Kemp2Warlick Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 From PFF...32 observations..... AFC East Buffalo Bills: Defensive tackle Marcell Dareus has more run stops in 2013 at 21 than he did in 2012 at 17. He did so in less than half the number of snaps (324 to 150). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zow2 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Like what the defense has done. but if they were bordering on elite, they would not have been roasted by Cinci at home. Overall, huge improvement from last season...not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDH Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 (edited) Before they updated the stats with this week's game those numbers were all pretty much ranked in the middle of the NFL. One good game bumped them up and one bad game (like against NO) can bring them crashing down. Â I understand that people want this D to be "elite" but it's just not there yet. They have the talent at most spots and I have confidence in the scheme it's just going to take a little more time for everybody to understand what they're supposed to be doing without thinking about it and just reacting. The last 6 or so games should be very telling. Next year I expect this D to be a monster. Edited October 23, 2013 by MDH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted October 23, 2013 Author Share Posted October 23, 2013 Like what the defense has done. but if they were bordering on elite, they would not have been roasted by Cinci at home. Overall, huge improvement from last season...not even close. Â Again, if you look closer, you will see they got caught on some big plays in that game where Cinci challenged Gilmore to get off blocks and make tackles and he couldn't do it one handed. They also used the Bills aggressiveness against them on a reverse early in the game. I chalk this up to great playcalling by Jon Gruden and great execution by their offense. I read somewhere that Cincinnati had 11 plays that went for 311 yards, but the other 73 went for only 172 yards, which shows something we never saw last year. Even when a team does something unexpected that they haven't shown on film, our D and coaching staff does a tremendous job adjusting to it. In the 4th quarter of that game, when Cincy could have pretty much iced it, the Bills D allowed only 3 first downs, with one coming via a 3rd down penalty, but then promptly forced a 3-and-out all 3 times after the initial first down. Cincy tried to run those quick screens towards the end of the game a few times and were tackled for losses this time instead of going for 35-45 yard gains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smears Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Man, I don't know. When I watch other teams convert numerous third downs on them every Sunday, I'm not seeing anything that looks half-way elite. This is my attitude also. But I feel our offense doesnt help our defense. We are not a balanced team. Marrone has been stressing this. I want a balanced Buffalo Bills team that plays all phases together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Every time I think about the future of this offense, I wonder about how much longer Kyle Williams can maintain his level of play. He's not getting any younger. How many of the top DTs excel into their 30s? I have no idea what the answer is, but I'd expect the wear and tear at that position to be pretty tough as guys cross over to the wrong side of 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Both Football Outsiders and Advanced NFL Stats show the Bills are on the verge of having an elite defense, despite what the yardage/point totals might say.  Football Outsiders has the Bills ranked 6th in Defensive DVOA at -9.4%(negative numbers are good on defense), trailing on Seattle(-22.3), KC(-19.3), Carolina(-14.3), NY Jets(-12.8), and Arizona(-10.0). Bills are ranked 4th in Pass Defense at -9.2, trailing only KC(-32.0), Seattle(-24.9) and Carolina(-11.1). Bills are a little lower in Run Defense ranked 14th at -9.8, which is still pretty good. Without adjusting for strength of schedule and opponent, the Bills actually vault to 4th best in the NFL at (-12.5 total, -13.8 pass(4th) and -10.8 run(11th))  http://www.footballo...m/stats/teamdef  Looking further, the Bills have had the most defensive drives against them in the NFL with 96(average is 78) and have played very well. They rank 8th in average yards given up per drive with 28.04(last year 32.73(26th)). 12th in points per drve with 1.71(2.23(29th)). 10th in turnovers per drive with .156(.112(24th)), 4th in INTs per drive with .125(.067(21st)), 10th in plays per drive with 5.47(5.93(19th)), 9th in time of possession allowed per drive at 2:26(2:40(16th)) and 7th in drive success rate at .655(.727(31st))  http://www.footballo...ivestatsdef2013   Advanced NFL stats has the Bills even higher, ranking them the 5th best defense. In defensive expected points added, the Bills are 5th at -11.5, trailing only KC(-56.1), Seattle(-41.3), Carolina(-27.6), and New England(-21.7). In defensive success rate percentage, the Bills climb to 3rd at 58.2%, trailing only NY Jets(60.8%) and KC(59.5%). Bills are ranked 6th against the run(run expected points added) at -18.4, trailing only NY Jets(-28.6), Tampa Bay(-21.7), Philadelphia(-21.7), Green Bay(-20.1), and Denver(-19.9). Run success rate isn't so great, at 59.3% tying us with Carolina for 14th. Passing success rate ranks us 3rd at 57.4% behind only KC at 60.3% and New England at 59.4%...  Also, individually, NFL stats has Kiko Alonso rated as the best linebacker in the NFL currently by quite a wide margin, with a massive 1.82 win probablitity added(WPA). The second best linebacker is Levy from Detroit with 1.16. Alonso also has a huge lead in expected points added(EPA) at 50.2 over Levy again in 2nd with 38.1....3rd place in this cateogry? Poz! at 37.9. Alonso also leads in Success Count with 52, placing 5 ahead of Navarro Bowman who has 47.  Mario Williams leads all defensive ends in WPA with 1.23, with Carlos Dunlap of Cincy in 2nd with 1.13. Williams is 10th in EPA with 21.0 and is tied for 16th in Success Count with 19. JJ Watt is the runaway leader in this category with 45.  Kyle Williams leads all defensive tackles with a 1.26 WPA, a wide gap between him and second place Suh with Detroit at 0.87. Marcel Dareus is 4th with 0.80...Suh leads in EPA tho at 28.6, with Kyle placing 3rd behind Suh and Hatcher of Dallas(24.1) with 22.8. Dareus is 9th at 16.3. In success count, Bills have the top 2 defensive tackles in the NFL. Dareus leads with 36 followed by Kyle in 2nd with 32  Unbelievably, the Bills have another player rated as best at his position thus far in Win Probability Added(WPA) and that is Searcy at safety at 0.98, leading Eric Berry of KC who comes in 2nd at 0.91 and Reggie Nelson of Cincy who is 3rd at 0.89. Searcy also leads in expected points added with 30.0, again leading Berry who is in 2nd at 26.1 and Kam Chacellor who is in 3rd at 24.6. Searcy finishes 10th in success count at 20.  