UFO Found on Ocean Floor?

[4merper4mer]

12 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/research-reveals-odds-life-evolving-194243028.html

 

New research reveals the odds of life evolving on alien worlds

 

"In Bayesian inference, prior probability distributions always need to be selected," Kipping said. "But a key result here is that when one compares the rare-life versus common-life scenarios, the common-life scenario is always at least nine times more likely than the rare one."

This life-friendly probability distribution is based on the fact that life developed so quickly after Earth's formation. The earliest life forms emerged during the first 300 million years in Earth's history.

Sitcom math but insert an "h" as the second letter.

[Marv's Neighbor]

Not a UFO, it's a Chinese ventilator.

[ICanSleepWhenI'mDead]

17 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/research-reveals-odds-life-evolving-194243028.html

 

New research reveals the odds of life evolving on alien worlds

 

"In Bayesian inference, prior probability distributions always need to be selected," Kipping said. "But a key result here is that when one compares the rare-life versus common-life scenarios, the common-life scenario is always at least nine times more likely than the rare one."

This life-friendly probability distribution is based on the fact that life developed so quickly after Earth's formation. The earliest life forms emerged during the first 300 million years in Earth's history.

Direct quotes from the article you cited:

 

1.  "Bayesian statistical inference uses a set of founding beliefs about a system before predicting probabilities."

 

2.  "But a key result here is that when one compares the rare-life versus common-life scenarios, the common-life scenario is always at least nine times more likely than the rare one."

 

Executive summary - - If your "founding belief" is that life elsewhere in the universe is common, it is much, much more likely that any mathematical model you construct based on that belief will predict (1) a greater chance of life existing elsewhere in the universe, than if (2) your "founding belief" is that life elsewhere in the universe is rare.  Shocking.

 

And as some sort of mathematical wizardry beyond the understanding of average folks with no PhD in astronomy or mathematics, if you adjust your "founding belief" so that you start with the assumption that life is even more common than you first thought, then the mathematical model you construct based on that belief will predict a greater chance of life existing elsewhere in the universe than you first thought.

 

In other news, if you knew absolutely nothing about water but had a founding, speculative belief that it was fairly dry, any mathematical model you constructed to predict the dryness of water would predict greater dryness than if your initial, speculative, founding belief was that water was fairly wet.

 

Speculative garbage in, speculative garbage out.

 

Because the founding belief on which the mathematical model is based is purely speculative, the fancy-sounding model has no predictive value whatsoever.

 

 

[Warcodered]

6 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

Sitcom math but insert an "h" as the second letter.

but scientist math.

[4merper4mer]

6 hours ago, Warcodered said:

but scientist math.

Some scientists are wishfully thinking people too.

 

Exercises like this article set back the human race, if only in a minuscule way.  The sooner we acknowledge we are alone, the sooner we realize what truly needs to be done and then we can start.  Inevitably fruitless searches for something that doesn't exist distract what are often some brilliant and ingenious people.  

Edited May 23, 2020 by 4merper4mer

[LeGOATski]

16 hours ago, ICanSleepWhenI'mDead said:

Direct quotes from the article you cited:

 

1.  "Bayesian statistical inference uses a set of founding beliefs about a system before predicting probabilities."

 

2.  "But a key result here is that when one compares the rare-life versus common-life scenarios, the common-life scenario is always at least nine times more likely than the rare one."

 

Executive summary - - If your "founding belief" is that life elsewhere in the universe is common, it is much, much more likely that any mathematical model you construct based on that belief will predict (1) a greater chance of life existing elsewhere in the universe, than if (2) your "founding belief" is that life elsewhere in the universe is rare.  Shocking.

 

And as some sort of mathematical wizardry beyond the understanding of average folks with no PhD in astronomy or mathematics, if you adjust your "founding belief" so that you start with the assumption that life is even more common than you first thought, then the mathematical model you construct based on that belief will predict a greater chance of life existing elsewhere in the universe than you first thought.

 

In other news, if you knew absolutely nothing about water but had a founding, speculative belief that it was fairly dry, any mathematical model you constructed to predict the dryness of water would predict greater dryness than if your initial, speculative, founding belief was that water was fairly wet.

 

Speculative garbage in, speculative garbage out.

 

Because the founding belief on which the mathematical model is based is purely speculative, the fancy-sounding model has no predictive value whatsoever.

 

 

I think you're simplifying it too much. They're considering known results and calculating the probability. They're not just trying to prove a hypothesis true or false.

