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Which Teams Draft a QB


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If a team with its long term franchise QB already on the roster winds up with the first overall pick, then some team will go full Redskins or beyond for a QB. It could happen for the second pick too. And if I were the Lions or Ravens and sitting there with a probable franchise QB on the board I'd just pick him and go the Green Bay route.

Edited by BarleyNY
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Outside of Andrew Luck and before him Peyton Manning, there hasn't been a "draft this guy and your team will be instantly good" type of QB. It's all a crap shoot.

 

And even that isn't working out too great for the Colts this year. Everyone that wants Payton or Brady on our team is gonna be waiting a looooong time - you MIGHT get a guy like that with the #1 overall, but you might not and the other option is blind luck (no relation to Andrew) in the later rounds...

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Chargers and Cowboys are both likely to draft quarterbacks as well, to let them sit and develop. The Bears may also be in that category.

Not likely for either in the first IMO.

 

The "bottom line" is that the Bills are 10th in QB rating in the NFL.

The bottom line IMO is wins. Taylor could be the guy for several years, let's hope he is, but, are you comfortable with him followed by a scrap heap QB followed by a 6th round draft pick? Keep the Fitzgibbons years in mind...the mistake then was ignoring the position which left us having to take a QB in the one draft where there wasn't a first rounder available.

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And even that isn't working out too great for the Colts this year. Everyone that wants Payton or Brady on our team is gonna be waiting a looooong time - you MIGHT get a guy like that with the #1 overall, but you might not and the other option is blind luck (no relation to Andrew) in the later rounds...

There really is no such thing as a sure thing QB, imo. College and NFL games are pretty different, and then it's a crap shoot if a young QB will develop in whatever system they're drafted into. The first few years in the NFL are the most important in development, if that gets screwed up, the QB is going to flounder. This whole 'plug a QB in day 1 and expect them to win right away' thing is getting pretty messed up, and I think we're starting to see the results of it.

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The "bottom line" is that the Bills are 10th in QB rating in the NFL.

 

That's really NOT the bottom line. I like the QBR stats to check what my eyes are telling me. Taylor actually ranks 10th in Total QBR, which is good. But the breakdown of the QBR components is where the concern is - and it supports what I see. His legs are a huge asset and compensate for subpar passing. He's 26th in the passing component, which is a big problem. It is a problem that is exacerbated by his size. He's not big enough to make a living running the ball in the NFL. The sample size is small so far and he's new to live NFL action so there certainly could be growth as a passer. It might happen. Or it might not. If I'm the Bills I'm not holding back on other quality QB prospects until I'm sure I have a FQB in Tyrod. And right now I'm a long way from being sure. That's not a knock on him and I don't give up on him, but I don't put all of my eggs in that basket either.

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

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If there is a QB worth taking, go for it. Even if there isn't I think they need to pick somebody. I also hope Pegula takes a hard look at who is in charge of developing QB talent and whether spending more money might help this process. However, what I really think needs to happen is this team needs to really commit to building a dominant offensive line. Because without a good line it doesn't matter who is at QB. A poor offensive line will make even a better than average QB look terrible. If you think this offensive line looks bad now just wait until the offseason when they have to figure out a way to re-sign Glen and Incognito or move on and lose two starters.

Edited by Dr. Fong
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There really is no such thing as a sure thing QB, imo. College and NFL games are pretty different, and then it's a crap shoot if a young QB will develop in whatever system they're drafted into. The first few years in the NFL are the most important in development, if that gets screwed up, the QB is going to flounder. This whole 'plug a QB in day 1 and expect them to win right away' thing is getting pretty messed up, and I think we're starting to see the results of it.

Oh, I totally hear you.

 

But what I don't understand is why the dummies in our FO don't just draft a sure-fire, day 1, plug and play QB!? I mean, that's what I would do! :D

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They should certainly draft a QB, but a 1st-round pick is too valuable to draft solely for need. You draft the best football player, unless you are totally stacked at that position. You can trade down too.

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One good thing it looks like a lot of teams with the worst records so far have QBs on the roster who are supposed to be their franchise and are under guaranteed portion of big contracts or wouldnt want to send the signal they're moving on for fear of the unknown.

Some of these teams will trade back to QB needy teams.

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  • 5 weeks later...

So I thought worth revisiting this given the chatter about whether we should take a QB in the 1st.

