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Orchard Park Bills 23 Meadowland Giants 14 This game has a classic Bills win but the locals are annoyed because it wasn't 50-3 feel, also I think the Giants come out looking to at least be more competent then they have been. I think the Giants jump out to an early 7-0 lead and the Bills answer with back to back FGs entering the 2nd quarter. Finally mid 2nd quarter Cook breaks a 30 yard run to put the Bills up 13-7 at half. Buffalo gets the ball after half and moves downfield as Allen picks through the G-Men secondary but a holding penalty forces a FG. The Giants go on a time consuming drive and get a Barkley TD to only go down 16-14 entering the 4th quarter. The Bills finally break the damn on a 5 min drive as Allen gets Knox on a 20 yard TD and he angry runs it in. Danny Dimes throws an INT to Taron Johnson trying to respond and Buffalo runs clock the rest of the game eliminating a G-Man response. Again ugly victory that annoys the locals despite a 9 pt margin of victory. Allen 22-29 232 yds 1 TD 32 yds rushing Cook 77 yds 11 atts 1 TD 45 yds rec Diggs 85 yds 6 rec

ugh, good news is they will win is they do well at night in red. bad news is with the giants in their throwbacks this is a major loss in style for blue over white or 90s throwback (runs and ducks for cover)

I use nflplayoffpredictors weekly to see how I think the season will go across the board. Buffalo is on a collision course right now with week at Miami being for the division. Buffalo heading into week 18 could be 11-5 which figures a 8-3 run which isn't too far out of the realm of happening as they have a bunch of winnable games with NE2x, NYJ, TB, NYG, and DEN. They do have some tough games like KC/CIN/PHI/DAL/LAC still but McD usually is .500 in those historically and they still have a lot of games left at home. So again just say 11-5 heading into Miami. The Phis themselves have PHI/KC/BAL/DAL so if they are 12-4 come week 18 which is 8-3 themselves things would be reallyyyy interesting. I have believed the Jets loss not yesterdays is the one that removed error to slip from their schedule. JAX was going to be tough with travel, Jags being playoff team that is building, and the let down from a division game. The Jets game kills because they had it won if Allen would've just stopped throwing gasoline on the fire. The AFC North has been beating itself up and if KC can get a few losses too, the Bills Phins game could actually be a legit division 1 seed game.

Bills 24 Jags 20 The Jags seem like a team figuring themselves out a bit and I won't be surprised if the second half of the season they get on a nice run. Secondly their defense while in the lower half of the league against the pass is top ten against the run. Josh Allen Jax version is a real threat, but the rest of their d-line is not as potent. During Buffalo's three game run the run game has been gashing teams, how the Bills do being able to run will either open the passing game more or allow the Jags to tighten on it. I see the game being a bit back and forth and I would not be surprised if the Bills are a little sluggish in the first half down something like 13-10 at half. But second half the chariots of fire come as the offense ball controls a bit to get a 24-13 lead and while the Jags narrow it to 24-20, the defense shuts them down late as the Bills get their 4th in a row. Allen 26-34 292 yds 2 TDs 22 yds rush Cooks 11 att 53 yds Kincaid 6 rec 89 yds 1 TD Groot 2 sacks

Besides it just being an awful injury I was genuinely interest if Chubb could carry CLE to the division. Such a bummer as Watson just seems so shaky at this point I wouldn't bet on him.

And the thing is Burrow is incredibly dependent as a passer on his timing and precision passing. he is not like Mahomes or Allen who can make it up as they go, if his body isn't right it is a major issue.

I have thought the worst thing CIN did was not resting Burrow a week or two. Short term it would've stunk and they would probably fall back in division race, but now they may have to large of a hole to even make the playoffs which is even worse.

