The Trump Economy

[Deranged Rhino]

1 hour ago, meazza said:

 

Care to post the graph of interest rate increases in Canada in the last year? Could it be that the economy was doing spectacularly well or is everything a conspiracy theory by some shadowy people pulling strings from their yachts ?

 

I hope you know that assface comment was not directed towards you at all Meaza. Or your post. It was directed to the actual assface posting above mine

[meazza]

5 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

I hope you know that assface comment was not directed towards you at all Meaza. Or your post. It was directed to the actual assface posting above mine

 

I’m aware but I still don’t think you should have posted that graph as if it actually tells a story. 

[BeginnersMind]

6 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

I hope you know that assface comment was not directed towards you at all Meaza. Or your post. It was directed to the actual assface posting above mine

 

$$ thanks bro. 

 

We are checking the payroll at the Deep State  HQ (Clinton Library sub-basement 17, get it?) because Spielberg is convinced you are one of us. Our real enemies have credibility but you make us look great. “He has to be one of us. No one could believe this stuff.”

 

Hows the Q stuff working? Is this the week? Being off by 9-10 weeks of “next week” Is rough for you and the guys. But maybe next week is the week. 

Edited December 27, 2018 by BeginnersMind

[Deranged Rhino]

4 hours ago, meazza said:

 

I’m aware but I still don’t think you should have posted that graph as if it actually tells a story. 

 

Just wanted to be sure.  

 

 

[Tiberius]

 

Quote

 

As the trade war escalated between the United States and China this spring, American cherry exporters in Washington state unexpectedly found their customs processing slowed at the Chinese border.

Unannounced, increased inspections began in late May and in early June. The extra time the inspections took backed up shipments into mainland China, leading to some shipments rotting on the docks and forcing exporters to divert their produce so it could be sold before it spoiled.

Then, almost as suddenly as they were put in place, the increased inspections stopped, said Keith Hu, director of international operations at the Northwest Cherry Growers. Disparate American goods such as oranges, logs, calf skins and even Lincoln vehicles have encountered heightened customs reviews at Chinese ports this year. Multinational companies already accustomed to the sometimes difficult environment have reported an uptick in the number of hurdles they must jump through in order to do business in the increasingly lucrative market.

 

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/27/china-us-business-1074184

[Deranged Rhino]

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2018/12/ending_independent_federal_agencies.html#.XCbGYGeoxjA.twitter

 

 

[TPS]

10 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2018/12/ending_independent_federal_agencies.html#.XCbGYGeoxjA.twitter

 

 

Thanks, I also enjoyed his "we cannot be great without god" analysis/article too....

[Buffalo_Gal]

Sometimes I go through the tweet responses and block the stupid responders. They all inevitably have 36 followers and either joined 8 years ago, or last week.
 

 

[plenzmd1]

And so it begins. Trump is so xenophobic and childlike in his thoughts , i am not 100% sure he understands the global economy at all. I sure as hell hope he gets this mess figured out fast. 

 

https://www.axios.com/apple-earnings-warning-2ea38184-4298-41cb-bac1-2f9f1ceaa8b9.html

[outsidethebox]

43 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

And so it begins. Trump is so xenophobic and childlike in his thoughts , i am not 100% sure he understands the global economy at all. I sure as hell hope he gets this mess figured out fast. 

 

https://www.axios.com/apple-earnings-warning-2ea38184-4298-41cb-bac1-2f9f1ceaa8b9.html

What does this have to do with Trump? Apple is a business. Like all businesses, they need to adjust or be run out of business. 

They expected 89 billion in profits but only made 84 billion. My heart bleeds for them.

[boyst]

1 hour ago, westside said:

What does this have to do with Trump? Apple is a business. Like all businesses, they need to adjust or be run out of business. 

They expected 89 billion in profits but only made 84 billion. My heart bleeds for them.

#orangemanbad

[/dev/null]

2 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

And so it begins. Trump is so xenophobic and childlike in his thoughts , i am not 100% sure he understands the global economy at all. I sure as hell hope he gets this mess figured out fast. 

 

https://www.axios.com/apple-earnings-warning-2ea38184-4298-41cb-bac1-2f9f1ceaa8b9.html

 

Apple's problems were inevitable. 

 

Their growth was based on people buying smart phones and apps.  We're approaching "peak smartphone" where the pool of new smartphone users is only shrinking.  Existing smartphone users have realized they don't have to stand in line every year to upgrade to the latest and greatest. 

