This is Insane - Tyrod's stats vs Bills QB since Kelly

[C.Biscuit97]

I don't have a dog in this hunt. I think it's easier to pass because of the rules but WEO makes a good point.

 

 

in 2015, the top YPA passer was 8.7 and the #10 in the league was 7.6

 

in 2005, the top YPA passer was 8.9 and the #10 in the league was 7.3

 

in 1995, the top YPA passer was 8.2 and the #10 in the league was 7.2

 

in 1985, the top YPA passer was 8.5 and the #10 in the league was 7.3

 

Seems pretty much the same.

That's fair. I'm basically saying that teams pass more because it's so much easier. I think penalties should be included into passing stats. How many more PIs, holding, or illegal conduct penalties are there now compared to the Kelly era?

 

A guy like Edleman would have been murdered by Atwater or Lott back then. Blake Bortles is putting up better numbers than Kelly did. The league rules are the reason for this IMO.

[bobobonators]

You are seriously arguing it's not easier to pass now?

 

There was 1 4,000 yard passer in 1991. The guy who finished 2nd in 1991 would have finished 14th this year.

 

There are more attempts because it's easier to pass now.

 

I apologize if I sidetracked it. I think Taylor had a very solid season. His td to int ratio was outstanding.

 

Personally, I think our offense had too many lags and we only averaged 22 points. I am hopeful that Taylor can take the next step. I think certain stats are a bit flawed however. Jmo though.

I agree stats can definitely be misleading at times. Or they can be manipulated a bit.

 

That being said i had no idea what to expect from TT going into this season and boy was I impressed.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Well, I did say that...but the whole point is that I even had to go back to Jim Kelly.

 

Also, completion % is still relevant...also yds/attempt...maybe not total yards b/c teams pass more today. Also, TD/INT ratio is still somewhat relevant.

 

These are all relevant things to look at. Completion %, YPA, # INTs ,and TD/INTs are all correlated to winning.

 

Going back to your original point, I think the fact that the passing game is made easier today due to rule changes makes it even more astounding - egregious even on the Bills - that you had to go back to Kelly.

 

That said, I do point out two cautionary notes. First, Tyrod's TD to INT ratio may be a little bit too good, and may reflect being a bit too conservative or running sometimes when he's not sure what he sees and doesn't want to blow it. With experience comes confidence, but the race is on to see if Tyrod develops his red-zone read game before big, fat DLmen and LB squash him like a bug.

 

The thing that concerns me very much can be seen here:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TaylTy00.htm

Click on "ATT" to sort his number of attempts from highest to lowest. See it?

 

For those who don't want to go there and do that, I'll give it away: There is a very strong correlation between games that we lost, and games where Tyrod threw over 30 passes. Games over 30 passing attempts: 5 games, 0 wins, 5 losses. Games less than 30 passing attempts: 9 games, 8 wins, 1 loss.

 

While throwing more doesn't necessarily mean winning more in the NFL, this is not good enough, long term, at the NFL level. The final Jets game was a ray of hope, because Taylor threw all over the field including stepping up and throwing across the middle. But that's the next step he needs to take, and take consistently, to be "The Man" long term here.

 

And to all the snide little sportswriters and talking heads who sneered at Buffalo because Tyrod Taylor was our QB, I say: :nana:

[C.Biscuit97]

I agree stats can definitely be misleading at times. Or they can be manipulated a bit.

 

That being said i had no idea what to expect from TT going into this season and boy was I impressed.

I definitely agree.

 

The next step is more throws over the middle (which could lead to more ints), getting better at converting 3rd downs, and hitting his 2nd or 3rd options.

 

Taylor could be a better NFL qb next year with worse stats.

[Greg F]

Guys were throwing more than 600 times a year back then as well.

Your assertion is demonstrably wrong.

 

In 2014 fifteen QB's had over 500 attempts, 6 of those QB's were over 600 attempts.

 

In 1990 only five QB's had over 500 attempts, none were over 600.

 

In 1991 only Warren Moon had over 600 attempts. The next closest was Marino with 549 attempts. No other QB's were over 500 attempts that year.

 

In 1992 the only QB with over 500 attempts was Marino, none over 600.

 

In 1993 three QB's were over 500 attempts, none over 600.

 

In 1994 there were six QB's with over 500 attempts, three of which were over 600 attempts.

 

So over a 5 year span in the beginning of the 90's there were only 6 instances of QB's having more than 600 attempts. In that era going over 500 attempts was relatively rare.

[Punching Bag]

Also, completion % is still relevant...also yds/attempt...maybe not total yards b/c teams pass more today. Also, TD/INT ratio is still somewhat relevant.

Neither are. DBs are much more limited and WRs can not be shoved out of bounds.

