Mario Williams

[TheFunPolice]

I for one am sad that he's seemingly gone

[Dr.Sack]

Mario Williams has been a great addition. 42 sacks in 60 games so far. 95 career sacks and only 30 years old. Before we cut anyone lets consider availability and age.

 

It's easy to scapegoat one of the highest paid defenders on the wrong side of their prime, but Mario has lots of tread left on his tires.

 

We are better off if both Kyle & Mario Williams are Buffalo Bills in 2016 & beyond.

 

Consider this...there's a long list of guys who produced well over 50 sacks past the age of 30. Jason Taylor comes to mind. The guy was 6'6'' 255, 40 lbs lighter than Mario, but still managed 59 sacks (age 31 to age 37) his final 7 seasons.

 

I see Mario following in the Julius Peppers mold another guy of similar build. Both are born in January and are 5 years apart. Since the season Peppers turned 31, 2011, Peppers has posted 43.5 sacks the past 5 seasons.

 

In case people are wondering any guy we might draft would be lucky to get 40 to 50 career sacks.

 

The talk on here of, many of whom are advocating "cutting" Mario now while still under contract is short-sighted. When looking at the facts and hard data, the guy will likely produce another 25 sacks by the most conservative of estimates over the remainder of his career. On the high end Mario will likely get 50 sacks.

 

Now is there a need to restructure Mario? Of course. Now is the time to lock him up through age 35, or the 2019 season. Amortizing the cost of retaining versus the uncertainty of replacement one could easily ascertain Williams' value at $8,000,000 to $10,000,000 average per season over the next 5 seasons. This is Jerry Hughes level money. With a cap hit of $7,000,000 by cutting Mario in 2016, it makes sense to either trade him, which likely won't happen due to the remaining contract, or to simply renegotiate a long term contract that represents the value he will produce over the next 5 seasons. This is similar to what we did with LeSean McCoy's contract.

[RealityCheck]

There is too much to be gained by simply trading away or cutting both Williams'. They are pure 4-3 players and offer little "effective" versatility in a 3-4. Bradham unfortunately is in the same boat. Since Ryan is here to stay for the next few years minimum, there is zero logic to keeping these guys when they desperately need different player types to tighten up the front seven while extending the younger, on the rise players currently on the roster.

[YoloinOhio]

The defense, same personel since last season, has been questionable all year.

 

How do you go from first to worst in the sack department?

 

One man is responsible for that, defensive guru and our head coach Rex Ryan. Another, Thurman has been average at playcalling and below average at getting the most out of their skill set.

 

Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda... Imagine if this team was tops in sacks, top 10 in Defense, we could easily be 9-4.

In the playoffs and Rex would be the savior we were looking for.

 

But, no.

 

#1 in penalties, though

it isn't the same personnel -

Gone for all or most of year

Kyle Williams

Aaron Williams

Spikes

Searcy

Wynn

McKelvin

[BarleyNY]

Mario Williams has been a great addition. 42 sacks in 60 games so far. 95 career sacks and only 30 years old. Before we cut anyone lets consider availability and age.

 

It's easy to scapegoat one of the highest paid defenders on the wrong side of their prime, but Mario has lots of tread left on his tires.

 

We are better off if both Kyle & Mario Williams are Buffalo Bills in 2016 & beyond.

 

Consider this...there's a long list of guys who produced well over 50 sacks past the age of 30. Jason Taylor comes to mind. The guy was 6'6'' 255, 40 lbs lighter than Mario, but still managed 59 sacks (age 31 to age 37) his final 7 seasons.

 

I see Mario following in the Julius Peppers mold another guy of similar build. Both are born in January and are 5 years apart. Since the season Peppers turned 31, 2011, Peppers has posted 43.5 sacks the past 5 seasons.

 

In case people are wondering any guy we might draft would be lucky to get 40 to 50 career sacks.

 

The talk on here of, many of whom are advocating "cutting" Mario now while still under contract is short-sighted. When looking at the facts and hard data, the guy will likely produce another 25 sacks by the most conservative of estimates over the remainder of his career. On the high end Mario will likely get 50 sacks.

 

Now is there a need to restructure Mario? Of course. Now is the time to lock him up through age 35, or the 2019 season. Amortizing the cost of retaining versus the uncertainty of replacement one could easily ascertain Williams' value at $8,000,000 to $10,000,000 average per season over the next 5 seasons. This is Jerry Hughes level money. With a cap hit of $7,000,000 by cutting Mario in 2016, it makes sense to either trade him, which likely won't happen due to the remaining contract, or to simply renegotiate a long term contract that represents the value he will produce over the next 5 seasons. This is similar to what we did with LeSean McCoy's contract.

