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2014 media projections for Bills


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As much as everyone is hanging this coming season on Manuel, a lot rides on Schwartz defense. I think that the loss of Byrd is being over-exaggerated by a lot of the national types (he made the pro-bowl, likely one of the 2 or 3 guys many of them can name from last years' roster), but Schwatz new scheme has to make the defense better, not slide back, for this team to take the next step up the ladder.

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The Bills won't be worse than 6-10. The team improved everywhere besides for safety; they wont regress by 3 games. Davis has no idea about this team. It is a typical national reporter. I can't logically see a team that improved virtually everywhere winning 1/2 as many games. Their ceiling is about 10-6 & floor 6-10 IMO depending on EJ.

Edited by Kirby Jackson
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My only concern is the schedule.

 

Its brutal. Compare the QBs we played last year vs this year. Its scary.

 

I think 3-13 is not out of the question...but I'd bet no.

 

The first 4 games is the season. At Chicago. Not sure.

 

Than home vs Miami and San Diego. Both are must wins. Than at Fitz and the Texans. We have to start 3-1.

 

Than its at Detroit and home vs Brady. Than home vs Vikings and at the Jets to round out the first half.

 

Best case----I think 5-3 is not insane.

 

Than the next 8:

 

Vs Chiefs (W)

At Miami (L)

Vs Jets (W)

Vs Browns (W)

At Broncos (L)

Vs. Packers (L)

At Raiders (L)

At Patriots (L)

 

 

8-8. There you go.

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Per Nate Davis from USA Today,

Bills 3-13: Sammy Watkins needs time to adapt. So will defense, which lost Jairus Byrd and is changing scheme. Again.

 

Really, are you serious, I cannot wait until the Bills make this dude eat his words. I think this is the year the Bills turn the corner, 10-6 and a Wild card.

You don't say...
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Jay Mohr will always be a legend to me because of this article from 2008 (since removed from Fox Sports, probably for good reason):

 

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/7117630

 

 

This past year my wife and I were dosed at a restaurant. By "dosed" I mean we were drugged. It was a Mexican restaurant that I won't name — but it rhymes with Tel Jurrito. Judging by the way the parking lot of the restaurant was breathing; we both guessed that it was LSD. We both initially panicked. We went home for safety. My wife had a tough time riding it out.

 

I played Madden and it saved my life.

Neither my wife nor I do drugs. Neither one of us knew what an acid trip was like, but on that afternoon in the San Fernando Valley, we found out in a hurry. It started shortly after we paid our bill and tipped 20 percent (always!). We both started to sweat and get nervous. My wife kept asking me if I thought it was hot in the restaurant, I told her yes and then started wondering, "How does she know that it's hot in the restaurant?!"

 

I excused myself and went to the bathroom. Forty minutes later my wife stuck her head in the men's room and asked me if I was okay. Considering I was just sitting on the toilet, fully clothed, taking my pulse over and over again, I quickly surmised that I was not okay.

 

We decided to go to the store on the way home and get something to drink. My wife grabbed a few bottles of Coke Zero and I grabbed a two-liter bottle of Sunkist. I held it toward the heavens and exclaimed, "Look how ORANGE this is!" Mrs. Mohr said, "I don't like it, it's hurting my eyes!" When I yelled back, "I want to swim in it!" we froze, looked each other in the eye and realized we needed to get home as quickly as possible.

 

Not being able to tell the difference between taillights and red lights, I stopped for them both. Three hours into what was normally a 10-minute trip, we pulled into our driveway. My bride decided to crawl into bed and try and read a book.

 

I broke out the Madden '07.

 

I have always heard people who have done a lot of LSD say that you have to "ride the snake" and "don't let the snake ride you." I rode the snake all the way to The Meadowlands where I was the Jets playing at home against the Chiefs. It was a beautiful day for football. I was tripping my face off and the temperature was 52 degrees.

 

As Mike Nugent launched the opening kickoff towards Dante Hall, my wife shouted from the bedroom, "Honey, how do you feel?" My answer was, "GREAT!" And I was. The Chiefs wore red and white and the Jets wore white and green. Shaun Ellis wore number 92 and Kerry Rhodes wore number 25. Just like in real life.

