Carucci doesn't expect any offseason changes...

[Gray Beard]

Just my opinion, but firing Whaley and keeping Rex would be disastrous. Brain dead. One of the worst moves ever.

 

On the other hand, I would not be surprised if Whaley leaves on his own for a better situation. He's hog tied with having no power over Rex and he can probably see the writing on the wall as well as anyone. I expect him to be a long time successful GM, with titles on his record, somewhere, if not here.

I think Whaley has done a good job, and I would rather keep him and fire Rex. But with the big contract they gave Rex, I think they may go the other way. It could only work if they can find somebody with good credentials who will take the job, and let everyone know that he is supposed to give Rex a hard time about the lack of discipline that the team shows too often.

[Martifal]

The Bills have had 3 Head Coaches and 8 O and D coordinators in the last 5 years, unless they are trying to emulate Cleveland, I would hope the Pegulas keep things as are. Whaley has done a hell of a job bringing in talent if they fired him he would land elsewhere in a hurry, and fans would be twice as angry he's gone, a lot of good things are happening let it play out. REMEMBER THE 95 COLTS (So your telling me there's a chance)

[GG]

I don't know if that bolded part is true. It is my contention that because there is little or no pressure on the opposing QB they are able to sit back and pick the Bills defensive secondary apart. Meaning they can easily step up in the pocket after a 5 to 7 step drop to throw those deep passes because they have the time to do so.

 

What I saw this year was Ron Darby, and Gilmore playing great despite being hung out to dry with no pass rush. What I didn't see was opposing receivers wide open because of constant blown coverage's, and in fact I saw the opposite with the Bills players still making plays. I can only imagine how freaking great that Bills secondary could have been this year with a top five pass rush.

 

 

To answer the question, I can only hope that the Pegula's ask Ryan to fire his entire defensive staff, and when he refuses. By those grounds they can fire him, and then not pay him for his remaining contract citing insubordination. Then hire someone who will actually utilize the players on the roster for which they were purposely brought in, and given top money to do.

 

I so want the Bills to hire a head coach that doesn't call the call the offensive or defensive plays or set up the game plans for either, like Gailey, Ryan have done. Or even like Marrone with his helping his good buddy Danny Crossman the special teams coach all year. Probably why the special teams sucked so bad this year because St Doug isn't here holding his hand, and probably why the Bills offense stunk under Maroon because the novice running the offense got very little help.

 

Simply put the Buffalo Bills need to hire a man who is smart enough to beat Bill Belichick, Tom Brady on a consistent basis.

 

It's ridiculous to think that Pegulas would even entertain asking Ryan to make changes on his defensive staff, since the defense is Rex Ryan.

 

In your analysis you admit that the coverages are tight on nearly every play. And they are. What I'm referring to are the 4-5 key back breaking plays where the miscommunication or wrong read by a player caused a TD or a long gain. This defense isn't quite there yet, and Rex's defenses were usually susceptible to the big play. That's magnified this year when the schemes are still sinking in.

 

No one can argue that Bills pass rush and overall defense performed better last year. The question for Rex was how much of his system would he start putting in place when he didn't have the players for it. Clearly he misjudged his ability and his players capability to learn.

 

But here are the plays that make all the difference between this year and last

 

Miami - Rashard Matthews 46 Yd TD

Giants - Jennings 51Yd TD - LB miscommunication

Jax - Hurns 31 Yd TD - DB coverage miscommunication

KC - Maclin long pass - Butler in coverage

Phily - Aghulor 53 Yd pass - DB coverage miscommunication

 

On very few of the above plays did the QB have all day to throw.

 

So again, the question is how many of the above plays don't happen next year?

[YoloinOhio]

I listened to the Carucci-Skurski podcast this afternoon (I neglected this all season and I don't know why, it's very good IMO) and while they don't "know" anything definitive, both seemed convinced that Rex has 1 more year to get this fixed (mainly that they will give him a mulligan for not having the players he needs to run his scheme, all the injuries, and the 1st year QB) and if it's a .500 and no playoff team again next year he will be gone. I don't know if that will be the case, but if it comes down to it they seem to think the Pegs would eat the 15mil and start over.

 

I only mention this because I've seen some assume he's here 2-3 more years no matter what, and apparently these two think that isn't the case at all.

Edited December 19, 2015 by YoloinOhio

[Nihilarian]

 

It's ridiculous to think that Pegulas would even entertain asking Ryan to make changes on his defensive staff, since the defense is Rex Ryan.

