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New data shows Tyrod/the offense was better than you thought


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Just read through this thread, and clearly Thurman and Rochesterfan had the best and most accurate posts.

 

This thread kind of piggybacks off of the last Tyrod thread and Transplants post near the end about Tyrod and how he fares under pressure, and at that time I argued how that was not surprising because of his mobility and ability to make things happen. It was met with opposition from a certain pro Tyrod poster who challenged this assertion with inadequate information. I'm glad to see this brought back up so that we can get more answers on it.

 

It all boils down to this for me...Tyrod seems to do his best when he's not operating within the system. He is not very good or effective inside the system. He can manage the game and limit turnovers behind a strong ground game in a simplistic pass offense, but when relied upon for anything more, he struggles. When he is not thinking and just looking to make something happen, he's much more successful. This means he's a gamer that has a knack for making plays. The drawback is that he's not that much of a QB in terms of understanding and executing an offensive gameplan. It's a true quandary IMO because you can imagine what type of player he could become if the light came on in terms of understanding and executing within a more complex passing scheme...the problem is that it may never happen, and how long do you give the keys to the car to a guy who hasn't shown to master the most important aspects of being a QB?

 

That's where I'm at on this whole thing.

I think that this is a really fair and strong point. That's part of the reason (or the whole reason) he's so polarizing. There is good and there is bad.
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Can we just wait for the 2017 season and let that speak for itself?

That would be too easy.

That's a very dumb statement from Dennison unless it's taken out of context.

 

Why wouldn't you be interested an a run offense that dominated the league?

 

You'd have to ask him Scott or google further articles on Dennison.

 

the first blurb was from BR (that I don't think TBD likes posted links to), the other Rochester D&C.

Was RGIII's first Skins team run oriented?

Edited by ShadyBillsFan
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That would be too easy.

 

You'd have to ask him Scott or google further articles on Dennison.

 

the first blurb was from BR (that I don't think TBD likes posted links to), the other Rochester D&C.

Was RGIII's first Skins team run oriented?

Believe so. Alfred Morris and RGIII had big years. Morris had 1600+ yards

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Yes this is a Tyrod thread. I would love if all the name calling and petty arguments could stay out of this one.

 

I thought I was done analyzing the Bills offense in 2016, but these three articles that were published over the past couple days changed my mind:

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2017/6/19/15829060/buffalo-bills-tyrod-taylor-lesean-mccoy-highest-first-down-conversion-rate-after-sack-in-2016

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/quarterbacks-and-pressure-2016

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-hc-mcdermott-impressed-with-tyrod-taylors-leadership/

 

Taken together, these articles give us a lot of new information about how well Tyrod and the Bills offense fared when under pressure, or after taking a sack.

 

The conventional wisdom is that sacks are drive-killers. The first link is a study looking into how often a team was able to get a 1st down after taking a sack.

 

The average team was able to obtain a 1st down after a sack just 16.01% of the time. But the Bills converted for a 1st down 28.26% of the time after a sack. This was the highest percentage in the league (for comparison's sake, Miami was the worst in the league with a 3.33% 1st down rate).

 

We took 46 sacks total of which we converted 13. So in actuality we took 33 drive-killing sacks in 2016. This number needs to go down in 2017 but at least as an offense we were better able to recover after a sack than any other offense in the league.

 

The next two links are far more interesting to me. Football Outsiders published a study showing how often QBs were under defensive pressure on a passing play. They also calculated what the total offense's DVOA looked like when the QB was under pressure, whether the QB scrambled or threw the ball. This is really important because previously we only had good DVOA data on Tyrod's passing. Now we get a sense of how his passing and mobility can affect the entire offense's production.

 

The data:

-Tyrod was under pressure on 35.3% of his pass plays. Only Jared Goff was pressured more, out of 34 qualifying QBs. This obviously needs to get better, whoever you want to blame.

-Our offense's DVOA when Tyrod wasn't under pressure was 16th in the league - exactly average.

-Our offense's DVOA when Tyrod was under pressure was 2nd in the league. Only the Packers/Aaron Rodgers were better.

 

Finally, the last link tells us that Tyrod also had the 7th best passer rating (80.1) when under pressure. And he threw 10 TDs when under pressure which was 3rd best in the league (Luck and Rodgers were ahead of him).

