Why the Playoffs are a Real Possibility

[H2o]

I find myself getting caught up in the doom and gloom at times, I must admit. But the more I look at the statistics, the changes made, the people brought in to replace those who left, the new coaching staff in place, and what we still have I am starting to have more of a glimmer of hope for this year.

 

On offense we still have our whole OL intact, with the addition of a potential upgrade at RT in Dawkins. This is the rushing attack that was #1 in the league last year. We still have Tyrod, Shady, Sammy(who should be 100%), and Clay. Tyrod is not really my guy, but I have said we can win with him. He is also going into this year un a familiar system with Dennison at the helm. For all of the talk about how great Prescott was last year, he only averaged around 40 more yards passing per game than Taylor. You throw in Zay Jones, Holmes, Brown, Streater, and I think we have a better WR group than 2016. People also talk about the loss of TD Mike, but backups have been plug and play for us the last couple of years. Hopefully a healthy J Will takes those reigns. There is no reason to believe this unit should not be better than last year. We need healthy starters. That is the key. A full 16 from Sammy, Tyrod, Shady, and Clay. Hopefully the heavens smile upon us in that regard this year.

 

On defense we are heading back to the 4-3, the perfect fit for our personnel on defense. Letting the 4 guys get after it up front is gonna be huge. Imo, it is not out of the realm of thinking that all 4 of these guys could make the Pro Bowl. People will say Shaq is an unknown, he looked lost last year, it was a bad pick. I will say that I watched him dominate in a 4-3 at Clemson and I think you will see him take a huge step forward this year. People will say we don't have a Kuechley or Thomas Davis on this defense. I will say that we have a healthy Ragland, a great signing in Hodges, a better fit in a 4-3 in Preston Brown, and the ageless wonder in Alexander. Outside of 3 really bad performances last year they were solid against the run even with the Ryan buffoons calling the defense. The main question is how the Secondary performs. Micah Hyde was a huge get for us, but is Poyer gonna be able to hold down that other S spot? Which Darby will we get? The rookie version that was better than Gilmore or the 2nd year version that looked lost at times? Is White the real deal? From all accounts he was outstanding in the offseason workouts. How does the rest of the depth chart fill out? Again hopefully we get some good fortune with injuries, but I expect a top 10 unit to be on the field for us again in 2017.

 

In summary I think we are overall a better team from a coaching standpoint alone by shedding the dead weight of the Ryan's. The system changes that fit our personnel, the familiar offense for Tyrod, and the additions we made will upgrade this team despite how some view the losses of Gilmore and TD Mike. Hopefully it all comes together, but to me this team seems different than those I had hopes for in years past. I may be throwing in the towel by the end of October, but for now I think this may be the year the drought finally ends.

 

One last note to throw in there. If Tyrod throws for another 40 yards a game we have a top 10 offense last year. If not for the meltdowns on defense twice against the Dolphins and once against Pittsburgh we have a top 10 defense. The only team to be top 10 in both last year? The team that won the SB, the New England Patriots. Here's to hope in the offseason.

Edited July 8, 2017 by H2o

[BuffAlone]

I find myself getting caught up in the doom and gloom at times, I must admit. But the more I look at the statistics, the changes made, the people brought in to replace those who left, the new coaching staff in place, and what we still have I am starting to have more of a glimmer of hope for this year.

 

On offense we still have our whole OL intact, with the addition of a potential upgrade at RT in Dawkins. This is the rushing attack that was #1 in the league last year. We still have Tyrod, Shady, Sammy(who should be 100%), and Clay. Tyrod is not really my guy, but I have said we can win with him. He is also going into this year un a familiar system with Dennison at the helm. For all of the talk about how great Prescott was last year, he only averaged around 40 more yards passing per game than Taylor. You throw in Zay Jones, Holmes, Brown, Streater, and I think we have a better WR group than 2016. People also talk about the loss of TD Mike, but backups have been plug and play for us the last couple of years. Hopefully a healthy J Will takes those reigns. There is no reason to believe this unit should not be better than last year. We need healthy starters. That is the key. A full 16 from Sammy, Tyrod, Shady, and Clay. Hopefully the heavens smile upon us in that regard this year.