 

In your analysis you admit that the coverages are tight on nearly every play. And they are. What I'm referring to are the 4-5 key back breaking plays where the miscommunication or wrong read by a player caused a TD or a long gain. This defense isn't quite there yet, and Rex's defenses were usually susceptible to the big play. That's magnified this year when the schemes are still sinking in.

 

No one can argue that Bills pass rush and overall defense performed better last year. The question for Rex was how much of his system would he start putting in place when he didn't have the players for it. Clearly he misjudged his ability and his players capability to learn.

 

But here are the plays that make all the difference between this year and last

 

Miami - Rashard Matthews 46 Yd TD

Giants - Jennings 51Yd TD - LB miscommunication

Jax - Hurns 31 Yd TD - DB coverage miscommunication

KC - Maclin long pass - Butler in coverage

Phily - Aghulor 53 Yd pass - DB coverage miscommunication

 

On very few of the above plays did the QB have all day to throw.

 

So again, the question is how many of the above plays don't happen next year?

It's not ridiculous in my view because it's not just about the defense. It's about the entire team being an undisciplined mess at times that can't make simple tackles or continues to make stupid penalties. It's about the HC with the big mouth giving opponents bulletin board material to help motivate them.

 

All season long Bills fans have been desperately clinging to the hope that every game Rex Ryan will get his act together with the defense, the pass rush, the penalties. In week three against the NY Giants the Bills had 17 penalties for 135 yards, and out of those 17 that gave the Giants 7 first downs on offense! Fast forward to week 14 against the Eagles to see the Bills commit 15 penalties for 101 yards with little or no pass rush on Sam Bradford. He was sacked only once in the game by Mario Williams.

 

Stating that, I'm not going to go back and review all those plays. Let's look at that last one to Aghulor in the Eagles game. Bradford out of the shotgun formation and Bills rush only four. He drops back to the Bills 37-yard line and then steps up to the Bills 43-yard line avoiding any rush and hits the WR who had beaten #20 S Corey Graham on the play with a perfect pass. Darby did look out of position five yards to the side. Still the announcers stated that was on Graham who had close coverage but turned his head and loses vision. I don't see that as a DB miscommunication at all. Then, If Bradford had more pressure on him wouldn't have had either the time nor the ability to step up those five yards to throw that deep ball.

 

 

To the Bolded. Ryan's defense was susceptible to the big play in the past because of all the Blitzing he used to do with the Jets. 2019-2010 to the tune of 50% of the Jets defensive snaps, and 54% in 2010. Then to 33 to 34% in 2011-2012.

Just to give that some context to this year in that first game against the Patriots the Bills,

"Ryan's defensive game plan couldn't put pressure on Tom Brady -- the Bills disrupted (a sack, batted ball, passed defense or interception) only 9.8 percent of Brady's dropbacks, a lower rate than in any of the Bills' 2014 games" http://espn.go.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/21042/bills-breakdowns-vs-patriots-start-with-rex-ryan-defensive-staff

 

We have seen almost similar results in the lack of a pass rush in just about every game this year, save one. Hence the reason for the 2015 Buffalo Bills being 30th in sacks this year! It's not just about the lack of blitzing either, as the scheme Ryan is using calls for the DT's to be more involved in gap control, and the defensive linemen being asked to drop into pass coverage more often.

 

All these new owners need to do is hire an NFL senior analyst like the Jets did last offseason when they hired Charlie Casserly, Ron Wolf. Those men will relay to these new owners what exactly happened on the field this past year, and I'm fairly confident that it will result in the changing of the head coach.

[Georgia Bill]

I listened to the Carucci-Skurski podcast this afternoon (I neglected this all season and I don't know why, it's very good IMO) and while they don't "know" anything definitive, both seemed convinced that Rex has 1 more year to get this fixed (mainly that they will give him a mulligan for not having the players he needs to run his scheme, all the injuries, and the 1st year QB) and if it's a .500 and no playoff team again next year he will be gone. I don't know if that will be the case, but if it comes down to it they seem to think the Pegs would eat the 15mil and start over.

 

I only mention this because I've seen some assume he's here 2-3 more years no matter what, and apparently these two think that isn't the case at all.

Really good defenses only come along every so often. We had one but Wrex ruined it with his new schemes this year (and refusal to recognize that perhaps running a D more like last years would be more beneficial). If he stays one more year and releases some of the D to get players who "fit" his scheme, he will be ruining it even more. I'd love to see him fired now. But if what is said above is true and he'll be given one more year, then a year from now when he's fired, we will have missed the window of opportunity with this D, AND be starting over with a new coach. That's just awesome, I'm really looking forward to more years down the drain.