Based on how it is going in CHI Town the only true way to fix that team is from top to bottom. That franchise has held onto the belief that defense wins above all and the whole "bear down mentality" etc.. Fundamentally they need a truly new vision that literally starts with a football president like the Eagles have in Howie Roseman who can then put everything into place that embraces the NFL today which rewards offense and high octane passing. If they cannot do this Caleb will be let down regardless of talent and his ability to lift a team. I honestly have no idea whether Fields can or can't be the guy. I am not sure how you would know with that chaos and lack of cohesive vision across the board. He was drafted by a different GM/Coach and then year 2 got a new GM and coach. That cycle has been repeating forever there. If things do keep on pace I can see them kicking Fields out or trading him, grabbing Williams and Harrison as a selling point for fans. Their burnt out and given how they have operated it would be their MO. IF by some chance they keep Fields I can see NYG/Raiders/Vikings all trying for him. Honestly any team QB needy in the top 15 should.

I thought about moving them down one but I guess my thing is they are the only team in that division whose QB is functioning and playing at a high level, their defense is usually pretty good, and their already 2-0 in division. Don't get me wrong I thought pretty hard about if they were too high, but at least making the playoffs seems like a definitive yes. Most annoying thing with KC is the offense looks a bit more mortal, but their defense looks really stout so they are in it no matter what. The only good game their offense had was against a rotting corpse in CHI.

Daboll has creditability after last year and time, but they are going to have a rough road for a while. They do have injuries making it nearly impossible for having a competent attack.

It’s why I have them where I did for each. Odds are Jags pull it out, but Stroud at this level for a season is a real issue for the rest of the divison.

