Cotton Fitzsimmons Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Where still soft? Over there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillsForever Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Both Football Outsiders and Advanced NFL Stats show the Bills are on the verge of having an elite defense, despite what the yardage/point totals might say. Football Outsiders has the Bills ranked 6th in Defensive DVOA at -9.4%(negative numbers are good on defense), trailing on Seattle(-22.3), KC(-19.3), Carolina(-14.3), NY Jets(-12.8), and Arizona(-10.0). Bills are ranked 4th in Pass Defense at -9.2, trailing only KC(-32.0), Seattle(-24.9) and Carolina(-11.1). Bills are a little lower in Run Defense ranked 14th at -9.8, which is still pretty good. Without adjusting for strength of schedule and opponent, the Bills actually vault to 4th best in the NFL at (-12.5 total, -13.8 pass(4th) and -10.8 run(11th)) http://www.footballo...m/stats/teamdef Looking further, the Bills have had the most defensive drives against them in the NFL with 96(average is 78) and have played very well. They rank 8th in average yards given up per drive with 28.04(last year 32.73(26th)). 12th in points per drve with 1.71(2.23(29th)). 10th in turnovers per drive with .156(.112(24th)), 4th in INTs per drive with .125(.067(21st)), 10th in plays per drive with 5.47(5.93(19th)), 9th in time of possession allowed per drive at 2:26(2:40(16th)) and 7th in drive success rate at .655(.727(31st)) http://www.footballo...ivestatsdef2013 Advanced NFL stats has the Bills even higher, ranking them the 5th best defense. In defensive expected points added, the Bills are 5th at -11.5, trailing only KC(-56.1), Seattle(-41.3), Carolina(-27.6), and New England(-21.7). In defensive success rate percentage, the Bills climb to 3rd at 58.2%, trailing only NY Jets(60.8%) and KC(59.5%). Bills are ranked 6th against the run(run expected points added) at -18.4, trailing only NY Jets(-28.6), Tampa Bay(-21.7), Philadelphia(-21.7), Green Bay(-20.1), and Denver(-19.9). Run success rate isn't so great, at 59.3% tying us with Carolina for 14th. Passing success rate ranks us 3rd at 57.4% behind only KC at 60.3% and New England at 59.4%... Also, individually, NFL stats has Kiko Alonso rated as the best linebacker in the NFL currently by quite a wide margin, with a massive 1.82 win probablitity added(WPA). The second best linebacker is Levy from Detroit with 1.16. Alonso also has a huge lead in expected points added(EPA) at 50.2 over Levy again in 2nd with 38.1....3rd place in this cateogry? Poz! at 37.9. Alonso also leads in Success Count with 52, placing 5 ahead of Navarro Bowman who has 47. Mario Williams leads all defensive ends in WPA with 1.23, with Carlos Dunlap of Cincy in 2nd with 1.13. Williams is 10th in EPA with 21.0 and is tied for 16th in Success Count with 19. JJ Watt is the runaway leader in this category with 45. Kyle Williams leads all defensive tackles with a 1.26 WPA, a wide gap between him and second place Suh with Detroit at 0.87. Marcel Dareus is 4th with 0.80...Suh leads in EPA tho at 28.6, with Kyle placing 3rd behind Suh and Hatcher of Dallas(24.1) with 22.8. Dareus is 9th at 16.3. In success count, Bills have the top 2 defensive tackles in the NFL. Dareus leads with 36 followed by Kyle in 2nd with 32 Unbelievably, the Bills have another player rated as best at his position thus far in Win Probability Added(WPA) and that is Searcy at safety at 0.98, leading Eric Berry of KC who comes in 2nd at 0.91 and Reggie Nelson of Cincy who is 3rd at 0.89. Searcy also leads in expected points added with 30.0, again leading Berry who is in 2nd at 26.1 and Kam Chacellor who is in 3rd at 24.6. Searcy finishes 10th in success count at 20. The Bills also hav a top 10 appearance at CB, but it is Jim Leonard(0.64), who should be at safety, however, the Bills have 4 of the top 20 at CB WPA with Leonard at 10, McKelvin tied for 12th(0.58), Robey 16th(0.54) and Aaron Williams(0.47) http://wp.advancednf...om/teampage.php So to sum it up, across the board in virtually every metric, the Bills are a vastly improved unit, bordering on elite. Last year, the Bills only top 10 player in WPA was Jairus Byrd who ranked 4th. This year, the Bills have 4 out of a possible 5 players leading their positions in the NFL(Williams at DE, Williams at DT, Alonso at LB and Searcy at safety), which is pretty amazing considering two of our best players have barely played in Byrd and Gilmore. Not only is Alonso the runaway leader for defensive rookie of the year, he is making a strong case that he is the best LB in the NFL this year(not even close based on advanced metrics, he is Peyton Manning like ahead of the next best player at his position currently) and making a case for defensive PLAYER of the year. Mike Pettine has been a God send to this defense and it cannot be understated how good of a job he has done. To put use your players so well that 4 of them lead their positions on defense in the entire NFL is one of the most amazing things I have seen in a while... Very good job OP. Your analysis of the data was spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Both Football Outsiders and Advanced NFL Stats show the Bills are on the verge of having an elite defense, despite what the yardage/point totals might say. Football Outsiders has the Bills ranked 6th in Defensive DVOA at -9.4%(negative numbers are good on defense), trailing on Seattle(-22.3), KC(-19.3), Carolina(-14.3), NY Jets(-12.8), and Arizona(-10.0). Bills are ranked 4th in Pass Defense at -9.2, trailing only KC(-32.0), Seattle(-24.9) and Carolina(-11.1). Bills are a little lower in Run Defense ranked 14th at -9.8, which is still pretty good. Without adjusting for strength of schedule and opponent, the Bills actually vault to 4th best in the NFL at (-12.5 total, -13.8 pass(4th) and -10.8 run(11th)) http://www.footballo...m/stats/teamdef Looking further, the Bills have had the most defensive drives against them in the NFL with 96(average is 78) and have played very well. They rank 8th in average yards given up per drive with 28.04(last year 32.73(26th)). 