 

On defense we are heading back to the 4-3, the perfect fit for our personnel on defense. Letting the 4 guys get after it up front is gonna be huge. Imo, it is not out of the realm of thinking that all 4 of these guys could make the Pro Bowl. People will say Shaq is an unknown, he looked lost last year, it was a bad pick. I will say that I watched him dominate in a 4-3 at Clemson and I think you will see him take a huge step forward this year. People will say we don't have a Kuechley or Thomas Davis on this defense. I will say that we have a healthy Ragland, a great signing in Hodges, a better fit in a 4-3 in Preston Brown, and the ageless wonder in Alexander. Outside of 3 really bad performances last year they were solid against the run even with the Ryan buffoons calling the defense. The main question is how the Secondary performs. Micah Hyde was a huge get for us, but is Poyer gonna be able to hold down that other S spot? Which Darby will we get? The rookie version that was better than Gilmore or the 2nd year version that looked lost at times? Is White the real deal? From all accounts he was outstanding in the offseason workouts. How does the rest of the depth chart fill out? Again hopefully we get some good fortune with injuries, but I expect a top 10 unit to be on the field for us again in 2017.

 

In summary I think we are overall a better team from a coaching standpoint alone by shedding the dead weight of the Ryan's. The system changes that fit our personnel, the familiar offense for Tyrod, and the additions we made will upgrade this team despite how some view the losses of Gilmore and TD Mike. Hopefully it all comes together, but to me this team seems different than those I had hopes for in years past. I may be throwing in the towel by the end of October, but for now I think this may be the year the drought finally ends.

Love your optimism, but yoy lost me when you said it wasn't out of the realm of possibility that all 4 DL make the pro bowl. Has that EVER happened? Alot of talent across the league to assume our 4 are the best 4 lol

[fansince88]

Well thought out write up H2o. Thanks

[BuffaloHokie13]

On your last note: if we passed for 40 more yards a game we'd have been the #4 offense in yards, one spot ahead of the Patriots. We were already top 10 in points and DVOA.

[Kirby Jackson]

I think that the playoffs are a possibility but the Bills will need a lot of luck. I have them between 6-10 & 10-6. They probably need 10-6 to get in. They will need to stay healthy to have any shot.

[yall]

Nice 8000th post!

[Dragonborn10]

I think that the playoffs are a possibility but the Bills will need a lot of luck. I have them between 6-10 & 10-6. They probably need 10-6 to get in. They will need to stay healthy to have any shot.

You just described the entire 2017 NFL except for the Jets and Patriots where their fates are nearly certain

That is what makes the NFL great

Almost every city has a hope

Ours came the day Rex was fired

[Kirby Jackson]

You just described the entire 2017 NFL except for the Jets and Patriots where their fates are nearly certain

That is what makes the NFL great

Almost every city has a hope

Ours came the day Rex was fired

That's a good point. There are probably like 2 dozen teams that fall in this range.

[H2o]

Love your optimism, but yoy lost me when you said it wasn't out of the realm of possibility that all 4 DL make the pro bowl. Has that EVER happened? Alot of talent across the league to assume our 4 are the best 4 lol

Didn't say they would all be 1st team All Pro, but they could possibly all make the Pro Bowl. This defense is the one that Kyle, Dareus, Hughes, and Lawson best fit. We could easily be among the league leaders in sacks again. If it is spread around and guys are getting after it don't rule it out. Also, if the team is playing well those guys will get that much more of a boost. I didn't come down from a mountain with this carved in stone or anything, but it could happen.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

*rolls eyes*

 

hope springs eternal this time each year.

[Buffalo Boy]

And there it is, that Unbridled TBD pre- preseason optimism 👍🏻

[NoSaint]

You just described the entire 2017 NFL except for the Jets and Patriots where their fates are nearly certain

That is what makes the NFL great

Almost every city has a hope

Ours came the day Rex was fired

Unfortunately because the good one is the pats, our road in is much harder

[Buffalo Boy]

Unfortunately because the good one is the pats, our road in is much harder

I see your point but the wildcard is a lower bar with 8-8 getting you in during a fluke year.

If you are in a crappy division( Colts or 2014 Panthers) it clearly does help though.....

Here's to Brady aging overnight!!!!

[BuffAlone]

Didn't say they would all be 1st team All Pro, but they could possibly all make the Pro Bowl. This defense is the one that Kyle, Dareus, Hughes, and Lawson best fit. We could easily be among the league leaders in sacks again. If it is spread around and guys are getting after it don't rule it out. Also, if the team is playing well those guys will get that much more of a boost. I didn't come down from a mountain with this carved in stone or anything, but it could happen.

Lol...gotcha. I can see a very good year for the boys up front. I was just kinda being funny...but I Do, however, wonder if thats ever happened. Four DL from the same team, same year, making the pro bowl. If not, I'd like to make it happen👍

[NoSaint]

I see your point but the wildcard is a lower bar with 8-8 getting you in during a fluke year.

