Prospect Watch: Mitch Trubisky QB, UNC

[BillsFan17]

I'm starting to lean towards this being a huge smokescreen that I'd put money on us not taking a QB at 10

[Just Joshin']

Like many of the drafts from past years, i feel like ONE of these QB's from this class is bound to be a good solid player. Our Bills need to hit on it one of these years, why not this year?

A pretty safe bet. The trick is which one? If 1/5 is a hit, the miss rate is 80%.

 

This is why rational people can disagree on drafting a QB vs an impact player at another position.

[jeffismagic]

A pretty safe bet. The trick is which one? If 1/5 is a hit, the miss rate is 80%.

 

This is why rational people can disagree on drafting a QB vs an impact player at another position.

 

The 2014 draft was considered weak. Let's take a look:

 

Blake Bortles, Marginal Starter

Johnny Manziel, Total Bust

Teddy Bridgewater, Looked like he could be decent starter before injury

Derek Carr, Franchise QB

Jimmy Garrapolo, Played well in limited time, looks like would be decent starter with more possible

 

Those are the top 5. Your 80% fail rate looks off if 2017 is similar.

[Domdab99]

Trubisky. Seriously?

 

He's a guy who has NEVER played under center. Not even in high school. He's got 13 starts. Does he have potential? Hell yeah. He'd be a great 3rd round pick up. But at #10?? Are you guys high? The Bills need a lot of help. They need instant starters. LB/S/WR/CB I'd even take a Jonathan Allen.

 

I'd see taking a flyer on Watson...maybe...if Dennison thinks he's a good fit. I wouldn't like it, but I see why that might happen. But Jesus...Trubisky? I just don't see it.

[oldmanfan]

 

The 2014 draft was considered weak. Let's take a look:

 

Blake Bortles, Marginal Starter

Johnny Manziel, Total Bust

Teddy Bridgewater, Looked like he could be decent starter before injury

Derek Carr, Franchise QB

Jimmy Garrapolo, Played well in limited time, looks like would be decent starter with more possible

 

Those are the top 5. Your 80% fail rate looks off if 2017 is similar.

Actually 1 of these 5 has shown he might be the guy. Another way to express 1 in 5 is 20% success. Another way to express that is 80% failure.

[jeffismagic]

Actually 1 of these 5 has shown he might be the guy. Another way to express 1 in 5 is 20% success. Another way to express that is 80% failure.

 

If your standard is finding a franchise QB. You can't say Jimmy G is a failure yet though. Most teams don't consider a QB pick a bust if he is a solid starter.

 

Are we going to use that standard for linebackers and corners as well? If a corner is not a top 5 guy in 2 years is he a failure?

[oldmanfan]

 

If your standard is finding a franchise QB. You can't say Jimmy G is a failure yet though. Most teams don't consider a QB pick a bust if he is a solid starter.

 

Are we going to use that standard for linebackers and corners as well? If a corner is not a top 5 guy in 2 years is he a failure?

Define franchise QB. It's the most trite overused phrase in football.

 

I ten to agree with you. Give me a guy that we know has the job the next 10 years and that gives us a legitimate chance to win every week.

[8-8 Forever?]

i've recently seen a couple of mocks...br comes to mind that has trubisky there at # 10. if you're the gm , what do you do?

imo he'd be the only qb i would use a first round pick on....but...

 

it would be awfully tempting to me to trade down and try to pick up some extra picks, so here's a scenario that i would look at.

 

trade #10 to cleveland for no. #12...for one of their seconds and a 4th. forgive me for not following the value chart, but i could see the browns drooling here.

 

trade #12 to the redskins for #17...for a 3rd,4th and 7th. they need quality receivers in the worst way and they have the picks to spare.

 

with #17 i'm taking a tackle and i like bolles from utah. i know it may be high and he's 25, but i can see a run on olineman from the giants on down through the rest of the 1st. this kid gives us a day one upgrade. he could be our big nasty incognito on the right side.