12th in points per drve with 1.71(2.23(29th)). 10th in turnovers per drive with .156(.112(24th)), 4th in INTs per drive with .125(.067(21st)), 10th in plays per drive with 5.47(5.93(19th)), 9th in time of possession allowed per drive at 2:26(2:40(16th)) and 7th in drive success rate at .655(.727(31st)) http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsdef2013 Advanced NFL stats has the Bills even higher, ranking them the 5th best defense. In defensive expected points added, the Bills are 5th at -11.5, trailing only KC(-56.1), Seattle(-41.3), Carolina(-27.6), and New England(-21.7). In defensive success rate percentage, the Bills climb to 3rd at 58.2%, trailing only NY Jets(60.8%) and KC(59.5%). Bills are ranked 6th against the run(run expected points added) at -18.4, trailing only NY Jets(-28.6), Tampa Bay(-21.7), Philadelphia(-21.7), Green Bay(-20.1), and Denver(-19.9). Run success rate isn't so great, at 59.3% tying us with Carolina for 14th. Passing success rate ranks us 3rd at 57.4% behind only KC at 60.3% and New England at 59.4%... Also, individually, NFL stats has Kiko Alonso rated as the best linebacker in the NFL currently by quite a wide margin, with a massive 1.82 win probablitity added(WPA). The second best linebacker is Levy from Detroit with 1.16. Alonso also has a huge lead in expected points added(EPA) at 50.2 over Levy again in 2nd with 38.1....3rd place in this cateogry? Poz! at 37.9. Alonso also leads in Success Count with 52, placing 5 ahead of Navarro Bowman who has 47. Mario Williams leads all defensive ends in WPA with 1.23, with Carlos Dunlap of Cincy in 2nd with 1.13. Williams is 10th in EPA with 21.0 and is tied for 16th in Success Count with 19. JJ Watt is the runaway leader in this category with 45. Kyle Williams leads all defensive tackles with a 1.26 WPA, a wide gap between him and second place Suh with Detroit at 0.87. Marcel Dareus is 4th with 0.80...Suh leads in EPA tho at 28.6, with Kyle placing 3rd behind Suh and Hatcher of Dallas(24.1) with 22.8. Dareus is 9th at 16.3. In success count, Bills have the top 2 defensive tackles in the NFL. Dareus leads with 36 followed by Kyle in 2nd with 32 Unbelievably, the Bills have another player rated as best at his position thus far in Win Probability Added(WPA) and that is Searcy at safety at 0.98, leading Eric Berry of KC who comes in 2nd at 0.91 and Reggie Nelson of Cincy who is 3rd at 0.89. Searcy also leads in expected points added with 30.0, again leading Berry who is in 2nd at 26.1 and Kam Chacellor who is in 3rd at 24.6. Searcy finishes 10th in success count at 20. The Bills also hav a top 10 appearance at CB, but it is Jim Leonard(0.64), who should be at safety, however, the Bills have 4 of the top 20 at CB WPA with Leonard at 10, McKelvin tied for 12th(0.58), Robey 16th(0.54) and Aaron Williams(0.47) http://wp.advancednf...om/teampage.php So to sum it up, across the board in virtually every metric, the Bills are a vastly improved unit, bordering on elite. Last year, the Bills only top 10 player in WPA was Jairus Byrd who ranked 4th. This year, the Bills have 4 out of a possible 5 players leading their positions in the NFL(Williams at DE, Williams at DT, Alonso at LB and Searcy at safety), which is pretty amazing considering two of our best players have barely played in Byrd and Gilmore. Not only is Alonso the runaway leader for defensive rookie of the year, he is making a strong case that he is the best LB in the NFL this year(not even close based on advanced metrics, he is Peyton Manning like ahead of the next best player at his position currently) and making a case for defensive PLAYER of the year. Mike Pettine has been a God send to this defense and it cannot be understated how good of a job he has done. To put use your players so well that 4 of them lead their positions on defense in the entire NFL is one of the most amazing things I have seen in a while... Was this produced by Russ's robust Analytics department? You know if you cant win rig the stats to say you should be??? Just joking. What a difference a coach and a draft makes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nitro Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Good job and post. The defense has, when healthy, shown to be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 If the secondary gets healthy and plays better I think they might only be a piece or two (Depending on what they do with Byrd) away from having an elite top 5 defense. The secondary needs another piece or two and maybe the front seven needs another piece. But its coming together quickly for sure. Sacks and turnovers are key in the modern defensive game and the Bills are excelling at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 If the secondary gets healthy