Jump to content

Don't trade back, take HIM at 8


Virgil

Recommended Posts

Disclaimer: This has nothing to do with who I want the Bills to take or who I think they will take.

 

With the way the teams selecting order changes from round to round, where teams like the Jets pick behind us in round 1 and ahead of us in round 2, I believe there will definitely be a chess match being played. Also, the transparency of our needs (thanks buddy) doesn't help.

 

Let's say we want a qb not named Smith or Barkley. The number 8 pick rolls around and most people's wet dream comes true and we get an offer to trade back. Yes, we get more picks. However, now taking that qb isn't as far fetched and other teams eyeing that player now know exactly where to trade to grab him. Imagine trading out of 8 to 23 and planning to take a qb. Then the jets jump in front of us at 22 and steal him. Now what?

 

I genuinely believe that we need to take whoever that we are interested at 8. Yes, it will be a reach. But I don't think we have to worry about someone jumping ahead of us to grab them. And if we stay put and wait until our second pick, it's just too much of a gamble with way too many variables to think we could get them. Look at where Ponder went a few years back as an example.

 

Now, if there really isn't a guy we are zoned in on, then it's a moot point. There is a part of me that thinks they have broken down a top 3 at the need positions and will take whoever is available when they pick and be equally happy doing it, but what do I know.

 

But again, if they don't, I think trading back can only hurt us.

 

*side note, does anyone think that teams will let other teams know who is trying to trade with them? For example, would the Packers tell the jets "hey, the bills just tried to trade for our pick. If you want your guy, yo no better jump in there"

 

Second disclaimer: I'm using the jets as an example and don't claim to have any idea what their plans are

Edited by Derek in Va
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree and I think they are going to pull the trigger on their highest rated QB at 8. I believe it will be either Nassib or Barkley even if Geno is on the board.

 

I also agree except I have a gut feeling it'll be Manuel. I've liked him the best of the prospects for a while, and I don't think he'll be there in the second as I had initially been hoping.

 

Like the OP, I'm scared the Jets or someone else would take him (or whoever the Bills like) before the Bills get another chance, be it in the second or in a trade back scenario.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Agree. The Bills do not have many picks to fill all the holes and also would not want to give up next years 1st Rd. They will pick their QB in Rd 1 and most likely it will be Barkley.

 

Barkley does not ave the arm strength needed for Buffalo weather. I am not sure any of this draft class really has that plus the accuracy needed in the NFL. If they take a QB at 8 likely to grab Nassib. However, my guess is that they don't take a QB in this spot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I disagree. I don't think that you should ever reach on a player (especially a QB). That is the 1 position that you want as little risk as possible. Being wrong at QB is much worse than being wrong with someone like Maybin. What do 2 of the top 3 teams drafting have in common? They were both wrong with top 10 QBs in the last handful of years. The Jags and Raiders are in terrible positions because of it. I would rather trade back or wait until later. I think that next years class is safer. If you are wrong with a 2nd rounder you would not shy away from a 1st the next year (Carolina just did it). If you are wrong at 8 the guy is going to get at least 2 seasons and we miss out on next years group.

Edited by Kirby Jackson
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think they like Geno even a little I think its Nassib or Barkley, if they could slide back to 14-19 and add a pick I would do it

 

I think fans here who believe that the Bills want either Nassib or Barkley are mistaken. The NFL is drastically moving towards mobile, athletic QBs. Nassib and Barkley are both great guys, smart guys and their skills were fine at the college level. But their games just do not translate to the next level. At least, not at the successful franchise QB or even long term starter level. I think the Bills want either Smith, Manuel or Scott. They are closest to the Wilson, RGIII, Kaepernick style of play that will dominate the league going forward.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think fans here who believe that the Bills want either Nassib or Barkley are mistaken. The NFL is drastically moving towards mobile, athletic QBs. Nassib and Barkley are both great guys, smart guys and their skills were fine at the college level. But their games just do not translate to the next level. At least, not at the successful franchise QB or even long term starter level. I think the Bills want either Smith, Manuel or Scott. They are closest to the Wilson, RGIII, Kaepernick style of play that will dominate the league going forward.