 

What I don't understand is Wrex finally unleashed the QB pressure in the second NE game, and to a large extent it worked - the NE offense was in disarray. After the game Wrex said "that's our defense" implying that was what he was planning to showcase thereafter. Then the next games all of a sudden "poof" we're back to no pressure (except perhaps early w KC) and then QB's are picking us apart again. It is infuriating to me to watch our window of opportunity with a really good D get squeezed down because of an egotistical coach who refuses to adjust to anything except what he can call "his" scheme. I hate the lack of continuity we have been having but we should fire Wrex now before he does more damage.

[3rdand12]

Citation please, as to the secret formula being the key reason for the Rex hire. You have factual knowledge of the Rex hire decision criteria?

 

Media citation.. not one of these under-appreciated auto's

It was discussed in the media. perhaps even hyped?

 

i almost got a Citation once. the wagon.

narrowly averted that.

 

ended up with Volkswagen jetta.

sometimes it is just luck. how things turn out. good luck bad luck.

[3rdand12]

Really good defenses only come along every so often. We had one but Wrex ruined it with his new schemes this year (and refusal to recognize that perhaps running a D more like last years would be more beneficial). If he stays one more year and releases some of the D to get players who "fit" his scheme, he will be ruining it even more. I'd love to see him fired now. But if what is said above is true and he'll be given one more year, then a year from now when he's fired, we will have missed the window of opportunity with this D, AND be starting over with a new coach. That's just awesome, I'm really looking forward to more years down the drain.

 

What I don't understand is Wrex finally unleashed the QB pressure in the second NE game, and to a large extent it worked - the NE offense was in disarray. After the game Wrex said "that's our defense" implying that was what he was planning to showcase thereafter. Then the next games all of a sudden "poof" we're back to no pressure (except perhaps early w KC) and then QB's are picking us apart again. It is infuriating to me to watch our window of opportunity with a really good D get squeezed down because of an egotistical coach who refuses to adjust to anything except what he can call "his" scheme. I hate the lack of continuity we have been having but we should fire Wrex now before he does more damage.

we do not know that the answer is an " egotistical Coach"

we dont know that at all.

we do know he owns what he puts on the field. and thats not cutting it on Defense.

I might suggest Wrexies coaching staff is also not on the same page as much as the players.

 

logistics and information management is sub par for sure.

Expect multiple changes in the middle level management. such as QC. assistants and such. Team is not communicating as a whole!

Edited December 19, 2015 by 3rdand12

[Nihilarian]

Really good defenses only come along every so often. We had one but Wrex ruined it with his new schemes this year (and refusal to recognize that perhaps running a D more like last years would be more beneficial). If he stays one more year and releases some of the D to get players who "fit" his scheme, he will be ruining it even more. I'd love to see him fired now. But if what is said above is true and he'll be given one more year, then a year from now when he's fired, we will have missed the window of opportunity with this D, AND be starting over with a new coach. That's just awesome, I'm really looking forward to more years down the drain.

 

What I don't understand is Wrex finally unleashed the QB pressure in the second NE game, and to a large extent it worked - the NE offense was in disarray. After the game Wrex said "that's our defense" implying that was what he was planning to showcase thereafter. Then the next games all of a sudden "poof" we're back to no pressure (except perhaps early w KC) and then QB's are picking us apart again. It is infuriating to me to watch our window of opportunity with a really good D get squeezed down because of an egotistical coach who refuses to adjust to anything except what he can call "his" scheme. I hate the lack of continuity we have been having but we should fire Wrex now before he does more damage.

It really doesn't make sense to fire Rex right at this point in time simply because the team still has a small chance to make the playoffs. Then Ryan could easily step up his blitz scheming, and start asking all his D-linemen to pass rush more. Once the season ends we will see.

[John from Riverside]

we do not know that the answer is an " egotistical Coach"

we dont know that at all.

we do know he owns what he puts on the field. and thats not cutting it on Defense.

I might suggest Wrexies coaching staff is also not on the same page as much as the players.

 

logistics and information management is sub par for sure.

Expect multiple changes in the middle level management. such as QC. assistants and such. Team is not communicating as a whole!

I really hope that one of the changes is convincing Mike Pettine to come back as DC........then we dont have to make a lot of changes to our D.....Mario stays and regains his form

[3rdand12]

I really hope that one of the changes is convincing Mike Pettine to come back as DC........then we dont have to make a lot of changes to our D.....Mario stays and regains his form

Interesting thought John.

