QB comparative data for Tyrod from Cian Fahey to discuss

[Shaw66]

We are in agreement at the start and the end.

 

Do passer ratings matter, sure, but more so IMO in the 4th QTR. I believe I read (numerous places) that TT's 4th QRT ratings (65.8) are much poorer than the other portions of his game.

 

I've also see it where it claims he has the best rating of 117.

 

The other issue that people seem to care about is Taylor has 1 fourth-quarter comeback in 7 games down by 7 (=/-1pt) Two if you count being tied at the start of the 4th. The one time was against the Titans (that happened to be a bad team).

 

In general conversation -

Not sure if rumblings is a good place to cite...

With the game on the line, Taylor has a horrid quarterback rating of 0.0 (that isn’t a typo). He’s completed only 3 of 10 throws for 26 yards along with an interception.

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2016/10/24/12862326/tyrod-taylor-late-game-situations-will-we-ever-see-tyrod-taylor-s-clutch-gene

 

The other argument I've seen posted - missing his best guys.

 

Look elsewhere around the NFL. Phillip Rivers has been missing his two top receivers and is still in the top 5 in passing yardage. Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton were without their top weapons last season and still managed to be top-20 quarterbacks.

Shady -

 

Taylor's 4th quarter passer rating in 2016 was 86. In 2015 it was 101.

 

In 2015 with the scored tied his passer rating was 88. When losing his passer rating was 95. In 2016 it was 92 and 92.

 

I think you need better data.

 

It's funny; I'm constantly defending Taylor here, and I'm not at all convinced he's the guy. But there are so many misstatements and misrepresentations about his performance, it's crazy.

 

The problem with Taylor's late-game, close-game performance is not that it's bad. The problem is that it isn't as good as the best QBs. His late-game, close-game numbers are like his numbers at other times. The best QBs get BETTER in those situations.

[John from Riverside]

Shady -

 

Taylor's 4th quarter passer rating in 2016 was 86. In 2015 it was 101.

 

In 2015 with the scored tied his passer rating was 88. When losing his passer rating was 95. In 2016 it was 92 and 92.

 

I think you need better data.

 

It's funny; I'm constantly defending Taylor here, and I'm not at all convinced he's the guy. But there are so many misstatements and misrepresentations about his performance, it's crazy.

 

The problem with Taylor's late-game, close-game performance is not that it's bad. The problem is that it isn't as good as the best QBs. His late-game, close-game numbers are like his numbers at other times. The best QBs get BETTER in those situations.

That is where I am at as well....there is so much monkey **** that gets thrown at the wall about TT that I find myself defending him more then I really want to.

[transplantbillsfan]

Look at it this way, these are not accurate numbers, but lets say by design Taylor made 200 pass attempts throughout the season and every other QB in the league threw by design 300 pass attempts or more. Do you see why it would be useless to use low totals as a knock againt Taylor in a QB evaluation when the OC/HC made the determination they were going to run the football more then any other team in the league.

 

High yardage totals with a high INT totals is also another thing fans need to take into consideration. How many yards, change of field position and points did the INT cost you? if you calculated it all up you might find out 200 yards passing and zero turnovers is better then 300yards passing and 1 or 2 INT's.

 

One stat or yardage total doesn't give you enough information...

 

So I kind of left this out of the conversation because I know there are a handful of posters who are just going to yuck this up, but one of the other significant things Fahey discusses is what Taylor does for the running game. One of his bullet points in the shorthand skill set is how Taylor "diversifies the run game with designed run plays and options."

 

A short excerpt:​

 

The defenders fear Taylor holding the ball so the backside defenders can't crack down to close off the space the running back gets. The Bills had the top-ranked running game by a large margin last year according to FootballOutsiders' DVOA rankings, which measure success rate on a play-by-play basis and adjust for the quality of the opposition. Taylor was as much a part of that success as McCoy or the offensive line. He diversifies the running game in such a way that a more typical NFL quarterback wouldn't.

[transplantbillsfan]

Shady -

 

Taylor's 4th quarter passer rating in 2016 was 86. In 2015 it was 101.

 

In 2015 with the scored tied his passer rating was 88. When losing his passer rating was 95. In 2016 it was 92 and 92.

 

I think you need better data.