 

I hope so, since I've posted in this thread yesterday, I've changed my mind and think Buddy and Whaley seem sold on Barkley, not so much on Manuel. I totally agree with you though and I like Manuel the best out of the prospects available, maybe even more than Geno whom I doubt will be available.

 

If you watch the pre-draft luncheon, they have good things to say about Barkley like, "he's been doing it on a big stage for a long time," "knows how to get the ball to his playmakers," "before his injury he was #1 on everyone's board," and on arm strength Whaley basically said, "Joe Montana didn't have a cannon, so what?"

 

Meanwhile, when asked about Manuel, Buddy says "he's got an arm, but is inconsistent," "Well, I've seen him make NFL throws.... at Florida State," and even went so far as to call the read-option movement a "fad," before backtracking and clarifying that in any case a "QB has to win with his arm, not his legs."

 

Taken at face value, those statements seem to indicate they don't really like Manuel and looooove Barkley. Keep in mind those aren't *exact* quotes but close enough and don't alter the meaning. Watch for yourself: http://www.buffalobills.com/media-center/videos/2013_Bills_Draft_Luncheon_Press_Conference/64777a4d-6fe9-4806-adea-f4dff890bd41 They start talking about Barkley around the 25 minute mark and then Manuel right after.

 

But could it all be a smokescreen? After Buddy's responses on Manuel, he touches his nose. Is it a subconscious tell? YOU BE THE JUDGE :lol:

 

V9vNkTj.jpg

Edited by uncle flap
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I disagree. I don't think that you should ever reach on a player (especially a QB). That is the 1 position that you want as little risk as possible. Being wrong at QB is much worse than being wrong with someone like Maybin. What do 2 of the top 3 teams drafting have in common? They were both wrong with top 10 QBs in the last handful of years. The Jags and Raiders are in terrible positions because of it. I would rather trade back or wait until later. I think that next years class is safer. If you are wrong with a 2nd rounder you would not shy away from a 1st the next year (Carolina just did it). If you are wrong at 8 the guy is going to get at least 2 seasons and we miss out on next years group.

 

you'll never get a Qb that way...if you keep waiting till the next year because you let your QB of choice pass by to another team, you'll always be looking and never getting...that's exactly what happened last year when Nix watched 2 or 3 QB's go earlier then he anticipated..

 

 

I think fans here who believe that the Bills want either Nassib or Barkley are mistaken. The NFL is drastically moving towards mobile, athletic QBs. Nassib and Barkley are both great guys, smart guys and their skills were fine at the college level. But their games just do not translate to the next level. At least, not at the successful franchise QB or even long term starter level. I think the Bills want either Smith, Manuel or Scott. They are closest to the Wilson, RGIII, Kaepernick style of play that will dominate the league going forward.

 

that style of QB play is not what the team is going for...a lot of teams(IMO) believe this new QB style is a fad...I've heard a couple interviews that say they don't believe this system will be around for to long...kinda like the wildcat...

 

 

 

@ Derek in VA - since you brought up the Jets I'll stay with them here...the Jets today have given D. Revis permission to go to the Bucs and interview and take physicals and such, which most likely means he will be traded...that will most likely give the Jets a second 1st round pick giving them the #9 and #13...going with Jets needs, they should grab best pass-rusher at #9 and then use #13 on CB Rhodes if hes still there to replace Revis...that gives them #40? to get a QB right before Bills pick...that's 3 possible picks to grab a QB b4 Bills if they wait till rd 2...most likely Jets will grab Manuel in rd 2...add in the fact that a lot of ppl are saying that the Jags and maybe Raiders will also go for a QB in rd 2 also...if that happens, that means 3 of the top QB's will be gone b4 Bills pick in rd 2...I just don't see any way they can't use #8 on their QB of choice...they need to get one of the top 3 QB's this year and he doesn't work out then we can still get another next year...I don't see a trade down with the Vikings and getting the #23 and extra picks changing any of that scenario with the Jets...either way both teams will most likely have a Qb by the end of rd 2...only real difference that changes things is which team wants that one QB the most and thinks the other team will steal him first...my opinion anyways.