 

Like considering hurricane season results:

1. Many hurricanes will form over the mid-Atlantic and most will make landfall on the east coast.

2. Many hurricanes will form over the mid-Atlantic and few will make landfall on the east coast.

3. Few hurricanes will form over the mid-Atlantic and most will make landfall on the east coast.

4. Few hurricanes will form over the mid-Atlantic and few will make landfall on the east coast.

 

Then calculating the probability of those results with your known contributing variables. Then adjusting the probabilities over time as the observed variables change or new variables are discovered.

 

They're not trying to determine if something is true, they're trying to determine the probability of results they know to be true.

 

 

[4merper4mer]

26 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

I think you're simplifying it too much. They're considering known results and calculating the probability. They're not just trying to prove a hypothesis true or false.

 

Like considering hurricane season results:

1. Many hurricanes will form over the mid-Atlantic and most will make landfall on the east coast.

2. Many hurricanes will form over the mid-Atlantic and few will make landfall on the east coast.

3. Few hurricanes will form over the mid-Atlantic and most will make landfall on the east coast.

4. Few hurricanes will form over the mid-Atlantic and few will make landfall on the east coast.

 

Then calculating the probability of those results with your known contributing variables. Then adjusting the probabilities over time as the observed variables change or new variables are discovered.

 

They're not trying to determine if something is true, they're trying to determine the probability of results they know to be true.

 

 

They are leaving out multiple factors that don't support their wished outcome.

[Captain Caveman]

On 5/21/2020 at 5:56 PM, 4merper4mer said:

Sorry for the lack of a link but in the news today are claims of discovery that a parallel universe exists where physic are the opposite and time moves in reverse.

 

Think it through....I won't give you hints......one parallel universe where time runs backwords from ours can't really exist.  There would have to be infinite parallels.  Why?

I have a feeling it has to do with losing against NFC opponents to improve our playoff tiebreaker position.

[4merper4mer]

Any updates on this?

[LeGOATski]

2 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

Any updates on this?

Nah, ET is steering clear of Earth for a while...

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/14/us/politics/navy-ufo-reports.html

 

Navy Reports Describe Encounters With Unexplained Flying Objects

While some of the encounters have been reported publicly before, the Navy records are an official accounting of the incidents, including descriptions from the pilots of what they saw.

Lt. Ryan Graves last year described a close encounter off Virginia Beach with what looked like a flying sphere encasing a cube.Credit...Tony Luong for The New York Times

By Ralph Blumenthal and Leslie Kean May 14, 2020 

 

Navy fighter pilots reported close encounters with unidentified aerial vehicles, including several dangerously close, in eight incidents between June 27, 2013, and Feb. 13, 2019, according to documents recently released by the Navy.

 

Two happened on one day, according to one of eight unclassified Navy safety reports released in response to requests filed under the Freedom of Information Act by news outlets, including The New York Times.

 

Last month the Defense Department authenticated three videos of aerial encounters previously published by The Times, accompanying accounts of Navy pilots who reported such close encounters.

 

 

[Deranged Rhino]

Math hardest hit. ?  
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2020/06/15/there-are-36-intelligent-alien-civilizations-in-our-galaxy-say-scientists/amp/

[ICanSleepWhenI'mDead]

19 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

Math hardest hit. ?  
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2020/06/15/there-are-36-intelligent-alien-civilizations-in-our-galaxy-say-scientists/amp/

 

<<It assumes that intelligent life comes to occur on other planets much as it has done on our own planet.>>

 

If you make that assumption to start with, even though we don't understand how life "came to occur" on earth, you're begging the question.  The point is, an assumption is just that.  It's not evidence of anything.

[Deranged Rhino]

5 minutes ago, ICanSleepWhenI'mDead said:

 

<<It assumes that intelligent life comes to occur on other planets much as it has done on our own planet.>>

 

If you make that assumption to start with, even though we don't understand how life "came to occur" on earth, you're begging the question.  The point is, an assumption is just that.  It's not evidence of anything.

 

No disagreement. I was just busting 4mer's chops a bit  

[Warcodered]

27 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

Math hardest hit. ?  
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2020/06/15/there-are-36-intelligent-alien-civilizations-in-our-galaxy-say-scientists/amp/

But I mean is this even featured on a sitcom?

[njbuff]

It's King Ghidorah. ?

[LeGOATski]

16 hours ago, ICanSleepWhenI'mDead said:

 

<<It assumes that intelligent life comes to occur on other planets much as it has done on our own planet.>>

 

If you make that assumption to start with, even though we don't understand how life "came to occur" on earth, you're begging the question.  The point is, an assumption is just that.  It's not evidence of anything.