 

It's funny; I'm constantly defending Taylor here, and I'm not at all convinced he's the guy. But there are so many misstatements and misrepresentations about his performance, it's crazy.

 

The problem with Taylor's late-game, close-game performance is not that it's bad. The problem is that it isn't as good as the best QBs. His late-game, close-game numbers are like his numbers at other times. The best QBs get BETTER in those situations.

 

Yep

That is where I am at as well....there is so much monkey **** that gets thrown at the wall about TT that I find myself defending him more then I really want to.

 

Again... yep... people are ridiculous in how extreme their views are, and extremism invites opposition.

[Shaw66]

 

So I kind of left this out of the conversation because I know there are a handful of posters who are just going to yuck this up, but one of the other significant things Fahey discusses is what Taylor does for the running game. One of his bullet points in the shorthand skill set is how Taylor "diversifies the run game with designed run plays and options."

 

A short excerpt:​

 

The defenders fear Taylor holding the ball so the backside defenders can't crack down to close off the space the running back gets. The Bills had the top-ranked running game by a large margin last year according to FootballOutsiders' DVOA rankings, which measure success rate on a play-by-play basis and adjust for the quality of the opposition. Taylor was as much a part of that success as McCoy or the offensive line. He diversifies the running game in such a way that a more typical NFL quarterback wouldn't.

But this is the kind of stuff that I'm really skeptical about. Other than the citation to Football Outsiders, these statements are completely conclusory, with NO EVIDENCE to support them other than, maybe, Fahey's observations after film review. The guy has ZERO football experience, and yet we're supposed to believe his conclusions about Taylor's impact on the running game. He may be right, but I'm not going to believe it just because he said it.

[Foxx]

This argument is for another thread, but still I want to make the point.

 

TAYLOR DID NOT TAKE A CONTRACT CUT.

 

Taylor gave up about $10 million of guaranteed money so that he could become a free agent in two years instead of five years.

 

I know a professional agent. He has represented some of the biggest names in sports. I mean BIGGEST. I asked him which was a better deal for Tyrod, the one Tyrod had or the one he took in March. He said the one he got in March, no question, no question at all. He said he would have urged Tyrod to take the deal the Bills offered. Free agency in two years is worth MUCH more than the $10 million he gave up.

 

This idea that Tyrod gave in to the Bills because he had no options is just wrong. The Bills came to him with their hats in their hands looking for help. Tyrod gave them something they wanted in exchange for something he wanted - free agency.

 

If Tyrod plays the full season in 2017 and the Bills make the playoffs, Tyrod will get a new contract next year much better than the one he gave up last month. If that happens, everyone will look back and blame Whaley for renegotiating.

[cough]bull ****[cough][cough]

 

if it was such a great deal, why aren't more players signing one year deals instead of long term deals?

 

[cough]bull ****[cough][cough]

[Figster]

 

So I kind of left this out of the conversation because I know there are a handful of posters who are just going to yuck this up, but one of the other significant things Fahey discusses is what Taylor does for the running game. One of his bullet points in the shorthand skill set is how Taylor "diversifies the run game with designed run plays and options."

 

A short excerpt:​

 

The defenders fear Taylor holding the ball so the backside defenders can't crack down to close off the space the running back gets. The Bills had the top-ranked running game by a large margin last year according to FootballOutsiders' DVOA rankings, which measure success rate on a play-by-play basis and adjust for the quality of the opposition. Taylor was as much a part of that success as McCoy or the offensive line. He diversifies the running game in such a way that a more typical NFL quarterback wouldn't.

Buffalo led the league with a 5.3 per rush attempt wich is an indication the RB's despite being a run 1st O had plenty of room to roam.

 

I find this to be true, Taylor deserves credit for calling, participating in and opening up space for the run game in my humble opinion.

 

 

[cough]bull ****[cough][cough]

 

if it was such a great deal, why aren't more players signing one year deals instead of long term deals?

 

[cough]bull ****[cough][cough]

Go eat a cough drop,

[transplantbillsfan]

[cough]bull ****[cough][cough]

 

if it was such a great deal, why aren't more players signing one year deals instead of long term deals?

