I think 4.5 is a great betting line.
I find it tough to argue against KC, Cincy, and San Fran being ranked ahead of the Bills. There’s a real case for #4 for the Bills.
I went with 5-8. The Texans, unfortunately, may be a consistent competitor, especially while Stroud is on his rookie deal. There are a number of teams that appear to be on equal footing with the Bills. As a homer, I give the Bills the edge over such teams. So I’ve got them as #5.