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AFC East Winner or When will Brady decline?


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I am a firm believer that systems the coaches put in have the greatest effect on whether a team is a winning or losing team. It's all the system Belichick has put in place in NE. When they lose players to free agency or injury, other ones step right in to fill the role. Look at last year with Brady and his no name receivers and somehow they make it to the divisional round of the playoffs. I'm not saying that Brady isn't a great QB, but once Brady retires, expect Mallet or whoever to come in and still win. As long as Belichick is there, they are going to be good.

I happen to agree. To me coaching is everything.

 

Look at the year the Patriots lost Brady for the year during the opening game. They still went 11-5 with a QB that hadn't started a football game since high school. That team beat the Buffalo Bills 2x with Jauron leading them.

 

I think the Dolphins got much better with Brandon Albert at LT, and the first round pick at RT. Then Knowshon Moreno at RB.

 

The Jets have a top 5 defense, and still have scrub Geno at QB.

 

so...

 

Patriots

Dolphins

Jets

Bills

 

Not much changes this year IMO, as I have little faith in the current coaching staff.

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I was going to say that BillsFan-4-Ever.

 

The fact is that to win in the NFL you need good coaching, a good Quarterback and good solid depth elsewhere. Every year we see teams with two of those 3 fail. People who want to say it's all coaching, or it's all Brady are mistaken. It's the combination of all 3.

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I do think he's on the decline, but I predict it will be a gradual decline, and I imagine he'll still be top 5 for the next 2-3 years. As others have mentioned, he hasn't taken too bad a beating over the years, he's got great pocket awareness to avoid big hits, and throwing ability is one of the last things to go.

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He didn't decline at all last year. He had no names with no chemistry last year losing Hernandez, Gronk most of the year, and most importantly Welker.

 

I hate the Pats as much as anyone, but Brady is just as good as he was 5 years ago. He'll go another three years easily and he loves to play the game.

 

The sad thing is it will be so tough to beat them as long as Brady is there.

 

The numbers don't support your post.

 

Brady over the last 4 seasons, qb rating 111, 105, 98, 87. Completion percentage 66, 65, 63, 60.

 

The completion percentage is about 10% down from 4 years ago, on a gradual decline. That's about 60 more incomplete passes per season based on a typical Brady average attempts (he throws about 600 passes per season) than he was doing 4 years ago.

 

He misses more than he did. He's definitely declined a little. The unfortunate part is that's like going from amazing to very very very good.

 

Thankfully the Patriots stink at drafting or they'd have even more rings than they already have.

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The Bills look to have a better balance of talent than that of Miami and NY Jets. Jets have a stout defense but a chaotic offense. Miami is has upgraded the talent on the offensive line but glaring weak spots on the rest of the roster. Brady benefits from the genius in the hoodie. Belichick designs the offense to maximize his talent. Tip of the hat to the evil genius because he makes a defense works with spare parts and limited talents. I think this year the Bills have their best chance since 99 to sweep the season series. They have the punch you in the mouth defense that Brady hates to face.

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Wondering what your basis is for this statement?

Many things, and the many mistakes. Retaining the same bad special teams coach while blaming the players for its failure to perform. Then seeking out top special team players because they can't seem to coach them up with this coach.

 

The very predictable play calling on offense, and the Bills OC forcing his players into a specific scheme rather then building an offense that best suits their talents. The poor judgement involved by this coaching staff in regards to several players.

 

Despite the fact that the Bills were the #2 team in the NFL in rushing yards they were one of the worst controlling the line of scrimmage, clock. They were 30th in the NFL in sustaining drives for more then five min, as they had 214 drives, and only 10 of them were longer then five min. #28 in time of possession as the longer you can hold onto the ball the easier they make it for the defense. #29 in 3rd down efficiency 244 attempts, 83 converted =34%.

 

The Bills GM, HC & OC were all NFL rookies last year, and both the HC & OC could improve well enough to win more games. Simply because as with anything the more experience you have at doing something the better you get. Will they become good enough to build a winning team or playoff team? I have my doubts is the basis for my statement.

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Revis was not all that great last year. The injury took away some of his ability to react. He is still good but not the same when he was with the Jets.

 

I will add to this by also pointing out that there's a reason Seattle didn't hang onto Browner. He's a good, physical CB, but he is by no means top-notch.

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Ding!

 

Ding!

 

Ding!

 

Finally someone get it. It's the COACHING! Bill Belichick has owned the Buffalo Bills since Super Bowl XXV. I do not like our coaching staff.

Have you considered therapy ? :nana:

Coaching IS very nearly everything imho. From top to bottom

Edited by 3rdand12
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some one needs to "roll up " on Bill's ankle during a game. Throw his timing off . Then we might distract him long enough to score .

Brady is just too smart and efficient. And Bills is just too smart and ... stuff.

I truly think Bills will have something for them this year.

Let Spikes have his moment in the sun for a game or two this year .

