After the Tank - what really happens

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I would like to address the persistent theme on this board that the Bills should tank.

As an example of this viewpoint, see: https://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/195620-this-team-is-being-built-like-water/?p=4489558

Let's look for a minute at the fate of teams which draft #1 overall (eg after being the NFL's "biggest losers") and choose a QB, as a franchise QB is generally regarded as the most important factor for a team's long term success. I'm going to look at the decade from 2005-2014 on the theory it's too soon to judge 2015 and 2016.

 

During that decade, a QB was drafted with the first overall pick 60% of the time (6/10). I'm going to look at the W/L record during the 'tank', and 5 years after the 'tank' since I think most fans would feel 5 years is enough time for a #1 draft pick to develop and a good coach/GM to build a team
Let's see what happened
Year Team Player W/L 'tank W/L Next 5 years Playoffs? Result
2005 SF Smith 2-14 4-12, 7-9, 5-11, 7-9, 8-8 N climb to Mediocrity

2007 Oak Russell 2-14 4-12, 5-11,5-11, 8-8, 8-8 N climb to Mediocrity

2009 Det Stafford 0-16 2-14, 6-10,10-6, 4-12,7-9 1x, WC 1 good year then Mediocrity
2010 StL Bradford 1-15 7-9, 2-14, 7-8, 7-9, 6-10 N Mediocrity
2011 Car Newton 2-14 6-10, 7-9, 12-4, 7-8, 15-1 2x ,Div, SB Success
2012 Ind Luck 2-14 11-5, 11-5, 11-5, 8-8, 8-8 3x WC, Div, Conf Success

Clearly, in 4 of 6 cases, drafting a QB #1 overall after a "tank" did NOT lead a team to long term winning success.

Was it just picking the wrong QB? In the case of Smith, like him or don't his teams have gone to playoffs 5 of the last 6 years, so arguably the team around the QB or the development of the QB has something to do with it. Matt Stafford overall has the stats of a good QB. He's durable, he passes for 7.1 ypa and >4000 yds per season, doesn't throw too many picks, took them to playoffs again in his 6th year. Bradford had durability issues, but played well in his 3rd season (a losing one for the team) and has played well his last 2 years, especially last year. The only clear-cut terrible, very bad, no good QB was Russell.

I just throw that out there for the guys who are clamoring for "tank, tank". Reflect a bit, because clearly tanking and drafting #1 Qb has not proven the path to success more often than it has.

 

[RyanC883]

I would like to address the persistent theme on this board that the Bills should tank.

As an example of this viewpoint, see: https://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/195620-this-team-is-being-built-like-water/?p=4489558

 

Let's look for a minute at the fate of teams which draft #1 overall (eg after being the NFL's "biggest losers") and choose a QB, as a franchise QB is generally regarded as the most important factor for a team's long term success. I'm going to look at the decade from 2005-2014 on the theory it's too soon to judge 2015 and 2016.

 

During that decade, a QB was drafted with the first overall pick 60% of the time (6/10). I'm going to look at the W/L record during the 'tank', and 5 years after the 'tank' since I think most fans would feel 5 years is enough time for a #1 draft pick to develop and a good coach/GM to build a team

Let's see what happened

Year Team Player W/L 'tank W/L Next 5 years Playoffs? Result

2005 SF Smith 2-14 4-12, 7-9, 5-11, 7-9, 8-8 N climb to Mediocrity

2007 Oak Russell 2-14 4-12, 5-11,5-11, 8-8, 8-8 N climb to Mediocrity

2009 Det Stafford 0-16 2-14, 6-10,10-6, 4-12,7-9 1x, WC 1 good year then Mediocrity

2010 StL Bradford 1-15 7-9, 2-14, 7-8, 7-9, 6-10 N Mediocrity

2011 Car Newton 2-14 6-10, 7-9, 12-4, 7-8, 15-1 2x ,Div, SB Success

2012 Ind Luck 2-14 11-5, 11-5, 11-5, 8-8, 8-8 3x WC, Div, Conf Success

 

Clearly, in 4 of 6 cases, drafting a QB #1 overall after a "tank" did NOT lead a team to long term winning success.