 

I hope so, since I've posted in this thread yesterday, I've changed my mind and think Buddy and Whaley seem sold on Barkley, not so much on Manuel. I totally agree with you though and I like Manuel the best out of the prospects available, maybe even more than Geno whom I doubt will be available.

 

If you watch the pre-draft luncheon, they have good things to say about Barkley like, "he's been doing it on a big stage for a long time," "knows how to get the ball to his playmakers," "before his injury he was #1 on everyone's board," and on arm strength Whaley basically said, "Joe Montana didn't have a cannon, so what?"

 

Meanwhile, when asked about Manuel, Buddy says "he's got an arm, but is inconsistent," "Well, I've seen him make NFL throws.... at Florida State," and even went so far as to call the read-option movement a "fad," before backtracking and clarifying that in any case a "QB has to win with his arm, not his legs."

 

Taken at face value, those statements seem to indicate they don't really like Manuel and looooove Barkley. Keep in mind those aren't *exact* quotes but close enough and don't alter the meaning. Watch for yourself: http://www.buffalobi...ea-f4dff890bd41 They start talking about Barkley around the 25 minute mark and then Manuel right after.

 

But could it all be a smokescreen? After Buddy's responses on Manuel, he touches his nose. Is it a subconscious tell? YOU BE THE JUDGE :lol:

 

I agree...watching the tape, you can see the body language of Nix when asked about Barkley and he looks all giddy when he's talking about him...and all " yea whatever" when talking about Manuel

Edited by Tsaikotic
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

you'll never get a Qb that way...if you keep waiting till the next year because you let your QB of choice pass by to another team, you'll always be looking and never getting...that's exactly what happened last year when Nix watched 2 or 3 QB's go earlier then he anticipated..

 

 

If you have to trade ahead of the teams in the early 2nd so be it. You don't take the 50th best talent at 8 at the most important position. At 8 you are stuck with them for multiple seasons even if they are terrible. If you get them later (even in the 2nd) you do not feel as married to them. I do not trust this QB class. I do not feel that we will be missing out on our guy. I think 2-3 of these guys will end up as good starters but I have no idea which ones. I don't want the next Blaine Gabbert and I think that you may very well end up with him this year. Give me someone in the 2nd that has just as good a chance (and may even be the same guy that you were taking at 8). If he is not the 1 of the couple that will be good take 1 of the guy's next year that is safer (IMO).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you have to trade ahead of the teams in the early 2nd so be it. You don't take the 50th best talent at 8 at the most important position. At 8 you are stuck with them for multiple seasons even if they are terrible. If you get them later (even in the 2nd) you do not feel as married to them. I do not trust this QB class. I do not feel that we will be missing out on our guy. I think 2-3 of these guys will end up as good starters but I have no idea which ones. I don't want the next Blaine Gabbert and I think that you may very well end up with him this year. Give me someone in the 2nd that has just as good a chance (and may even be the same guy that you were taking at 8). If he is not the 1 of the couple that will be good take 1 of the guy's next year that is safer (IMO).

 

You make good points. I too do not trust this class. If Buffalo picks one and he is not ready to start, how many years will Buffalo invest in getting him start ready, years when Buffalo passes on better QBs in subsequest drafts because the one they picked this years does some things good and looks like he can be develped, but then, never does?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Regarding the concept of rookie QBs being "not ready to start."

 

Most of the guys who are rated at the top are pretty much as ready as they'll ever be. With some you'd like to see a bit more polish but not to the point where you wouldn't ease them in as rookies.

 

A good organization puts a rookie QB in a position to succeed regardless of how raw they are. There are many examples of this.

 

In 2004 Big Ben won NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year although he didn't start the season opener. The Steelers devised an offense for him whereby he only had to read half the field.

