CA OC Bills Fan

So, the OP said "splits don't lie". I have no idea what splits is but I get his point. An old saying goes, "figures don't lie but liers can figure." Or, put another way, just looking at the numbers can allow you to draw the wrong conclusion. As many have pointed out, last year was an especially bad weather year for home games. Yes, much worse than 2020 (or so it seemed but since I was all of last year's home games and sitting on a couch in 2020...). In addition, the skill of the opposing defense makes a difference, the score at the time. I've seen some stories that compared various team's aggressiveness by only looking at when the score was within ten points and excluding the last two minutes of each half since blowouts and two minute drills affect play calling. One way to at least partially (not completely true as teams have injuries, get better over the course of the season, etc.) is how has he done against the same opponent in home vs. away games. Each year, there are three teams he plays both at home and away. Not looking anything up or doing any analysis (just what I said you can't do to draw any conclusions), I kind of remember him playing much better at home against Miami than away, pretty awesome both times against the Jets, and fantastic in the two non-hurricane games against the Pattsies. So, on whole, mostly a push. Before making any conclusion that "Allen is better on the road than at home", you would need to do a full analysis. Specifically, either include in your model or minimize all non-controlled variables (which is almost everything in a football game). We can easily assume that both weather and the defense are two factors that can affect QA performance. The other issue is when you say that he's "significantly better", that's implying a statistical difference, not just eyeballing two sets of averages and saying, "yup, he sucks at home." Not difficult to do, and extremely easy using software, but I'm way too lazy to type in all of the information you gave. All data has a confidence interval, meaning, "with 95% confidence JA has a QA rating between x and y when playing at home and between W and Z when playing on the road." If those two intervals don't overlap, there is a statistically significant difference between how he plays at home vs. away. You're welcome for today's statistics lecture.

First of all, thank you OP for sharing. Mrags and anyone else who's unhappy about him accepting the interview, what exactly did he say that's wouldn't apply to anyone? He said: - We expected PSLs to come with the new stadium - Fans are concerned that we could be priced out of the market - Fans will take a wait and see approach. Yes, if you have unlimited funds you may know you're all in regardless of pricing he may be wrong, but I think most are concerned. In my case, to keep my current 4 seats would require almost $20,000 in PSL plus almost $8K/year in ticket prices. Plus, I likely will be back in CA by then so it means travel cost. Much more likely that I'll cancel my season's and go to between 1 and 4 games per year on the secondary market. If I was confident I could sell tickets without losing money (including adding a bit extra to help pay the PSL), I'd keep my tickets, but I think that's unlikely.

So, the question is, how many voted after the Bills picked (or after the draft started)! It seems too unlikely that Elam had the most votes of everyone.

On WGR this morning they said that last year there were three NFC teams that started with two home games which of course, like the AFC this year, meant after that they'd have 9 away and 6 home. I hope it doesn't happen (although from a weather standpoint, maybe I should hope it does), but it could.

Now that it's known that Bills are hosting MNF Week 2, I think it's much less likely Rams will be Week 1. I also heard on WGR last week that the NFL scheduling person that was on stated that the Bills would not get the opener and Thanksgiving. At this point, I think Thanksgiving is more likely.

We'll know soon enough, but I don't see this tweet as a schedule reveal, as said above it's only saying Bills play at Rams this year. I did hear on WGR this morning that ESPN will be announcing before 9 AM today what the "best MNF game of the season will be." Had to leave for work an hour ago, so if it's been announced, I missed it and was hoping someone will post it as soon as it's known. There are at least four games the Bills have that could qualify as being hyped as this if they are scheduled on MNF.

I agree with the statement "points matter more than punts". However, they would not have drafted him if they didn't believe he could learn to hold. If he doesn't, I agree he'll be gone. Haack punted an average of 3 times per game. He had a few awful punts, but for the most part he was a slightly below average punter. If he continues to be a far superior holder over Araiza or any other FA they find, he'll keep his job. But, I fully expect Araiza to be a good holder and to stay with the team.

