there. I am mad as it is already! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Cat 5 is 136- 157 knots. There are reports of 160 knot readings already, and this B word is just getting warmed up Cat 4 is 130-156. Jesus, how the hell can you !@#$ up something so badly that is so widely known and easily verified? What are you reading, the back of a Cocoa Puffs box? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackFergy Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 National Hurricane Center - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Thanks They all use the same models, and its a bit too early to model this one after the Straits of Florida. Still, if you want to see the steering currents, this one works. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-103.58,13.13,302 You can rotate the earth to desired location, and double click inside the globe to zoom. Press the "earth" thing at the bottom left to change altitude. Thanks...amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 You two, play nice! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Yeah... Have you heard anything on what type of shear it could encounter. I didn't get to look at Sherpa's link. Interesting morning on board. But... Time controls everything, especially managing huge populations out of harm's way or managing to protect them in harm's way. "All in time, but the clock is another demon that devours our time in Eden, in our Paradise." You cross that Rubicon with a choice you make. Time, never too early to decide. If you can leave, come up to game early, visit North, etc... Even if Irma doesn't pan out, you made a choice about your safety and helping the management and logistics of the herd, the group... That wasn't as blessed and able to leave. No regrets, enjoy yourself. Like taking a vaccine. Yey, everybody wants to wait... Perfectly play out their individual return. Such is the downside to the gamen. Usually, more get worse. Sorry for going philosophical on these things... If it hurts anybody's mind, just stop reading and turn the music up somebody will pray for you. Shear's supposed to be light at least until it passes the Leeward Islands. Don't know about after. The cold front moving south over the continent should keep it slightly south and west of forecast, though. Personally...I think it's going to pass just north of Cuba, across the Keys into the Gulf, and hit the Florida panhandle around this time next week. You two, play nice! :-) !@#$ that. I'm going to go to town on his ignorant ass like a Category 7 hurricane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sherpa Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Regarding shear, if you go to the link I provided, and then rotate the earth to your desire, then press the "earth" thing at the bottom left to access the menu. 1. Rotate the earth to your desires. 2. Zoom as you want. 3. Select "earth" thing at the bottom and change altitudes by lowering the hectopaschal (hPa). You can see there is very little shear until you get in the 250 hPa range, which is about 35000', and then not until the central Florida area. Here's a link to convert hPA to feet. http://meteorologytraining.tpub.com/14269/css/14269_75.htm Looks like nothing to weaken it until land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Jack Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 !@#$ that. I'm going to go to town on his ignorant ass like a Category 7 hurricane! You do and you'll have Category 10 Mod Storm on your ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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