If you are in a crappy division( Colts or 2014 Panthers) it clearly does help though.....

Here's to Brady aging overnight!!!!

"I see your point but I agree" is what I essentially just read!

 

But yea, having the pats in the division both eliminates 1 of the 3 slots we can compete for (and the one we most control our own destiny for) and hangs 2 losses on us when competing with 11 other teams for two wild card spots.

[Kirby Jackson]

"I see your point but I agree" is what I essentially just read!

 

But yea, having the pats in the division both eliminates 1 of the 3 slots we can compete for (and the one we most control our own destiny for) and hangs 2 losses on us when competing with 11 other teams for two wild card spots.

I'd bet, without looking, that the AFC East has produced the fewest playoff teams since the Pats reign started. I guess the South is possible but the AFC East is certainly less than the North or West.

[Buffalo Boy]

I'd bet, without looking, that the AFC East has produced the fewest playoff teams since the Pats reign started. I guess the South is possible but the AFC East is certainly less than the North or West.

has to be

"I see your point but I agree" is what I essentially just read!

 

But yea, having the pats in the division both eliminates 1 of the 3 slots we can compete for (and the one we most control our own destiny for) and hangs 2 losses on us when competing with 11 other teams for two wild card spots.

The Pats haven't kept us from winning a Wild card for 17 years....,.

[KDIGGZ]

[John from Riverside]

some things have to fall right for us....but yes sir

[BuffaloHokie13]

I'd bet, without looking, that the AFC East has produced the fewest playoff teams since the Pats reign started. I guess the South is possible but the AFC East is certainly less than the North or West.

Correct (Since '02 with the division realignment). 2007 Saved the AFC South, as they had 3 teams make it that year.

AFCE: 20

AFCN: 26

AFCS: 22

AFCW: 22

NFCE: 25

NFCN: 23

NFCS: 21

NFCW: 21

[jethro_tull]

despite the defense regressing, the secondary all but non-existent and watkins and dareus out or not contributing very much of the year last season- the bills were in contention for the WC quite late in the year.

if the offense can keep from losing anything and the defense takes shape / improves like we believe it can they could be in a better position this season, especially if ragland and lawson step up as well.

Edited July 8, 2017 by jethro_tull

[#34fan]

This O will have to be better than the "good enough" some thought we were last season.... The team will have to be DOMINANT. -Looking at the roster I don't see that at all.

 

A 6-1 start would better grab my attention...Deliver the candy, and save the sweet-talk for later.

[26CornerBlitz]

@TheBillsWire

#Bills fans have a lot to be excited about in the upcoming season: http://billswire.usatoday.com/2017/07/08/an-optimists-guide-to-the-bills-in-2017/

[Buff808]

Why not, just eliminate the penalties will be a huge improvement. Health is another. Remember last year the raiders were on a roll then David Car got hurt. That can happen to any team at any time. The Bills have been inundated with injuries over the past few years, maybe it's our turn to have the luck, and that is what it is luck, to stay healthy this year. The other main factor I like is the discipline and preparation the team will have from the new coaching staff, it will be like night and day! Let's do it.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

And there it is, that Unbridled TBD pre- preseason optimism

 

 

something you haven't nor likely will ever have, I'm sure of it.

 

 

but you still hang around...

[Buffalo Boy]

 

 

something you haven't nor likely will ever have, I'm sure of it.

 

 

but you still hang around...

[Buffalo Boy]

I'm a fan too Brother, just a little too much "Best case scenario" in th OP's post.

Doesn't mean I wouldn't be an insufferable pain in the arse to all the Dallas, Pittsburgh, and Panthers fans I work with if the scenario turned out😍😍😍

 

It's that time of year..... we are ALL chomping at the bit for it to start.

Last year, I couldn't because of Ryan. There was NO hope!!! This year, I see a glimmer. It might be a mirage but it's still shiny until it's not.

Edited July 8, 2017 by Buffalo Boy

[Buff808]

Why not. For one reason, if we can stay healthy for the whole season that would be a miracle!, second they Ryan's are gone, third. Whaley is gone. So far so good! Great new head coach, fresh start, new GM, New scouting staff and asst coaches. Very good. New attitude brought to organization. About time. Finally a real fundamental, disciplined, mentoring, team oriented, business like approach to team operations. The team has bought in, understands what has been missing, relishes the chance to compete and contend and get the respect they deserve. The Bills now are building a foundation for a smart football organization, whose goal is to improve every chance they have to achieve their goal a Super Bowl.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

I'm a fan too Brother, just a little too much "Best case scenario" in th OP's post.