 

I would certainly believe that the Bills would draft a QB that they envisioned starting if not on opening day, very soon afterwards.

 

As such I would hope that they would be able to evaluate the rookie QB and if necessary draft another one next year if they see fit to replace him or have him compete with a different prospect.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Take your shot on a QB this year. If he sucks, you're in position to take another one next year. You're nothing in this league without a QB. Keep taking em until you find one

 

The problem is that NO team is using back-to-back 1sts on a QB (especially a top 10). May seem necessary but the reality is it doesn't happen. Jax is still holding out hope for Gabbert in year 3 and he is terrible. If you take a guy at 8 it is a MINIMUM 2 year trial. That's just reality whether we like it or not.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

The problem is that NO team is using back-to-back 1sts on a QB (especially a top 10). May seem necessary but the reality is it doesn't happen. Jax is still holding out hope for Gabbert in year 3 and he is terrible. If you take a guy at 8 it is a MINIMUM 2 year trial. That's just reality whether we like it or not.

 

I don't understand why it has to be that way with the new rookie wage scale.

 

It didn't take me two years to realize Blaine gabbert sucks. If the Qb the bills select this year pulls a Blame Gabbert I wouldn't hesitate to pick another one in rd 1 next season

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think that the last team to pick QBs in the 1st in back to back years was Dallas in the 80's. Carolina took a 2nd and then a 1st. Marrone and Whaley are linking themselves to this guy if they take him at 8. He is going to get more than 1 season. That is the whole reason I don't want a guy at 8.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you have to trade ahead of the teams in the early 2nd so be it. You don't take the 50th best talent at 8 at the most important position. At 8 you are stuck with them for multiple seasons even if they are terrible. If you get them later (even in the 2nd) you do not feel as married to them. I do not trust this QB class. I do not feel that we will be missing out on our guy. I think 2-3 of these guys will end up as good starters but I have no idea which ones. I don't want the next Blaine Gabbert and I think that you may very well end up with him this year. Give me someone in the 2nd that has just as good a chance (and may even be the same guy that you were taking at 8). If he is not the 1 of the couple that will be good take 1 of the guy's next year that is safer (IMO).

 

I have to disagree...I would not want to waste a pick just to trade up in the second to get a guy you could have taken at #8 so you could not "FEEL" married to him...if the guy is a bust and you got him at #8 then you picked bad and lost 1 pick..all be it a first round pick but just a pick..if he ends up good, then nobody remembers where you picked him...but if you give away a 3rd and 5th to move up to get the same guy and he busts you lost your whole draft...if he doesn't bust then you gave away extra picks to get a guy you could have gotten with just 1 pick...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

I have to disagree...I would not want to waste a pick just to trade up in the second to get a guy you could have taken at #8 so you could not "FEEL" married to him...if the guy is a bust and you got him at #8 then you picked bad and lost 1 pick..all be it a first round pick but just a pick..if he ends up good, then nobody remembers where you picked him...but if you give away a 3rd and 5th to move up to get the same guy and he busts you lost your whole draft...if he doesn't bust then you gave away extra picks to get a guy you could have gotten with just 1 pick...

Then I am cool waiting until 41. I like next years class better. If you take a guy at 8 you have him at least 2 years. No team is going to take a guy at 8 and then another 1st next year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think that the last team to pick QBs in the 1st in back to back years was Dallas in the 80's. Carolina took a 2nd and then a 1st. Marrone and Whaley are linking themselves to this guy if they take him at 8. He is going to get more than 1 season. That is the whole reason I don't want a guy at 8.

 

It's true that historically it's been a rare occurrence.

 

On the other hand, with the rookie wage scale, the ever-increasing emphasis on QB, and the increased volatility of NFL HC and GM jobs, I think that the practice of drafting first round QBs in consecutive (or near-consecutive) years will increase.

 

The Gabbert decision last year might lend greater ammo to the idea that the Jags should have entered the QB derby last year.

 

And do you think Jeff Fisher is having any second thoughts about squatting on Sam Bradford instead of trading him and taking Luck or RGIII?

