We should trade Sammy

[YoloinOhio]

 

This is a major benefit of why the tag may be the better option

and the injury guarantee. If they pick up the option, and he gets hurt before March 2018, they are on the hook for the whole contract. If they don't feel comfortable enough right now with the foot, it's smart to wait and use the tag. You pay 2-3 mill extra for the tag but it's probably the wiser option of the two of the medical staff can't give a definative call on the foot.

 

In some cases the player works out multi year extensions in lieu of the option, which was the case with guys like Eric Fisher, Doug Martin, Mark Barron last year.

Edited May 1, 2017 by YoloinOhio

[Boatdrinks]

I think it is not a big deal between giving him the option and tagging him, except that tagging can be done at the end of next season.

 

I think it's about $4 mil difference. Not exactly chump change. I think if you want to keep the player, you don't burn bridges and not pick the option.

[JaCrispy]

and the injury guarantee. If they pick up the option, and he gets hurt before March 2018, they are on the hook for the whole contract. If they don't feel comfortable enough right now with the foot, it's smart to wait and use the tag. You pay 2-3 mill extra for the tag but it's probably the wiser option of the two of the medical staff can't give a definative call on the foot.

 

In some cases the player works out multi year extensions in lieu of the option, which was the case with guys like Eric Fisher, Doug Martin, Mark Barron last year.

Yeah, I think you are right.

I think it's about $4 mil difference. Not exactly chump change. I think if you want to keep the player, you don't burn bridges and not pick the option.

See,I think this is where a lot of teams fall into the same old trap...look at the Pats...they treat everything like a business transaction and they don't care about burning bridges....they do what they have to, to protect their own butts- and it works...they are very successful and they always come out ahead in their personnel decisions as a result.

[The Frankish Reich]

"Better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late." Branch Rickey. And we're a year too late on Sammy. With one year on his contract and iffy health, he'd probably get you a 4th rounder or so. Last year this time? 1st rounder wouldn't have been out of the question.

[wilcoam]

I;m not against trading any player including Sammy, but it should be noted the moment you do not pick up his option, his trade value likely drops in half, as he will be an impending free agent

 

To my knowledge in the last 5-6 years only one impending FA was successfully traded, and they didn't get a first rounder in return

 

Just saying over at the old BBMB fans loved to trade Bills players daily, but when you asked the fan to name similar trades in the NFL in recent history, they never could come up with any examples, because they didn't exist, so its not so easy to make such a trade, or get value back, once you are in the last year of your contract

 

Now if they extend Sammy, he is absolutely tradable this year, but if you wait again until this time next year, he will not be...

 

jc

[T master]

I think a lot may depend on his health this year , if he can stay healthy with the familiarity he has developed with Tyrod he should be able to put up good numbers.

 

If he does his worth to both the Bills & other teams will climb & a trade or a new contract could be in his future .

 

I think McDermott has to be shown that he can stay healthy before he makes a decision to keep him especially after his last 2 seasons with his injuries.

[The Frankish Reich]

I guess now the final grade is in on that best-ever 2014 WR draft class:

 

Overal pick #4, Sammy - 5th year will be declined: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/04/28/bills-now-not-expected-to-pick-up-sammy-watkins-option/

 

Overall pick #7, Evans - option picked up: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/04/17/buccaneers-pick-up-mike-evans-fifth-year-option/

 

Overall pick #12, Beckham - option picked up: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000802050/article/giants-to-exercise-5thyear-option-on-odell-beckham

 

Overall pick #20, Cooks - option picked up: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000804579/article/patriots-pick-up-brandin-cooks-fifthyear-option- and that happened after the Pats gave up their 1st round pick for him

 

Overall pick # 28, Benjamin - option picked up: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000795044/article/panthers-to-pick-up-kelvin-benjamins-fifthyear-option

 

 

Really, two huge misses on drafting EJ and then trading up for Watkins will define Whaley's tenure for a long time ...

Edited May 1, 2017 by The Frankish Reich

[Adam727]

I think it's a no brainer to pick up his 5th year option. That gives us this year to see how he recovers from injury and two years (using franchise tag) after that to get a long-term contract done. If the Bills decide not to pick up the 5th year option I would definitely trade him mid-season for anything we can get. (Hopefully a 1st rounder if he starts the season well and some playoff team has a #1 WR get injured early. But I'd take a 2nd or a 3rd)

 

I can't imagine we'd get much in a tag & trade scenario next year with Sammy playing on a 1 yr / $15+mil deal. And I'd rather get a pick than see him walk for nothing like what happened with Gilmore.

[DefenseWins]

Not picking up the option doesn't mean the plan is to let him go.