 

[cough]bull ****[cough][cough]

C'mon man... what a thoughtless response to a pretty thoughtful post, even if it's one I don't 100% agree with, either.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Shady -

 

Taylor's 4th quarter passer rating in 2016 was 86. In 2015 it was 101.

 

In 2015 with the scored tied his passer rating was 88. When losing his passer rating was 95. In 2016 it was 92 and 92.

 

I think you need better data.

 

It's funny; I'm constantly defending Taylor here, and I'm not at all convinced he's the guy. But there are so many misstatements and misrepresentations about his performance, it's crazy.

 

The problem with Taylor's late-game, close-game performance is not that it's bad. The problem is that it isn't as good as the best QBs. His late-game, close-game numbers are like his numbers at other times. The best QBs get BETTER in those situations.

I believe the "argument " here is that stats don't necessarily equal Wins.

As to the stats I got them from sites that I thought I posted links to.

[Shaw66]

I believe the "argument " here is that stats don't necessarily equal Wins.

As to the stats I got them from sites that I thought I posted links to.

No.

 

The argument is that people post information that is wrong and then base their argument on it. You said you believe you'd seen it posted (no link) in several places that Tyrod's 4th quarter passer rating is 65. It isn't. It's more like 90, which isn't bad.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

No.

 

The argument is that people post information that is wrong and then base their argument on it. You said you believe you'd seen it posted (no link) in several places that Tyrod's 4th quarter passer rating is 65. It isn't. It's more like 90, which isn't bad.

This is what happens on boards. You post something and some people interpret it one way or another.

 

TT is a decent QB and a good stopgap.

My argument IS that all this talk of how good his stats are does not equate to Wins.

 

If you choose to not accept my argument then there is no heed to continue this discussion.

[Big Gun]

No.

 

The argument is that people post information that is wrong and then base their argument on it. You said you believe you'd seen it posted (no link) in several places that Tyrod's 4th quarter passer rating is 65. It isn't. It's more like 90, which isn't bad.

It was 86 in 4th qtr last year. Ok I guess but needs to be better.

 

Some others completely random

 

Prescott 106.4

Stafford 86.1

Ryan 97

Bortles 82.9

Osweilier 83.5

Rodgers 114.4

Dalton 78.7

Luck 107.5

Tannehill 92.3

Siemian 101.9

[RayFinkle]

There's an actual name for this kind of logical fallacy.

 

I can't think of the name right now, though.

 

Anyone...?

 

 

Besides, did I post an actual assessment by him of Taylor? Do you believe he skews his data because he's enamored with Taylor?

It is possible to "cook" your data to tell the story you want in almost any situation. That being said, since this analysis wasn't about Tyrod, but rather the league as a whole, it is interesting to see where Tyrod stacks up.

 

The obvious issue with this post is, without seeing the rest of the data, it is tough to get a feel for it's accuracy. As an example, if Blane Gabbert is consistently rated higher than Matty Ice or other Probowl QBs, there is likely an issue with how the data is being presented.

[Shaw66]

This is what happens on boards. You post something and some people interpret it one way or another.

 

TT is a decent QB and a good stopgap.

My argument IS that all this talk of how good his stats are does not equate to Wins.

 

If you choose to not accept my argument then there is no heed to continue this discussion.

I agree with you, at least for now. If the Bills had a true franchise QB and they weren't winning, I wouldn't be looking to unload him. But that's not where the Bills are. There are real questions about whether the Bills can win with Taylor.

 

But you don't help your credibility by supporting your argument with stats that aren't true. If you think Taylor isn't a winner, that's a legitimate opinion and there's some evidence to support it. But when you say his 4th quarter passer rating was 65 when it was 90, I have to wonder if your opinion is based on anything real.

It was 86 in 4th qtr last year. Ok I guess but needs to be better.

 

Some others completely random

 

Prescott 106.4

Stafford 86.1

Ryan 97

Bortles 82.9

Osweilier 83.5

Rodgers 114.4

Dalton 78.7

Luck 107.5

Tannehill 92.3

Siemian 101.9

Right. That's exactly what I said. His 4th quarter passer rating isn't bad; it's right around his passer rating for the season - a little below in each of the last two seasons. The problem is that the really good QBs, the guys many people think are special, have BETTER passer ratings in the fourth quarter than they average for the season.