I mean....its just establishing a minimum based on things we know...

 

Interesting, but not super meaningful at this point. 

 

Big picture: we just need to find the right targets for when the day comes that we can cross that great divide...

[ICanSleepWhenI'mDead]

8 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

I mean....its just establishing a minimum based on things we know...

 

Interesting, but not super meaningful at this point. 

 

Big picture: we just need to find the right targets for when the day comes that we can cross that great divide...

 

No.

 

It's not establishing a minimum, it's assuming a minimum, and that assumption is based on a guess or an opinion, not "on things we know" (i.e., actual facts).  We know that life exists on earth.  That is a fact.  We don't know if life exists elsewhere in the universe.  Nobody has ever found any, but there's plenty of places we haven't been able to look.

 

Speculative assumption in, speculative "calculation" out.

 

So yeah, it's "not super meaningful" because it's not meaningful at all.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

On 6/15/2020 at 5:44 PM, ICanSleepWhenI'mDead said:

 

<<It assumes that intelligent life comes to occur on other planets much as it has done on our own planet.>>

 

If you make that assumption to start with, even though we don't understand how life "came to occur" on earth, you're begging the question.  The point is, an assumption is just that.  It's not evidence of anything.

 

Aren’t most (all) theories based off of an assumption? 
 

   

[LeGOATski]

35 minutes ago, ICanSleepWhenI'mDead said:

 

No.

 

It's not establishing a minimum, it's assuming a minimum, and that assumption is based on a guess or an opinion, not "on things we know" (i.e., actual facts).  We know that life exists on earth.  That is a fact.  We don't know if life exists elsewhere in the universe.  Nobody has ever found any, but there's plenty of places we haven't been able to look.

 

Speculative assumption in, speculative "calculation" out.

 

So yeah, it's "not super meaningful" because it's not meaningful at all.

The calculation is based on a model of our own existence and produces an estimate. I think you're taking it too seriously, or your criticism is more justly aimed at the tone of the reporting. The headline isn't exactly accurate to begin with...

 

This doesn't mean the model isn't legitimate. It's one model out of many that could be constructed, which don't have any data to verify themselves with yet.

 

But if you think of it like a storm path model. Hundreds of estimates layed over one another and then you find the points at which they cross over each other the most. Those are the points we start looking at once we have the capability to look...

[4merper4mer]

On June 15, 2020 at 5:22 PM, Deranged Rhino said:

Math hardest hit. ?  
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2020/06/15/there-are-36-intelligent-alien-civilizations-in-our-galaxy-say-scientists/amp/

Interesting that as time has gone by and more is dicovered that theories about the number of alien civilizations has dropped from very large numbers to.....36.  More interesting yet is that this number is derived from favorable assumptions where preceding favorable assumptions have been disproven.  Now 36 is an optimistic number where thousands upon thousands used to be the optimistic view.  

 

Do we detect a trend?  10,000 ----------> 36 ---------> ?  I think I see where this is leading.

 

Side note: Even at a low number like 36 sitcom math still holds sway.  The number is zero guys.  Somewhere Von Neumann and Fermi are laughing it up at Drake.

[LeGOATski]

41 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Interesting that as time has gone by and more is dicovered that theories about the number of alien civilizations has dropped from very large numbers to.....36.  More interesting yet is that this number is derived from favorable assumptions where preceding favorable assumptions have been disproven.  Now 36 is an optimistic number where thousands upon thousands used to be the optimistic view.  

 

Do we detect a trend?  10,000 ----------> 36 ---------> ?  I think I see where this is leading.

 

Side note: Even at a low number like 36 sitcom math still holds sway.  The number is zero guys.  Somewhere Von Neumann and Fermi are laughing it up at Drake.

I think you're confusing "communicating intelligent civilizations" with "habitable planets"

 

I'm pretty sure no one's ever said there are 10,000 communicating intelligent civilizations in the Milky Way alone, but I'd like to read that article of you have the link. Maybe someone said that about the entire universe?

[Hedge]

 

 

[4merper4mer]

8 hours ago, Hedge said:

 

 

I'll watch later but I'm guessing he was talking about Canadians.  Unless he used the word intelligent.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

10 hours ago, Hedge said:

 

 

There goes that theory of Trump being the great whistleblower for the people to bring about disclosure? At the end you can see him squirm because he knows he's just as powerless as the Presidents who came before him, system is too big. We somehow need a President who doesn't fear for their life or their family's lives or it's going to have to happen without support from the oval office, seems to me. 