 

Thanks... Why do some people make picking up or declining to pick up the 5th year OPTION as meaning that he will automatically be leaving? He is still under contract and the Bills can still tag him next year, if necessary, or more likely sign him long term assuming he plays a full season for a change... It's not like he is being cut...

[The Frankish Reich]

 

Thanks... Why do some people make picking up or declining to pick up the 5th year OPTION as meaning that he will automatically be leaving? He is still under contract and the Bills can still tag him next year, if necessary, or more likely sign him long term assuming he plays a full season for a change... It's not like he is being cut...

No, but not picking up the option when every other 1st round receiver from his class had his option picked up? It does tell you something. In Sammy's case it tells you the team (and probably all teams, or there'd be a Brandin Cooks type trade) has serious concerns about his ability to stay healthy.

[Adam727]

 

Thanks... Why do some people make picking up or declining to pick up the 5th year OPTION as meaning that he will automatically be leaving? He is still under contract and the Bills can still tag him next year, if necessary, or more likely sign him long term assuming he plays a full season for a change... It's not like he is being cut...

 

I agree that not picking up the 5th year option is not the same as cutting him. And it is possible that he gets franchise tagged and ultimately re-signed. But I think if the Bills don't pick up his 5th year option it's unlikely a long-term deal gets done.

 

This is all just speculation on my part but I don't get the feeling Sammy is entirely happy here. (Whether it's related to the offense he's playing in & not getting enough touches, the fan reaction he got on twitter last year, or something else entirely I don't know) I doubt screwing around with his 5th year option will help him want to stay here.

 

Setting that aside, if we don't pick up the option and he has an amazing year he's probably going to want to be paid like one of the top WRs in the NFL. I doubt the Bills are going to pay that kind of money on a long-term deal in a year from now if they are concerned about him enough today that they aren't willing to pay him $13mil next year. If he has a bad or average year (or gets injured again) then I really don't see the Bills paying what it will likely take to keep him and again I see a scenario where he's going to want more than the Bills are going to pay. (like what just happened with Gilmore)

 

If we pick up the 5th year option, we have leverage to begin contract negotiations next year (Bills will be able to own his rights for the next 2-3 years) If we decline the option, we'll have next to no leverage when we're trying to sign him long-term after we franchise tag him (if we franchise tag him) and I think it becomes much more likely he winds up somewhere else on a long-term deal. If the Bills see him as a long-term part of this franchise it makes no sense to give up that much leverage just to avoid possibly having to pay him $13mil next year. I understand the injury argument but if they really want to keep him the risk/reward is tilted HEAVILY in favor of picking the option up. More than likely, if the option is not picked up it's because Mcdermott isn't sold on him as our #1 WR of the future.

 

(Again all just my opinion)

[John from Riverside]

This is just sad

 

1. He is coming off a Jones Fracture injury why do you think you would get anything CLOSE to what we paid for him.

2. The investment we made to pick him it makes NO SENSE to trade him......he is a huge part of our offense

3. Why do people not understand that they just want to make sure the foot heals based on the time he missed last year before making a major committeement......and that we will have more then enough cap room to tag him and then work out a deal

 

Sammy Watkins is not going anywhere....and the selection of Zay Jones does not change that

[The Frankish Reich]

This is just sad

 

1. He is coming off a Jones Fracture injury why do you think you would get anything CLOSE to what we paid for him.

2. The investment we made to pick him it makes NO SENSE to trade him......he is a huge part of our offense

3. Why do people not understand that they just want to make sure the foot heals based on the time he missed last year before making a major committeement......and that we will have more then enough cap room to tag him and then work out a deal

 

Sammy Watkins is not going anywhere....and the selection of Zay Jones does not change that

You mean this year? If so, I agree. His trade value is really low (4th rounder?). You mean next year? Gotta disagree with that. I don't think they'll want to pay him essentially top 5 WR salary in what looks to be a rebuilding year.

[Tipster19]

I went back and checked our drafts since 2010. Whaley was under Nix if I'm not mistaken from 2010-2013. In those 4 drafts the Bills chose 35 players, only 2 (Darius & Cordy) are still on the roster. Under Whaley's watch in the 2014-2016 drafts the Bills chose 22 players, 17 are still technically on the roster. Here are the remaining 17 from those drafts:

 

2014

 

1st rd/#4 Sammy

2nd rd/#44 Kouandjio

3rd rd/#73 Preston Brown

7th rd/#237 Seantrel Henderson

 

We retained our 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 7th rd picks out of that draft.

