Bandit's 2017 QB Evaluations

[thebandit27]

I started with my top 6, and may add more in the future. Feel free to comment as you see fit. Note that they do not appear in the order in which I would rank them.

 

For each player I evaluated, I’m posting video of a game that I felt would serve as a microcosm for both the positives and negatives of his game.

 

DeShaun Watson - Clemson

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6J8-Sw2ULx0

 

Notes (time correlates to comment):

 

(0:00), (0:50) (7:45) gets flat-footed in the pocket, which can cause the ball to sail, but the delivery is tight and compact

(0:40) (4:55) drives the ball into tight windows

(1:10) back-to-back plays where the ball comes out quickly and accurately to his 1^st read

(3:20) (8:25) struggles to consistently diagnose EDGE on zone-read plays

(3:55) consistently willing to take what the defense gives him—this, IMO, is huge, because it sets up the deep shot he takes about 30 seconds later in the video. I don’t hate the INT; I’ve always felt that an INT on a deep throw is tantamount to a punt.

(5:54) I like this throw, but I don’t love it. He sells the action-side roll-out, and does a really nice job of getting his head around and making a timely throw. I wish he’d transfer his weight a bit better to get the ball another foot or two over the top, and I wonder if that ball doesn’t get picked in the NFL.

(7:54) boy does he get the ball out quickly on that blast play; that’s an NFL throw

(9:23) I know he takes a sack here, but I like that he’s willing to hang in the pocket

(10:00) that’s just a truly great run-excellent vision

 

Summary: there’s a lot to like about his physical skills. He’s a QB that can run rather than an athlete playing QB. I think NFL GMs are going to have some pause about how his ability to go through progressions will develop, and that may hurt him some. I’d like to think that lower-body mechanical issues are correctable, but we’ve seen that issue played out before. I am giving him a top-25 grade because of positional value, but I think he needs some work before he’ll be able to maximize his considerable physical talents.

 

Patrick Mahomes - Texas Tech

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_b7SYXw-zU

 

Notes (time correlates to comment):

 

(0:20) constantly throws from an unstable platform, causing occasional accuracy issues

(0:41) likes to unload quickly, but willing to go through progressions to find the open man

(2:18) now this is Mahomes in a nutshell. He comes off his 1^st read, buys time, bails out of the pocket, retreats, escapes with his excellent mobility, keeps his eyes downfield, and uses his above-average arm strength to launch a rocket to the open man.

(4:06) this is a misfire, but I love that he stays on the balls of his feet on this play; it shows me that he can be taught to correct his footwork.

(4:33) another Mahomes special. Bails out the back of the pocket, retreats, and then throws an incredible strike across his body while on the run. You can’t teach that kind of talent.

(5:18) this ball is out in less than 2 seconds, and it’s in stride.

(8:33) two things I like about this: he steps into the pocket before he bails, and again, the accuracy on the run

(8:46) the not-so-good about him: those happy feet cause 2 consecutive misses that could’ve been big plays. Calm those feet son!

(12:28) this makes me happy: climb the pocket and deliver.

 

Summary: I deliberately picked this game because it was his worst of the year, and I wanted to see if the things that I like about him popped off the tape anyway. They did. He has plenty of arm, great athleticism, and a unique ability to extend the play. He isn’t simply a broken-play QB, as he does look to get the ball out quickly whenever he can. As with most college QBs nowadays, he’s going to need to prove that he can go through progressions consistently, but his pre-snap reads seem to be very advanced. If he can calm his footwork, and grow his tendency to climb to safety instead of bailing (a la Russell Wilson), I think he’s a starter in this league. To me, that’s worth a 1^st round pick.

DeShone Kizer - Notre Dame

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7MlOhU10-s

 

Notes (time correlates to comment):

 

(first 3 plays) ball comes out quickly and with good zip

(0:50) (4:49) will rush his delivery at times, causing the ball to come out low

(1:13) great job scanning the field and coming back to early read

(3:00) climbs to safety and calmly sets his feet prior to the throw

(3:30) poor ball placement on back-to-back end zone throws

(4:03) big-time throw on the dig route-puts the ball in the only place the WR can get it

(5:30) money on the slant; great ball placement

(8:27) it’s 4^th and inches…if your QB can’t take a snap under center, that’s a problem.