[hondo in seattle]

This is why I'm still a big fan of yards per game. Not as the be-all, end-all stat. But as an important component of any evaluation.

 

It's one thing to produce efficient looking numbers when you're throwing 15 times per game.

 

It's another thing to drop back on the majority of plays and challenge the D to stop you from getting the ball downfield and they can't.

 

I want to see Tyrod become the kind of QB who can do the latter.

Edited May 5, 2017 by hondo in seattle

[Figster]

This is why I'm still a big fan of yards per game. Not as the be-all, end-all stat. But as an important component of any evaluation.

 

It's one thing to produce efficient looking numbers when you're throwing 15 times per game.

 

It's another thing to drop back on the majority of plays and challenge the D to stop you from getting the ball downfield and they can't.

 

I want to see Tyrod become the kind of QB who can do the latter.

We all do,

 

good post...

[Meathead]

ohhhhhhh

 

The PASSES are behind the LOS...that makes more sense lol.

 

lmao

 

hes not such a great thrower when hes behind the los but when hes running downfield he can really uncork it

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Lol.... Tyrod Taylor - the worst two time probowl QB nominee in NFL history

 

3time ACC champion and ACC player of the year "sucked in college" too.

 

The anti TT crowd can't accept he might just be 'an ok NFL QB'

Edited May 5, 2017 by Over 28 years of fanhood

[Shaw66]

This is why I'm still a big fan of yards per game. Not as the be-all, end-all stat. But as an important component of any evaluation.

 

It's one thing to produce efficient looking numbers when you're throwing 15 times per game.

 

It's another thing to drop back on the majority of plays and challenge the D to stop you from getting the ball downfield and they can't.

 

I want to see Tyrod become the kind of QB who can do the latter.

I agree that the Bills need more yards per game passing, but it's hard to fault the QB when the game plan is to throw fewer than 25 times per game.

 

Some people will argue (they always do) that he isn't asked to throw more because the more he throws, the worse he gets. However, the data doesn't support that, either. Some of his best games (and some of his worst) were when he threw over 30.

[Figster]

I agree that the Bills need more yards per game passing, but it's hard to fault the QB when the game plan is to throw fewer than 25 times per game.

 

Some people will argue (they always do) that he isn't asked to throw more because the more he throws, the worse he gets. However, the data doesn't support that, either. Some of his best games (and some of his worst) were when he threw over 30.

Overall Taylor has lacked the amount of practice and game reps in the passing game to gel properly with his supporting cast in my humble opinion.

[transplantbillsfan]

This is what happens on boards. You post something and some people interpret it one way or another.

 

TT is a decent QB and a good stopgap.

My argument IS that all this talk of how good his stats are does not equate to Wins.

 

If you choose to not accept my argument then there is no heed to continue this discussion.

 

You're right, people interpret things people post one way or another. Well, that's because it's based on what people say and the implications of what they say.

 

Shaw corrected the assumption that Taylor's passer rating was super low in the 4th quarter because it somehow furthered an argument. Doesn't it stand to reason that if the cited passer rating was incorrect, the argument would be at least weaker, too?

 

 

Also, and again, this has to do with interpreting what people say, but your 2nd to last sentence there sure does look like you're implying something about team wins as stronger indications of good QBs than stats.

 

You're probably going to come back and say that's not what you mean, but it sure looks like that's what you mean.

 

QBs with fewer wins than Taylor in 2016:

 

Rivers

Dalton

Newton

Palmer

 

QBs with the same number of wins as Taylor in 2016:

 

Brees

Wentz

 

 

Taylor's obviously not better than or as good as all those QBs, so this wins with QBs thing really needs to stop or be severely cut back.

[CardinalScotts]

for me I stops at the eyeball test, Tyrod is a good enough qb to make a wildcard spot. He's running is a crucial part of this offense and some want to ignore it, the job of the qb is to put up points ANYWAY they can and he does. Now is a 10 year starter ? Very unlikely but at least he will have some guys to throw to who aren't coming off their couch at home to start and a real opportunity to grade him out will be available.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

This is why I'm still a big fan of yards per game. Not as the be-all, end-all stat. But as an important component of any evaluation.

 

It's one thing to produce efficient looking numbers when you're throwing 15 times per game.