They say the first 4-6 weeks of the NFL season can be fools gold. Last year the Bengals started 0-2 but by seasons end were roaring, the Chiefs in 2021 were 3-3 6 weeks in yet finished #2 overall at seasons end. Conversely the Steelers of 2020 started 11-0 only to go 1-4 and lose in the wildcard at home. The NFL is littered with teams who start 3-1/4-1 etc.. and end the year under .500 (As Bills fans 08/11 come to mind). I try not to take massive brush strokes with some teams good or bad doing this as it is early, BUT teams like MIN or CIN have some red lights on the dashboard right now and you can cost yourself a division or playoff chance if you blow too many too early. With this said here is where I see things across the league (I am not separating conferences): See You In January: Buffalo - This feels like the most complete Bills team since McD got here and since the 90s SB teams. Fingers crossed baby. Miami- Sunday was reality check that your good but the top is another level. Tua is a very good QB, to take the next step into top 5 means elevating beyond the system during breakdowns. San Francisco- Purdy is Tua lite with even more talent around him somehow. This team is so dynamic across the board, I do wonder when they are down for real in a game how they respond. Philadelphia- Their record is deceiving as the offense is a step behind last year and Hurts looks to still be recovering with his shoulder. They will get upset in the next few weeks and it won't be a surprise. Dallas- Back on track after the disaster in ARZ, Sunday's game against San Fran will be a real early season litmus test on what this team is or isn't. Detroit- Big win on the road to establish the new world order in the NFC North. Quarter into the season the Lions have done their job, three quarters to go to finish changing the narrative. Kansas City- The offense lacks some skill at WR they have had in prior years, but the defense is incredibly stout and the running game goes. Baltimore- Someday we will see the Ravens fully healthy, that also might be at the 2nd coming of Christ. Should Make The Playoffs...But Jacksonville- The offense is not where people though (including myself) but the potential is there. Maybe they aren't the 1 seed but the division SHOULD be theirs, the plucky upstarts in IND and HOU though make this a little interesting. Los Angeles Chargers- Nothing is easy with this team when it should be. Somehow week 18 they will be in scenario they can win and possibly get the division or lose and possibly miss the playoffs. Nothing ever makes sense with this club. Seattle- The biggest issue for Seattle is their own division where SF looks unstoppable, the Rams have reappeared as a thing, and even the Cards are fighting. They need at minimum to go 3-2 in remaining division games which seem far tougher now to not worry about getting bounced in tiebreakers especially with weeks 12-15 being SF, at DAL, at SF, & PHI. Tampa Bay- Don't look now but Baker is on pace for 30 TDs and 3749 yds. Defense is quite solid, division is shaky which they just got one win vs NOLA, & Baker is playing within himself..... but can he keep it going for 13 more games. Dashboard is Red, Near Perfect Run Needed For Playoffs Cincinnati- Burrow is clearly hurt in some capacity, but CIN is desperately trying to keep him in to not lose pace in division which is doing more harm. They are now 0-3 in conference, 0-2 in division and 1-3 overall. They need to start thinking long term to save the season and get the best of Burrow back because at this point they are looking at 9-4 just to make the wildcard. Minnesota- The offense is near the best in football in terms of production and their defense can get sacks. They have to walk a really fine line if they want to get back in the playoffs and 10 wins is a must given the tiebreaker situation they've blown already. Wildcards for the Wildcard (50/50) Cleveland- If Chubb was healthy I would've had them in, but Watson has been very up and down and now hurt. Washington- Defense looks decent and the offense has weapons. Can Howell have more good days then bad? LA Rams- Things get reallyyy interesting if Kupp comes back and can be healthy the rest of the year to join the kids at WR. I am pulling for them to make a run for a wild card as they are a fun team to watch Green Bay- Love has looked decent and the young weapons are coming along. Curious if they can be consistent enough for 9 wins? New Orleans- Defense looks good, offense looks like pure garbage. Maybe they can figure it out running Kamara enough and Carr can find his 2016 self, but they just seem to be treading water. QB Play Wasting a Playoff Team NY Jets- From a purely neutral party perspective it is criminal they refuse to go find or sign a QB who is not Zach Wilson. The rest of the lineup is worthy of a wildcard. Atlanta- They bet on Ridder to be a decent game manager and he has been decidedly worse. Again why wouldn't they go after Lamar, Carr, heck even Jimmy G so they had some backing at QB? The Kids Are Fun, Can They Get To 10 Wins...Probably Not Houston - Stroud is elevating his WRs, they play with fight, and overall are taking some real steps of growth this year. Still feels like talent wise they don't have enough to make a push in the back half, but anything is possible. Indianapolis- Richardson is a freak and dare I say Allen 2.0 with his physical tools. IF Taylor is truly healthy when he returns I am very curious to watch this rushing attack. Dick Jauron Bills! Aka 7-10 No Playoffs No Top 5 Pick Denver- Advanced stats are nicer to the Broncos then their record. I won't be surprised if with 5 games to go they are 5-7 and in the hunt. First two losses were killer. Tennessee Titans- That offense is putrid regardless of what coaching and the defense does. Tannehill still is benched by week 13. How The Mighty Have Fallen... To The Draft New England- Worst loss of BB's career in terms of margin of defeat. The defense is banged up and the offense while more competent can't compete. Glorious to watch. Pittsburgh- Sports are cyclical people. Long runs of winning have their down days too even for the best teams. Seriously though a good defense has zero help by this offense who for some reason still employees Matt Canada as an OC. Tomlins .500 or better streak dies this year. Tough Year Ahead/Arizona Is Fighting Las Vegas- A mess across the board, coach who never has inspired confidence, and a team that won't admit they need to reset. Carolina- Offense is barren of talent, Young is taking his lumps and looks very basic, and they don't have a 1st this draft which might be top 5. Yikes. New York Giants- Last year they got the bounces and breaks. Then they drank the koolaid they could make Daniel Jones into more then he is. Now the offense is stagnant, the QB stinks, the RB wants to leave, and their cap room is a mess thanks to said QBs contract. I still believe in Daboll/Schoen but they have some real hard questions they need to be very honest about if they want to truly right the ship long term. Arizona- They will be drafting top 5 but they look to have some fight and be buying into Gannon's program. Work to do but long term could be a real threat IF they draft well Chicago Bears (they get their own category) -Every few years a team comes apart in a truly spectacular way. I was never high on Fields, but I have zero clue how you evaluate him either in this dumpster fire.

ESPN had him at three, hmmmm lol

Shootout style game where Buffalo jumps ahead early and never relents the lead but Miami is always within a few points to tie or take the lead. Allen puts the Bills back up late with a TD to Diggs making it 31-27 with 1:00 left. Miami gets to midfield but Milano gets an INT on a forced throw on 3rd down at the Buffalo 30 to end it. Allen 24-32 301 3 TDs 28 yds rush Cook 71 yds rush 15 attempts Diggs 145 yds 8 rec 1 TD

Which is fine as a rookie I expect him to get better at that. But facts remain he is actually doing well and my expectation is he grows and becomes a far better weapon by seasons end.