But you might be wishful ?

 

Interesting thought, none the less : )

[YoloinOhio]

I really hope that one of the changes is convincing Mike Pettine to come back as DC........then we dont have to make a lot of changes to our D.....Mario stays and regains his form

im not sure Pettine and Rex had the best relationship down the stretch. But you never know. I actually like Thurman. I don't really pin the issues on him. He's just a Rex puppet and if Pettine came back, he would be too. I think Rex took back the defensive play calling in Pettine's last season with the Jests.

[John from Riverside]

im not sure Pettine and Rex had the best relationship down the stretch. But you never know. I actually like Thurman. I don't really pin the issues on him. He's just a Rex puppet and if Pettine came back, he would be too. I think Rex took back the defensive play calling in Pettine's last season with the Jests.

I have no problem believing any of this either....

 

So if that is the case....how do we fix this.

 

It is absolutely maddening to me that we didnt have our D to be our backbone of the team this season.......

[YoloinOhio]

I have no problem believing any of this either....

 

So if that is the case....how do we fix this.

 

It is absolutely maddening to me that we didnt have our D to be our backbone of the team this season.......

identify the positions that need different players to effectively run the defense, acquire said players in draft/FA, shed players that can't or won't fit, keep the ones that fit and can play, add another offseason,OTAs and TC in the same system (keep in mind this team has not had the same defensive system for more than a season since 2010-11). Build depth in case of injury. Easier said than done, but that's what it comes down to.

[papazoid]

 

not being snarky; what consultants ?

 

for starters he hired the top consultant to guide his purchase of the team, led by the powerful sports broker/investment banker Steve Greenberg.

 

consultants were hired to identify potential sites for a new stadium.

 

he has hired consultants to evaluate all TV and media plans for both franchises.

 

he tried to hire Bill Polian as a consultant/czar to evaluate football operations. they did the same thing with the sabres

 

hired consultant John Koelmel to oversee HarborCenter

[John from Riverside]

identify the positions that need different players to effectively run the defense, acquire said players in draft/FA, shed players that can't or won't fit, keep the ones that fit and can play, add another offseason,OTAs and TC in the same system (keep in mind this team has not had the same defensive system for more than a season since 2010-11). Build depth in case of injury. Easier said than done, but that's what it comes down to.

So if that is the case Mario should be jettisoned and a DE from a 3-4 system should be brought in free agency

[YoloinOhio]

So if that is the case Mario should be jettisoned and a DE from a 3-4 system should be brought in free agency

I don't know anything as just a fan but I think I'd get a safety and NT in FA, and draft a MLB and pass rusher.

[BuffaloBillsMagic1]

2 more years of Rex, never mind 4 and we will all be potentially suicidal.

[Georgia Bill]

It really doesn't make sense to fire Rex right at this point in time simply because the team still has a small chance to make the playoffs. Then Ryan could easily step up his blitz scheming, and start asking all his D-linemen to pass rush more. Once the season ends we will see.

Just to clarifiy, when I said fired now I was talking end of season, not the literal now.

[GG]

It's not ridiculous in my view because it's not just about the defense. It's about the entire team being an undisciplined mess at times that can't make simple tackles or continues to make stupid penalties. It's about the HC with the big mouth giving opponents bulletin board material to help motivate them.

 

 

 

So let me get this straight. You advocate for Pegula to fire the entire defensive staff, yet now the offense and special teams are also the problem.

 

You say that Rex's big problem is the over reliance on the blitz which exposes the team to big plays, but then complain that the Bills can't generate a pass rush with rushing the front four. And on that particular play, rushing only four made a lot of sense because you don't need to sell out an all out blitz.

 

Look at that play. It was a Schwartzian Wide 9 with Mario & Hughes lined up far wide off the tackles. But of course, Mario pulled his usual 2015 stunt of heading straight upfield and all the RT had to do is nudge him off the play and give Bradford a wide open lane to step into and throw. Funny how that happens. Bills ran the Schwartz defense and got burned for a 53 YD TD.

[Nihilarian]

 

So let me get this straight. You advocate for Pegula to fire the entire defensive staff, yet now the offense and special teams are also the problem.

 

You say that Rex's big problem is the over reliance on the blitz which exposes the team to big plays, but then complain that the Bills can't generate a pass rush with rushing the front four. And on that particular play, rushing only four made a lot of sense because you don't need to sell out an all out blitz.