If we had won that game and if we had gone on to win the SB, I'm not so sure what it changes in how the off-season is managed. I don't believe Beane is the type that will ever rest on the success we've had. We win one, he and McDermott will still analyze where we could be better and attack it. Of course we're picking lower in the draft (we'd all be happy with that of course) and perhaps Von Miller doesn't sign here as it seems part of his motivation is to be the first player to win a SB with three different teams. Beane would have seen that we barely got by KC and couldn't stop them at all and would have addressed where they needed improvement.

First of all, I am not a fan of pit bulls. That being said, I have always been told that it does depend on the individual dog. Some are very friendly and some people specifically love pit bulls and will train them properly. However, like any animal, they are all individuals. Pit bulls were bred to be aggressive so you are more likely to have an aggressive pit bull no matter how they are trained than an aggressive golden retriever. I once got a rescue dog from the dog shelter. Mixed breed, I thought as he got older he looked like a Rhodesian Ridgeback but I don't really know. We spend a significant amount on training once we determined we weren't capable. Then, the dog bit my son approximately 1/2 inch from his eye, leaving a mark that lasted for months (this was the last straw for my wife by the way, the dog was gone soon after). Before we had expensive / on-site at the trainer training, we went to a public training class. One of his litter mates was in the class. This class started when they were maybe three months old. It was obvious right from the start that the other person got a really nice, friendly, good family pet and we did not. Had nothing to do with what we did, it was just the disposition of the animals. I didn't know enough about how to determine aggression or other traits when I picked out the pet.

The "Top-51" is the offseason requirement. As of the final cuts and continuing into the season, the cap is based on the entire roster including practice squad. So, if more $ are needed to fit all under the cap by then, more restructuring or other changes are needed.

It's owned by Dabol. That was in today's Bills Mailbag in the news. I had read that before by the same author maybe, but not sure. https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/bills-mailbag-is-going-after-rob-gronkowski-in-free-agency-the-right-move/article_d3bd1e04-9c08-11ec-a56c-c3ae8c08fdb4.html

Good for him. I hope he does well in his next opportunity.

On one level, I agree. However, as with anything, there's supply and demand. There is a set supply of NFL teams. The locales that have them are in some aspects customers of these. Communities paying for the stadiums is kind of bidding to get (or keep) those teams. We want the team and are willing, as a community, to pay for it. Not close to perfect because many could care less and possibly even prefer that there was no NFL team in their area. Also, cities routinely give tax benefits or other incentives to get employers in their area. That positive impact is more straightforward since it creates jobs which ultimately puts more money into the area and also creates more income tax from those employees, but it also is a method of corporate welfare. I've thought for years that we shouldn't allow this practice with sports teams, but I really don't see it overall helping.

Although I dislike (hate?) the idea of taxpayers paying for stadiums, having laws to determine free markets always have consequences. In this case, it means it's easier for teams to move for the best deal and less likely that smaller markets that won't support high stadium prices will lose teams.

I'm home in CA this week. It was in the mid 80s on Sunday afternoon and sunny. Most people in this area could care less about the Lambs. Of course there are many who do care and the population of SO CAL is very high, but based on the ratings, doesn't seem like the percentage that care are high.

While everyone is saying how much he sucks, what's also amazing is that the two HCs that quit on us quit after our only 2 winning seasons during the draught.