(8:40) lack of deep shots has the defense creeping up; Kizer isn’t backing them off at all

 

 

Summary: I’ve seen folks like Daniel Jeremiah, who I really respect, rate Kizer as their #1 QB. I’m not there. He does some critical things really well: his timing passes are excellent, his ability to scan the field is solid, and he’s got good power in his throws. There are also some real red flags for me in that he can’t seem to take a snap from under center, and his accuracy seems to drop precipitously beyond 20 yards. Moreover, I don’t like that he seems to go long stretches without challenging the deep secondary, and he also doesn’t appear to work the boundary down the field. Right now, he’s a R2 guy for me, but I think there will be a team that drools over his measurables enough to take him much higher than that.

 

Mitch Trubisky - UNC

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOczBf5dLEA

 

Notes (time correlates to comment):

 

(0:33) after 4 consecutive 1-read throws, it would’ve been nice to see him hold the ball for a second and challenge the single coverage over the middle.

(0:41) see above; lesson learned

(0:51) misplaces the deep ball-if that throw is inside it’s a TD

(1:18) now this is good; stays tall on the balls of his feet in the pocket and delivers a perfect deep strike-not his fault it’s dropped

(1:39) nice ball fake

(1:45) another nice throw on the deep fade

(2:29) now this is the right time to throw laterally-comes off his first read and finds the dump off for some easy yards

(3:13) makes up for missing the wide open target in the MOF by coming back to the opposite boundary for a 1^st down throw

(4:18) a bit late on the drag route, but throw is perfectly placed

(4:32) picks the wrong deep guy; makes up for it with a perfect read on the next play

(4:49) this is a disgraceful play; I have nothing else to say about it

(5:12) does well by staying tall and active in the pocket, but waits too long and bails instead of taking the check-down a full second earlier

(6:09) his base looks really wide here; makes me wonder if he’s lacking some arm strength and needs to exaggerate his weight transfer to power the ball on the boundary throws

 

Summary: I like that everything seems to happen fast with Trubisky. I also like that he looks like he learns from his mistakes. He misses some key reads, particularly in the deep middle, and he has a tendency to float some balls to the boundary that he should be driving. I’d like to see his drop-back mechanics before I’d be really comfortable forecasting his ability to play under center in the NFL. Overall, I’ll give him a 1^st round grade, mostly because I feel like he’s the closest thing to an early starter that this draft has to offer. I think he’d benefit most from a timing-based offense, and I think he’ll need some big targets that can go up and get the 50/50 balls he likes to throw.

 

Davis Webb - Cal

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfKNMJGU36A

 

Notes (time correlates to comment):

 

(0:09) climbs into the pocket without hesitation

(0:21) doesn’t set his feet and sails the deep ball into double coverage

(0:39) maintains accuracy despite throwing off back foot

(0:59) good signs here-stands tall and stays on the balls of his feet, with a good stride, and delivers on the 3-route while pocket collapses

(1:17) great awareness to break the pocket and keep his eyes up; nice TD throw on the run

(1:51) drives nicely from the top of his drop-back and shows beautiful touch on the deep ball

(2:32) should’ve held this ball longer and waited for something else to develop; almost got his RB killed

(2:41) that’s a very nice off-balance throw on the option route, which he follows up by dropping a deep fade into the bucket with Sidney Jones in coverage

(3:11) have to anticipate and make that throw sooner

(3:30) great touch on the blast throw

(4:43) this has to be the 4^th or 5^th time he’s had a miscommunication with a WR; not good

(5:30) this gets a mention for sheer toughness; anyone that’s willing to take that shot to make a short throw when you’re down 30 points is tough enough for me

(6:22) another really nice deep fade throw

 

Summary: I had to pick the Washington game to see how well Webb held up against what basically amounts to an NFL secondary (Jones/King/Baker). He really held his own for a while, but as often happens to young QBs, he started forcing throws and getting into trouble. I like the mechanics and touch on his deep throws, but I don’t see a lot of velocity on either the inward-breaking or boundary throws. He probably needs to play in a timing-based offense, but I see value on day 2 for a team that can surround him with weapons.