 

Look at that play. It was a Schwartzian Wide 9 with Mario & Hughes lined up far wide off the tackles. But of course, Mario pulled his usual 2015 stunt of heading straight upfield and all the RT had to do is nudge him off the play and give Bradford a wide open lane to step into and throw. Funny how that happens. Bills ran the Schwartz defense and got burned for a 53 YD TD.

I didn't say they were "the" problem. I said the entire team is an undisciplined mess at times and it has been. The special teams unit last year was one of the best in the NFL, and this year has been bad with the coverage units. This is with basically the same players, and same coach. The offensive line has had its share of penalties this year, and every time the offense does that it's a step back and a drive killer. Lack of discipline still falls on the HC because the buck stops with him.

 

Rex's big problem is that he isn't calling many blitzes at all this year! His Jets teams 30 to 50%, and this year 10% or less. I'm complaining about the lack of pass rush / sacks because of the scheme this year defense is utilizing. Mostly because the DT's are being asked to work the gaps rather than rush the passer, and Ryan is having the D-linemen dropping into pass coverage far too often like a zone blitzing team would. Then the defensive line rotation isn't as often this year as it was last season causing those highly paid pass rushers to wear out.

 

 

I believe Mario missed some time / games due to a foot injury and has had an illness as of late. (flu?) He has missed practice for both at times. I'm not going to make excuses for the players when they don't make a play because I don't know how much the injury affects their performance. It looked to me like all four Bills D-linemen went right after Bradford on this play and while Mario ran the arc he was pushed past the QB. While Marcel Dareus beat his man, that Eagles OG wisely pushed Dareus away from Bradford while the QB stepped up between the gaps to throw the ball.

 

The Bills rushed only four and the Eagles kept six in to pass block, and the RB released when he saw only four Bills rushing. While there was some pressure on the play from Dareus the QB quickly sidestepped and stepped up through the gap to throw. I can't find fault with any of the Bills players, and on that particular play, the Bills front four just didn't get it done. Therein lies my complaint with the play calling this year in only rushing four. As a coach if you see that you can't get to the QB by just rushing with the front four, then wouldn't make you think to blitz just a little?

 

Plus the soft pass coverages with the Bills DB's 10 yards off the line, and the safety even deeper. Then that pass play took a full four seconds to develop. When the QB isn't getting hit or feeling heavy pass rush pressure it emboldens them to take more chances. Anyway, on that particular pass play the Eagles just got lucky and hit the deep pass. JMO

 

Dave Wannstedt spent the entire 2012 season mostly rushing just the front four with minimal blitzing, and he still managed more than sacks the Bills have this year. Dave 36 / Rex 19 with three games to go.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

 

for starters he hired the top consultant to guide his purchase of the team, led by the powerful sports broker/investment banker Steve Greenberg.

 

consultants were hired to identify potential sites for a new stadium.

 

he has hired consultants to evaluate all TV and media plans for both franchises.

 

he tried to hire Bill Polian as a consultant/czar to evaluate football operations. they did the same thing with the sabres

 

hired consultant John Koelmel to oversee HarborCenter

 

wonder if he will hire a Czar and let whaley walk?

[atlbillsfan1975]

Rex's D is a scheme driven for the most part. It is a D that needs excellent DB's who can man cover and allow Rex to send guys from everywhere else. I do not think Rex's D needs a DE at the price of Mario. Money that needs to be spent on LB's and Safety. Hughes at $10 mil makes more sense and is what Rex wants for a DE.

I do think Rex is back no question. I don't know if I want Whaley back if he won't listen to what his coach wants and thus go and find the guys for it.

My head and heart say 50/50 on Whaley.

[Nitro]

I can see up to 20 guys gone after this season. Mario Williams, Enemkpali, Gay, Carpenter, Harvin, Kouandijo, Manuel, McKelvin, and Woods are the big names I expect to be gone. He said wholesale changes will be made. Ryan will have a full off season to build his defense. Whaley and Ryan need to agree on they type of players they need. NT and aggressive OBs. In post game he seemed exasperated at the lack of aggression.

[HurlyBurly51]

Vic needs a retraction.

[PlayoffsPlease]

This may turn out to be a good scenario. Rex isn't going anywhere with his contract. They have no financial stake in Whaley going forward. If they can hire a POWERFUL GM, then maybe Rex can be held accountable and the situation could improve.

Pegula spent 1.4 Billion to buy the team. Rex's entire remaining contract takes that to 1.42 Billion. If Pegs thinks the team is better without him, I don't think the contract matters.

Edited December 21, 2015 by PlayoffsPlease