 

So there's a lot of really great data here. IMO the data shows Tyrod was better than people give him credit for. He was under pressure way too often. I know he has a tendency to hold the ball too long but I don't believe that tendency is enough to explain our extremely low 33/34 ranking. Hopefully Dawkins helps solve this problem in 2017.

 

Most of all, the data shows that when you factor in Tyrod's passing and scrambling, our offense performed anywhere from average (16th) to outstanding (2nd) on called passing plays. If one of your central criticisms of Tyrod is that his scrambling isn't as important as being a good passer, this data puts a pretty big dent in that criticism IMO. Especially when you consider how often Tyrod was under pressure and therefore how often we needed this special talent of his.

 

Interpret and argue away!

I'm not a Tyrod fan (long-term anyway) but I observed the same thing last season after the change at OC the offense played pretty much as designed. Ryan & co. wanted an offense similar to 49er teams under Roman and they played pretty much at that level. The obvious problem was the defense. He's not a bad place-holder at all and the Bills could do a lot worse. In addition he seems like a really nice guy and someone who is easy to cheer for. I just don't believe he is the long term answer and I hope Bills keep looking for a real superstar QB.

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Well thought out and well reasoned- I think I agree for the most part.

 

You read it the same way I did - nothing was unexpected because these articles play into what was already his known strength.

 

It also made me wonder about the rest of his game as he was so much better under pressure and he was under pressure % wise more than any QBs - so his overall QBing the rest of the time was even worse than the average numbers project.

 

We will see how he does in a new offense with a new staff, but he has to get better in the normal aspects of the game and maybe some of that is designed rolls with out a lot of thought - just get rid of the ball. Time and space is his enemy - he needs to be instinctive and just make plays and that is part of the reason his timing was off, he struggled with throws to the middle of the field, and throwing timing routes to moving receivers. I have stated I do not think a lot of that was coaching - I think a lot of that was TT overthinking.

I'm sure overthinking has something to do with it, but do you think that part of it is that he struggles to see open receivers over the LOS because he's relatively short? I'm interested in seeing if Dennison does any rolling pockets this year to open some passing lanes for TT.

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Not really buying this much, Happy. Mostly I don't think these tell us anything we didn't already know. I'll try to be more specific.

Thanks for the response Thurman.

 

I have to admit I don't really think the sack/conversion rate study is all that interesting as far as it relates to the Bills. I agree that there's too many variables. The study author does break down conversion rates by what down the sack happened on:

 

1st down: 31.02%

2nd down: 19.35%

3rd down: 3.46%

 

And he breaks down by yards lost:

 

0-5 yard sack: 23.27%

6+ yard sack: 12.10%

 

But these are NFL averages and he doesn't list the Bills numbers so there's not much to be gleaned here. I still included the study for data's sake. And it does show we took less drive-killing sacks than the tots would make it seem. Either way the number needs to go down.

 

However, I think you're underselling the Football Outsiders data. What the data shows is that on called passing plays, the Bills offense performed exactly average. It doesn't matter if Tyrod passed or scrambled, it just doesn't. One way or another we were average. I do want a better than average passing offense, no question, but this is contrary to the common opinion that the Bills passing offense was bottom 5, or even worst in the league. It was the worst total passing yards in the league but efficiency-wise we were right in the middle.

 

I think people are slightly misunderstanding the second part of that data. Under no circumstances was our offense "good" when Tyrod was under pressure, it was still a negative DVOA. Tyrod isn't a great QB under pressure, he's just great relative to how other QBS perform under pressure. This is important because he minimizes the damage of the far below average pass protection we had, and also it means our offense can only get better if he is under pressure less.

 

Okay I need some math help with my next point because I am bad at math so if someone here knows how to figure this out I would appreciate some help. I'm trying to figure out what our offense's total DVOA would like if Tyrod was just average under pressure. And ask what it would like with Tyrod at QB but with an average "under pressure" percentage. Here's all the data I just don't know how to turn it into what I need:

 

-Tyrod was under pressure 35.3% of the time

-The average QB was under pressure 26.3% of the time

-Our DVOA under pressure was -21.3%

-Our DVOA without pressure was 46.4%

-Average team's DVOA under pressure was -55.5%

-Average team's DVOA without pressure was 46.4% (because we were the average)

 

I'm pretty sure using that data we can figure out what an average QB, or what average pass protection, would do to our total DVOA on called passing plays, I just don't know how.