and plays better I think they might only be a piece or two (Depending on what they do with Byrd) away from having an elite top 5 defense. The secondary needs another piece or two and maybe the front seven needs another piece. But its coming together quickly for sure. Sacks and turnovers are key in the modern defensive game and the Bills are excelling at that. Pressure and Stopping the Run are the foremost hallmark of a great defense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Front Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 This defense allows too many points for it to be considered elite. No way in hell is Searcy the top safety in the league. I would say that these advanced stats are flawed as Searcy's play is somewhat awful at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 This defense allows too many points for it to be considered elite. No way in hell is Searcy the top safety in the league. I would say that these advanced stats are flawed as Searcy's play is somewhat awful at times. I agree...though their redzone defense has been fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted October 25, 2013 Author Share Posted October 25, 2013 This defense allows too many points for it to be considered elite. No way in hell is Searcy the top safety in the league. I would say that these advanced stats are flawed as Searcy's play is somewhat awful at times. I think the fumble return for TD against New England probably factors highly in this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thurst44 Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 (edited) Every time I think about the future of this offense, I wonder about how much longer Kyle Williams can maintain his level of play. He's not getting any younger. How many of the top DTs excel into their 30s? I have no idea what the answer is, but I'd expect the wear and tear at that position to be pretty tough as guys cross over to the wrong side of 30. Before you go too too far with this reasoning, consider that this was what was constantly being said about a then-33yo DT named Williams before he went to the Vikings and attended three consecutive Pro Bowls. Not saying that everyone's comparable, but just to be wary of assuming every player has the same expiration date. I'm still a bit peeved about the Bills letting him go. Edited October 25, 2013 by thurst44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
You herd it hear last Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Pettine will be wined and dined in the offseason Even if he does bolt, who's to say we won't get the next great up-and-coming DC? I'm sure they have a plan for just such a contingency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBuff423 Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 I like the improvement of the Defense, but I'm in the category of this team is a "long way off" from the term Elite...I really like the way the Defense has responded to Pettine's game planning and the scheme, but there are some more improvements that need to be made before we can call this Defense "elite"....and I do believe we'll continue to get better and become one of the league's better Defenses, but I think we're a couple of years and a few key players both through the Draft and one or two pieces, see Lawson and Branch, from being considered an NFL Elite Defense...good and getting better, I'm okay with...and truthfully, what I expected... As for Pettine's coaching trajectory, I would expect him to stay around for as long as it takes him to put his stamp on the Defense, which I think is at least one more year and to be able to showcase it in the playoffs, which may be more than one year away, but maybe not....then, there will NFL Head Coaching positions available to him...which only highlights the need to have your next D Coordinator in training, preferrably learning from the current guy so you can have continuity.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewildrabbit Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 (edited) This is a biggie!! The Bills are still doing a shoddy job of stopping the RUN. Miami came into last weeks game with a pedestrian 69 yards rushing per game and they went on to rush for 140 yards.....They were giving up many 3rd and longs. Three kinds of lies! Lies, damned lies, and statistics. On the "verge" of stopping the run is a far cry from actually doing it... Last year it was the pathetic play of the defense due to no LBers, and bad DC, schemes / play calling. This year its the offense with all the stars hurt and rookies at QB. The Bills are 26th in total defense yards allowed, 28th in downs, 26th in passing, 29th in rushing, 26th in receiving #1 in total tackles, #6 in sacks, and the biggest difference is the turnover ratio @ -5.(KC leads the NFL with -11) Are they simply lucky or is Pettine putting players in position to make plays? Anyway, IMO the Buffalo Bills are a few players away from becoming a top defense, and now I have faith that new GM Doug Whaley / Mike Pettine can find those players. Howsabout we revisit this thread after the Bills play the Saints in the superdome, and then play unbeaten KC at home. I fear what the Saints can do to both the Bills offense and defense. Then we might just see Tim Tebow in a BIlls uni in week 10. Edited October 25, 2013 by FeartheLosing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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