I've only read a few pages each of the last couple of days, so likely will repeat what many others have said (but that won't stop me). First, so far as some who say this is evidence the Rooney Rule is a sham, I completely disagree. Are there (likely many) times where it's a check the box interview, of course. That's what happens when there are rules like this. Many companies have at least unwritten rules that you should interview internal candidates if they meet the minimum requirements for a job, even if you know them and know you don't want to hire them. I've been on both sides of that before. Once where the hiring manager actually sent an email that "Steve X" (outside candidate) accepted the job and he's excited to add Steve to the team. I assume I wasn't supposed to see that email (it wasn't an org announcement) a day or two before my interview. Although I was p'ed off about it, I didn't let on, gave the best interview I could, and I know I impressed. I heard back later that the hiring manager felt he made a mistake. Under a year later, when Steve was let go, If I hadn't have left the company a month earlier I think I likely would have gotten the job. So, my point is, having these interviews gives you exposure and practice. You may or may not feel you need either, but I think it generally helps. I've interviewed people when, in my mind I knew who I wanted to hire, and have changed my mind or have at least kept them in mind for future positions. Of course people like to hire those they are familiar with. Joe Shoen knows Daboll and has observed his work first hand. If Shoen is a successful GM, he may have future needs to hire a HC. Others on the Giants that may have been part of the interview process may go elsewhere to be a GM and will remember those they have met and interviewed. I suspect that the interviews done for the Bills OC were also a sham. Their first choice was Dorsey and it's unlikely any interview would have changed that. But, what if Dorsey turned down the Bills and went to the Giants? What if he leaves next year? Then those other interviews will have been useful. Regarding the being paid to tank allegation, that should rock the NFL. It was obvious by the moves the GM made that they were tanking, but the coaches and players left on the team clearly weren't. To now state that Flores was ordered to do so is a huge issue especially with legal gambling. I never would have thought about this a week ago (and still don't believe it to be the case), but if the Bills needed to throw the game against the Chiefs with having the fewest people involved, how best to do that? How about the coach ordering the worst possible kickoff (other than kick it out of bounds which would have involved Bass being involved as well) and then the worst possible defensive lineup? Just looks like a coach choking, no player involvement, they all were trying just had a horrible play call.

To me, the issue at the end of the half was the play call. They had time for a quick throw into the end zone and still had time for a FG if it's incomplete. By throwing it to where the receiver had to run into the end zone was a guarantee that they didn't have a FG chance if he couldn't get in for the TD.

I was at the game. I thought the receiver caught it. I yelled "sxxt" punched my leg, then looked up and was confused. The board said "Interception" and I still was a bit confused because I completely missed Hyde getting there. And of course then I started celebrating.

I suspect a one off. As I understand it (or at least heard on WGR from Sal a couple of weeks ago), the current requirements are to test weekly and if positive they are on the covid list for five days if asymptomatic. Typically he suggested at the time they'd schedule the testing day so that they would have the five days before the next game. So, since they need to be activated by the day before, they would test on Tuesday. In any case, if they tested all players, they would normally put them all on the list the same day since they'd get the results the same day. The only others would be if they are actually sick (which of course can happen).

I never had and can't see me ever starting a fight over football. However, I have likely said some things that may have caused others to want to fight me. Also, I've gone to out of town games in several cities (San Diego, LA Rams, LA Chargers, Arizona) with a friend that has come very close in some of those cities.

Because of the circumstances of a mid-year replacement, he obviously had no option but to use Gruden's scheme, players, etc. and was able to take them to the playoffs. Making a change in coach other than an internal hire almost always means significant changes that are like starting over and have a dip for a couple of years. I think it would be a big mistake for the Faders to make a change after this season. They should give Bisaccia a full year to see what he does on his own.

What I read was if you claim him from waivers you can't play him this year. That's one of the reasons why it was important that he clear waivers first. Once he cleared, he can sign with any team that's still in the playoffs and play.

My memory without fact checking anything: - The defense was insane. They had not just lost Cowart, but I believe it was four significant season ending injuries during the TB game. - I have a feeling I'm mixing this up with a different year, but Wade converted from 3-4 to 4-3 midweek and kept it completely under wraps until the start of the next game against the Colts. The defense still was dominant. - Special teams was, as others stated, an all time worst. - Never heard that Ralph meddled to force DeHaven to be fired after the Music City Forward Lateral, Wade insisted that it was his plan all along to replace him with "his guy", incompetent coach / part time sex offender Ronnie Jones. - Ralph did insist Jones to be fired after the season. Wade wanted to switch him to a defensive coach and stated that Ralph was looking for an excuse to fire him, if he had complied he would have come up with new demands. We'll never know about this but personally, if Jones stayed anywhere near that team I think there would have been a total fan revolt. I remember seeing an interview with Christie sometime after that saying that Jones had no idea of setting up ST plays, what types of drills to run during practices, etc.

I'd never put it past CA politicians, anything that can be done to hurt the economy, let's do it!