[Hedge]

INTELLIGENCE AUTHORIZATION ACT FOR FISCAL YEAR 2021

Dated June 17, 2020

 

From pages 11 and 12

 

Quote

Advanced Aerial Threats The Committee supports the efforts of the Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon Task Force at the Office of Naval Intelligence to standardize collection and reporting on unidentified aerial phenomenon, any links they have to adversarial foreign governments, and the threat they pose to U.S. military assets and installations. However, the Committee remains concerned that there is no unified, comprehensive process within the Federal Government for collecting and analyzing intelligence on unidentified aerial phenomena, despite the potential threat. The Committee understands that the relevant intelligence may be sensitive; nevertheless, the Committee finds that the information sharing and coordination across the Intelligence Community has been inconsistent, and this issue has lacked attention from senior leaders. Therefore, the Committee directs the DNI, in consultation with the Secretary of Defense and the heads of such other agencies as the Director and Secretary jointly consider relevant, to submit a re-port within 180 days of the date of enactment of the Act, to the congressional intelligence and armed services committees on unidentified aerial phenomena (also known as ‘‘anomalous aerial vehicles’’), including observed airborne objects that have not been identified.

 

The Committee further directs the report to include:

1. A detailed analysis of unidentified aerial phenomena data and intelligence reporting collected or held by the Office of Naval Intelligence, including data and intelligence reporting held by the Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force;

2. A detailed analysis of unidentified phenomena data collected by: a. geospatial intelligence; b. signals intelligence; c. human intelligence; and d. measurement and signals intelligence;

3. A detailed analysis of data of the FBI, which was derived from investigations of intrusions of unidentified aerial phenomena data over restricted United States airspace;

4. A detailed description of an interagency process for ensuring timely data collection and centralized analysis of all unidentified aerial phenomena reporting for the Federal Government, regardless of which service or agency acquired the information;

5. Identification of an official accountable for the process described in paragraph 4;

6. Identification of potential aerospace or other threats posed by the unidentified aerial phenomena to national security, and an assessment of whether this unidentified aerial phenomena activity may be attributed to one or more foreign adversaries;

7. Identification of any incidents or patterns that indicate a potential adversary may have achieved breakthrough aerospace capabilities that could put United States strategic or conventional forces at risk; and

8. Recommendations regarding increased collection of data, enhanced research and development, and additional funding and other resources.

 

[LeGOATski]

8 minutes ago, Hedge said:

INTELLIGENCE AUTHORIZATION ACT FOR FISCAL YEAR 2021

Dated June 17, 2020

 

From pages 11 and 12

 

 

Part of the reason we haven't needed such a unified investigation network is that, up until recently, America has been at the forefront of technological advancements in military aviation.

 

Now we're like "woah"....at least publicly

[Deranged Rhino]

https://www.foxnews.com/science/classified-ufo-briefings-senators-disturbed-expert

 

It's coming sooner than you think. 

[Foxx]

https://twitter.com/SaraCarterDC/status/1275906796876521472

 

UFO hunters? Marco Rubio reveals ‘Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon Task Force’

U.S. lawmakers are asking the Pentagon for a detailed, unclassified report on unidentified aerial phenomena over concerns the issue has been given scant attention from the intelligence community while acknowledging the existence of an “Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon Task Force.”

 

In his report attached to the 2020-2021 Senate Intelligence Authorization Act, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, acting chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, instructs the director of national intelligence, the secretary of defense and other agency heads to compile data on “unidentified aerial phenomenon,” more commonly referred to as unidentified flying objects, or UFOs.

 

“The Committee remains concerned that there is no unified, comprehensive process within the Federal Government for collecting and analyzing intelligence on unidentified aerial phenomena, despite the potential threat,” according to the bill.

 

“The Committee understands that the relevant intelligence may be sensitive; nevertheless, the Committee finds that the information sharing and coordination across the Intelligence Community has been inconsistent, and this issue has lacked attention from senior leaders,” it continues. ...

[ICanSleepWhenI'mDead]

I think I had an update on this, but the details seem to have escaped me.  My brother Darryl says he found me in a ditch around midnight, and my other brother Darryl says I just kept mumbling something about the mother ship.  Go figure.

[frostbitmic]

On 6/19/2020 at 1:09 PM, 2020 Our Year For Sure said:

There goes that theory of Trump being the great whistleblower for the people to bring about disclosure? At the end you can see him squirm because he knows he's just as powerless as the Presidents who came before him, system is too big. We somehow need a President who doesn't fear for their life or their family's lives or it's going to have to happen without support from the oval office, seems to me. 

He just knows aliens are orange not green.