Doesn't mean I wouldn't be an insufferable pain in the arse to all the Dallas, Pittsburgh, and Panthers fans I work with if the scenario turned out😍😍😍

 

It's that time of year..... we are ALL chomping at the bit for it to start.

Last year, I couldn't because of Ryan. There was NO hope!!! This year, I see a glimmer. It might be a mirage but it's still shiny until it's not.

 

there is always hope. I agree, with ryans circus there wasn't any for me either. it seems there is some change in the air. I am optimistic about the future and I am ready for the season to start too!

 

 

GO BILLS!!!

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

..why shouldn't the playoffs be a realistic goal?..mediocrity breeds contempt....it hasn't been since the Polian era that we have built a formidable organization from the top down IMO........Pegula has spared NO expense in hiring Beane and letting him assemble a staff consisting of many former VP's and Personnel Directors...and TP landed his guy as HC, green yes, but from pretty good pedigree starting with legendary DC, the late Jim Johnson followed by a stint with Rivera.....all on paper?...of course, but the paper is lookin' good so far...McD can return this defense to pre-Wrecks dismantling.....have confidence in Dennison devising an offense conducive to TT's strengths as well as steering away from his weaknesses.....Leslie & McD will get the defense right...sure there is plenty of player uncertainty with newbees and those returning from injuries (same for the other 31) ...now if all translates to between the stripes, 2017 could shape up to be a very interesting year IMO.......stay tuned.......

Edited July 8, 2017 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[NoSaint]

has to be

 

The Pats haven't kept us from winning a Wild card for 17 years....,.

I'm sorry but hanging two losses on us annually is a part. When you often have about a half dozen teams within about two games in December- if we could have split that series annually instead of losing out we would've seen us get in at some point I'd bet.

 

That's not to say the bills have no share of the blame in not winning enough games but when you start in an 0-2 hole almost every year, even if you are in that mess of wild card teams you will need extra breaks to get in.

[Buffalo Boy]

I'm sorry but hanging two losses on us annually is a part. When you often have about a half dozen teams within about two games in December- if we could have split that series annually instead of losing out we would've seen us get in at some point I'd bet.

 

That's not to say the bills have no share of the blame in not winning enough games but when you start in an 0-2 hole almost every year, even if you are in that mess of wild card teams you will need extra breaks to get in.

Who's job is it to win?

It's the Bill's job!!!!

Remember when EJ almost beat them?

The last time I legitimately thought we had a chance to beat them was.....?

It's an attitude that I hope changes under McD.

So, I agree, it's a beyatch having them in our division but if we are EVER going to win a Super Bowl we need to win against any team.

And now you have me dreaming......Just think about us getting a bonifde win over the Pats this year.

Sweet Baby Jesus, that would make it a successful season right there💕

[NoSaint]

Who's job is it to win?

It's the Bill's job!!!!

Remember when EJ almost beat them?

The last time I legitimately thought we had a chance to beat them was.....?

It's an attitude that I hope changes under McD.

So, I agree, it's a beyatch having them in our division but if we are EVER going to win a Super Bowl we need to win against any team.

And now you have me dreaming......Just think about us getting a bonifde win over the Pats this year.

Sweet Baby Jesus, that would make it a successful season right there💕

Yea, I don't know that most of those interchangeable wild card teams are beating the pats most years either... but if we are ever going to get there obviously we have to.

 

Kind of two discussions there though - how to win the wildcard and how to win the super bowl obviously has overlap but if we are talking about winning it all, winning the division is a better starter than how to be competing for a wild card slot

[Buffalo Boy]

Yea, I don't know that most of those interchangeable wild card teams are beating the pats most years either... but if we are ever going to get there obviously we have to.

 

Kind of two discussions there though - how to win the wildcard and how to win the super bowl obviously has overlap but if we are talking about winning it all, winning the division is a better starter than how to be competing for a wild card slot

Absolutely!!!! Let's hope we finally have a Manager/Coach duo to get us there

[wilcoam]

Gotta love the optimism and I don't disagree that there strong propabiities that our passing game improves in 2017

That TT takes a step forward with new coaching

And based on our running game we end up with a top 8-10 offense

A healthy Sammy will make a huge impact, Dawkins/New FB's might make an impact

We will if see if losing Gilly/Woods, new blocking scheme, hurts

 

However I cannot share the optimism about the probabilities our D is going to improve greatly

Just because Ryan has been banished

Let alone pronoucniations of being anywhere near top 10

Isn't this a message board boast every off season?