[bobobonators]

Neither are. DBs are much more limited and WRs can not be shoved out of bounds.

WR can be shoved out of bounds.

 

And completion % and TD/INT ratio are both still relevant. QBs arent completing 95% of their passes and not every QB that finishes a full season has a 3.33 TD/INT ratio.

[Mr. WEO]

Your assertion is demonstrably wrong.

 

In 2014 fifteen QB's had over 500 attempts, 6 of those QB's were over 600 attempts.

 

In 1990 only five QB's had over 500 attempts, none were over 600.

 

In 1991 only Warren Moon had over 600 attempts. The next closest was Marino with 549 attempts. No other QB's were over 500 attempts that year.

 

In 1992 the only QB with over 500 attempts was Marino, none over 600.

 

In 1993 three QB's were over 500 attempts, none over 600.

 

In 1994 there were six QB's with over 500 attempts, three of which were over 600 attempts.

 

So over a 5 year span in the beginning of the 90's there were only 6 instances of QB's having more than 600 attempts. In that era going over 500 attempts was relatively rare.

 

 

I said guys were throwing more than 600 times back then and you demonstrated (demonstrably, no less) that that was true.

 

There was no rule change (or lack there of) preventing Jim Kelly from being one of those QBs who threw over 500-600 times. Just wasn't the style of play.

 

The year before the "new rules" went into effect (2004), there were 5 QBs over 4000 yards. 3 of the top 4 were such future HOFers as Culpepper, Trent Greee and Jake Plummer. 2 years after the rules went into effect, there were...5 QBs over 400 yards. 4 years after the change in rules, there were 6 QBs. 6 years after there were 5...

Edited January 6, 2016 by Mr. WEO

[Greg F]

I said guys were throwing more than 600 times back then and you demonstrated (demonstrably, no less) that that was true.

You said that in response to:

 

You are seriously arguing it's not easier to pass now?

 

There was 1 4,000 yard passer in 1991. The guy who finished 2nd in 1991 would have finished 14th this year.

The time frame is 1991 ... got it. From 1989 to 1993 there were not "guys were throwing more than 600 times". There was only one guy that threw over 600 times, Warren Moon, and he only did it once. And before that there was one guy in 1988 and 1986 (Marino) that had over 600 attempts. Which brings us to 1994 when all of sudden there are six QB's with over 500 attempts and three over 600 attempts. And you assert:

 

The offensive philosophy was different back then. It has changed--natural progression of the game, beginning in college. These "rule changes" (no contact beyond 5 yards?) aren't what did it.

Naw ... According to you rule changes had nothing to do with it.

 

At the annual owners meeting in March 1994, the NFLs competition committee passed a bundle of new rules. The committee, chaired by legendary Miami Dolphins coach Don Shula and New York Giants general manager George Young, endeavored to make life easier for offensive players, to discourage the kicking game, and to guide the league into a new technological realm. The changes they pushed through included a renewed emphasis on prohibiting downfield chucking, to ensure that defensive backs could not jam receivers more than five yards down the field; giving offensive lineman the option of lining up with one foot behind the line of scrimmage; adding two point conversions; emphasizing the roughing the passer rule, to deter defenders from hitting the quarterback after he released the ball; changing the spot of the ball after missed field goals from the line of scrimmage to the point of the kick; and adding radio transmitters to quarterbacks helmets so coaches could talk directly to their field generals.

 

The NFL had never before approved such a comprehensive package of rules with an eye toward achieving one particular goal. According to the Philadelphia Inquirer, Tagliabue said the new rules would have a significant effect in boosting [offensive] production. Taken as a whole, they painted a clear picture of how Tagliabue and his cohorts wanted the game to evolve. They wanted more offense, specifically more passing, and so they prohibited certain kinds of physical contact on receivers and quarterbacks, thus curtailing defensive players ability to disrupt offensive timing. They gave offensive lineman more flexibility to counteract the talents of outside pass rushers such as Bruce Smith and Derrick Thomas, who were wreaking havoc with their unfathomable combinations of size and speed. The implementation of radio transmitters allowed coaches to communicate with quarterbacks in real time. And the addition of the two-point conversion, as well as the field position penalty after missed field goals, made the leagues preference for touchdowns rather than field goals quite clear.

Hate to be captain obvious here but there is really no debate that the increase in passing is a direct result of deliberate rule changes with exactly that goal.

[BobbyC81]

Jim was a great leader. I'd like to see Tyrod step up and claim a leadership position with the team. Get a public speaking coach. Tyrod is quietly having a good year but I'd like to see him do it not so quietly. It's his team now. We need more leadership on this team and the players need to hold each other accountable

 

He definitely showed some leadership in the Jets game when he got in the middle of a fracas, grabbed the Bills O-Lineman (Mills?) and told him to go back to their side of the field.