Andddd this is why I hate fans. Four weeks into the season people take massive brush strokes on rookies with no thinking behind it or giving time for things to play out. -Kincaid is third on the Bills in receptions and yards -He is pacing for the 5th most receptions ever by a rookie TE -Only two rookie TEs ever have even broke 1000 yards and just five have broke 800 yards -11 TE's in the history of the NFL as a rookie have broken 600 yards, by comparison 6 rookie WRs last year broke 600 yards. It is a legitimately difficult position to learn and integrate a new player year one. -The Bills offense is still working in many new pieces at this point it is far from a finished product -If you watch All 22 Kincaid is open 24/7 and doing his part, Josh is building trust and learning to find him. The Jets game Kincaid could've had a 100 yards easily if Josh stopped playing hero ball -Plenty of players as rookies come on hot and hit the rookie wall, others take their time in the first half of the season and find their wings

Can 100% see something weird like this happening, but man it would be kind of a let down just because I am hoping for a shootout.

My thoughts: Surprises -Houston and Arizona have some real fight with Stroud looking quiet good and the sum of parts playing being the means in the desert -I thought Miami would be good to quite good this year but the level they are pacing is truly impressive -I had the Jags as a top seed and they look like a work in progress again. Plenty of time, but the longer they don't string some wins together the more open they leave the division to someone else -Overall level of play is very much towards defenses to start the year and there has been some very sloppy football. -Green Bay has already played better then I thought and maybe a wildcard is possible -Injuries. I can't remember a season so early on with the level of just awful injuries to start and to such high profile players. Rodgers Chubb & now Mike Williams (still a shock regardless of past) plus Burrow still being down has certainly been a lot. -LA Rams, very early and things can change but they look like maybe a wild card race could happen Expected -Never bought the Bears hype although this implosion is bordering on cleaning the coaching staff and starting fresh. They are approaching really rudderless in terms of direction. This team badly needs an outside football guy to step in as president of operations with a true plan to right the ship. -Regressing to the mean sucks for teams and the Vikings and Giants are learning the hard way. I had MIN as a playoff team but the 7th seed WC and for the reason they are showing. Not sure at 0-3 if they can dig out. The Giants I think over achieved big time last year like the Bills in 2017 and now life is hard when your talent isn't as high as you thought. Long term still buy in for Daboll and crew but I can easily see 6-11 on the horizon. -The Ravens look good even if they are never allowed players to avoid catastrophic injuries, still think they finish like 12-5 -49ers with a competent QB is really interesting. Cannot wait to see them take on PHI healthy this year -One month in and the Lions are slowly climbing the ladder like we all thought for their first division crown. Thursday isn't a must win but they can send a solid message to the rest of the division.