I don't think there's any way Williams agrees to renegotiate a 5 year deal at $8M-$10M per year. His current deal is set to pay him $14.5M ($19.9M cap hit) in 2016 and $14.9M ($16.5M cap hit) in 2017. That's a hell of a pay cut for him. I'm sure he'd rather test the market. There's a big gap in his value in the Bills' scheme versus in a scheme where he's pass rushing more. That disparity might be what leads to him and the Bills parting ways.

Contract details:

http://overthecap.com/player/mario-williams/246

Edited December 17, 2015 by BarleyNY

[papazoid]

NO WAY mario will take a pay cut.

 

NO WAY the bills will extend his deal in any restructure.

 

Mario will play one more year (2016) under his current deal.

 

he will be cut after the 2016 season resulting in a DEAD MONEY charge of $1.6 mil for 2017.

[papazoid]

what rex did to this defense is akin to a new OC for NE deciding to run 40 times and throw 10.

[34-78-83]

Much higher learning curve in Rex's D than Schwartz's " go get em boys " D. Unfortunately in year one that created a set back.

[dave mcbride]

Mario is in all likelihood gone - he has been terrible this year, and he's not likely to improve next season. That's unacceptable for a guy with his salary (as is his "borderline disloyalty," as Peter King put it with regard to his constant public carping about the scheme). The thing is, it was still a pretty good deal for the Bills: they landed him mid-career, and paid him ~$65 million for 4 years. They got two elite seasons from him plus one decently solid one (2012) from him. That's good production overall, and if it's a slight overpay, who cares - the Bills had to spend it on somebody given their low overall salary base. I also don't believe they ever expected this contract to play out to the end.

 

I think it would be the height of stupidity to keep him given his miserable performance this season and his poor fit for the defense, but I won't be surprised if he lands somewhere like the Giants, who can use him as a pass rusher in a 4-3 scheme -- sorta like the Niners' acquisition of Rickey Jackson in 1994 and Chris Doleman in 1996 as well as the Redskins' acquisition of Bruce in 2000. None of those guys were at the top of their game at that point, but they were all still solid assuming they came at the right price. Mario simply isn't the right price for the Bills. A decent second round pick with some quicks and some arm length can easily replace his production this year, and in spades.

Much higher learning curve in Rex's D than Schwartz's " go get em boys " D. Unfortunately in year one that created a set back.

The thing is, I've been watching Mario the last 3-4 games (the ones he has played in, that is), and truth be told, he's barely dropping into coverage at all now - instead, he's basically getting after the QB and failing despite constant one-on-one blocking. He did get a vulture sack against Bradford, but that's only because Bradford failed to realize that the 2 minute warning was going to stop the clock anyway and decided to eat the ball instead of throwing it away.It wasn't an impressive play.

Edited December 17, 2015 by dave mcbride

[dave mcbride]

 

If they let him go, where ever he plays next year he will have a great year.

 

Count on it.

He won't have a great year because he has lost some of his game on the quicks front - that's obvious to any observer - but I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up in a 4-3 scheme and gets 10-11 sacks next season. He won't with the Bills, though, and there's no reason why they should be paying him for non-production. There are a lot of other guys who would be performing better than he is in this scheme. Hughes is 10 times better than him this season.

[dave mcbride]

 

10-11 sacks isn't a great year?

 

I think hes playing through an injury and he's playing in a scheme that doesn't fit his strengths.....

 

I don't understand all the Mario criticism. Who on this defensive line is having a good year???? Go down the line, everyone's numbers are bad thanks to Rex.

Not necessarily if that's all he's doing. Lots of 10-sack seasons aren't great. Mario wasn't great in 2012 (the pressure wasn't consistent, although he was dealing with a hand injury) and Aaron Schoebel was never great regardless of the sack numbers.

 

As for not understanding the criticism, he SUCKS this year. According to Football Outsiders, he is the lowest rated defensive end in the entire NFL. He makes almost no plays. He has 13 tackles this season, for chrissake. As for the others, Hughes is having a very good season, and Dareus has played reasonably well too, making a number of plays on running downs. Kyle Williams was fine before the injury. The sack numbers are down across the board, but that's not the only way to judge play.