 

It's another thing to drop back on the majority of plays and challenge the D to stop you from getting the ball downfield and they can't.

 

I want to see Tyrod become the kind of QB who can do the latter.

This

Rivers

Dalton

Newton

Palmer

 

QBs with the same number of wins as Taylor in 2016:

 

Brees

Wentz

 

 

I'll take QB's who can pass the ball for $1000 Alex

 

Thanks for agreeing with me.

 

Good Stats do not = wins.

[BillsFan4]

This is why I'm still a big fan of yards per game. Not as the be-all, end-all stat. But as an important component of any evaluation.

 

It's one thing to produce efficient looking numbers when you're throwing 15 times per game.

 

It's another thing to drop back on the majority of plays and challenge the D to stop you from getting the ball downfield and they can't.

 

I want to see Tyrod become the kind of QB who can do the latter.

 

Are you talking total yards, or passing yards?

 

If you're talking passing yards, there's a reason it's considered low on the list of measures to evaluate a QB.

Passing yards isn't just what a QB throws for. It also includes the yards a receiver gets after the catch, and some offenses are better designed than others for YAC. Plus it doesn't take into account passing attempts either.

 

For example, Greg Roman's offense has always been near the bottom of the league in YAC (all 4 years in SF were near bottom of the NFL and his 2 years in Buffalo I believe we were dead last in YAC), and that's with a number of different QBs. I can't really just put the blame on his QBs either, because they were near the bottom in YAC with Alex Smith, who then goes to KC and is near the top of the NFL in YAC.

 

I think yards per attempt and air yards are a better measure to look at as far as passing yards go, because those stats don't have YAC added in.

I definitely agree that Tyrod has to improve his passing game though, that is for sure.

[WideRightRevenge]

So the arguments I see are Yards per Game, Yards per Catch .. .Yada Yada Yada

 

I'll take 4th Quarter Comebacks for a $1,000 Alex.

 

RING RING RING .. you hit the daily double ....

 

Wide Right Revenge bets $2,000.

 

The answer is "2".

 

Question .. Alex .. the Question is .. how many 4th Quarter Comebacks has TT had the past two seasons?

 

WINNER WINNER CHICKEN DINNER

 

Throw all those stats out .. .last year Stafford had 8 .. count them 8 4th Quarter comebacks ... Carr had 7 (less years in the league than TT) ... Dak had 5 (a rookie mind you). Look for yourself.

 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/passing.htm

[Crusher]

The problem with Fahey and his whole evaluation is that the QB data is flawed and therefor cannot be compared as equal. Different Qb's run different offensive schemes, and some require much more complexity, risk taking, and ownership to make adjustments according to what they see pre snap.

 

Taylor ran about as simplified and basic an offense as a QB can. Lynn did this after he couldn't handle Roman's offense.

 

Taylor's accuracy and turnover ratio is good when viewed through the narrow lens that Fahey is looking through, but when you look at what other QB's are doing in terms of complexity, responsibility, and the chances they take to make plays for their team, Taylor looks like a guy that doesn't measure up.

 

This is why people use the eye test and come away not being very impressed with Taylor and his numbers, and routinely find guys with more INT's to look much more capable at the position. Carson Wentz is a guy who you may come away unimpressed with if you look at his raw numbers, but he clearly runs his team's offense, and does alot to give his team a chance to win. I would take Wentz over Taylor with no hesitation.

 

The bottom line is that Taylor is the posterchild for misleading stats. What you see on paper looks good, but what you are actually getting on the field is below average production and an offense that fails when it matters most. Dare Taylor to win with his arm late in games and you are a virtual lock to win against the Bills.

[mannc]

The problem with Fahey and his whole evaluation is that the QB data is flawed and therefor cannot be compared as equal. Different Qb's run different offensive schemes, and some require much more complexity, risk taking, and ownership to make adjustments according to what they see pre snap.

 

Taylor ran about as simplified and basic an offense as a QB can. Lynn did this after he couldn't handle Roman's offense.

 

Taylor's accuracy and turnover ratio is good when viewed through the narrow lens that Fahey is looking through, but when you look at what other QB's are doing in terms of complexity, responsibility, and the chances they take to make plays for their team, Taylor looks like a guy that doesn't measure up.