 

How about Weeden in Cleveland? If the new Browns braintrust doesn't like him why wouldn't they draft a QB this year?

 

Like I said it hasn't happened much in the past but I could definitely see it happening more often in the future.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

It's true that historically it's been a rare occurrence.

 

On the other hand, with the rookie wage scale, the ever-increasing emphasis on QB, and the increased volatility of NFL HC and GM jobs, I think that the practice of drafting first round QBs in consecutive (or near-consecutive) years will increase.

 

The Gabbert decision last year might lend greater ammo to the idea that the Jags should have entered the QB derby last year.

 

And do you think Jeff Fisher is having any second thoughts about squatting on Sam Bradford instead of trading him and taking Luck or RGIII?

 

How about Weeden in Cleveland? If the new Browns braintrust doesn't like him why wouldn't they draft a QB this year?

 

Like I said it hasn't happened much in the past but I could definitely see it happening more often in the future.

 

I agree with this. I just don't think that the Bills are going to be the pioneers with something like this. This regime (i am including Whaley) would get killed if their first pick was a failed QB and they turned around and tried again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree with this. I just don't think that the Bills are going to be the pioneers with something like this. This regime (i am including Whaley) would get killed if their first pick was a failed QB and they turned around and tried again.

 

Well hopefully they won't have to try again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree with this. I just don't think that the Bills are going to be the pioneers with something like this. This regime (i am including Whaley) would get killed if their first pick was a failed QB and they turned around and tried again.

 

I agree this regime will be killed for a failed Qb, but I don't think they would be killed for trying again next year...now if they try again and fail and try again and fail..then yes..kill em all and start over from the top.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

But could it all be a smokescreen? After Buddy's responses on Manuel, he touches his nose. Is it a subconscious tell? YOU BE THE JUDGE :lol:

 

V9vNkTj.jpg

 

Great catch!!! :thumbsup:

 

I've never been more convinced it's Manuel than I am now... ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Regarding the concept of rookie QBs being "not ready to start."

 

Most of the guys who are rated at the top are pretty much as ready as they'll ever be. With some you'd like to see a bit more polish but not to the point where you wouldn't ease them in as rookies.

 

A good organization puts a rookie QB in a position to succeed regardless of how raw they are. There are many examples of this.

 

In 2004 Big Ben won NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year although he didn't start the season opener. The Steelers devised an offense for him whereby he only had to read half the field.

 

I would certainly believe that the Bills would draft a QB that they envisioned starting if not on opening day, very soon afterwards.

 

As such I would hope that they would be able to evaluate the rookie QB and if necessary draft another one next year if they see fit to replace him or have him compete with a different prospect.

 

Big Ben had a dominant O-line and the Bus. This suggests to me Buffalo should draft a Guard.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Remember guys Buffalo has the three year cycle. We allow mistakes the first year the second year on losing they spend alot of money for the fan base the 3rd year they look desperate.

So whats another first round mistake in a series.

 

I would suppose that whether we draft any of the guys mentioned including Nassib that they all have a shot.

Thank goodness we have someone backing them up thats name is not Tyler Thigpen.

Go for it Bills. if they cant trade back and or get antsy with the dialogue from trade partners just do IT!

we fans will get on board. we always do because we are Bills Fans.

still going to be a fun draft for us i think.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Take your shot on a QB this year. If he sucks, you're in position to take another one next year. You're nothing in this league without a QB. Keep taking em until you find one

 

If you can't protect that QB, all of the sacks and inaccuate throws he makes creates the impression he is a bad QB. So you draft one again next years and all of the sacks and inaccurate throws he makes causes you to think he's a bad QB. So, you draft one again the following year and all the the sacks...... ??????

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you can't protect that QB, all of the sacks and inaccuate throws he makes creates the impression he is a bad QB. So you draft one again next years and all of the sacks and inaccurate throws he makes causes you to think he's a bad QB. So, you draft one again the following year and all the the sacks...... ??????