 

2015

 

2nd rd/#50 Ronald Darby

3rd rd/#81 John Miller

7th rd/#234 Dez Lewis

 

We retained our 2nd, 3rd and 7th rd picks out of that draft.

 

2016

 

1st rd/#19 Shaq Lawson

2nd rd/#41 Reggie Ragland

3rd rd/#80 Adolphus Washington

*4th rd/#139 Cardale Jones

5th rd/#156 Jonathan Williams

*6th rd/#192 Kolby Listenbee

6th rd/#218 Kevon Seymour

 

Technically we still currently have all these players on the roster. *Compensatory picks.

 

There you have it, as much if not more, this is one of our biggest failures if not the biggest problem is our "astute" drafting.

The Bills have 19 out of 57 players in 7 drafts, 33%! That is inflated because the real disturbing part is how many of 7 players in last year's draft are we going to retain??!

[Boatdrinks]

"Better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late." Branch Rickey. And we're a year too late on Sammy. With one year on his contract and iffy health, he'd probably get you a 4th rounder or so. Last year this time? 1st rounder wouldn't have been out of the question.

He's still young. Let's say he stays healthy and puts up numbers this year. Then he's got the value again. That said, I wouldn't trade him. He's the most talented WR the Bills have had in a long time and I still think it's too early to throw him out.

[billspro]

Honestly Julio Jones went through a similar problem early in his career. And yes, Sammy is as talented as Jones. It would be silly to trade him. This will probably be the lowest value he will have in his entire career. Don't sell your stocks when they are low.

[CanadianFan]

I went back and checked our drafts since 2010. Whaley was under Nix if I'm not mistaken from 2010-2013. In those 4 drafts the Bills chose 35 players, only 2 (Darius & Cordy) are still on the roster. Under Whaley's watch in the 2014-2016 drafts the Bills chose 22 players, 17 are still technically on the roster. Here are the remaining 17 from those drafts:

 

 

This is plagiarism. Buffalo Dung Beetle News already did that "study". Let's just look at the four years Doug is responsible for - 2013-2016.

[Nick the Greek]

Yes.. sell low. Who gonna want this guy, or give more than a forth round pick. He played what.. 5 games this past year. I'm sure teams will be lining up around the block for a shot to trad for Sammy.

[BobbyC81]

I went back and checked our drafts since 2010. Whaley was under Nix if I'm not mistaken from 2010-2013. In those 4 drafts the Bills chose 35 players, only 2 (Darius & Cordy) are still on the roster. Under Whaley's watch in the 2014-2016 drafts the Bills chose 22 players, 17 are still technically on the roster. Here are the remaining 17 from those drafts:

 

2014

 

1st rd/#4 Sammy

2nd rd/#44 Kouandjio

3rd rd/#73 Preston Brown

7th rd/#237 Seantrel Henderson

 

We retained our 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 7th rd picks out of that draft.

 

2015

 

2nd rd/#50 Ronald Darby

3rd rd/#81 John Miller

7th rd/#234 Dez Lewis

 

We retained our 2nd, 3rd and 7th rd picks out of that draft.

 

2016

 

1st rd/#19 Shaq Lawson

2nd rd/#41 Reggie Ragland

3rd rd/#80 Adolphus Washington

*4th rd/#139 Cardale Jones

5th rd/#156 Jonathan Williams

*6th rd/#192 Kolby Listenbee

6th rd/#218 Kevon Seymour

 

Technically we still currently have all these players on the roster. *Compensatory picks.

 

There you have it, as much if not more, this is one of our biggest failures if not the biggest problem is our "astute" drafting.

The Bills have 19 out of 57 players in 7 drafts, 33%! That is inflated because the real disturbing part is how many of 7 players in last year's draft are we going to retain??!

 

This new math perplexes me. 4 + 3 + 7 = 17? In "old math" it was 14.

[Webster Guy]

 

Please explain bolded as it makes zero sense to me. We have way to much invested in him to let walk. Selling at a all time low due to his broken foot will make this franchise look even more stupid. CMON guys.....

 

depends on his health which means any trade would likely be conditional. in other words, we trade for a 3rd rounder or something, but if he stays relatively healthy and puts up numbers we get a 1st, if he doesn't, well we get very little if he plays for us or anyone else.

 

the smart business mind gives zero consideration to how much we gave up to get the guy, that's a sunk cost and already paid. the focus should be on how to get the most value for him, and what our options are with trades, extensions, tagging him next year, etc.

 

i personally feel attached to Sammy and love watching him play--would be crushed to see him elsewhere. but a good GM might be able to find a team that is making a run and really needs an elite WR and pull the trigger on a trade.

 

Man he is SO dominant when he's healthy though. Uncoverable.