 

This is why people use the eye test and come away not being very impressed with Taylor and his numbers, and routinely find guys with more INT's to look much more capable at the position. Carson Wentz is a guy who you may come away unimpressed with if you look at his raw numbers, but he clearly runs his team's offense, and does alot to give his team a chance to win. I would take Wentz over Taylor with no hesitation.

 

The bottom line is that Taylor is the posterchild for misleading stats. What you see on paper looks good, but what you are actually getting on the field is below average production and an offense that fails when it matters most. Dare Taylor to win with his arm late in games and you are a virtual lock to win against the Bills.

There is not a scrap of evidence to support a single thing you've said here. For example, your statement that Wentz "does a lot to give his team a chance to win" is utterly meaningless, and is certainly not supported by the objective fact that the Eagles, after starting the season 3-0, finished 7-9, even though they had a far better defense than Buffalo did last year. And as you acknowledge, Wentz's numbers, especially after the first four games, were worse than Tyrod's. What's your explanation for that?

 

Tyrod is not a great QB, but he's also far from terrible. Fahey's stats are an attempt to provide context and insight beyond the usual numbers like completion percentage, TD/int. ratio, etc. They aren't necessarily the final word, but they undeniably provide a deeper, evidence-based perspective on QB performance.

[Shaw66]

Crushed makes a lot of good points but I think its too conclusory.

 

First it ignores the point BillsFan4 made about a lot depending on the offense the guy is running. In particular, if you look at the data on most teams that run a lot you'll find that they struggle in the fourth quarter.

 

Second that's particularly true if the QB doesn't have quality receivers on the field.

 

Third, although people don't like to hear it, QBs need onfield experience. His fourbueats on the bench don't amount to much on the experience category. Taylor is still learning. Will he improve? I don't know. But he needs at least another year. And maybe two, if Watkins leaves after this season. And he's in a new offense.

 

Lots of variables. Just because she hasn't done everything yet doesn't mean that he won't.

[John from Riverside]

So the arguments I see are Yards per Game, Yards per Catch .. .Yada Yada Yada

 

I'll take 4th Quarter Comebacks for a $1,000 Alex.

 

RING RING RING .. you hit the daily double ....

 

Wide Right Revenge bets $2,000.

 

The answer is "2".

 

Question .. Alex .. the Question is .. how many 4th Quarter Comebacks has TT had the past two seasons?

 

WINNER WINNER CHICKEN DINNER

 

Throw all those stats out .. .last year Stafford had 8 .. count them 8 4th Quarter comebacks ... Carr had 7 (less years in the league than TT) ... Dak had 5 (a rookie mind you). Look for yourself.

 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/passing.htm

Those things cannot all be layed at the qbs feet......the players around them need to execute.

The problem with Fahey and his whole evaluation is that the QB data is flawed and therefor cannot be compared as equal. Different Qb's run different offensive schemes, and some require much more complexity, risk taking, and ownership to make adjustments according to what they see pre snap.

 

Taylor ran about as simplified and basic an offense as a QB can. Lynn did this after he couldn't handle Roman's offense.

 

Taylor's accuracy and turnover ratio is good when viewed through the narrow lens that Fahey is looking through, but when you look at what other QB's are doing in terms of complexity, responsibility, and the chances they take to make plays for their team, Taylor looks like a guy that doesn't measure up.

 

This is why people use the eye test and come away not being very impressed with Taylor and his numbers, and routinely find guys with more INT's to look much more capable at the position. Carson Wentz is a guy who you may come away unimpressed with if you look at his raw numbers, but he clearly runs his team's offense, and does alot to give his team a chance to win. I would take Wentz over Taylor with no hesitation.

 

The bottom line is that Taylor is the posterchild for misleading stats. What you see on paper looks good, but what you are actually getting on the field is below average production and an offense that fails when it matters most. Dare Taylor to win with his arm late in games and you are a virtual lock to win against the Bills.

Your posts are aweful.....they are literally the kind of bait that causes people like me to defend TT more then I really want to

[mannc]

Those things cannot all be layed at the qbs feet......the players around them need to execute.

 

And coaches need to not call reverses to Reggie Bush or punts from the other team's 42 yard line in OT.