 

The reality is too many talented D bodies left or were released

The expectation is just about everyone has to exceed how they performed in 2016 and at the same time stay healthy

So too much uncertainty in our back 7 to share the glee

But sure if Ragland become a game changing MLB

If Hodges is the run stopper he was last year

If this very inexperienced secondary all gels due to coaching and scheme

Hyde suddenly becomes a starter he hasn't been to date

Poyer doesn't suck, Darby returns to year 1 form, White emerges, Seymour becomes a great nickel

Anything is possible, including the playoffs, but it's asking an awful awful lot to happen all at the same time

No doubt we will better than 30th vs the run with Ragland/Hodges, safety changes, scheme change

I can also see our front 4 improving on our 2016 17th QB pressure ranking to maybe top 10

But at the same time I'm just not convinced our 21st ranked 2016 pass D will improve

But rather it might unfort decline, PFF just rated it as one the worst in the NFL

Sorry...

 

jc

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

....the NFL is wildly unpredictable....ever think Buffalo could lose 4 consecutive Super Bowls?.......ever think they would be OH FER 17?......Moo's 2004 club couldn't beat the 3rd string Steelers and missed the playoffs at 9-7...forecasts for 2005 were pretty rosy and the wheels fell off at 5-11.....2008 Steelers won the SB and missed the playoffs in 2009.....Brady goes down in 2008 as a death knell yet Cassel leads Pats to 11-5 and they MISSED the playoffs....just a few examples of "you never know".......so we'll "Play It Again Sam".....stay tuned........

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

On your last note: if we passed for 40 more yards a game we'd have been the #4 offense in yards, one spot ahead of the Patriots. We were already top 10 in points and DVOA.

DVOA

 

How does that relate to the top 8 playoff teams?

 

Does it equate to Winning?

[John from Riverside]

Gotta love the optimism and I don't disagree that there strong propabiities that our passing game improves in 2017

That TT takes a step forward with new coaching

And based on our running game we end up with a top 8-10 offense

A healthy Sammy will make a huge impact, Dawkins/New FB's might make an impact

We will if see if losing Gilly/Woods, new blocking scheme, hurts

 

However I cannot share the optimism about the probabilities our D is going to improve greatly

Just because Ryan has been banished

Let alone pronoucniations of being anywhere near top 10

Isn't this a message board boast every off season?

 

The reality is too many talented D bodies left or were released

The expectation is just about everyone has to exceed how they performed in 2016 and at the same time stay healthy

So too much uncertainty in our back 7 to share the glee

But sure if Ragland become a game changing MLB

If Hodges is the run stopper he was last year

If this very inexperienced secondary all gels due to coaching and scheme

Hyde suddenly becomes a starter he hasn't been to date

Poyer doesn't suck, Darby returns to year 1 form, White emerges, Seymour becomes a great nickel

Anything is possible, including the playoffs, but it's asking an awful awful lot to happen all at the same time

No doubt we will better than 30th vs the run with Ragland/Hodges, safety changes, scheme change

I can also see our front 4 improving on our 2016 17th QB pressure ranking to maybe top 10

But at the same time I'm just not convinced our 21st ranked 2016 pass D will improve

But rather it might unfort decline, PFF just rated it as one the worst in the NFL

Sorry...

 

jc

I just look at the reported reasons on why the D struggled......and hope that those can be fixed

 

It wasnt a talent issue....we have talented players

[BuffaloHokie13]

DVOA

 

How does that relate to the top 8 playoff teams?

 

Does it equate to Winning?

One side of the ball never tells the full story. However;

4 of the top 4 DVOA Offenses made the playoffs (ATL 1, NE* 2, DAL 3, GB 4) and the top 2 met in the Super Bowl.

6 of the top 8 (OAK 7, PIT 8)

and 9 of the top 15 (KC 13, MIA 14, DET 15)

 

The 3 playoff teams not in the top 15 DVOA Offense were HOU, NYG, and SEA, who were 7, 2, and 5 in DVOA Defense.

Edited July 8, 2017 by BuffaloHokie13

[Kirby Jackson]

DVOA

 

How does that relate to the top 8 playoff teams?

 

Does it equate to Winning?

The top 2 DVOA offenses last year played in the Super Bowl. 4 of the top 5 were playoff teams. It probably does the best job of "telling the story" as any set of stats. Obviously teams like New Orleans are always going to rank highly on the offensive side but because of their defensive struggles aren't a playoff team.