 

Was it just picking the wrong QB? In the case of Smith, like him or don't his teams have gone to playoffs 5 of the last 6 years, so arguably the team around the QB or the development of the QB has something to do with it. Matt Stafford overall has the stats of a good QB. He's durable, he passes for 7.1 ypa and >4000 yds per season, doesn't throw too many picks, took them to playoffs again in his 6th year. Bradford had durability issues, but played well in his 3rd season (a losing one for the team) and has played well his last 2 years, especially last year. The only clear-cut terrible, very bad, no good QB was Russell.

 

I just throw that out there for the guys who are clamoring for "tank, tank". Reflect a bit, because clearly tanking and drafting #1 Qb has not proven the path to success more often than it has.

 

 

 

 

I agree. You need a talented team around a QB for that QB to have quick success (ex. Big Ben, Eli Manning, Rivers, Dak, Wentz, and Winston).

[4_kidd_4]

Prob hold each other and share a cig.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Prob hold each other and share a cig.

 

Is this supposed to be related to my post on tanking in some way? too clever for me if so

[oldmanfan]

Back on the old board I got yelled at for saying that the T word should be banned and those using it as well. But I will reiterate that belief here. They are not going to "T word" this season, nor is there any reason to do so. Your post is spot on. Plus if you step back and look realistically at what has gone on this offseason, other than the Sammy trade (which I did not agree with), it seems to me there has been a balance of favorable and unfavorable things. The offense is essentially the same up front (and Glenn being healthy might just be the key to the season), other than Sammy the WR corps overall is as good if not better than last year. Shady is still around, and they added a great blocking FB. So really comparing to last year the key questions are Glenn's health, and whether Dennison's offense uses TT more favorably and maintains the strong running game (which at least based on a few carries by Shady last weekend seems like it should work).

 

The defense benefits from getting back to a scheme that fits more of the front 7 guys. Certainly the front 4 will like McD's D better, as will Brown at MLB. Lorax and Humber we'll have to see, but losing Zach B likely wasn't a huge loss because he may not have been as effective in the 4-3. We're worried about DB's, but we have a round one pick at one CB and Gaines who was all-rookie and likes the zone based scheme. Safeties I actually think Hydd and the other guy (I know I'll spell it wrong - Posner??) are playing well, and upgrade over A Will and Graham. The kicking game with Hauschka should be better. So we lost two CB's, have two to come in and take their roles, and a LB that was perhaps not a great 4-3 fit. Time will tell if these changes add up to a net negative or positive.

 

This year will come down to similar things as most years for most teams. Does TT do a good job at QB? Does our strength (running game) hold up? How will the D look? Can the dumb penalties stop? And of course how will injuries affect things. Many of these are unknown now. But if you try and look with a dispassionate eye towards things, no reason to think this team is all of a sudden horrible.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

I would like to address the persistent theme on this board that the Bills should tank.

As an example of this viewpoint, see: https://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/195620-this-team-is-being-built-like-water/?p=4489558

 

Let's look for a minute at the fate of teams which draft #1 overall (eg after being the NFL's "biggest losers") and choose a QB, as a franchise QB is generally regarded as the most important factor for a team's long term success. I'm going to look at the decade from 2005-2014 on the theory it's too soon to judge 2015 and 2016.

 

During that decade, a QB was drafted with the first overall pick 60% of the time (6/10). I'm going to look at the W/L record during the 'tank', and 5 years after the 'tank' since I think most fans would feel 5 years is enough time for a #1 draft pick to develop and a good coach/GM to build a team

Let's see what happened

Year Team Player W/L 'tank W/L Next 5 years Playoffs? Result

2005 SF Smith 2-14 4-12, 7-9, 5-11, 7-9, 8-8 N climb to Mediocrity

2007 Oak Russell 2-14 4-12, 5-11,5-11, 8-8, 8-8 N climb to Mediocrity

2009 Det Stafford 0-16 2-14, 6-10,10-6, 4-12,7-9 1x, WC 1 good year then Mediocrity

2010 StL Bradford 1-15 7-9, 2-14, 7-8, 7-9, 6-10 N Mediocrity

2011 Car Newton 2-14 6-10, 7-9, 12-4, 7-8, 15-1 2x ,Div, SB Success

2012 Ind Luck 2-14 11-5, 11-5, 11-5, 8-8, 8-8 3x WC, Div, Conf Success

 

Clearly, in 4 of 6 cases, drafting a QB #1 overall after a "tank" did NOT lead a team to long term winning success.