Blount aint got nothin on him or Preston .

This IS the year we handle them .

 

Probably lose to the f'n Fish though because thats Buffaloes Bills Karma at work

Edited by 3rdand12
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Jets defense looks as dominant as the 49ers. Their offensive line still is not that good though. Miami will be in rebuild mode for another two years because their QB is not NFL caliber.

 

As for the Bills it is all on EJ and Schwartz. Spiller will disappoint again but I expect that. If EJ can complete 60-62% of his passes, start 14 or more games, and the O-line stays healthy the offense should be ok. If Schwartz can get 90% of the QB pressure and improve the run defense by 30% or so (Spikes to MLB and Alonso to OLB) then the defense could be special.

 

Tannehill isn't NFL caliber? The sophomore who out dueled Brady week 15?

 

 

 

The numbers don't support your post.

 

Brady over the last 4 seasons, qb rating 111, 105, 98, 87. Completion percentage 66, 65, 63, 60.

 

The completion percentage is about 10% down from 4 years ago, on a gradual decline. That's about 60 more incomplete passes per season based on a typical Brady average attempts (he throws about 600 passes per season) than he was doing 4 years ago.

 

He misses more than he did. He's definitely declined a little. The unfortunate part is that's like going from amazing to very very very good.

 

Thankfully the Patriots stink at drafting or they'd have even more rings than they already have.

 

He's on a decline, but what were his recievers like in the last 4 years? I wouldn't be surprised to see Brady play a bit better this season than last honestly.

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Several other threads are talking about how many games Buffalo will win, playoffs, Vegas odds, etc. And it got me thinking about our division, and the way NE is the usual winner. At some point, that has to end. It just won't go on and on forever, so what would happen to spark that change, that shift in the division? Brady aging out. I hate the guy, but I respect his game. He has been a great QB for the past decade plus. But age has to catch up with him. It always does. The question is if happens this year, the next, or when? I searched and came up with this article. It says 37 is the average age an NFL QB breaks: https://www.profootb...-of-decline-qb/ Tom Brady turns 37 in August.

 

This may sound weird but I wants the Bills to win the division with Brady still around. This way the Bills will earn respect big time.

 

The Pats run will end soon enough, all great runs do.

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This may sound weird but I wants the Bills to win the division with Brady still around. This way the Bills will earn respect big time.

 

The Pats run will end soon enough, all great runs do.

Completely agree. I want to beat the best to be the best

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Revis had an off year because they used him as a Tampa 2 zone corner when his talents are as a shutdown man corner. Browner is a big physical corner who also plays better in a tight man coverage vs a zone.

 

This will free up the LBs and safeties to put more pressure on the QB. Don't forget the D Line will be improved with Wilfork and Kelley returning.

 

 

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Revis was not all that great last year. The injury took away some of his ability to react. He is still good but not the same when he was with the Jets.

 

Completely agree that Revis wasn't the same last year. Aside from the injury, he was in a new system on a new team -- Heck, he was even in a new conference. It will be interesting to see what he does with NE now that he's back facing familiar foes. My guess is he'll be better than last year.

Edited by Felonious Monk
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He's on a decline, but what were his recievers like in the last 4 years? I wouldn't be surprised to see Brady play a bit better this season than last honestly.

 

This. I've never seen a QB do more with less. I'm an avid fantasy football player -- That's the only way I knew the names of New England's receivers last year. The casual NFL fan would struggle to name one (Amendola, Edelman, Thompkins and Dobson are hardly household names). With Gronk out most of the year and the losses of Welker and Hernandez -- It's sickening what the Pats were able accomplish. Few athletes in professional sports are able to make everybody around them better by simply being present. Michael Jordan did it. So does Brady, much as it pains me to write it. I just don't see evidence of a decline yet.

Edited by Felonious Monk
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This. I've never seen a QB do more with less. I'm an avid fantasy football player -- That's the only way I knew the names of New England's receivers last year. The casual NFL fan would struggle to name one (Amendola, Edelman, Thompkins and Dobson are hardly household names). With Gronk out most of the year and the losses of Welker and Hernandez -- It's sickening what the Pats were able accomplish. Few athletes in professional sports are able to make everybody around them better by simply being present. Michael Jordan did it. So does Brady, much as it pains me to write it. I just don't see evidence of a decline yet.

 

Agreed.

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Though I agree(begrudgingly) that Brady is one of the best of all time, there is I think a legitimate question as to whether he has already started his decline.......or if his apparent decline is purely based upon the lesser talent surrounding him.

 

Here are his last 3 seasons in major statistical categories.

2011, 2012, 2013

 

Completion percentage:

65.6, 63.0, 60.5

 

YPG:

327, 302, 271

 

YPA:

8.6, 7.6, 6.9

 

TD percent:

6.4, 5.3, 4.0

 

QBR:

105.6, 98.7, 87.3

 

As one can easily see, there has been a regular and quite dramatic decline in all major categories. Support cast......or Brady declining? I'm thinking we will find out for sure this year.