 

Fewer new phones and fewer upgrades mean people are buying fewer apps.  Fewer app purchases means Apple is generating less revenue from the 15% "Apple Tax"

 

Increased competition from Android devices have cut into Apple's market share

[sherpa]

2 hours ago, westside said:

What does this have to do with Trump? Apple is a business. Like all businesses, they need to adjust or be run out of business. 

They expected 89 billion in profits but only made 84 billion. My heart bleeds for them.

 

To be accurate, its a revenue shortfall, meaning sales.

Not profit.

[plenzmd1]

3 hours ago, westside said:

What does this have to do with Trump? Apple is a business. Like all businesses, they need to adjust or be run out of business. 

They expected 89 billion in profits but only made 84 billion. My heart bleeds for them.

Do you understand how global markets work and the effect of tariffs? My gut tells me no. 

 

Based on your statement, you believe somehow the US economy is insulated form world markets. God bless ya son, I guess ignorance teulybis bliss. Go back to being happy!

 

Edited January 3, 2019 by plenzmd1

[plenzmd1]

58 minutes ago, /dev/null said:

 

Apple's problems were inevitable. 

 

Their growth was based on people buying smart phones and apps.  We're approaching "peak smartphone" where the pool of new smartphone users is only shrinking.  Existing smartphone users have realized they don't have to stand in line every year to upgrade to the latest and greatest. 

 

Fewer new phones and fewer upgrades mean people are buying fewer apps.  Fewer app purchases means Apple is generating less revenue from the 15% "Apple Tax"

 

Increased competition from Android devices have cut into Apple's market share

I think the larger macro issue is the 2nd largest economy in the world is starting to slow down. I am not saying 100% due to the Trump tariffs, but theyvare certainly contributing to to the slowdown. 

 

For many businessses, especially tech companies, a good portion of their 1-3 year strategic plans incorporate healthy revenue growth in China and APAC. Those projections and plans are being put at jeopardy due to the global slowdown that Trump is turbo charging with inane tariffs. 

 

Apple is just a harbinger of what’s to come earning wise from other tech companies if this tariff mess is not cleaned up quick. 

[Tiberius]

Hey, what can go wrong when you start taxing everything? 

[boyst]

15 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

Do you understand how global markets work and the effect of tariffs? My gut tells me no. 

 

Based on your statement, you believe somehow the US economy is insulated form world markets. God bless ya son, I guess ignorance teulybis bliss. Go back to being happy!

 

See this:

1 hour ago, /dev/null said:

 

Apple's problems were inevitable. 

 

Their growth was based on people buying smart phones and apps.  We're approaching "peak smartphone" where the pool of new smartphone users is only shrinking.  Existing smartphone users have realized they don't have to stand in line every year to upgrade to the latest and greatest. 

 

Fewer new phones and fewer upgrades mean people are buying fewer apps.  Fewer app purchases means Apple is generating less revenue from the 15% "Apple Tax"

 

Increased competition from Android devices have cut into Apple's market share

To explain everything.

 

You can look at Samsung, LG, and the Google phones for similar information.  Apple has become oversaturated, as well.  When every grandmother and grandfather has the apple phone it means it's reached it's peak.  The benefits of the old folks having it are facetiming the grandyoungins but that's about it - they're not buying the apps. Nor are over celebrated douchebag 12 year olds whose parents are buying them an iPhone.

 

Apple hasn't had a breakthrough on their technology with iPhone in 5+ years and there is no draw to them. Nor have other phones, for the most part. But what is happening to apple with their phone is just like what happened to Blackberry.

 

Point: only so many smart phone users in the country & world. That apple can no longer tap in to them for new phones hurts. Not to mention Apple having invested a lot in the last few years for facilities and upkeep on top of having an expensive buy in for apps.

 

Apples downfall is coming.

[3rdnlng]

1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

I think the larger macro issue is the 2nd largest economy in the world is starting to slow down. I am not saying 100% due to the Trump tariffs, but theyvare certainly contributing to to the slowdown. 

 

For many businessses, especially tech companies, a good portion of their 1-3 year strategic plans incorporate healthy revenue growth in China and APAC. Those projections and plans are being put at jeopardy due to the global slowdown that Trump is turbo charging with inane tariffs. 

 

Apple is just a harbinger of what’s to come earning wise from other tech companies if this tariff mess is not cleaned up quick. 