 

Nathan Peterman - Pitt

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6thWRVxAUSc

 

Notes (time correlates to comment):

 

(0:12) first, I like that he can take a snap from under center; thems are bonus points

(0:19) good job scanning the field and finding the leak

(0:36) I don’t care if this is a massive hold, he does a nice job of scrambling here

(1:08) holds the ball just long enough to let his man come open; gutsy

(1:25) accurate throw off his back foot while under duress

(1:38) good velocity over the middle

(1:56) everything but the throw is solid here-way too much on that one…the next 2 throws, however, are money, and come off his back foot again. Not sure he gets away with that at the next level, but impressive nonetheless

(3:45) sometimes you need to know when NOT to make a throw; this would be one of those times

(4:11) right idea to step into the pocket; need to protect the ball or make the throw sooner

(5:05) I like that he climbs the pocket, but you’ve got an offside call here; take a shot

 

Summary: I was much more impressed with Peterman than I expected. He’s willing to hold the ball and throw 50/50 passes, which tells me that he’s not afraid to make mistakes. Sometimes, however, his awareness fails him both in the pocket and down the field. His unbalanced footwork will cause his intermediate throws to sail on him from time to time as well. I’m giving him a R2 grade based on the tools.

Edited February 8, 2017 by thebandit27

[LeGOATski]

Awesome, man. Great work.

 

I feel like everyone's trying to force Trubisky into the first round. He's much too inconsistent for me. Solid Day 2 prospect. If they take anyone in the first, it should be a trade back and Watson, Mahomes, or Peterman, IMO.

 

I don't think they should draft a QB this year, though.

Edited February 8, 2017 by LeGOATski

[Mark80]

Watson will be a successful NFL franchise QB. Mark it down.

Edited February 8, 2017 by Mark80

[Lofton80]

I think with better coaching on an offense that features a balanced attack, Kizer would be a great add. He played against a schedule that featured 14 bowl teams in 2 years and put up good numbers. He can make all the throws.

 

 

DeShone Kizer - Notre Dame

 

Notes (time correlates to comment):

 

(first 3 plays) ball comes out quickly and with good zip

(0:50) (4:49) will rush his delivery at times, causing the ball to come out low

(1:13) great job scanning the field and coming back to early read

(3:00) climbs to safety and calmly sets his feet prior to the throw

(3:30) poor ball placement on back-to-back end zone throws

(4:03) big-time throw on the dig route-puts the ball in the only place the WR can get it

(5:30) money on the slant; great ball placement

(8:27) it’s 4^th and inches…if your QB can’t take a snap under center, that’s a problem.

(8:40) lack of deep shots has the defense creeping up; Kizer isn’t backing them off at all

 

 

Summary: I’ve seen folks like Daniel Jeremiah, who I really respect, rate Kizer as their #1 QB. I’m not there. He does some critical things really well: his timing passes are excellent, his ability to scan the field is solid, and he’s got good power in his throws. There are also some real red flags for me in that he can’t seem to take a snap from under center, and his accuracy seems to drop precipitously beyond 20 yards. Moreover, I don’t like that he seems to go long stretches without challenging the deep secondary, and he also doesn’t appear to work the boundary down the field. Right now, he’s a R2 guy for me, but I think there will be a team that drools over his measurables enough to take him much higher than that.

[Wayne Cubed]

Great work Bandit, as usual.

[GunnerBill]

Yea great work Bandit. I think on everyone other than Mahomes (who you like much more than I) there is a fair degree of consensus between what we see.

 

EDIT: and I'm not even sure we see Mahomes that differently I think you see the same flaws I just worry about their long term impact on his chances of success than you.

Edited February 8, 2017 by GunnerBill

[Kirby Jackson]

Good stuff as always Bandit.

[FireChan]

Excellent work.

[BarleyNY]

Thanks for sharing your hard work, bandit!

[JohnC]

Great work Bandit. I'm hoping that we come out of this draft with a good qb prospect. Odds are that we won't. We will instead come up with a player who will give us more immediate help. That will make me very disappointed.

[Bad Things]

Cheers for that, Bandit!

[Mike in Horseheads]

Thanks Bandit! Chad Kelly and Gunner Kiel call foul LOL

[Marty McFly]

Nice Work Bandit!

If you had to rank them what is your order?

If you were at OBD who would you be pushing on Whaley and in what trad down, trade up, scenario?

 

I started with my top 6, and may add more in the future. Feel free to comment as you see fit. Note that they do not appear in the order in which I would rank them.