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Pretty good. Just not good enough to beat any .500 teams.

 

It's still a no from me.

Agreed. He had opportunities to make plays/extend drives to win games or put games away and he did not get it done. To this point he is similar to Fitz in that he is entertaining at times, he makes some great plays but at the end of the day he is not able to win games when the team needs it. I see him as middle of the road QB. I don't believe he can lead this team to a championship. I'd be thrilled if he proved me wrong.
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Yes this is a Tyrod thread. I would love if all the name calling and petty arguments could stay out of this one.

 

I thought I was done analyzing the Bills offense in 2016, but these three articles that were published over the past couple days changed my mind:

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2017/6/19/15829060/buffalo-bills-tyrod-taylor-lesean-mccoy-highest-first-down-conversion-rate-after-sack-in-2016

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/quarterbacks-and-pressure-2016

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-hc-mcdermott-impressed-with-tyrod-taylors-leadership/

 

Taken together, these articles give us a lot of new information about how well Tyrod and the Bills offense fared when under pressure, or after taking a sack.

 

The conventional wisdom is that sacks are drive-killers. The first link is a study looking into how often a team was able to get a 1st down after taking a sack.

 

The average team was able to obtain a 1st down after a sack just 16.01% of the time. But the Bills converted for a 1st down 28.26% of the time after a sack. This was the highest percentage in the league (for comparison's sake, Miami was the worst in the league with a 3.33% 1st down rate).

 

We took 46 sacks total of which we converted 13. So in actuality we took 33 drive-killing sacks in 2016. This number needs to go down in 2017 but at least as an offense we were better able to recover after a sack than any other offense in the league.

 

The next two links are far more interesting to me. Football Outsiders published a study showing how often QBs were under defensive pressure on a passing play. They also calculated what the total offense's DVOA looked like when the QB was under pressure, whether the QB scrambled or threw the ball. This is really important because previously we only had good DVOA data on Tyrod's passing. Now we get a sense of how his passing and mobility can affect the entire offense's production.

 

The data:

-Tyrod was under pressure on 35.3% of his pass plays. Only Jared Goff was pressured more, out of 34 qualifying QBs. This obviously needs to get better, whoever you want to blame.

-Our offense's DVOA when Tyrod wasn't under pressure was 16th in the league - exactly average.

-Our offense's DVOA when Tyrod was under pressure was 2nd in the league. Only the Packers/Aaron Rodgers were better.

 

Finally, the last link tells us that Tyrod also had the 7th best passer rating (80.1) when under pressure. And he threw 10 TDs when under pressure which was 3rd best in the league (Luck and Rodgers were ahead of him).

 

So there's a lot of really great data here. IMO the data shows Tyrod was better than people give him credit for. He was under pressure way too often. I know he has a tendency to hold the ball too long but I don't believe that tendency is enough to explain our extremely low 33/34 ranking. Hopefully Dawkins helps solve this problem in 2017.

 

Most of all, the data shows that when you factor in Tyrod's passing and scrambling, our offense performed anywhere from average (16th) to outstanding (2nd) on called passing plays. If one of your central criticisms of Tyrod is that his scrambling isn't as important as being a good passer, this data puts a pretty big dent in that criticism IMO. Especially when you consider how often Tyrod was under pressure and therefore how often we needed this special talent of his.

 

Interpret and argue away!

While I understand and appreciate the data, the only statistic that matters are wins and losses. I don't care how good or bad you are, if your not getting the wins.......for better or worse every other stat does not matter.

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REALITY says TT is NOT a Franchise QB and the Bills will be getting one in the next draft.

Right on,

Truth is in my opinion many are in hopes of a top QB drafted next season while some are still lost in the same delusional feelings that were had during the Fitz era. I can only hope our new HC doesn't try to force feed the fans Tyrod like Chan did with Fitz.