This is why Trump is winning the tariff war and putting us in position for fair trade with China. Isn't it nice to have a leader looking out for our best interests?

[GG]

2 hours ago, /dev/null said:

 

Apple's problems were inevitable. 

 

Their growth was based on people buying smart phones and apps.  We're approaching "peak smartphone" where the pool of new smartphone users is only shrinking.  Existing smartphone users have realized they don't have to stand in line every year to upgrade to the latest and greatest. 

 

Fewer new phones and fewer upgrades mean people are buying fewer apps.  Fewer app purchases means Apple is generating less revenue from the 15% "Apple Tax"

 

Increased competition from Android devices have cut into Apple's market share

You're half right.  The sales miss is due to a much faster downturn in China that anyone expected (yes, thanks Trump) and the elongation of the iPhone replacement cycles.  Apple new this day of reckoning was coming, they and the market just didn't know when.

 

The flip side is that the app/services side is where the growth will be because it's not as dependent on new handset sales.  Their goal now is to have you buy more apps/video/music on the phones that you don't replace as often.

[outsidethebox]

2 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

Do you understand how global markets work and the effect of tariffs? My gut tells me no. 

 

Based on your statement, you believe somehow the US economy is insulated form world markets. God bless ya son, I guess ignorance teulybis bliss. Go back to being happy!

 

Can you show me proof tariffs are to blame and not the product or the management at Apple?

 

Why should we (the American people) care about Apple and there profits if we're not effected by it?

 

I put country first, do you?

[plenzmd1]

2 minutes ago, westside said:

Can you show me proof tariffs are to blame and not the product or the management at Apple?

 

Why should we (the American people) care about Apple and there profits if we're not effected by it?

 

I put country first, do you?

Yes I can, itnis all over the place. The Chinese economy is slowing down, that’s just a fact. The Trump tariffs, while not 100% responsible for that, is contributing to the slowdown. BTW, that is THE VERY THING TRUMP WANTS , If you understood what Trump wanted to accomplish with the tariffs, you would be bragging on your guy causing the slowdown as he feels the pressure exerted on the Chinese by the tariffs would have this very effect and force them into negotiations.  

 

And BTW, when trilllion dollar market cap companies get hurt, you can bet your sweet behind it hurts all of USA. Let’s not forget the other pillar of his economic plan was to cut corporate tax so much earnings woild continually grow at outpaced levels , corporate spending therefore would increase, and all the tickle down effects would then occur. 

 

When you policies are having the the opposite effect, your whole plan is in trouble. 

 

Damn, do a little research and have a bit of understanding befor wjjuat saying “ Trump is God, never wrong”

[3rdnlng]

12 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

Yes I can, itnis all over the place. The Chinese economy is slowing down, that’s just a fact. The Trump tariffs, while not 100% responsible for that, is contributing to the slowdown. BTW, that is THE VERY THING TRUMP WANTS , If you understood what Trump wanted to accomplish with the tariffs, you would be bragging on your guy causing the slowdown as he feels the pressure exerted on the Chinese by the tariffs would have this very effect and force them into negotiations.  

 

And BTW, when trilllion dollar market cap companies get hurt, you can bet your sweet behind it hurts all of USA. Let’s not forget the other pillar of his economic plan was to cut corporate tax so much earnings woild continually grow at outpaced levels , corporate spending therefore would increase, and all the tickle down effects would then occur. 

 

When you policies are having the the opposite effect, your whole plan is in trouble. 

 

Damn, do a little research and have a bit of understanding befor wjjuat saying “ Trump is God, never wrong”

So, the tariffs are working, but then again they are not working? Are you trying to say that cutting the corporate tax rate was a bad thing for the economy? You seem confused.

[plenzmd1]

20 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

So, the tariffs are working, but then again they are not working? Are you trying to say that cutting the corporate tax rate was a bad thing for the economy? You seem confused.

Yes the tariffs are having the desired effect on the Chinese economy. Reasonable people can disagree on if the desired effect is good or bad for the US economy.

 

Trump is betting based on the volume of the trade deficit between the two countries, China will cry uncle first and acquiesce to the changes Trump wants. I think that may be wishful thinking..they ain't worried about an election!

 

Lets even say they do give in 100% to Trump wants..a Chinese economy with 1.4 Billion people that now has less economic buying power..is that good for the US when so many companies have earnings and projections tied to that market?