 

For each player I evaluated, I’m posting video of a game that I felt would serve as a microcosm for both the positives and negatives of his game.

[Maury Ballstein]

Thanks Bandit! Chad Kelly and Gunner Kiel call foul LOL

If we whiff on Trubisky/Mahomes/Watson. Kelly can be the new Cardale.

[BADOLBILZ]

Thanks Bandit.

 

It's not a highly regarded class but there is some serious physical talent at the top of this QB class......exceptional in that regard, really.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

I started with my top 6, and may add more in the future. Feel free to comment as you see fit. Note that they do not appear in the order in which I would rank them.

 

For each player I evaluated, I’m posting video of a game that I felt would serve as a microcosm for both the positives and negatives of his game.

 

DeShaun Watson - Clemson

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6J8-Sw2ULx0

 

Notes (time correlates to comment):

 

(0:00), (0:50) (7:45) gets flat-footed in the pocket, which can cause the ball to sail, but the delivery is tight and compact

(0:40) (4:55) drives the ball into tight windows

(1:10) back-to-back plays where the ball comes out quickly and accurately to his 1^st read

(3:20) (8:25) struggles to consistently diagnose EDGE on zone-read plays

(3:55) consistently willing to take what the defense gives him—this, IMO, is huge, because it sets up the deep shot he takes about 30 seconds later in the video. I don’t hate the INT; I’ve always felt that an INT on a deep throw is tantamount to a punt.

(5:54) I like this throw, but I don’t love it. He sells the action-side roll-out, and does a really nice job of getting his head around and making a timely throw. I wish he’d transfer his weight a bit better to get the ball another foot or two over the top, and I wonder if that ball doesn’t get picked in the NFL.

(7:54) boy does he get the ball out quickly on that blast play; that’s an NFL throw

(9:23) I know he takes a sack here, but I like that he’s willing to hang in the pocket

(10:00) that’s just a truly great run-excellent vision

 

Summary: there’s a lot to like about his physical skills. He’s a QB that can run rather than an athlete playing QB. I think NFL GMs are going to have some pause about how his ability to go through progressions will develop, and that may hurt him some. I’d like to think that lower-body mechanical issues are correctable, but we’ve seen that issue played out before. I am giving him a top-25 grade because of positional value, but I think he needs some work before he’ll be able to maximize his considerable physical talents.

 

Patrick Mahomes - Texas Tech

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_b7SYXw-zU

 

Notes (time correlates to comment):

 

(0:20) constantly throws from an unstable platform, causing occasional accuracy issues

(0:41) likes to unload quickly, but willing to go through progressions to find the open man

(2:18) now this is Mahomes in a nutshell. He comes off his 1^st read, buys time, bails out of the pocket, retreats, escapes with his excellent mobility, keeps his eyes downfield, and uses his above-average arm strength to launch a rocket to the open man.

(4:06) this is a misfire, but I love that he stays on the balls of his feet on this play; it shows me that he can be taught to correct his footwork.

(4:33) another Mahomes special. Bails out the back of the pocket, retreats, and then throws an incredible strike across his body while on the run. You can’t teach that kind of talent.

(5:18) this ball is out in less than 2 seconds, and it’s in stride.

(8:33) two things I like about this: he steps into the pocket before he bails, and again, the accuracy on the run

(8:46) the not-so-good about him: those happy feet cause 2 consecutive misses that could’ve been big plays. Calm those feet son!

(12:28) this makes me happy: climb the pocket and deliver.

 

Summary: I deliberately picked this game because it was his worst of the year, and I wanted to see if the things that I like about him popped off the tape anyway. They did. He has plenty of arm, great athleticism, and a unique ability to extend the play. He isn’t simply a broken-play QB, as he does look to get the ball out quickly whenever he can. As with most college QBs nowadays, he’s going to need to prove that he can go through progressions consistently, but his pre-snap reads seem to be very advanced. If he can calm his footwork, and grow his tendency to climb to safety instead of bailing (a la Russell Wilson), I think he’s a starter in this league. To me, that’s worth a 1^st round pick.