Edited by xRUSHx
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While I understand and appreciate the data, the only statistic that matters are wins and losses. I don't care how good or bad you are, if your not getting the wins.......for better or worse every other stat does not matter.

If literally the only part of football you care to discuss is wins and losses, why would you come to this thread? Why would you even come to this forum at all between February and September? These kinds of posts make no sense to me.

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If literally the only part of football you care to discuss is wins and losses, why would you come to this thread? Why would you even come to this forum at all between February and September? These kinds of posts make no sense to me.

You don't win championships by having the most passing yards or rushing yards, or crushing 1/2 of your opponents by playing Brady, I mean your QB late in the 4th with a 20 point lead.

 

You win it by having the most W's.

Edited by ShadyBillsFan
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I thought HappyDays made a good post with interesting links.

 

I get that some disagree and have understandable reasons for doing so. What I don't get is why we need to attack and ridicule each other. Honestly, it's kind of childish and certainly unkind.

 

As for the O... TT and all our players have particular strengths and weaknesses. It's going to be interesting to see how Dennison will put it all together.

 

Despite the deficiencies last year, ALynn still got us into the top ten in scoring. I hope Rico does the same.

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My humble take:

The reason QB's are so important is 2 minute offense. If your down by a TD or less and you have the ball with less than 2 minutes you need a passing QB to win you the game. That is why our point differential is low but we did not win enough games. TT is not a good enough passer. That is also why a run first team like the Bills is a dodo bird.

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with all due respect....what does any of that have to do with this season in a new scheme with new coaches?

 

The OP is about how Tyrod was better than ppl thought... How does that data relate at all to the new regime?

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The OP is about how Tyrod was better than ppl thought... How does that data relate at all to the new regime?

The answer is we don't know. We know a few things about the new regime and Tyrod. They wanted him here for at least this year and he has worked with Dennison before. Beyond that it's a total wait and see I think for McDermott/Beane and company.
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Dude, I wasn't implying that or anything like that. You didn't just miss the point, you selected a new point out of thin air and assumed it was mine.

 

Of course it considers passing, sacks AND scrambles. That's what I said. Take a look:

 

 

 

 

Get it?

 

Since passing DVOA already includes sacks ... when I was talking about their adjustments and said "if you include scrambles past the LOS" I was of course pointing out that the second stat includes passes, sacks and scrambles.

 

So -for the second time - of course adding Tyrod's scrambles to his passing DVOA is going to make him look better than it makes most NFL QBs look. We all know that's the strong part of his game.

 

Whyncha try reading carefully next time before you get your panties all sweaty and in a bunch.

 

*sigh*

 

I'm not missing anything, Thurm. I read it all. Did you read the article?

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/quarterbacks-and-pressure-2016

Today, we are looking at our charting results for quarterbacks and pressure for the 2016 regular season. These are always some of the most cited and noteworthy numbers in Football Outsiders Almanac (the 2017 edition will be available in July!). This data primarily comes from Sports Information Solutions charting, although we also have access to ESPN Stats & Information data and we use that to check against the SIS data. Pressure will always have a subjective element to it, but we feel that comparing the two sources has led to a more accurate measurement.

 

They didn't just "add in scrambles." They factored in only passing plays where the QBs faced pressure. That's different.

 

 

You said, "I'm worried about Tyrod's pass game, not his run game," when, in fact, these numbers factor in both. And considering how how Taylor's passer rating is under pressure, if it doesn't change anything for you, you should at least understand what it says before deciding that it changes nothing for you.

Edited by transplantbillsfan
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i don't think there are a lot of people complaining about the offense. the DEFENSE is what let us down last year. the only complaint about the offense was that once down, there was no way we are coming back. Tyrod can't air it out and get us back into games if we are down by a lot and he can't lead a game winning 2 min drive. the only way this will work is with a dominating defense that keeps the score low and for Tyrod and company to effectively and consistently move the ball and put up points

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Tyrod has to prove he can put the team on his back and string together some come from behind and 2nd half / 4th quarter victories

 

Bad defense or not.... that's what has to happen

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The offense never got enough credit last season. The vast majority of our issues were on defense. Offense played well enough to win at least 10 games. Rex and Rob single handily cost us a legit shot to end the drought.

Yes they did. Offense was better, Defense got worse under those two.