 

A half hour later, I heard from the bedroom, "I am still kind of freaking out!" Not me. I was fine. Four hours into my first acid trip and I had found a safe place ... the Jets' huddle. Everything in this virtual world was just as I desperately needed it.

 

Chad Pennington wore No. 10 and Laveranues Coles caught anything that was near him. All the plays in the playbook were the same as when I wasn't tripping and all the players were just how I remembered them. Adrian Jones was useless for pass blocking. Tight ends worked wonderfully for me in the red zone. And the Chiefs couldn't stop the run against a Pop Warner team.

 

Pennington still had a weak arm and after he threw an interception I slammed my head set down on the ground and began screaming at the assistant coaches around me. As I started to ask Chad what the hell he was thinking, my wife hollered from the other room, 'Honey who are you yelling at?' I didn't really have an answer for her ... I meekly replied, "my coaches" and stared down at my fingers. Then I had a revelation! When you play Madden, your fingers are your coaches! Wow, was I HIGH!

 

For the love of God, please go out and buy your Madden '08 Tuesday. It might save your life. You never know when you might get slipped a mickey and find yourself listening to the Black Crowes, white knuckling a 55-yard field goal attempt as the walls of your house melt around you. I am going to get my Madden tomorrow and I'm suddenly craving enchiladas.

 

EA SPORTS, "Madden. Ride the snake."

 

Best of lucky, Jay Mohr

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Jay Mohr will always be a legend to me because of this article from 2008 (since removed from Fox Sports, probably for good reason):

 

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/7117630

 

 

This past year my wife and I were dosed at a restaurant. By "dosed" I mean we were drugged. It was a Mexican restaurant that I won't name — but it rhymes with Tel Jurrito. Judging by the way the parking lot of the restaurant was breathing; we both guessed that it was LSD. We both initially panicked. We went home for safety. My wife had a tough time riding it out.

 

I played Madden and it saved my life.

Neither my wife nor I do drugs. Neither one of us knew what an acid trip was like, but on that afternoon in the San Fernando Valley, we found out in a hurry. It started shortly after we paid our bill and tipped 20 percent (always!). We both started to sweat and get nervous. My wife kept asking me if I thought it was hot in the restaurant, I told her yes and then started wondering, "How does she know that it's hot in the restaurant?!"

 

I excused myself and went to the bathroom. Forty minutes later my wife stuck her head in the men's room and asked me if I was okay. Considering I was just sitting on the toilet, fully clothed, taking my pulse over and over again, I quickly surmised that I was not okay.

 

We decided to go to the store on the way home and get something to drink. My wife grabbed a few bottles of Coke Zero and I grabbed a two-liter bottle of Sunkist. I held it toward the heavens and exclaimed, "Look how ORANGE this is!" Mrs. Mohr said, "I don't like it, it's hurting my eyes!" When I yelled back, "I want to swim in it!" we froze, looked each other in the eye and realized we needed to get home as quickly as possible.

 

Not being able to tell the difference between taillights and red lights, I stopped for them both. Three hours into what was normally a 10-minute trip, we pulled into our driveway. My bride decided to crawl into bed and try and read a book.

 

I broke out the Madden '07.

 

I have always heard people who have done a lot of LSD say that you have to "ride the snake" and "don't let the snake ride you." I rode the snake all the way to The Meadowlands where I was the Jets playing at home against the Chiefs. It was a beautiful day for football. I was tripping my face off and the temperature was 52 degrees.

 

As Mike Nugent launched the opening kickoff towards Dante Hall, my wife shouted from the bedroom, "Honey, how do you feel?" My answer was, "GREAT!" And I was. The Chiefs wore red and white and the Jets wore white and green. Shaun Ellis wore number 92 and Kerry Rhodes wore number 25. Just like in real life.

 

A half hour later, I heard from the bedroom, "I am still kind of freaking out!" Not me. I was fine. Four hours into my first acid trip and I had found a safe place ... the Jets' huddle. Everything in this virtual world was just as I desperately needed it.

 

Chad Pennington wore No. 10 and Laveranues Coles caught anything that was near him. All the plays in the playbook were the same as when I wasn't tripping and all the players were just how I remembered them. Adrian Jones was useless for pass blocking. Tight ends worked wonderfully for me in the red zone. And the Chiefs couldn't stop the run against a Pop Warner team.