DeShone Kizer - Notre Dame

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7MlOhU10-s

 

Notes (time correlates to comment):

 

(first 3 plays) ball comes out quickly and with good zip

(0:50) (4:49) will rush his delivery at times, causing the ball to come out low

(1:13) great job scanning the field and coming back to early read

(3:00) climbs to safety and calmly sets his feet prior to the throw

(3:30) poor ball placement on back-to-back end zone throws

(4:03) big-time throw on the dig route-puts the ball in the only place the WR can get it

(5:30) money on the slant; great ball placement

(8:27) it’s 4^th and inches…if your QB can’t take a snap under center, that’s a problem.

(8:40) lack of deep shots has the defense creeping up; Kizer isn’t backing them off at all

 

 

Summary: I’ve seen folks like Daniel Jeremiah, who I really respect, rate Kizer as their #1 QB. I’m not there. He does some critical things really well: his timing passes are excellent, his ability to scan the field is solid, and he’s got good power in his throws. There are also some real red flags for me in that he can’t seem to take a snap from under center, and his accuracy seems to drop precipitously beyond 20 yards. Moreover, I don’t like that he seems to go long stretches without challenging the deep secondary, and he also doesn’t appear to work the boundary down the field. Right now, he’s a R2 guy for me, but I think there will be a team that drools over his measurables enough to take him much higher than that.

 

Mitch Trubisky - UNC

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOczBf5dLEA

 

Notes (time correlates to comment):

 

(0:33) after 4 consecutive 1-read throws, it would’ve been nice to see him hold the ball for a second and challenge the single coverage over the middle.

(0:41) see above; lesson learned

(0:51) misplaces the deep ball-if that throw is inside it’s a TD

(1:18) now this is good; stays tall on the balls of his feet in the pocket and delivers a perfect deep strike-not his fault it’s dropped

(1:39) nice ball fake

(1:45) another nice throw on the deep fade

(2:29) now this is the right time to throw laterally-comes off his first read and finds the dump off for some easy yards

(3:13) makes up for missing the wide open target in the MOF by coming back to the opposite boundary for a 1^st down throw

(4:18) a bit late on the drag route, but throw is perfectly placed

(4:32) picks the wrong deep guy; makes up for it with a perfect read on the next play

(4:49) this is a disgraceful play; I have nothing else to say about it

(5:12) does well by staying tall and active in the pocket, but waits too long and bails instead of taking the check-down a full second earlier

(6:09) his base looks really wide here; makes me wonder if he’s lacking some arm strength and needs to exaggerate his weight transfer to power the ball on the boundary throws

 

Summary: I like that everything seems to happen fast with Trubisky. I also like that he looks like he learns from his mistakes. He misses some key reads, particularly in the deep middle, and he has a tendency to float some balls to the boundary that he should be driving. I’d like to see his drop-back mechanics before I’d be really comfortable forecasting his ability to play under center in the NFL. Overall, I’ll give him a 1^st round grade, mostly because I feel like he’s the closest thing to an early starter that this draft has to offer. I think he’d benefit most from a timing-based offense, and I think he’ll need some big targets that can go up and get the 50/50 balls he likes to throw.

 

Davis Webb - Cal

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfKNMJGU36A

 

Notes (time correlates to comment):

 

(0:09) climbs into the pocket without hesitation

(0:21) doesn’t set his feet and sails the deep ball into double coverage

(0:39) maintains accuracy despite throwing off back foot

(0:59) good signs here-stands tall and stays on the balls of his feet, with a good stride, and delivers on the 3-route while pocket collapses

(1:17) great awareness to break the pocket and keep his eyes up; nice TD throw on the run

(1:51) drives nicely from the top of his drop-back and shows beautiful touch on the deep ball

(2:32) should’ve held this ball longer and waited for something else to develop; almost got his RB killed

(2:41) that’s a very nice off-balance throw on the option route, which he follows up by dropping a deep fade into the bucket with Sidney Jones in coverage

(3:11) have to anticipate and make that throw sooner

(3:30) great touch on the blast throw

(4:43) this has to be the 4^th or 5^th time he’s had a miscommunication with a WR; not good

(5:30) this gets a mention for sheer toughness; anyone that’s willing to take that shot to make a short throw when you’re down 30 points is tough enough for me

(6:22) another really nice deep fade throw

 

Summary: I had to pick the Washington game to see how well Webb held up against what basically amounts to an NFL secondary (Jones/King/Baker). He really held his own for a while, but as often happens to young QBs, he started forcing throws and getting into trouble. I like the mechanics and touch on his deep throws, but I don’t see a lot of velocity on either the inward-breaking or boundary throws. He probably needs to play in a timing-based offense, but I see value on day 2 for a team that can surround him with weapons.