Yesterday the differences in QB play really came out of the woodwork and highlighted the good to bad. The Jets are wasting a playoff caliber roster because they keep sticking with Zach Wilson while the Bears have imploded about as bad as any team in a long while and the hype from preseason did not help that cause. After seeing Mahomes opposite Justin Fields at the same time I started thinking what makes some guys make and other fail or seem to never have a chance. We saw front row until Josh years of ineptitude at developing guys drafted and then success with Allen. These are the factors thinking over the history of football that I have found to be controllable things teams do that help with a QB having a true chance to develop and stick: Build the offense to a QBs strengths- When the Bills drafted Allen you knew the guy could rip it with the best but his accuracy was dicey at times. Lamar was a tremendous two way talent but the team lacked infrastructure to bomb the ball. Buffalo after year one got a guy who could catch anything anywhere in Beasley and a burner in Brown who couldn't be overthrown. Both maxed areas Allen had strength in but needed assistance. When Lamar started in Baltimore they basically altered the entire offense to his running approach and attacking in that style when they passed. When Peyton started in IND year 2 they added weapons who could run timing routes that he could pick apart with and they used his brain to maximize the creativity he offered. Watching Fields struggle you see a QB who they do not use his mobility, they don't scheme or use play action enough, and don't let him rip it. If your QB excels at fast quick read slants, crosses, etc.. you just aim for pass catchers with speed and good hands. Conversely if you want to air the ball out with a big arm getting a guy with size and jump is going to help. Year 1 for many rookies is a burn it type year, but year 2 the most successful examples of QB play seem to truly focus on a QBs best attributes and go with it. Great Pass Protection- The history of football is littered with guys like David Carr or Tim Couch drafted early and then who got beat up so bad you will never know what they might have been able to do. Andrew Luck was a can't miss prospect and he did perform to that level but the lack of line play wrecked the long term future of what could've been an all time great. All QBs benefit from good line plan, but giving young QBs time is so crucial as they develop as passers and to eliminate bad habits. Additionally it allows a more fair analysis of what you have so you are not left saying "its hard to know because the pocket collapsed in one second". Coverage for defense's can only hold for so long and even if your skill guys are not the best, giving the QB time to go through reads should open something up. Maximizing The Rookie Contract Both Dollar & Time Wise- Generally making a rookie QB sit always feels like a poor decision as you do not know what you have and the growing pain time is real. Mahomes was different as he was brought into a QB friendly offense on a team that was competing so he was afforded the chance to wait for a bit. Same with Jordan Love where he had to sit behind a good established starter. But if you are a team on the rebuild what is gained by waiting? Rookie contracts are gold especially for QBs and you are only delaying a possible window from opening to compete faster. Baker Josh Lamar all were on the field and by year 2 the teams had invested pieces and time for them. The moment Russell Wilson took the Seahawks starting spot back in 2012 the Seahawks gained years of cap space at the most important position which they used properly on the rest of the roster. Year 2 cannot be an extension of year 1 and most failures at QB feel like situations where excuses are made and the learning in year 1 was never complete. Sean McVay took a beleaguered Jared Goff in year 2 and managed to maximize his skills as they added talent around him to win. Year 2 Jalen Hurts they found a way to take a next step both scheme and talent wise with. With you best QBs and success at the position there is a proper building period and timing that factors into their growth, when it fails it usually comes with mismanaged time and resources. Everyone One From Top Down is Lock Step With The New QB & The Plan- There are very few examples of rookies drafted year 1 and then year 2 a new head coach is in with a lot of success. That doesn't mean down the road the OC or head coach cannot change, but given how crucial the development of young passers is in years 1/2/3 that type of instability destroys young QBs the majority of the time. One of the things I appreciate the Steelers have done at QB is show patience across the board and universally back that player. When Big Ben started he took his time and lumps but no one was coaching for their job or looking to move out of plan quickly. Pickett may or may not be the guy, but again they have backed him as the guy across the board and he isn't wondering what is happening to Tomlin or if someone is going to take his spot. Conversely Fields was drafted by a different QB/GM and then had to do year 1 again with another head coach and then another GM. EJ Manuel for the Bills it felt like half the organization wanted and the other half wanted an average vet to try and win with at that time. Neither was necessarily wrong thinking wise in a vacuum, but a rookie QB will feel the lack of rope to make mistakes and the team will feel then inability to compete if two trains are running in different ways. Coaching Scheme Is Progressive aka With The Times- The NFL is a league that wants you to pass and rewards you for it. There is nothing wrong when a QB is taking their lumps having a scheme that may be a bit conservative especially if your team is having some success. Brady was good with the Pats early on, but the offense was not game breaking either in the early 2000s. He and NE evolved as the league did though as he showed he could handle and do more so that is fine for a time. But looking at Mac Jones last year how the heck would you know what he can or cannot do with that scheme. It was like going back to the late 90s and so brutally basic and void of creativity your wasting your time. The best offensive coaches are constantly evolving to help their passers in scheme and finding ways to create separation and holes vs the defense your playing. Kliff Kingsbury faded with the cardinals, but at least his first two years with Murray he was running an offense in the style of what was working best conceptually in the NFL. We have the ability with All 22 now to see far easier whether a OC is scheming well or not so much and there will always be a need for constant evolution in the NFL as the games grow and defenses adjust. The move where most teams are playing 2 safeties high all the time now on defense to stop big plays is the result of a decade plus worth of passing that feasted on ill prepared secondary's.