[DC Tom]

You know what's insane? This is the first time the Bills have had back-to-back non-losing seasons (8-8 or better) since...

 

1999 and 2000.

[dulles]

 

Yes it was; I thought he was one of the nice surprises this year. But the stats can still be misleading, he's obviously not a top 10 QB yet. Hopefully his development will continue next year.

I think he could develop into one of those dependable guys who get you 10 wins a year and occasionally exceed along with the team for a 12 win season - like Dalton. I like that he got a lot more aggressive with targeting Watkins. That is what big time QB's do. They don't JUST share the ball, they also get it to their star. It was especially noteworthy since Watkins was essentially our only target against the Jets. I don't know why they signed Salas for next year...he must have put a hit out on someone Rex hates! Back to TT...IF...IF Rex gets the defense in good shape, TT doesn't have to throw 5000 yards, nor should he run for 500. I think the pass-pro will get better and he'll get more comfortable with the receivers. A whole offseason of being the Number 1 is good for a guy like TT and his receivers.

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Put a better offensive line in front of Taylor and keep his weapons relatively healthy and he'll progress more so than he undoubtedly will following a year as starter on a so so team. Those who continually knock him were looking for a Pro Bowl level performance from a guy who'd never previously started an NFL game. It's nonsensical.

[chris heff]

What's insane is nit picking Taylor. I think he exceeded most people's expectations. I know he did mine. So he didn't pass enough? Weren't we told multiple times that the offense was going to ground and pound? Seems to me they succeeded at that. I don't know the stat, but he probably pulled it down and ran more than most. I don't have a problem with that as long as he learns to slide, he is insanely fast.

 

He doesn't throw over the middle. Has anyone considered that they were protecting him from interceptions? Helping to build his confidence, for some reason I think I read that. Throws outside the hash marks are harder, but less likely to be intercepted. For the most part his accuracy was insane.

 

First year starter, first year in this offense, first year playing with these guys. He is smart, he can make all the throws, he's insanely athletic. Give him another WR weapon, protect him and I believe he is just going to get better.

Edited January 6, 2016 by chris heff

[Big Gun]

If you include his four rushing TDs, he had a clean 4 to 1 TD/TO ratio (24-6).

Almost as he did also have one lost fumble 24TDs - 7 TOs

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

I don't have a dog in this hunt. I think it's easier to pass because of the rules but WEO makes a good point.

 

 

in 2015, the top YPA passer was 8.7 and the #10 in the league was 7.6

 

in 2014, the top YPA passer was 8.5 and the #10 in the league was 7.5

 

in 2005, the top YPA passer was 8.9 and the #10 in the league was 7.3

 

in 1995, the top YPA passer was 8.2 and the #10 in the league was 7.2

 

in 1985, the top YPA passer was 8.5 and the #10 in the league was 7.3

 

Seems pretty much the same.

AND I suspect, to boot with regards to cumulative stats, there must be more pass attempts.

[Dorkington]

It's pretty damning that with how easy the game has gotten for QBs over the years, we have to go all the way back to Kelly to see stats that match Tyrod's.

[Original Byrd Man]

His fashion game is top notch as well. The hoodie under the sportcoat look blended formal and function

That was a nice look. I might have to copy.

[Mr. WEO]

 

You said that in response to:

 

 

The time frame is 1991 ... got it. From 1989 to 1993 there were not "guys were throwing more than 600 times". There was only one guy that threw over 600 times, Warren Moon, and he only did it once. And before that there was one guy in 1988 and 1986 (Marino) that had over 600 attempts. Which brings us to 1994 when all of sudden there are six QB's with over 500 attempts and three over 600 attempts. And you assert:

 

 

Naw ... According to you rule changes had nothing to do with it.

 

 

Hate to be captain obvious here but there is really no debate that the increase in passing is a direct result of deliberate rule changes with exactly that goal.

 

 

We were talking about Kelly and his contemporaries. Marino and Moon threw for over 600. Rules did not prevent them from doing so. The rule changes you cite are mostly "emphasizing" existing rules and the addition of the 5 yard downfield rule. 10 years later, after the next wave of "rule changes" there were only 5 guys over 4000 yards. 4 years after that there were still only 5 guys over 4000 yards.

[YoloinOhio]

I waited the whole season to give him a promise ring. The more i watch TT and the more I watch other NFL QBs, the more I love him. I don't have any reason to believe he *cannot* be the next Russell Wilson. IMO he was the team MVP. The two games he was out, we lost. Every game we won, he was there.

 

My head says I should be open to seeing other people. You will be disappointed, they say. But my heart says otherwise.

 

But what do I know, I'm an idiot.

Edited January 6, 2016 by YoloinOhio