 

If the season ended today the Bills would draft 19th. So let's look at who of the 18 above them could be in the QB market:

 

1. Cleveland Browns - YES - if they pick 1st overall they will take a QB and knowing the Browns he will be a bust.

2. San Diego Chargers - NO - think they will be looking for a QB to learn behind Rivers but I see it as a later round developmental guy.

3. Tennessee Titans - NO - They are all in on Mariota. In Mettenberger they might have a guy some of the other needy teams go after rather than look to the draft.

4. Baltimore Ravens - NO - They are set with Joe Flacco and have a lot of other holes.

5. Dallas Cowboys - MAYBE - How banged up is Romo? They are a wildcard to go QB early. I still think it wouldn't be in the first but you never know.

6. San Francisco 49ers - YES - Strong possibility they look to move on from Kaep and Gabbert is not the answer.

7. Detroit Lions - MAYBE - Stafford is playing for his job but he has responded especially since the OC switch. My gut is that they feel he still gives them a better shot than a rookie in 2016.

8. Philadelphia Eagles - YES - Bradford is a FA anyway and he hasn't shown himself to be the answer regardless.

9. Miami Dolphins - NO - They have tied in to Tannehill and have plenty of other holes.

10. Oakland Raiders - NO - Carr is their guy. They will work on improving the lines and the secondary.

11. Jacksonville Jaguars - NO - Bortles is coming on nicely. Keep ugrading that defense and his protection.

12. St Louis Rams - YES - Foles is not the answer and nor is Case Keenum. Could also have a new Head Coach who may wish to start with a new Quarterback.

13. Washington Redskins - NO - So long as Gruden is there they are going to ride Kirk Cousins...... to mediocrity.... it is a mistake but one I think they are determined to make.

14. New Orleans Saints - MAYBE - I still think them moving on from Brees is a long shot but if they completely clear house? Well who knows?

15. Chicago Bears - MAYBE - Having said they definitely would earlier in the season I have softened to a maybe. If one of the top guys slips to them I think they will but don't expect the Bears to reach at QB.

16. New York Jets - YES - Fitz is a FA, Geno is a bust, Bryce Petty is an unknown. However, if they are out of position for one of the top prospects then I suspect they go another position in the 1st.

17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - NO - Famous Jameis is here to stay.

18. Seattle Seahawks - NO - They have a desperate need on the o-line and need to revive their pass rush.

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Ok, so I can't believe that it's here but the bottom line is that this team is going nowhere fast. The whole team is built around a defense and a defensive coach that is not delivering and it's time to go all out for offensive firepower. None of that matters without a QB so as it stands now, which teams are all but guaranteed to draft a QB in the top 12. Here is where the draft order lies as of today and I would predict 3 teams would draft a QB before us. Can the Bills get below KC and Cleveland? I believe so as we need to be able to grab one of the top 2 guys. We play both Houston and KC so at least there will be something to (not) play for and give a little excitement to this loser organization.

 

1. Detroit Lions (1-6) CB

2. Tennessee Titans (1-5) RB

3. Baltimore Ravens (1-5) - Safety

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) OC

5. Houston Texans (2-5) YES for sure QB

6. Cleveland Browns (2-5) YES for sure QB-WR

7. San Diego Chargers (2-5) WR

8. Kansas City Chiefs (2-5) YES- I disagree OT

9. San Francisco 49ers (2-5) YES QB

10. Chicago Bears (2-4) OT

11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4) OT

12. Dallas Cowboys (2-4) Maybe RB

Buffalo-will Taylor ever throw over the middle, and stay healthy? RT- QB-OLB

 

Jets - Is Geno the answer, with a new coaching staff and GM who knows? OLB

 

Denver Is QB Brock Osweiler the answer, who knows? 1-0 so far.OT

 

Washington is Kirk Cousins the answer? QB

 

Philadelphia is Sam Bradford the answer, and will Chip Kelly stay? OG

 

New Orleans Will Sean Payton still be in NO next year, and if not will Drew Brees still be? CB

 

St Louis is Nick Foles the answer with so many injuries? WR

 

 

Six QB's ranked to go in the first or second round

 

Paxton Lynch 1

Jared Goff 1

Connor Cook 1

 

Christian Hackenberg 2

Cason Wentz 2

Cardale Jones 2-3

 

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2016/QB

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