 

of course at #17, i wouldn't take the phone off the hook in case jerry jones is in love with say a ross...or maybe peppers is still there. they don't have extra picks though, but here i would settle for a high 2018 pick.

 

so at #17, that would be bolles...an extra 2nd, 3rd,4th and 7th. we could really do well in this draft.

 

i don't have a mock,but with 2 2nds and 2 3rds we should be able to get zay jones, a cb, a safety and maybe that dl from vandy.

 

with the cleveland 4th round pick, i take chad kelly and make sure he comes to buffalo.

 

i would use the rest for mainly line depth. i do like marcus maye the fs from florida.

 

the draft can't get here soon enough, im stoked.

 

if we did pick trubisky at #10, i'd be happy with that, but would hope they could move down in the 2nd and at least grab one or 2 more picks.

 

lastly, does anyone know how to retrieve avatars from the old board? i also apologize for the lack of caps button talent.

you're spending way too much time on this. go read a book or go to a movie

[BuffaloRebound]

In what world is Garroppolo considered a failed draft pick? The guy would net a 1st rounder plus more if New England trades him. Bridgewater was on his his way to being a top 10-15 QB before injury. I'd call it a 2.5 out of 5 or 50% hit rate. People act like there's not a significant bust rate at non-QB positions.

[oldmanfan]

In what world is Garroppolo considered a failed draft pick? The guy would net a 1st rounder plus more if New England trades him. Bridgewater was on his his way to being a top 10-15 QB before injury. I'd call it a 2.5 out of 5 or 50% hit rate. People act like there's not a significant bust rate at non-QB positions.

They each get incompletes at best right now. Other positions have success and failures but because you have more guys both available on the team at such positions, and because of a bigger overall pool to choose from, the effect in a team is minimized relative to a QB.

[Maury Ballstein]

Trubisky. Seriously?

 

He's a guy who has NEVER played under center. Not even in high school. He's got 13 starts. Does he have potential? Hell yeah. He'd be a great 3rd round pick up. But at #10?? Are you guys high? The Bills need a lot of help. They need instant starters. LB/S/WR/CB I'd even take a Jonathan Allen.

 

I'd see taking a flyer on Watson...maybe...if Dennison thinks he's a good fit. I wouldn't like it, but I see why that might happen. But Jesus...Trubisky? I just don't see it.

 

High on Trubisky's sweet accuracy. Yep.

[billsredneck1]

you're spending way too much time on this. go read a book or go to a movie

lol! and congrats ....you were post #730....on page 37

Edited April 18, 2017 by billsredneck1

[BillsFan4]

Ok so fans here are smarter than Dennison right? I mean no one here gets paid to scout. No "Expert" in the media is good enough to be a top personnel guy for a team or can't find a gig being one anymore, but hey, they KNOW What QB's are good and not right?

 

I mean hell, if they knew, wouldn't some team or teams pay them a butt load of money to scout for them? I mean QB is THE #1 priority for every team in the NFL.

 

So point being, if the Bills staff, including Dennison who has coached some damn good QB's says "Mitchell is a guy who I can train and will take us very far in my system" Then who the hell is to argue? IF they feel he is the guy, then trade up and get the QB, screw what fans and media say.

So I assume that you'd be fine if it goes the other way then? If Dennison and the Bills staff feel there is Not a QB worth a top 10 pick, let alone trading up for, and pass on a QB in the 1st, you'll be ok with it, right? Because, like you said, who are we to argue...

 

Edit - I found the answer to my own question a couple pages later. I guess the above opinion only applies when it fits his own point of view... lol

 

So again the Bills pass on the most important position in all of football, That would be typical. Where did the mantra at OBD come from to push backups at best out as starters and hope we make the playoffs? I mean God knows we will never make or win a superbowl with TT at the helm.

 

Oh wait, lets wait until next year for the 21st time, oh but with TT we went 7-9 so we are out of reach for a top QB AGAIN.

 

And the wheel keeps on turning...