 

Was it just picking the wrong QB? In the case of Smith, like him or don't his teams have gone to playoffs 5 of the last 6 years, so arguably the team around the QB or the development of the QB has something to do with it. Matt Stafford overall has the stats of a good QB. He's durable, he passes for 7.1 ypa and >4000 yds per season, doesn't throw too many picks, took them to playoffs again in his 6th year. Bradford had durability issues, but played well in his 3rd season (a losing one for the team) and has played well his last 2 years, especially last year. The only clear-cut terrible, very bad, no good QB was Russell.

 

I just throw that out there for the guys who are clamoring for "tank, tank". Reflect a bit, because clearly tanking and drafting #1 Qb has not proven the path to success more often than it has.

 

 

 

 

....NICE work bud.......too much talent on this team to think about tanking.....would you want to be a player on a "tank job" club?......maybe we could have the inaugural "Tankers of the Year" trophy presented at SB halftime by Goodell with all 53 players inscribed along with a $10 million dollar fine......this is probably TT's "make it or break it" year so give the kid one last shot....bring Peterman along slowly.....besides, what's wrong with two 1sts, two 2nds AND two 3rds in 2018?.....and who even knows what QB's come out, who stays healthy, who gets injured, etc?.....tank is just wasted yap........

[TheElectricCompany]

and who even knows what QB's come out, who stays healthy, who gets injured, etc?.....tank

Yes, this is what gets me about the whole "tanking" argument.

What if the guy you wanted stays in school, or shreds his knee in the bowl game like Jaylon Smith?

There are too many factors at the NCAA level to be able to tank effectively.

[26CornerBlitz]

Nice followup by HBF to the Flip Johnson thread. Well done.

[GoBills808]

So...as long as we don't draft Alex Smith or Jamarcus Russel we have a 50% chance of becoming a very good football team? Sign me up.

[ddaryl]

So I sing you to sleep
After the tankin'
I brush back the hair from your eyes.
And the disgust on your face
Is so real that it makes me want to cry.

And I know that my song
Isn't sayin' anything new.
Oh, but after the tankin'
I'm still in love with you

[billz4life820]

you can argue all you want but the one thing this team has been missing in the 17 year playoff drought is an above average qb...... we have had teams with a talented defense, great running offense, talented wrs, etc.... but we have never had a truly good qb....and guess what the results were the same for those 17 years

[Kemp2Warlick]

good job Hap...

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

Is this supposed to be related to my post on tanking in some way? too clever for me if so

 

just another smart ass reply by said poster.

 

good job on the OP but you're never going to change the loser mentality of the tanksters.

 

 

they'll all be crying the blues when the team doesn't tank so keep a large supply of tissues for them to pass around.

[4_kidd_4]

So I sing you to sleep

After the tankin'

I brush back the hair from your eyes.

And the disgust on your face

Is so real that it makes me want to cry.

And I know that my song

Isn't sayin' anything new.

Oh, but after the tankin'

I'm still in love with you

This guy gets it.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

Yes, this is what gets me about the whole "tanking" argument.

What if the guy you wanted stays in school, or shreds his knee in the bowl game like Jaylon Smith?

There are too many factors at the NCAA level to be able to tank effectively.

 

...."quitters NEVER prosper" is how I put it......the yipsters about the Cheatriots, yup them with 5 SB's and 14 AFCE titles ALL from cheating (COUGH), don't see "tanking" as another form of cheating.....go figure....

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

 

I agree. You need a talented team around a QB for that QB to have quick success (ex. Big Ben, Eli Manning, Rivers, Dak, Wentz, and Winston).