 

Nathan Peterman - Pitt

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6thWRVxAUSc

 

Notes (time correlates to comment):

 

(0:12) first, I like that he can take a snap from under center; thems are bonus points

(0:19) good job scanning the field and finding the leak

(0:36) I don’t care if this is a massive hold, he does a nice job of scrambling here

(1:08) holds the ball just long enough to let his man come open; gutsy

(1:25) accurate throw off his back foot while under duress

(1:38) good velocity over the middle

(1:56) everything but the throw is solid here-way too much on that one…the next 2 throws, however, are money, and come off his back foot again. Not sure he gets away with that at the next level, but impressive nonetheless

(3:45) sometimes you need to know when NOT to make a throw; this would be one of those times

(4:11) right idea to step into the pocket; need to protect the ball or make the throw sooner

(5:05) I like that he climbs the pocket, but you’ve got an offside call here; take a shot

 

Summary: I was much more impressed with Peterman than I expected. He’s willing to hold the ball and throw 50/50 passes, which tells me that he’s not afraid to make mistakes. Sometimes, however, his awareness fails him both in the pocket and down the field. His unbalanced footwork will cause his intermediate throws to sail on him from time to time as well. I’m giving him a R2 grade based on the tools.

 

C'mon no Kelly?!

 

don't see the Peterman love at all.

Edited February 9, 2017 by Buffalo Barbarian

[ice2145]

Nice Bandit, I think the Bills have found their new scout.

[Chandler#81]

Well scripted review -even an aire of congeniality. Ergo, who are you and what have you done with Bandit??

 

Thanks, very informative. Next question; which QB appears to best fit what Dennison expects to formulate?

[PaattMaann]

Good work Bandit, gracias.

 

Best outcome of this draft, for me, regardless of what we do with TT....is take whatever impact / play maker we see fit in round 1 (preferably a WR or OJ Howard) and then draft Mahomes in round 2. I just dont think he lasts until then, but as I said...ideal situation.

[thebandit27]

Nice Work Bandit!

If you had to rank them what is your order?

 

If you were at OBD who would you be pushing on Whaley and in what trad down, trade up, scenario?

 

 

Right now, I rank them 1) Trubiksy 2) Mahomes, 3) Watson 4) Kizer 5) Webb 6) Peterman

 

I also like a few later-round guys like Antonio Pipkin, but I haven't written enough notes to do a thorough evaluation on him.

 

Thanks Bandit.

 

It's not a highly regarded class but there is some serious physical talent at the top of this QB class......exceptional in that regard, really.

 

Good call--it's going to be very interesting as a case study for can-raw-skills-be-coached-into-QB-performance?

 

 

C'mon no Kelly?!

 

don't see the Peterman love at all.

 

He's not in my top cut. I'll put him on the list to write-up if I end up coming back for a 2nd round of QB analysis.

 

Well scripted review -even an aire of congeniality. Ergo, who are you and what have you done with Bandit??

 

Thanks, very informative. Next question; which QB appears to best fit what Dennison expects to formulate?

 

I did this after I ate dinner and got my kids to bed...much different disposition.

 

As to Dennison, it really depends on how much he wants to remake the offense. If he is married to the WCO, then a guy like Webb or Trubisky--who can deliver the ball quickly and accurately on the short patterns--would be a really good fit.

 

If they plan to stick close to the type of movement-based scheme that incorporates zone-read looks, then either Watson or Mahomes are the guys.

 

Good work Bandit, gracias.

 

Best outcome of this draft, for me, regardless of what we do with TT....is take whatever impact / play maker we see fit in round 1 (preferably a WR or OJ Howard) and then draft Mahomes in round 2. I just dont think he lasts until then, but as I said...ideal situation.

 

I'm struggling to picture Mahomes dropping to the mid-40s. If they truly love one of the QBs when they're on the clock at 10, they need to go with him. If they feel good-but-not-great, then this might be a good year to re-coup a few extra picks a la the EJ trade. but I would rather they stay at 10 and take an impact player.