 

What is the definition of insanity again?

Because that has gotten us to the playoffs so many years since our last appearance right? We have fielded TEAMS that should have been in the playoffs and more, but no QB....just like now

Edited April 18, 2017 by BillsFan4

[Estro]

I've been on the take a QB as high as you want bandwagon ever since the season ended. Tyrod is okay, but we all know the Bills must find a good/great QB if they ever want to experience sustained success. With that in mind I've taken a hard look at the "top" 6 QB's in this years draft. D. Watson, P. Mahomes, M. Tribusky, D. Kizer, D. Webb, N. Peterman. The first guy I took a hard look at was Tribusky because I happened to catch his bowl game vs. Stanford on T.V. & came away pretty impressed. Given the sudden buzz & early 1st round pick chatter I figured I'd highlight my thoughts on him first.

 

After reviewing his game tape vs. Virginia Tech, Duke & NC St. my thoughts on Tribusky completely flipped. I found him to be very unimpressive. Some of the many things that really concerned me:

 

- Avg. to below avg. arm strength. Listen to the pundits on ESPN & NFL Network, where they refuse to say anything neg. about prospects this time of yr. and you're led to believe Tribusky is big and has a really strong arm (can make all the throws "they say). I found the exact opposite to be true. His throws outside the numbers take a long time to get to the WR's and lose velocity. If he has to scramble and throw on the move his ball velocity is especially bad. Accuracy is more important than arm strength, but there's a certain threshold of acceptable vs. unacceptable when it come to arm strength in the NFL and Tribusky's is not comfortably in the acceptable range for me. Watch the VT game if you want to imagine Tribusky throwing at the Ralph on a rainy, windy day. He was an absolute mess in the bad weather. BIG Red Flag!

 

- Deep ball accuracy is poor. To be fair, to Tribusky he has decent accuracy on the shorter throws and a pretty quick release, but the deep ball accuracy is a problem for me. He misses tons of WR's w/ both overthrows and underthrows deep down the field. There were many many instances of his WR's streaking wide open down the sideline for what should eb walk in TD that weren't even completions because Tribusky's arm allowed the defender right back into the play.

 

- My biggest problem with Tribusky is he backpedals in the face of pressure. In order to be a good/great QB in the NFL you must have the innate ability to step up or side step in the face of pressure, find a small space of real estate in the muddies pocket, reset your feet & deliver the ball downfield. This is something I rarely see with Tribusky. He goes backward, often throwing off his back foot totally off balance resulting in bad accuracy and velocity.

 

I've included 3 games (Virginia Tech, NC St. & Duke). If you have a little time to kill and want to get a better feel for Mitch take a look at these 3 videos. Let me know if you come away as unimpressed as I was. He's just a guy, IMO, I don't see anything special & I see very few "Wow" type of throws or plays from him. I saw more "Wow" throws watching 1 half of a Mahomes game than I saw in 5 complete games of Tribusky's. Whatever team takes Mitch will be making a huge mistake, IMO, I just hope it's not the Bills. Just watch these 3 tapes and I think you'll agree this is not an NFL franchise signal caller.

 

VT

 

NC St.

 

Duke

Edited April 18, 2017 by Estro

[Buffalo86]

Why have I not heard of this Mitch Tribusky?

[Gugny]

FINALLY a Trubisky thread!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Johnny Hammersticks]

But pegs personally went to his workout. Buffalo must be looking to trade up to steal him from the Jets.

[The BLUES Brothers]

NFL evaluator Greg Gabriel feels the Bills are very serious about grabbing a QB in Round 1.

 

Certain a QB pick will make a lot of fans happy - Some sportscasters saying they think he (MT) will be a star, but they said "he needs an Aaron Rodgers situation where he can sit and learn the ropes prior to starting"...and then they said - "but if he is picked high - that makes it harder to wait".

[Estro]

He's closer to Trent Edwards than Aaron Rodgers. Just watch some of those throws, he has a very weak arm.

[mead107]

No thanks