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God - I try to stay out, but it just keeps coming back and I am sure like all of the other TT threads - we will have the exact same groups on both sides calling each other names and complaining about being insulted - such fun, but I digress.

 

Thanks Happy - I like the thought, but I am not sure what it really tells us. First - the best part of TT's game is his mobility - so none of the stats "surprise" me. What it tells me is that under pressure - where he can't think and plays on instinct - he plays better. When he has time and an open field to read and absorb - he wants to make the perfect play and therefore is much less effective.

 

What to me is truly scary is his TDs - well over half of his TD throws by this were under pressure - yet he was under pressure about 1/3 of the time. He needs to get much, much better in the flow of a game.

 

Overall the combination of articles tell me 2 things - 1 Tyrod's legs are a huge part of his game and really helps with his play under pressure to escape and both run and throw. 2 - if I am a team playing TT - I look to what Baltimore did and I want to force him to be a QB and force him to read the field and make decisions- I think that is where TT struggles and that is why teams talk about making him be a QB.

 

He is an improviser and his legs are a major part of his game, but the 2/3 of a time that teams did not pressure him and force him to make a play - his play tailed off. We will see what happens next - I will let you get back to insulting each other now.

 

Soooo... this article includes scrambles, yes. It includes them for all QBs.

 

You and Thurm have the same conclusions, it seems... that this reveals nothing new because we always knew he was a great runner.

 

Why are you latching onto 25% of the "pressured" plays he's referring to? I say 25% because Taylor scrambled 47 times. But there were 188 "pass plays with pressure" that footballoutsiders article refers to.

 

 

This isn't all about his legs. He stood in the pocket and delivered plenty of passes with pressure around him or coming straight at him. Just go watch his TD highlights and you can pretty easily figure out which ones are the pressure plays and which ones are the non pressure plays. By my count (and please, check for yourself and let me know if I counted wrong and which plays you included), of the 10 relatively obvious "pressure plays" on his passing TDs (since we know from those other sources he has 10 passing TDs under pressure) Taylor only left the pocket twice. Those were the TD pass to Salas in the Jets game and the TD pass to Hunter in the back of the end zone in the Rams game. That means he stood in the pocket and delivered 80% of his TD passes that were under pressure.

 

And saying at those points he just always is "acting on instinct" ignores plays like the TD pass to Goodwin in the 1st Dolphins game with the defender running free straight at him and plowing him to the ground. Or the Steelers game with the pass to Clay where he pump fakes to try to make just enough room to get the ball to Clay before getting tackled.

 

 

You're right, it's just another thread with people lumped in their camps, which is simply a shame because it makes civil and rational discussion absolutely impossible.

 

It'd be helpful if everyone at least understood what the articles actually said before scurrying to try to fit that square study into their round narrative :blink:

Edited by transplantbillsfan
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Finished the AFC tonight, will work on NFC tomorrow.

Over the past 2 years the Bills are 9-9 in games where we score 24+. The only AFC Teams with equal or worse win rates scoring 24+ are:

Chargers (7-7)

Jaguars (4-4)

Browns (3-6)

 

In that same time span the Bills also average more points per game in losses (21.9) than any other AFC team (2nd=19.6; 16th=14.2)

and in losses, the Bills average 30.5 points allowed per game, good for 2nd most in the AFC (1st=30.7; 16th=23.5)

 

EDIT: Ooh, and a potential correlation: 6 AFC teams have allowed 24+ points 12 times or less over the past 2 years. All 6 have made the playoffs at least once, and 4 of the 6 have made the playoffs both years!

This really is the headline of the Rex Ryan era. Great work Hokie!!
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First - the best part of TT's game is his mobility - so none of the stats "surprise" me. What it tells me is that under pressure - where he can't think and plays on instinct - he plays better. When he has time and an open field to read and absorb - he wants to make the perfect play and therefore is much less effective.

 

if I am a team playing TT - I look to what Baltimore did and I want to force him to be a QB and force him to read the field and make decisions- I think that is where TT struggles and that is why teams talk about making him be a QB.

Roch - thanks for the detailed response.

 

What I copied and pasted from your post is really a misinterpretation of the data. Tyrod is absolutely not "better" when under pressure. Our offense's DVOA, like every offense except for the Packers, was negative when Tyrod was under pressure.