 

And yes, I think cutting the tax was a horrible idea for the economy. It was a one-time sugar rush injected into an already strong economy that was just not needed. It is affecting our deficits and the markets are reflecting what most expect to happen to corporate profits and growth in the next 18-24 months. Have some unskilled workers been able to be put back on employment rolls? Yep..lets see how long that lasts. 

 

Lots of indicators point to a weakening economy...outlined here very well i think.

 

https://www.kiplinger.com/article/business/T019-C000-S010-business-spending-forecast.html

[Swill Merchant]

4 hours ago, /dev/null said:

 

Apple's problems were inevitable. 

 

Their growth was based on people buying smart phones and apps.  We're approaching "peak smartphone" where the pool of new smartphone users is only shrinking.  Existing smartphone users have realized they don't have to stand in line every year to upgrade to the latest and greatest. 

 

Fewer new phones and fewer upgrades mean people are buying fewer apps.  Fewer app purchases means Apple is generating less revenue from the 15% "Apple Tax"

 

Increased competition from Android devices have cut into Apple's market share

Not only that, Steve Jobs was the driving force behind Apple. Once he kicked Apple's decline was inevitable. Apple without Steve Jobs is like the Patriots without Bellichick. 

[Buffalo_Gal]

 

[outsidethebox]

What a great president he is. I can't remember when's the last time a president has put the country first like President Trump. 

He has become the leftwing nuts daddy!!

[TH3]

23 minutes ago, westside said:

What a great president he is. I can't remember when's the last time a president has put the country first like President Trump. 

He has become the leftwing nuts daddy!!

Talking with a friend New Year eve....he was commenting on how GOP/CON...whatever it is you guys seem to identify as these days....since RR the right wing  really just gravitated to politics of emotion as opposed to policy....Guv bad....need wall...tax too much...guv problem...immigrants are problem....global trade bad....Pelosi bad....my gut is smarter than your heard....small marco...hoax...conspiracy...voter fraud...

 

 Hate to tell you guys...but the Dems have actually cornered the market on putting actual policy on the table......at some point you have to actually produce some policy....the GOP had the majority for 2 years and all they came up with was bloating the budget, passing a tax package that will be reversed out of necessity, and stuffing the courts...

 

America First!!

 

Edited January 3, 2019 by TH3

[meazza]

36 minutes ago, westside said:

What a great president he is. I can't remember when's the last time a president has put the country first like President Trump. 

He has become the leftwing nuts daddy!!

 

Take it easy there. 

Edited January 3, 2019 by meazza

[keepthefaith]

17 minutes ago, TH3 said:

Talking with a friend New Year eve....he was commenting on how GOP/CON...whatever it is you guys seem to identify as these days....since RR the right wing  really just gravitated to politics of emotion as opposed to policy....Guv bad....need wall...tax too much...guv problem...immigrants are problem....global trade bad....Pelosi bad....my gut is smarter than your heard....small marco...hoax...conspiracy...voter fraud...

 

 Hate to tell you guys...but the Dems have actually cornered the market on putting actual policy on the table......at some point you have to actually produce some policy....the GOP had the majority for 2 years and all they came up with was bloating the budget, passing a tax package that will be reversed out of necessity, and stuffing the courts...

 

America First!!

 

 

What policies have Dems put on the table and why are they good? 

[outsidethebox]

15 minutes ago, TH3 said:

Talking with a friend New Year eve....he was commenting on how GOP/CON...whatever it is you guys seem to identify as these days....since RR the right wing  really just gravitated to politics of emotion as opposed to policy....Guv bad....need wall...tax too much...guv problem...immigrants are problem....global trade bad....Pelosi bad....my gut is smarter than your heard....small marco...hoax...conspiracy...voter fraud...

 

 Hate to tell you guys...but the Dems have actually cornered the market on putting actual policy on the table......at some point you have to actually produce some policy....the GOP had the majority for 2 years and all they came up with was bloating the budget, passing a tax package that will be reversed out of necessity, and stuffing the courts...

 

America First!!

 

Lol, the dems have cornered the market on being triggered, melting down. The left runs on nothing but emotions and feelings. Did you get a tingle down your leg when Obama was elected.

The left is constantly projecting their own actions on the right. 

This has to be the funniest post I've seen in dsys.

7 minutes ago, meazza said:

 

Take it easy there. 

I don't consider you a leftwing nut. ?