 

[4merper4mer]

Below is a cool and very plausible video which in part discusses a possible reason why we haven't found aliens.  This guy does a lot of really great videos about space.  Once in a while there is something about aliens but mostly it is about realistic things, not things that have been mathematically disproved like aliens.  Anyway the content of the video is really cool and nothing in it is really wrong, but there is a fatal flaw wrt  finding aliens.  Can you find it?

 

 

 

Edited July 2, 2020 by 4merper4mer

[ICanSleepWhenI'mDead]

On 6/15/2020 at 3:22 PM, Deranged Rhino said:

Math hardest hit. ?  
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2020/06/15/there-are-36-intelligent-alien-civilizations-in-our-galaxy-say-scientists/amp/

 

On 6/16/2020 at 8:20 AM, LeGOATski said:

I mean....its just establishing a minimum based on things we know...

 

Interesting, but not super meaningful at this point. 

 

Big picture: we just need to find the right targets for when the day comes that we can cross that great divide...

 

On 6/16/2020 at 6:17 PM, LeGOATski said:

The calculation is based on a model of our own existence and produces an estimate. I think you're taking it too seriously, or your criticism is more justly aimed at the tone of the reporting. The headline isn't exactly accurate to begin with...

 

This doesn't mean the model isn't legitimate. It's one model out of many that could be constructed, which don't have any data to verify themselves with yet.

 

But if you think of it like a storm path model. Hundreds of estimates layed over one another and then you find the points at which they cross over each other the most. Those are the points we start looking at once we have the capability to look...

 

Here's what a co-author of the "36 intelligent alien civilizations in our galaxy" prediction recently said about his own study:

 

From https://getpocket.com/explore/item/scientists-say-most-likely-number-of-contactable-alien-civilisations-is-36?utm_source=pocket-newtab

_______________________

“Basically, we made the assumption that intelligent life would form on other [Earth-like] planets like it has on Earth, so within a few billion years life would automatically form as a natural part of evolution,” said Conselice.

 

The assumption, known as the Astrobiological Copernican Principle, is fair as everything from chemical reactions to star formation is known to occur if the conditions are right, he said. “[If intelligent life forms] in a scientific way, not just a random way or just a very unique way, then you would expect at least this many civilisations within our galaxy,” he said.

 

He added that, while it is a speculative theory, he believes alien life would have similarities in appearance to life on Earth."  (emphasis added)

________________________

The assumption is not "fair,"  because although, according to Mr. Conselice, we know that chemical reactions and star formation "occur if the conditions are right," we don't have any idea how life began  on earth,  which is the only place that we actually know that life exists.  If we knew how life began on earth (we don't), we could establish those conditions and create life from something that was previously non-life.  We have never been able to do that, and don't have the slightest clue how to make that happen.

 

Even the co-author of the study admits that his model is "speculative" and based on an "assumption."  That is far different from storm path models that are based on actually observed facts about multiple prior actual storm paths.  Those fact-based models can be fine-tuned to become more accurately predictive as time goes by and more actual storm paths are observed.

 

If we ever do find life elsewhere in the universe, we can start constructing models based on actual facts.  Right now we have only one relevant fact.  Life exists on earth.  And we don't know how it started.

 

Speculative assumption in, speculative calculation out.

    

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

On this day in history 1947 

 

Papers report a peculiar crash in New Mexico desert

Newspapers report the capture of a "flying saucer" at a ranch near the town of Roswell and question the US military's story about the crash of a weather balloon. In the 1990s the military will finally reveal that a top-secret nuclear test-monitoring balloon was recovered at the site.

[Hedge]

 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

They got the math wrong?

 

 

BREAKING NEWS (maybe) Study: The moon is 85 million years younger than previously thought. 

 

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/the-moon-is-85-million-years-younger-than-previously-thought/ar-BB16ItE3?OCID=ansmsnnews11

 

[ICanSleepWhenI'mDead]

Interesting read that presents both sides of the argument re potential for finding life on Mars:

 

From https://getpocket.com/explore/item/why-discovering-martians-could-be-disappointing?utm_source=pocket-newtab

 

Examples:

 

"Most life on Earth is small, dumb, and deep, and the same might be true on Mars."

 

"We’ve sent a fleet of invading spacecraft to Mars—it’s like the inverse of 1950s space horror movies—and we can’t find anything."

[4merper4mer]

15 hours ago, ICanSleepWhenI'mDead said:

 

 

Examples:

 

"Most life on Earth is small, dumb, and deep......

 

 

Is this a shot at Canadians?

[Hedge]