The Bills also hav a top 10 appearance at CB, but it is Jim Leonard(0.64), who should be at safety, however, the Bills have 4 of the top 20 at CB WPA with Leonard at 10, McKelvin tied for 12th(0.58), Robey 16th(0.54) and Aaron Williams(0.47)   http://wp.advancednf...om/teampage.php   So to sum it up, across the board in virtually every metric, the Bills are a vastly improved unit, bordering on elite. Last year, the Bills only top 10 player in WPA was Jairus Byrd who ranked 4th. This year, the Bills have 4 out of a possible 5 players leading their positions in the NFL(Williams at DE, Williams at DT, Alonso at LB and Searcy at safety), which is pretty amazing considering two of our best players have barely played in Byrd and Gilmore.  Not only is Alonso the runaway leader for defensive rookie of the year, he is making a strong case that he is the best LB in the NFL this year(not even close based on advanced metrics, he is Peyton Manning like ahead of the next best player at his position currently) and making a case for defensive PLAYER of the year.  Mike Pettine has been a God send to this defense and it cannot be understated how good of a job he has done. To put use your players so well that 4 of them lead their positions on defense in the entire NFL is one of the most amazing things I have seen in a while...  I think most of these stats pass the eye test. The inability to stop the run is frustrating but the defense is clearly playing at a top level.  If Searcy is someone rated high in some advanced stat the advanced stat is flawed. Searcy is a liability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPS Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 They are better. Elite? That might be a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PS 56 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Amazing what a difference a year can make... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Man, I don't know. When I watch other teams convert numerous third downs on them every Sunday, I'm not seeing anything that looks half-way elite. This is a biggie!! The Bills are still doing a shoddy job of stopping the RUN. Miami came into last weeks game with a pedestrian 69 yards rushing per game and they went on to rush for 140 yards.....They were giving up many 3rd and longs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 This is a biggie!! The Bills are still doing a shoddy job of stopping the RUN. Miami came into last weeks game with a pedestrian 69 yards rushing per game and they went on to rush for 140 yards.....They were giving up many 3rd and longs. Â Shoddy? Not hardly. Â You couldn't call them elite, but they're solid. Â To throw in some new and easier to understand stats, they're facing the third-most running plays of any team, 30.6 per game, which must wear them down, but still tied for 13th in YPA allowed at 4.0. That's solid. Tied for 3rd in the league in running TDs allowed, with two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KRT88 Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 the stats might say that but when it's 3rd and 14 on a Sunday afternoon, and you watch an opponent run a 16 yard curl route for a first down...not so much. Â But at 3-4 we really are better than our record, but if we are 3-6 in two who cares. Need to find a way to win one of these next two games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machine gun kelly Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Like what the defense has done. but if they were bordering on elite, they would not have been roasted by Cinci at home. Overall, huge improvement from last season...not even close. Â Roasted? We lost in overtime with an off the street free agent QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Shoddy? Not hardly. Â You couldn't call them elite, but they're solid. Â To throw in some new and easier to understand stats, they're facing the third-most running plays of any team, 30.6 per game, which must wear them down, but still tied for 13th in YPA allowed at 4.0. That's solid. Tied for 3rd in the league in running TDs allowed, with two. Â Isn't that stat proving the point itself. Teams are running more against us, because they are having good success with it. I agree that the team has been pretty stingy in giving up rushing TDs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Â Â Truth. Great post by the OP. This kind of analysis gets more to what's really going on in the game than just YPG, RYPG, PYPG, etc... One of the most telling stats? "Looking further, the Bills have had the most defensive drives against them in the NFL with 96(average is 78)" Â Too many 3 and outs by the O. Gotta move the ball! I think the whole team continues to move in a positive direction, however. GO BILLS! Could be because the bills haven't had any games against bottom 10 defenses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
first_and_ten Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Awesome Post by the OP....this team has potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Awesome Post by the OP....this team has potential The New Orleans Flying Offense will be a good test for these upstart Bills Defense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 All this is great and inspiring but in AFCE's metric we are in 4th out of four, and in the NFL metric we are still floatinf middle of the pack. We are going up but we still have an awful big hill to climb.  Furthermore, its not like Detroit or Carolina are doing anything special. NE and Seattle have great offensives. And KC is about to collapse.  That came off way more negative then I wanted. Ooops  Detroit is tied for 1st and Carolina is 3-1 (with a great shot to go 4-1) since we beat them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 (edited) they need to stop the big plays and shore up the horrible run D (based on the big play) then you could say they are getting there Edited October 24, 2013 by BillsFan-4-Ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keukasmallies Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 On the other hand, the Bills have been "on the verge" since Christ was a midshipman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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