 

Pennington still had a weak arm and after he threw an interception I slammed my head set down on the ground and began screaming at the assistant coaches around me. As I started to ask Chad what the hell he was thinking, my wife hollered from the other room, 'Honey who are you yelling at?' I didn't really have an answer for her ... I meekly replied, "my coaches" and stared down at my fingers. Then I had a revelation! When you play Madden, your fingers are your coaches! Wow, was I HIGH!

 

For the love of God, please go out and buy your Madden '08 Tuesday. It might save your life. You never know when you might get slipped a mickey and find yourself listening to the Black Crowes, white knuckling a 55-yard field goal attempt as the walls of your house melt around you. I am going to get my Madden tomorrow and I'm suddenly craving enchiladas.

 

EA SPORTS, "Madden. Ride the snake."

 

Best of lucky, Jay Mohr

 

Pure gold right there

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Let's see, we have an unproven head coach, an unproven OC, a new DC with a new scheme, a new LB coach, a new QB coach, a new Assistant OC, an unproven QB, maybe as many as 4 new OL making the squad, a bunch of young WRs, a few new starters on defense... Put that in the blender, hit the button, and what do you get? I have no idea. But under the circumstances, I can see why most in the national media are not predicting a winning season. Too many unknowns.

 

And that's why I think this season will be especially fun to watch.

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I went through that article from fivethirtyeight.com you gave and saw the link about pythagorean wins, and was curious so I clicked on that (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=337). In there, it lists a good way to predict wins for the next year, namely "Year N+1 wins =~ 3.93 + .11*(Year N wins) + .34*(Year N Pythag wins) + .06*(Year N AdjPythag wins)" where Pythagorean wins = PF^2.37 / (PF^2.37 + FA^2.37) and Adjusted Pythagorean wins are the average of the calculated pythagorean wins for each game (so that blow outs aren't counted too heavily).

 

Doing all the math, I came out with a predicted 7.29 wins for the coming year, which is essentially what the media is predicting for us, also

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I went through that article from fivethirtyeight.com you gave and saw the link about pythagorean wins, and was curious so I clicked on that (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=337). In there, it lists a good way to predict wins for the next year, namely "Year N+1 wins =~ 3.93 + .11*(Year N wins) + .34*(Year N Pythag wins) + .06*(Year N AdjPythag wins)" where Pythagorean wins = PF^2.37 / (PF^2.37 + FA^2.37) and Adjusted Pythagorean wins are the average of the calculated pythagorean wins for each game (so that blow outs aren't counted too heavily).

 

Doing all the math, I came out with a predicted 7.29 wins for the coming year, which is essentially what the media is predicting for us, also

 

I can't believe it's just that simple!

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However, the ?B position has been just that since JK hung up his cleats. That, and we've fielded some pretty stanky squads that didn't have half the talent that this year's seems to - at least on paper. There are no significant holes save one. And that will not be proven until this season draws to a close. I honestly think that 6-10 is what potty training is to a two year old. You can stick to that if you want, but most people advance to greater achievements quickly in their development.

 

From 1997 this is the stank:

 

6-10

10-6

11-5

8-8 - bye bye Wade

3-13

8-8

6-10 - bye bye Williams-the-hammer

9-7

5-11 - bye bye Kevin Costner

7-9 - hello Tampon 2

7-9

7-9

6-10 - Alas Perry we hardly knew ye

4-12

6-10

6-10 - Fire Chan

6-10 - Dumbo arrives (I can't believe I just said that, but obviously I did... obviously)

 

When you really look back on this list, it's incredible that we fired Wade Phillips. Playoffs two years in a row then one .500 season and he's out. Back before a decade of incompetence our franchise really did demand excellence. If a coach gets us to the playoffs two years in a row again he'll get bare minimum 3 years of missing the playoffs after that before he's canned.

 

Projections for this year? I mean it's safe to stick with all the "experts" and say this has the makings of another 7-9 Bills team. Slightly improved, but still trying to figure out how to win the close ones (of which there are so many). I'll err on the side of hopeless optimism and say 9-7 or 10-6 and we're back in the playoffs. Go Bills.

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