 

People don't stay good forever. That shouldn't be hard to understand.

 

Regardless, the Bills shouldn't be spending another $15-20 million on another one of his decline years. They got what they were going to get out of him already. If you want to go down with the ship with this guy, be my guest. I think the departing rats are wiser, however.

Edited December 17, 2015 by dave mcbride

[GG]

Not necessarily if that's all he's doing. Lots of 10-sack seasons aren't great. Mario wasn't great in 2012 (the pressure wasn't consistent, although he was dealing with a hand injury) and Aaron Schoebel was never great regardless of the sack numbers.

 

As for not understanding the criticism, he SUCKS this year. According to Football Outsiders, he is the lowest rated defensive end in the entire NFL. He makes almost no plays. He has 13 tackles this season, for chrissake. As for the others, Hughes is having a very good season, and Dareus has played reasonably well too, making a number of plays on running downs. Kyle Williams was fine before the injury. The sack numbers are down across the board, but that's not the only way to judge play.

 

People don't stay good forever. That shouldn't be hard to understand.

 

Regardless, the Bills shouldn't be spending another $15-20 million on another one of his decline years. They got what they were going to get out of him already. If you want to go down with the ship with this guy, be my guest. I think the departing rats are wiser, however.

 

That saved value will go a long way to getting Wilkerson.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

It feels like he isn't the same guy. His play this year is similar to his last one in Houston.

Not sure what the problem is but his stubbornness to learn a new system is becoming a trend.

How's it stubborn? Who are the superstar DE's Wrecks can claim ever? Wilkerson is on pace to double his average sack total under wrecks this year.

[dave mcbride]

How's it stubborn? Who are the superstar DE's Wrecks can claim ever? Wilkerson is on pace to double his average sack total under wrecks this year.

Wilkerson missed a bunch of games last season and had 10.5 sacks the year before and had a great 2013 overall.

[TallskiWallski83]

Mario left Houston because he didn't feel like a 3-4 defenses utilized his skillset. Well here we are now and the writing is on the wall. Mario has been a solid player for us this year but he is not playing at an elite level or producing at a level on par with what we're paying him. I think the bills and him head their separate ways, Mario is still a good player and I'm sure he'll be successful I whichever team he ends up on but be just doesn't fit what we're trying to do on defense.

 

I also have a feeling Kyle Williams will be on his way out as well.

[CardinalScotts]

rex has used him on guards and it's a match up problem and to Rex's thought helps our defense but he's gonna rack up numbers he's gonna rack up double teams. Mario seems unwilling to take this role verbally complaining...... he "just" wants to rush the passer although I do think he plays hard. That being said I can't bring him back at the salary and have to cut him loose.

it isn't the same personnel -
Gone for all or most of year
Kyle Williams
Aaron Williams
Spikes
Searcy
Wynn
McKelvin

this is a great point

Edited December 17, 2015 by CardinalScotts

[YoloinOhio]

Sal indicated on wgr that there was about a 90 percent chance he isn't back because although he is actually a really good fit for this scheme, he seems unwilling to adapt to it. He said it seems like Mario knows he won't be back because of that and isn't really putting in the effort on the field despite Rex taking the blame for it.

 

IMO whether it's his foot, he has lost a step, or he's not putting forth max effort, he is just not winning his 1:1 matchups and at 31 next year and that contract, it makes no sense to extend him or restructure when that money can be used elsewhere to better shore up the D in other areas in FA and they can take a young pass rusher (there are a lot) in the draft.

Edited December 18, 2015 by YoloinOhio

[Nanker]

Maybe he's shot all the deers in his backyard.

[TheFunPolice]

if he is suffering from Haynesworth disease then let him walk....

 

It's too bad but we don't need guys refusing to buy in

[dave mcbride]

Sal indicated on wgr that there was about a 90 percent chance he isn't back because although he is actually a really good fit for this scheme, he seems unwilling to adapt to it. He said it seems like Mario knows he won't be back because of that and isn't really putting in the effort on the field despite Rex taking the blame for it.

 

IMO whether it's his foot, he has lost a step, or he's not putting forth max effort, he is just not winning his 1:1 matchups and at 31 next year and that contract, it makes no sense to extend him or restructure when that money can be used elsewhere to better shore up the D in other areas in FA and they can take a young pass rusher (there are a lot) in the draft.

Thanks - sounds about right. Rex always takes the blame, which is why players like him.