[Shaw66]

And coaches need to not call reverses to Reggie Bush or punts from the other team's 42 yard line in OT.

I don't remember the game, the situation or the play, exactly, but giving the ball to Reggie on that play was an instant classic on a dumb calls of the season show.

[HappyDays]

I don't remember the game, the situation or the play, exactly, but giving the ball to Reggie on that play was an instant classic on a dumb calls of the season show.

It was the 2nd Miami game. It was also the game where we had 10 players on the field on a play that put the Dolphins back into FG range after what should have been our game winning TD. Coaching was the #1 problem last year.

[transplantbillsfan]

This is why I'm still a big fan of yards per game. Not as the be-all, end-all stat. But as an important component of any evaluation.

 

It's one thing to produce efficient looking numbers when you're throwing 15 times per game.

 

It's another thing to drop back on the majority of plays and challenge the D to stop you from getting the ball downfield and they can't.

 

I want to see Tyrod become the kind of QB who can do the latter.

Well, according to Fahey, Taylor's ADOT (Average Depth Of Throw) is 9.27 yards, or 7th in the league.

 

Even disregarding that number, though, I don't think folks would say pushing the ball down the field is a problem for Taylor.

Thanks for agreeing with me.

 

Good Stats do not = wins.

I do agree.

 

Neither do good QBs.

[transplantbillsfan]

 

RING RING RING .. you hit the daily double ....

 

Wide Right Revenge bets $2,000.

 

The answer is "2".

 

Question .. Alex .. the Question is .. how many 4th Quarter Comebacks has TT had the past two seasons?

 

WINNER WINNER CHICKEN DINNER

 

Throw all those stats out .. .last year Stafford had 8 .. count them 8 4th Quarter comebacks ... Carr had 7 (less years in the league than TT) ... Dak had 5 (a rookie mind you). Look for yourself.

 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/passing.htm

So Rodgers must be terrible, dude's 0-35 when trailing teams by more than 1 point with winning records in the 4th quarter.

http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/green-bay-packers-aaron-rodgers-clutch-nfc-championship-stat-012217

 

CUT THAT GUY!!!!

Edited May 6, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[GoBills808]

Crushed makes a lot of good points but I think its too conclusory.

 

First it ignores the point BillsFan4 made about a lot depending on the offense the guy is running. In particular, if you look at the data on most teams that run a lot you'll find that they struggle in the fourth quarter.

 

Second that's particularly true if the QB doesn't have quality receivers on the field.

 

Third, although people don't like to hear it, QBs need onfield experience. His fourbueats on the bench don't amount to much on the experience category. Taylor is still learning. Will he improve? I don't know. But he needs at least another year. And maybe two, if Watkins leaves after this season. And he's in a new offense.

 

Lots of variables. Just because she hasn't done everything yet doesn't mean that he won't.

 

I agree that it's difficult to use YAC as a QB measurable between different offensive systems, but why can't you say that all things being equal, hitting a receiver in stride (ie throwing an accurate, NFL level pass) is going to usually produce better numbers? I mean, you can't just wash your hands and say, 'Well, all offensive systems are different and we don't know what the playcall was anyway, so you can't use YAC to judge a QB's performance.' We have to be able to use SOME statistics. Otherwise you might as well throw everything out, including passer rating and the things that Taylor scores either average or above average on, because it's possible the offensive system we run is conducive to high QB rating and isn't indicative of the actual quality of said QB at all.

 

Let's just be consistent. If we're going to qualify certain statistics because offensive systems are a variable, do it for all statistics good and bad.

[mannc]

 

I agree that it's difficult to use YAC as a QB measurable between different offensive systems, but why can't you say that all things being equal, hitting a receiver in stride (ie throwing an accurate, NFL level pass) is going to usually produce better numbers? I mean, you can't just wash your hands and say, 'Well, all offensive systems are different and we don't know what the playcall was anyway, so you can't use YAC to judge a QB's performance.' We have to be able to use SOME statistics. Otherwise you might as well throw everything out, including passer rating and the things that Taylor scores either average or above average on, because it's possible the offensive system we run is conducive to high QB rating and isn't indicative of the actual quality of said QB at all.

 

Let's just be consistent. If we're going to qualify certain statistics because offensive systems are a variable, do it for all statistics good and bad.