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I think this is the year things start to change. Both the bills and the jets really helped themselves in the draft and free agency and will be better on both sides of the ball. Both will have young qbs with a year of experience and the expectation to get better. The pats, imo ,did not have a great draft and besides revis, who may only be with them a year, did nothing in FA. Brady, as good as he's been will not got better but will decline as age takes him. I expect both the bills and jets and maybe the dolphins to at least win 1 game each against the pats this year and the pats doing no better then 10-6. Next year things will get worse and they go 8-8. Just my opinion. :D

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Believe the order for me is Pats-Bills-Jets-Phins. Miami just isn't scary to me, they are very run of the mill in talent and will be learning a new offense this year plus a lot of that team is FA acquisitions (lol Knowshon Moreno) I think they struggle bad this year. Bills and NYJ are a toss up, NYJ will field a good D as always but I think if EJ progresses at all we end ahead of them.

 

NY just doesn't have anything on offense that can't be handled. CJ2k isn't what he used to be and the WR's are pedestrian, throw in a little Geno "magic" and boom! Absolutely nothing. I will say I do like the way Bilal Powell plays though.

 

I predict the Pats just secure the AFCE crown at 10-6, Brady's arm strength is declining and once that starts it just gets worse. He is a top 10 QB but not the terror he was.

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This may sound weird but I wants the Bills to win the division with Brady still around. This way the Bills will earn respect big time.

 

The Pats run will end soon enough, all great runs do.

I agree 100 percent with you and DallasMac
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As much as I dislike Brady, he has to be respected for his work ethic and conditioning. There's no way he would have lasted this long without both.

I think it's going to depend on his O-line. If they can keep his knock downs and sacks to a minimum, he'll continue to perform at a high level. But aging is a funny thing in the NFL. A player can go from a high performance level to decline very quickly. It's a long season and the hits on even a well-protected quarterback start to add up.

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Billacheat says Tom Brady made him a better coach - cheating has given him the winning records over the years.

while I can see us loosing to Chicago & Denver - I say we sweep our division 6-0.

 

Once again I predict Brady gets injured this year and misses at least 4 games.

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SI puts Buffalo a solid #4 in the division.

 

http://nfl.si.com/20...14-nfl-draft/2/

 

This guy too:

 

http://nflspinzone.c...wer-rankings/2/

 

I don't mind the disrespect we're getting one bit. I'd rather fly under the radar and shock the hell out of everyone.

 

Unlike any time in the past -- uh -- decade -- I feel we have the talent to win the division this year.

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The Pats are no longer an elite team. But they're still savvy enough to put themselves in position to get the breaks to fall their way. Last year they won 12 games despite never being dominant like the other top tier NFL teams. If a few breaks go the other way, they only win 9 games. That luck will eventually run out. Hopefully it starts now.

 

They made the AFC Title game and basicly were 2 wins away from a Super Bowl ring... Jeah I wouldnt call that elite either... :bag::wallbash:

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They made the AFC Title game and basicly were 2 wins away from a Super Bowl ring... Jeah I wouldnt call that elite either... :bag::wallbash:

2nd best in a weak conference. They're the best in the division until proven otherwise, but...they do have warts.
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Id be shocked if Brady is anything but outstanding this year

 

When he no longer sees the outside rushers and loses his ability to time the throw just right.---to answer the second part of the question.

 

I can understand Buffalo, but San Diego whooped Cincy and went to the second round of the playoffs, but they're 17th overall? After not losing any players? Huh?

 

These SI guys get to the office at three in the morning and stay till nightfall torturing themselves--dissecting every possibility-- splitting every atom of information to provide for us a springtime NFL prediction.

 

God save them.

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Can we just stop with the "Bills with Brady" dialog. That just turns my stomach. There is nothing that would make me happier than flat out defeating NE with their precious Brady. The final game we had against NE last year was a failure because our defense could not stop the run. Brady was under pressure the whole game and could not get anything going through the air. With an improved defense and a competent offense, the Bills knock NE off with ease.

 

It's coming. I can smell it.

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This. I've never seen a QB do more with less. I'm an avid fantasy football player -- That's the only way I knew the names of New England's receivers last year. The casual NFL fan would struggle to name one (Amendola, Edelman, Thompkins and Dobson are hardly household names). With Gronk out most of the year and the losses of Welker and Hernandez -- It's sickening what the Pats were able accomplish. Few athletes in professional sports are able to make everybody around them better by simply being present. Michael Jordan did it. So does Brady, much as it pains me to write it. I just don't see evidence of a decline yet.

 

Indeed, it's mindboggling that he'll very likely go down as perhaps the greatest QB ever given that for much of his career he wasn't gifted with very many highly skilled players to complement him. Had he been surrounded by HOF caliber receivers like Montana and Manning were, Brady likely would be setting QB records that might never be eclipsed.

Edited by Pneumonic
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