Oh I’m fully expecting a reply or a thread on “the worst wins of McD” and why he didn’t deserve any of them hahaha

So apparently it will be 100 games for McD on Sunday which is pretty cool and also wild its been that long. Jay Skurski had a nice piece on the 100 game mark and his top 5 games for McD which prompted me to create this with my best games by him and what yours might be. Honorable Mentions- 2017: Week 4 at Atlanta // Bills win 23-17. Buffalo during the drought had pulled a few impressive wins at home, but on the road was nope. With a trash bag roster McD and crew got to 3-1 and upset the NFC Champs. It felt different once that happened. 2017: Week 12 at KC // Bills win 16-10: Three straight losses including the failed Peterman "Experiment in LA" had the Bills backs against their wall. For many we had seen this before new coach who starts hot and it flames out. Instead in a not necessarily exciting game the Bills just did their job. 2020: Divisional Round Ravens at Bills // Bills win 17-3: The Bills held the prior years MVP in check throughout and then knocked him out. 2022: Week 6 at KC // Bills win 24-20: I will just say I wish I could've seen this team healthy in the playoffs because I think a healthy Bills team with Von and a functioning secondary would've made a true run. Anyway this was a prize fighter type game and the team played up to it especially after 13 seconds. 2022: Week 16 at Chicago // Bills win 35-13: The season at this point really had felt exhausting and long between injuries and uncontrollable off the field things. The Bills clinched their third straight division with far less excitement then prior years, but in a sense more appreciative given the hurdles thrown at them. 5. 2021 Wildcard Weekend // Bills smoke Patriots 47-17: Even though the Bills won in NE to take the division at seasons end the talking heads still were giving NE a lot of props that they might take the Bills out again. Buffalo put down for good any upstart ideas and that the division for the future went through Buffalo. Master class across the lineup of destroying your opponent. 4. 2019 Week 15 Bills at Steelers win 17:10: The Bills clinched their 2nd appearance without luck just earning it the old fashion way. His D made work of Duck Hodges and Allen and crew did enough on offense on SNF to get the post season punched. 3. 2020 Week 15 Bills at Denver win 48-19: The Bills clinched their first division title in over two decades blowing the doors off the wall and having a fun time doing it. Buffalo was the division favorite entering the season, but you got to prove and earn it for things to truly change and they did that day. 2. 2017 Week 17 Bills at Phins win 22-17: The drought died and he did a superb job guiding that team capped off with the Kyle Williams TD. 1. 2019 Thanksgiving Bills at Dallas win 26-15: This may be the moment after all the years of the drought that stamped Buffalo is back. 17' was fun and nice to end the playoff drought. Irrelevancy though ended on this day and it felt like kicking a door in saying "hi yea were back". Every element of the team did its part and it was as complete a win as any.

Bills 27 Commanders 16 Buffalo has a controlled smothering type effort against the Commanders as they dictate the game from start to finish harassing Howell throughout.. WSH puts up a spirited fight as the teams go into half 14-10, but an Allen 40 yard bomb to Gabe Davis open the score to 21-10. The Bills get a fumble which sets up a bass FG to go up 24-10. The Commanders get a FG late 3rd and again in the 4th but the Bills drain the clock before a penalty erases a FG chance. 24-16 WSH tries to tie late but Howell is picked by Hyde and Bass ices the game at 27-16 with 1:30 to go. Allen 25-33 305 1 TD 37 yds rush 1 TD Murray 55 yds 1 TD 8 att Davis 111 yds 4 rec

To me sports media is very fractured at this point. Major networks like ESPN have moved away from what we liked with sportscenter to be quasi talk shows because enough people care more about the drama then the sports. But everyone copies that so you just have redundancy and no originality either. Factor in then that there is superb media options with podcasts or streamed shows like Pat McCaffee or PFT or work from people at the athletic and its has eroded the pie where I don't think you ever see one dominant program again or network. I personally ignore the Steve As or Skip or Colin because their all the same. It is for clicks and viewers not the truth or anything remotely of substance.

My playoff entering season: AFC division BUF KC JAX CIN // wc NYJ MIA BAL NFC division DAL SEA ATL MIN // wc SF PHI DET

My bad PHI. I think with their schedule being a little tougher and DAL looking the best they have in years they end up WC.