Big Turk Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 (edited) Both Football Outsiders and Advanced NFL Stats show the Bills are on the verge of having an elite defense, despite what the yardage/point totals might say. Football Outsiders has the Bills ranked 6th in Defensive DVOA at -9.4%(negative numbers are good on defense), trailing on Seattle(-22.3), KC(-19.3), Carolina(-14.3), NY Jets(-12.8), and Arizona(-10.0). Bills are ranked 4th in Pass Defense at -9.2, trailing only KC(-32.0), Seattle(-24.9) and Carolina(-11.1). Bills are a little lower in Run Defense ranked 14th at -9.8, which is still pretty good. Without adjusting for strength of schedule and opponent, the Bills actually vault to 4th best in the NFL at (-12.5 total, -13.8 pass(4th) and -10.8 run(11th)) http://www.footballo...m/stats/teamdef Looking further, the Bills have had the most defensive drives against them in the NFL with 96(average is 78) and have played very well. They rank 8th in average yards given up per drive with 28.04(last year 32.73(26th)). 12th in points per drve with 1.71(2.23(29th)). 10th in turnovers per drive with .156(.112(24th)), 4th in INTs per drive with .125(.067(21st)), 10th in plays per drive with 5.47(5.93(19th)), 9th in time of possession allowed per drive at 2:26(2:40(16th)) and 7th in drive success rate at .655(.727(31st)) http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsdef2013 Advanced NFL stats has the Bills even higher, ranking them the 5th best defense. In defensive expected points added, the Bills are 5th at -11.5, trailing only KC(-56.1), Seattle(-41.3), Carolina(-27.6), and New England(-21.7). In defensive success rate percentage, the Bills climb to 3rd at 58.2%, trailing only NY Jets(60.8%) and KC(59.5%). Bills are ranked 6th against the run(run expected points added) at -18.4, trailing only NY Jets(-28.6), Tampa Bay(-21.7), Philadelphia(-21.7), Green Bay(-20.1), and Denver(-19.9). Run success rate isn't so great, at 59.3% tying us with Carolina for 14th. Passing success rate ranks us 3rd at 57.4% behind only KC at 60.3% and New England at 59.4%... Also, individually, NFL stats has Kiko Alonso rated as the best linebacker in the NFL currently by quite a wide margin, with a massive 1.82 win probablitity added(WPA). The second best linebacker is Levy from Detroit with 1.16. Alonso also has a huge lead in expected points added(EPA) at 50.2 over Levy again in 2nd with 38.1....3rd place in this cateogry? Poz! at 37.9. Alonso also leads in Success Count with 52, placing 5 ahead of Navarro Bowman who has 47. Mario Williams leads all defensive ends in WPA with 1.23, with Carlos Dunlap of Cincy in 2nd with 1.13. Williams is 10th in EPA with 21.0 and is tied for 16th in Success Count with 19. JJ Watt is the runaway leader in this category with 45. Kyle Williams leads all defensive tackles with a 1.26 WPA, a wide gap between him and second place Suh with Detroit at 0.87. Marcel Dareus is 4th with 0.80...Suh leads in EPA tho at 28.6, with Kyle placing 3rd behind Suh and Hatcher of Dallas(24.1) with 22.8. Dareus is 9th at 16.3. In success count, Bills have the top 2 defensive tackles in the NFL. Dareus leads with 36 followed by Kyle in 2nd with 32 Unbelievably, the Bills have another player rated as best at his position thus far in Win Probability Added(WPA) and that is Searcy at safety at 0.98, leading Eric Berry of KC who comes in 2nd at 0.91 and Reggie Nelson of Cincy who is 3rd at 0.89. Searcy also leads in expected points added with 30.0, again leading Berry who is in 2nd at 26.1 and Kam Chacellor who is in 3rd at 24.6. Searcy finishes 10th in success count at 20. The Bills also hav a top 10 appearance at CB, but it is Jim Leonard(0.64), who should be at safety, however, the Bills have 4 of the top 20 at CB WPA with Leonard at 10, McKelvin tied for 12th(0.58), Robey 16th(0.54) and Aaron Williams(0.47) http://wp.advancednf...om/teampage.php So to sum it up, across the board in virtually every metric, the Bills are a vastly improved unit, bordering on elite. Last year, the Bills only top 10 player in WPA was Jairus Byrd who ranked 4th. This year, the Bills have 4 out of a possible 5 players leading their positions in the NFL(Williams at DE, Williams at DT, Alonso at LB and Searcy at safety), which is pretty amazing considering two of our best players have barely played in Byrd and Gilmore. Not only is Alonso the runaway leader for defensive rookie of the year, he is making a strong case that he is the best LB in the NFL this year(not even close based on advanced metrics, he is Peyton Manning like ahead of the next best player at his position currently) and making a case for defensive PLAYER of the year. Mike Pettine has been a God send to this defense and it cannot be understated how good of a job he has done. To put use your players so well that 4 of them lead their positions on defense in the entire NFL is one of the most amazing things I have seen in a while... Edited October 23, 2013 by matter2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 (edited) Wow. Edited October 23, 2013 by Peter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackFergy Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Awesome stats and analysis. Reassuring to know this. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 (edited) All this is great and inspiring but in AFCE's metric we are in 4th out of four, and in the NFL metric we are still floatinf middle of the pack. We are going up but we still have an awful big hill to climb. Furthermore, its not like Detroit or Carolina are doing anything special. NE and Seattle have great offensives. And KC is about to collapse. That came off way more negative then I wanted. Ooops Edited October 23, 2013 by jboyst62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazed and Amuzed Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 but...but...but Mario only plays well 3 times a year and we've been getting lucky with all of our turnovers and Alonso gets swallowed up by blockers and Kyle Williams is old and Dareus is a bust!!!! If Football Outsiders were astute as the people on this board they would see these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted October 23, 2013 Author Share Posted October 23, 2013 All this is great and inspiring but in AFCE's metric we are in 4th out of four, and in the NFL metric we are still floatinf middle of the pack. We are going up but we still have an awful big hill to climb. Furthermore, its not like Detroit or Carolina are doing anything special. NE and Seattle have great offensives. And KC is about to collapse. That came off way more negative then I wanted. Ooops The flip side is our offense is rated pretty low. So when(hopefully when, not if) they get up to speed, we are going to really start going places. The D has been steadily improving and by the end of the year we might be the best D in the NFL or top 3...if the O can get its act together and even be middle of the pack instead of 25th or 26th we are going to be in the thick of the playoff hunt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Front Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Man, I don't know. When I watch other teams convert numerous third downs on them every Sunday, I'm not seeing anything that looks half-way elite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Man, I don't know. When I watch other teams convert numerous third downs on them every Sunday, I'm not seeing anything that looks half-way elite. You mean like when Miami went zero for their first seven on third down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackFergy Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 All this is great and inspiring but in AFCE's metric we are in 4th out of four, and in the NFL metric we are still floatinf middle of the pack. We are going up but we still have an awful big hill to climb. Furthermore, its not like Detroit or Carolina are doing anything special. NE and Seattle have great offensives. And KC is about to collapse. That came off way more negative then I wanted. Ooops Buzzkill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsBytheBay Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Defense is fast off the field in the first quarter. After that, I've noticed its directly linked to the number of first downs the offense gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 BTW: we're ranked 16th in opponent's third down conversion percentage so... http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/downs/sort/thirdDownConvPct/position/defense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted October 23, 2013 Author Share Posted October 23, 2013 Man, I don't know. When I watch other teams convert numerous third downs on them every Sunday, I'm not seeing anything that looks half-way elite. They have had the most drives against them, the most plays against them and the most 3rd down attempts against them in the NFL. They have steadily improved since the beginning of the year on 3rd down, moving up to 16th right now at 38%, 1 percent away from being tied for 12th. When you look at just the number its not that impressive, but when you look closer and see just how much they are on the field and what they are doing it becomes a lot more impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthtobrint Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 I would think most people that have watched the Bills' games have noticed this. The defense has played very well and only has poor volume stats against them due to the offense not sustaining drives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bananathumb Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Very informative post, matter. Thanks. Couple things: 1. it confirms what I've been seeing out of Searcy. He's pretty good. (I'd play him and Byrd and not #23) 2. We all knew it, but this makes Wannstadt look even more clueless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jr1 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Pettine will be wined and dined in the offseason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clearwater cadet Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 There still soft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 There still soft. Where still soft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Greg Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 The flip side is our offense is rated pretty low. So when(hopefully when, not if) they get up to speed, we are going to really start going places. The D has been steadily improving and by the end of the year we might be the best D in the NFL or top 3...if the O can get its act together and even be middle of the pack instead of 25th or 26th we are going to be in the thick of the playoff hunt... Truth. Great post by the OP. This kind of analysis gets more to what's really going on in the game than just YPG, RYPG, PYPG, etc... One of the most telling stats? "Looking further, the Bills have had the most defensive drives against them in the NFL with 96(average is 78)" Too many 3 and outs by the O. Gotta move the ball! I think the whole team continues to move in a positive direction, however. GO BILLS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 (edited) Very informative post, matter. Thanks. Couple things: 1. it confirms what I've been seeing out of Searcy. He's pretty good. (I'd play him and Byrd and not #23) 2. We all knew it, but this makes Wannstadt look even more clueless. We play of 3 safety sets nowadays. I'd rather have AW than Leonard. Thanks for the post OP. very informative. Edited October 23, 2013 by NewEra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lt. Dan's Revenge Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Thanks for that. OP. It obviously took some time and it's surely appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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