There are lots of good statistics with which to judge QBs. YAC is probably the worst; it may in fact be entirely useless.

[Domdab99]

One thing I don't get about all the TT bashing, is that those doing the bashing apparently think franchise QBs grow on trees. The 50th best QB in the world is someone like Mark Sanchez. Playing QB is incredibly hard.

 

TT is a top 20 QB. But some fans are like, get rid of him! Draft Mahomes! Draft Watson! There is no gurantee that either of these players will be any better than Sanchez, much less Tyrod.

 

And then there's the crowd already mortgaging present and future draft picks for Darnold or Rosen next year. It's ridiculous. Andrew Luck does not come around every year.

 

The Bills can win with TT. Play to his strengths, have a scheme that lets him succeed. Have receivers who are better than scrubs, etc.

 

TT is our QB for the at least one more season...probably more, unless Peterman steps up. Get used to it.

[mannc]

One thing I don't get about all the TT bashing, is that those doing the bashing apparently think franchise QBs grow on trees. The 50th best QB in the world is someone like Mark Sanchez. Playing QB is incredibly hard.

 

TT is a top 20 QB. But some fans are like, get rid of him! Draft Mahomes! Draft Watson! There is no gurantee that either of these players will be any better than Sanchez, much less Tyrod.

 

And then there's the crowd already mortgaging present and future draft picks for Darnold or Rosen next year. It's ridiculous. Andrew Luck does not come around every year.

 

The Bills can win with TT. Play to his strengths, have a scheme that lets him succeed. Have receivers who are better than scrubs, etc.

 

TT is our QB for the at least one more season...probably more, unless Peterman steps up. Get used to it.

Thank you. The Bills' QB situation is better than it's been at any time since Jim Kelly retired. They have a starter who is at least NFL average and two young backups with potential. The last think anyone should be thinking about is mortgaging the future next year for another rookie.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Are you talking total yards, or passing yards?

 

If you're talking passing yards, there's a reason it's considered low on the list of measures to evaluate a QB.

Passing yards isn't just what a QB throws for. It also includes the yards a receiver gets after the catch, and some offenses are better designed than others for YAC. Plus it doesn't take into account passing attempts either.

 

For example, Greg Roman's offense has always been near the bottom of the league in YAC (all 4 years in SF were near bottom of the NFL and his 2 years in Buffalo I believe we were dead last in YAC), and that's with a number of different QBs. I can't really just put the blame on his QBs either, because they were near the bottom in YAC with Alex Smith, who then goes to KC and is near the top of the NFL in YAC.

 

I think yards per attempt and air yards are a better measure to look at as far as passing yards go, because those stats don't have YAC added in.

I definitely agree that Tyrod has to improve his passing game though, that is for sure.

 

As far as QB effectiveness is concerned, I don't think anyone would like to argue that Brady is not an effective QB. Yet it's not atypical for his air yards to be only 50% or so of his passing yards total. He makes his living with those short passes over the middle that his WR turn into 10-15 yd gains. My point is don't discount YAC as part of the measure of an effective QB. You are correct that they are affected by the design of the passing game as well as the QB's play.

 

As far as I know, YPA includes YAC?

 

Passing yards aren't high on the list of QB measurables in part because it turns out they are not strongly correlated to winning games. Stands to reason, right, a lot of teams rack up passing yardage in "come from behind" situations.

[John from Riverside]

One thing I don't get about all the TT bashing, is that those doing the bashing apparently think franchise QBs grow on trees. The 50th best QB in the world is someone like Mark Sanchez. Playing QB is incredibly hard.

 

TT is a top 20 QB. But some fans are like, get rid of him! Draft Mahomes! Draft Watson! There is no gurantee that either of these players will be any better than Sanchez, much less Tyrod.

 

And then there's the crowd already mortgaging present and future draft picks for Darnold or Rosen next year. It's ridiculous. Andrew Luck does not come around every year.

 

The Bills can win with TT. Play to his strengths, have a scheme that lets him succeed. Have receivers who are better than scrubs, etc.

 

TT is our QB for the at least one more season...probably more, unless Peterman steps up. Get used to it.

Folks want a top 10 qb

 

Hard to find these guys....