[GG]

30 minutes ago, TH3 said:

Talking with a friend New Year eve....he was commenting on how GOP/CON...whatever it is you guys seem to identify as these days....since RR the right wing  really just gravitated to politics of emotion as opposed to policy....Guv bad....need wall...tax too much...guv problem...immigrants are problem....global trade bad....Pelosi bad....my gut is smarter than your heard....small marco...hoax...conspiracy...voter fraud...

 

 Hate to tell you guys...but the Dems have actually cornered the market on putting actual policy on the table......at some point you have to actually produce some policy....the GOP had the majority for 2 years and all they came up with was bloating the budget, passing a tax package that will be reversed out of necessity, and stuffing the courts...

 

America First!!

 

 

Your definition of cornering policy is moving to a socialist regime and promise voters a free lunch that will be paid by the evil businesses, then you are 100% correct.  Besides, private business does no good anyway.  We should get rid of them or tax them out of existence.

[GG]

3 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

Yes the tariffs are having the desired effect on the Chinese economy. Reasonable people can disagree on if the desired effect is good or bad for the US economy.

 

 

Tariffs are leading precisely to their preordained outcome, that is to stifle economic activity.  The real question though, "Is Trump using tariffs as economic warfare to get China to bend, or is he using them to prop up the US economy?"   One of those is costly but necessary (but could really spiral out of control).  The other is costly and stupid.

[TPS]

The markets are melting, and the Yield curve has flat-lined as the 10-year Treasury has come down 50 bp, suggesting a serious slowdown. 

Trump shot his wad with the tax cuts, but now the economy is about to go limp...Maybe it's time for another fiscal shot in the form of his infrastructure plan?  

 

[Buffalo_Gal]

7 minutes ago, TPS said:

The markets are melting, and the Yield curve has flat-lined as the 10-year Treasury has come down 50 bp, suggesting a serious slowdown. 

Trump shot his wad with the tax cuts, but now the economy is about to go limp...Maybe it's time for another fiscal shot in the form of his infrastructure plan?  

 

Reacting to Nancy P back as speaker and a Dem house, perhaps? 

[plenzmd1]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

Reacting to Nancy P back as speaker and a Dem house, perhaps? 

You don’t even believe that! But nice try!

[Koko78]

2 hours ago, keepthefaith said:

 

What policies have Dems put on the table and why are they good? 

 

Orange Man Bad. Which is good, because #OrangeManBad.

[Buffalo_Gal]

1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

You don’t even believe that! But nice try!

(While today appears to be all tied Apple-China - and Apple has dropped a ton in the last 3 months  - heck even after getting  in Trump digs, CNN says this is pretty company specific (with a trickle down to companies holding Apple stock, and manufacturing and selling for Apple) and if CNN admits that... )

As far as the market goes, I do think people who are serious day traders are a bit schizophrenic:

"YAY! lay-offs, let's buy!" "Yay the economy is growing, let's buy"! "YAY no rate hike this quarter, let's buy." "YAY no inflation this quarter, let's buy!" 

and then...

"Trump got elected, let's sell!" "My buddy Ralph said there was a whisper of tax increases, let's sell!"  "Hmmm they underperformed by a smidge, let's sell" "My buddy Clyde said it was a good time to sell, let's sell!" 

and then...

"Hmmm the market is tanking, must be some deals, let's buy" at the same time someone else is going "Hmmm the market is tanking I better get out now!"

It has been called legalized gambling for eons now for a reason.  

Edited January 3, 2019 by Buffalo_Gal

[Buffalo_Gal]

*********


Since this may get merged, the jobs numbers for December:  

 

U.S. Private Sector Adds 271,000 Jobs in December, Easily Beats Forecasts

The U.S. economy adds 271,000 private sector jobs in December, according to ADP, easily topping economists' forecasts.
 

<snip>
 

The ADP numbers were released one day ahead of the Labor Department's official U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for December. Economists surveyed by FactSet expect the U.S. to have added 180,000 jobs last month with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.7%.
 

</snip>

[plenzmd1]

@Buffalo_Gal So’s ya saying it was not related to Pelosi??

 

it it was a valiant try, and I had a good chuckle! 

[Buffalo_Gal]

36 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

@Buffalo_Gal So’s ya saying it was not related to Pelosi??

 

it it was a valiant try, and I had a good chuckle! 

 

Some of it definitely was - or did you miss the part where I said everything and anything can spook investors? New congress, old congress, new taxes, budget uncertainty... all tied together.