 

Which means hitting on a few picks next year would go a long way to building a successful team. Rather than trading them all.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

 

Which means hitting on a few picks next year would go a long way to building a successful team. Rather than trading them all.

 

..the draft is a never ending crap shoot....no way to measure what is in a kid's head and heart...do you get a hard charger who loves the game and plays accordingly?...do you get a kid that now hits the bankroll with major guaranteed money and Bentleys are more important than football?...injury, unknown or undisclosed health condition (docs have missed some)?.....BUT...with six in the first three rounds of 2018, the future POSITIONALLY is bright.....do all, some or none pan out?......stay tuned...............

[elroy16]

Well researched information there.

 

My favorite pro tank argument I saw on twitter was, "3-13 gets you a franchise QB, 7-9 gets you whitner." The problem with that statement is the only QB that was drafted before Whitner was Vince Young, so yeah.

 

 

Between changing systems, not the best QB, lack of quality depth, and what looks like a brutal schedule, I wouldn't be shocked with 5 wins or so. I don't think they'll be worse than that, but it's possible. Hopefully with their mid-high first round pick and the additional stock they have, they can move up and get a QB if Tyrod and Peterman don't appear to have the ability to run the offense. If they do, they have a bunch of picks to add a lot of talent.

 

 

Anyway, in the NFL, I am 100% anti-tank. I'm against it in any sport really, I hate the idea of not trying to win, but in the Sabres case, it worked out. Even in the NHL it's not a guarantee, look at Reinhart. I like him as a player, but he's not looking like a star who can turn a franchise around.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Thanks for the work on this

 

Don't see any team beating the Jets in the 2017 Tank-a-palooza.

 

Also, definitely agree with the gist of this argument.

 

Look at all the QBs recently who have had degrees of success and were not high 1st round picks: Prescott (4), Siemian (7), Bridgewater (1, but pick 32), Carr (2), and Savage (4). That's back through 2014.

 

While 2013 sucked for QBs overall, look at 2012: Wilson (3), Foles (3), and Cousins (4).

 

2011: Dalton (2), Kaepernick (2), and Taylor (6).

 

Point being, if we're not picking top 3, I'd almost rather we wait til round 2-4 and get "our guy." All depends on who is there though.

Edited August 25, 2017 by JohnBonhamRocks

[BillsFan4]

Did all those teams truly tank a season?

 

What I consider tanking is what Cleveland did, and what the Jets are doing this season. They were clearly not trying to compete before the season even started (IMO anyway).

 

Can you say the same about all the teams you listed? Were they truly not trying to compete, or did they just have a bad year?

I honestly don't know the answer to this without doing some research on it.

 

To me, it seems like there have been plenty of very good, successful teams built without "tanking", and plenty of good QBs found outside the top 2-3 picks.

 

 

 

 

 

I just don't see tanking as necessary in football, like it is in Hockey. In this day and age in the NHL, you almost need a top 3 pick to get that truly elite franchise changing center/player. Guys like McDavid, Eichel, Matthews, Kane, Toews, Doughty don't fall in the draft. They go top 3. If you look at the teams that have won Cups recently, basically every single one of them has had at least 1 top 3 pick.

 

Where as football just seems different to me. Yes, you need a top 3 pick to get those truly elite QBs when there is even 1 in the draft to get. But so many good franchise QBs have been fond outside the top 5 as well. Some of the best QBs in the NFL were found outside the top 5. There is also plenty of game changing talent all through the first 2 (and even 3) rounds of the draft, and there have been quite a few SB winning teams built without a top 3 pick.

 

Just look at the list of teams who have won the Super Bowl recently - only a couple of them had top picked QBs. Just going back 10 years, 3 of those 10 winners had top picked QBs, and 1 of those 3 was an old, decrepit Peyton Manning playing as a shell of himself. The other 7 had QBs that were picked outside of the top 5 (and really, the top 9/10).

 

And actually, if you go back further than 10 years there are a lot more SB winning QBs taken outside the top of the draft - just going back to 2000, 13 of the 17 SB winning QBs were not top 5 draft picks (if I counted correctly...)

 

http://www.topendsports.com/events/super-bowl/winners-list.htm