 

Tyrod is really great under pressure relative to every other QB in the league but he still isn't playing at his best. Tyrod is at his best, like all QBs, when he has time in the pocket to evaluate the field and throw the ball. A defense that gets pressure on Tyrod should still expect on average to have a positive play.

 

If our pass protection improves in 2017, our offense should be better overall. How much better also depends on if the rest of our offense can keep their other measures where they were. If for example our run game declines we will need the pass protection and/or Tyrod to be that much better.

Finished the AFC tonight, will work on NFC tomorrow.

Over the past 2 years the Bills are 9-9 in games where we score 24+. The only AFC Teams with equal or worse win rates scoring 24+ are:

Chargers (7-7)

Jaguars (4-4)

Browns (3-6)

 

In that same time span the Bills also average more points per game in losses (21.9) than any other AFC team (2nd=19.6; 16th=14.2)

and in losses, the Bills average 30.5 points allowed per game, good for 2nd most in the AFC (1st=30.7; 16th=23.5)

 

EDIT: Ooh, and a potential correlation: 6 AFC teams have allowed 24+ points 12 times or less over the past 2 years. All 6 have made the playoffs at least once, and 4 of the 6 have made the playoffs both years!

I don't have anything to add but thank you for running this data. It is very illuminating.

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Just read through this thread, and clearly Thurman and Rochesterfan had the best and most accurate posts.

 

This thread kind of piggybacks off of the last Tyrod thread and Transplants post near the end about Tyrod and how he fares under pressure, and at that time I argued how that was not surprising because of his mobility and ability to make things happen. It was met with opposition from a certain pro Tyrod poster who challenged this assertion with inadequate information. I'm glad to see this brought back up so that we can get more answers on it.

 

You can name me. You don't have to say "a certain pro Tyrod poster." I was the one who challenged your assertion because it was wrong.

 

You, Thurman, and RF all seem to be under the impression that every time Taylor's under pressure, he breaks the pocket or scrambles. You call visual proof from easy access of Taylor's TD highlights, which show a QB only leaving the pocket 20% of the time when pressured "inadequate information?" If it is, I don't know what to give you. You certainly aren't going to trust me if I go through every single pass of Taylor and count 'em up. I won't waste my time doing that when there's no chance anything will sway you.

 

If you have game pass, go watch every single passing play from Taylor and count them up for yourself. Even if you're looking at those plays with biased eyes, at least you're putting in some effort :flirt:

Can we just wait for the 2017 season and let that speak for itself?

 

Then what are we supposed to do here in the meantime? :huh:

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i don't think there are a lot of people complaining about the offense. the DEFENSE is what let us down last year. the only complaint about the offense was that once down, there was no way we are coming back. Tyrod can't air it out and get us back into games if we are down by a lot and he can't lead a game winning 2 min drive. the only way this will work is with a dominating defense that keeps the score low and for Tyrod and company to effectively and consistently move the ball and put up points

 

There are at least an incredibly vocal minority complaining about the offense. It's possible there aren't a lot of them, but the few there are get very vocal and sometimes belligerent about it.

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There are at least an incredibly vocal minority complaining about the offense. It's possible there aren't a lot of them, but the few there are get very vocal and sometimes belligerent about it.

People in glass houses shouldn't throw stones transplant.

 

I've an idea for you. Start a new thread / Poll and make it public where people can go on record. This way we shall see "for real" who is in the minority and who isn't.

 

Maybe some people are sick and tired of posting the same thing day after day after day after day. I know I grow tired of it.

 

I'm even more tired of being called out as a hater and having an agenda.

Edited by ShadyBillsFan
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:worthy:

 

no one can dispute that. It has to happen more often than not as well, once a season isn't enough

I guess that I don't know why it's fair to expect the offense to do it more than most? The Hokie stats are pretty damning. The Bills offense shouldn't be vilified for not achieving something that other offenses aren't forced to achieve. They lost 6 games scoring 24 points!! That's more than the AFC playoff teams combined. If you picked up the 2015-2016 Bills offense and paired it with a decent defense you are looking at 11 wins. Edited by Kirby Jackson
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