Dad this is where the coaches come in and hopefully make the right decisions. was it the line play or was it the qb ?\ can we scheme for each deficiency/ asset and improve ?

For us i really think we have to trust in these new guys to get a good handle on this and make the adjustments in the draft and then udfa etc.

I would be surprised they are sitting on there hands about the guard situation.

By the way we are not talking about Fitzie are we ??

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Didn't read the entire thread - the first several posts were enough. The Bills need a starting caliber QB, but this is a very weak QB draft. I'll be shocked if they waste that valuable # 8 pick on any of the QBs when they know there are lower risk picks that have a far better chance of making an impact. As much as all of you are wishing for a QB, the defense was a greater factor in the won-loss column last year. If there's a LB that looks like a #8 pick, hoping they take him. What good is a rookie QB going to do for a team with so many other needs? And then what if the Bills suck again in 2013 and wind up with a top 7 pick ?(certainly very possible) At that point, they either by-pass a better prospect (assuming next year's class is better, as has been forecast) or they pick that QB in the top 7. If that happens, they've spent 2 years of first round pick on a QB and still have major holes in the receiving corp and defense. I say, take the best prospect that can be an impact player, and hope Kolb or somebody can hold down the fort and the Bills can look for the QB in FA or draft next year. Linebacker would be the smart choice IMO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The one thing that has made me re-think this strategy is if the Bills really do have two different guys they want. Let's say it's Nassib and Barkley. If, by the 8th pick, only Geno has been taken, then I say try to trade back.

 

After the Jets, there really isn't a team that needs a QB after us, and they have way more holes than we do. So, even if they steal a QB from us, we could probably wait until the 32nd pick to grab our guy without much competition.

 

I'm still on the Nassib or Manuel bandwagon, but if they think Barkley is their guy then so be it. I just am concerned with guys from USC and players that were projected as 1st overall, but then couldn't keep that up in the college ranks, so what makes you think he can step up in the NFL?

 

But I don't pretend to know enough about that

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree with the OP. It's because the QB class is so weak that the Bills will pull the trigger at #8. If they wait, the ones they like will all ready be gone by round 2. If any here think the Jets are not jockeying for a QB now that they have 2 1st rounders, you're nuts. They need a QB worse than us and may even try to trade up 1 or 2 spots ahead of Buffalo to get him.

 

OK, maybe they won't trade up, but they do now pose a problem with the extra picks.

Edited by Rockinon
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Barkley does not ave the arm strength needed for Buffalo weather. I am not sure any of this draft class really has that plus the accuracy needed in the NFL. If they take a QB at 8 likely to grab Nassib. However, my guess is that they don't take a QB in this spot.

 

No offense but I hate this knock. This whole Buffalo is a blizzard every game is just wrong. 905 of the Bills games are in good to decent weather. And guess what if the weather is crappy? Most QBs in the world are going to perform crappy. Peyton Manning is awful in bad weather. Would you not take him? Aaron Rodgers had questions about his arm strength. He's pretty decent in GB.

 

And I agree with the great point. I get the "value" point but it's moot with QBs. Would people have complained if we took Wilson or Kaepernick in the 1st rounds of their draft because that's not where Kiper had them rated? If you want to wait on a QB and hope he falls, then you shouldn't draft him because you don't think that strongly on him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I disagree. I don't think that you should ever reach on a player (especially a QB). That is the 1 position that you want as little risk as possible. Being wrong at QB is much worse than being wrong with someone like Maybin. What do 2 of the top 3 teams drafting have in common? They were both wrong with top 10 QBs in the last handful of years. The Jags and Raiders are in terrible positions because of it. I would rather trade back or wait until later. I think that next years class is safer. If you are wrong with a 2nd rounder you would not shy away from a 1st the next year (Carolina just did it). If you are wrong at 8 the guy is going to get at least 2 seasons and we miss out on next years group.

 

I agree with this. I'd rather not take any QB than be wrong this year, esp. with the bevy of QB talent coming out next year. I'd rather stockpile picks in next years draft to move up like the Redskins and take Johnny Football or Bridgewater.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...