billsfan89

I am spitballing too so it's just a guess on my end but I think 2019 stays strong 2020 could go either way. I think that while the Fed is super Shady in general but they are actually doing the right thing in terms of economic policy to raise rates to normal non recession levels while the economy is good. That's responsible policy under the conditions the fed operates in. I don't know enough about if there should even be a central bank in the US but if there is one than raising rates now is the proper thing to do if you are a central bank. You need high rates during a non recession to make cuts an actual stimulus during a recession. I don't think Trump wants to get rid of the fed either. I think he wants control of it because he views the fed as trying to crimp his economy. I think Trump is a corporate thinker who only sees things in quarter to quarter growth and doesn't understand why you need higher interest rates.

I think 2019 the economy will be on the sugar high of tax cuts and deregulation. Under 3% growth but significantly above 2%. 2020 will be where it gets interesting. The sugar high will be starting to fade by then 3 years into new tax rates and the fed rate hikes will not help either.

The fed should raise rates, when the economy starts to slide into a recession you need to be able to cut rates to limit the damage. Right now rates are at 2.5%. That's pretty dam low for what is not considered to be a recession. Typically non recession economies have interest rates at least above 4%. So if you have rates set well below 4% you can't really juice the economy with rate cut when things start to decline because the impact of rate cuts will be lower. I think the fed needs to have rates at least around 4% by the end of 2019 and hold them stable until a recession comes in 2020 or 2021.

Keep Shady in 2019 see if you can get one more year out of him while a mid round pick develops behind him. I am not sure Shady has that much left but I think he can be an uber third down back splitting time with Ivory and a rookie.

Lorax I think will come back for 2019 on a one year deal, Lorax hasn't collected on a large contract, in fact the two year deal he is on now is the largest deal he has ever had. So I think because he is having a good year and a one year deal around 5 million would greatly increase his career earnings I think Lorax is back. However Kyle i am 50/50 on. Kyle had collected on a major contract so money shouldn't be an issue for him. Kyle also has been a starter for 11 seasons compared to Lorax who has only been a full time player for 3. Kyle also has a long injury history. But if the Bill's finish strong I can see Kyle coming back for one more year esp if his body feels good. Kyle likes the coach and his play ( which had been regressing in recent years) has improved. Kyle's return will come down to how he feels mentally and physically. Something we can't predict.

Punting seemed OK to me. I don't get the move either.

Allen doesn't have to be Mahomes for this team to be successful in 2019 and beyond. If Allen in 2019 can be what Trubisky has been the past 5 or so games he has played I think the team will be successful. Mahomes is playing at an MVP level. His numbers are as good as any QB if not the best in the league and his team is 9-2. But the Chiefs put all their eggs into the offense not just with Mahomes but even when Smith was there. The Chiefs didn't have the balanced approach in recent years, their defense while not as bad as they seem (Berry not being there hurts them a lot) is massively flawed. The Chiefs need a league best offense to win. The Bills in 2019 likely will not. The Bears had a good defense in 2017 and put some skill position talent around Their QB while adding Roquan Smith and Mack to the defense in an all in type move. They are a much more balanced team that just needs good QB play to win. Allen I doubt will ever have a season like Mahomes is having. But he doesn't need to toss 50 TDs to be a good franchise QB. Cam Newton has never tossed more than 35 TDs and Russell Wilson has never tossed more than 34 TDs. Both of those guys are legit franchise QBs that a team can win with consistently. So people have to adjust expectations.

Bad move, the Jags need to draft a QB high up and maybe bring in a decent vet like Tyrod. They can't keep the defense together likely they will cut 2 major contracts if not 3 on the D-line. Their cap is super limited even if they let go of some of their biggest contracts they still won't be in that great of a position cap wise. The Jags are best off rebuilding their offense and starting with a new coach as opposed to trying to hold onto the 2017 team as much as possible.

Miami is home so that's 3 points schedule makes spot for home field, so Vegas basically thinks the Fins are 2.5 points better than the Bill's. I think the 5.5 comes down to 4 or 4.5. I think that the Fins aren't a bad team and this is not an easy game esp away. Overall I think it will be another close game going deep into the 4th quarter. I think the Fins win a close one, I have a bad feeling that Allen makes a bad mistake that leads to a loss. I hope I am wrong, this is a very winnable game that would keep the Bill's slim Hopes alive for one more week.

The Steelers are notorious for not giving multiple years of guarantees to non-QB players. So I imagine the issue with Bell and the Steelers was not over AAV but more so with guaranteed money. They were reportedly offering an AAV right around 15 per so to me it seems more like a case of wanting a bigger guarantee.

Players developing usually means you win some games, the Bill's sport 5 young starters on offense (Zay, Foster, Teller, Dawkins, and Allen) the Bill's are also sporting 6 young starters on defense (White, T.Johnson, Wallace, Shaq, Milano, and Edumonds) the defense also gives critical snaps to Phillips another young player. That's 11 out of 22 staters that are either first or second year players. Plus several other young players getting critical snaps on both sides of the ball. So yes there isn't really carry over momentum but young players gaining experience and developing positively is something that builds for next season.

The Colts would be Bell's best fit in my opinion, they have the most cap space, the oline, the QB, and some pass catching talent with TY and Ebron. If the Colts sign Bell and add a #2 reciever they could have the best offense in the league. I personally wouldn't want Bell for the Bill's, yes the Bill's have the cap space but I would rather they spend that money at Oline and WR much more pressing needs than RB as I would rather draft a RB in rounds 3 or 4 and stick with the vets Ivory and Shady for one more year. If I were the Colts I would sign Bell, sign a legit vet WR, resign Ebron, and make a couple big signings on defense they could have a loaded roster esp considering that they have an extra 2nd round pick that can fill even more holes with 3 picks early.

I am not sure Kyle comes back. I can see him taking another 1 year deal esp if he feels the team can be special in 2019. But in the end i think the deal will come down to how he feels physically and mentally. Kyle will get a solid 1 year offer if he wants to play.I think money or the team's future is the deciding factor

Foster should be on the 2019 roster, I think he could be a Tyler Gabriel type deep threat.I am not sure if he has the hands and skills to develop into a true all around WR1.

They might pick it up, hard to say since DEs get paid big time and 10.3 isn't a lot too pay for a starting caliber DE. But Shaq at this moment isn't worth 10.3, you would be picking that up on speculation. Then again they might just want to see how 2019 plays out and at worst franchise him.

I think they decline the option too. But if the option is reasonable and Shaq finishes the year strong I wouldn't rule it out.

Shaq is under the last year of his rookie contract in 2019, they could also option him for 2020 but I am not sure they will do it as a 5th year option is usually expensive. So I think Shaq is here for at least one more season.

The Bill's are for sure in a better spot than the Jags, the Jags spent big on free agents in 2017 and 2018 and really wanted to go for it in 2018 after making it to the AFCCG. The Jags have some nice pieces Fournette is a preimer young RB, Ramsey is a young shut down corner, a few additional young pieces are sprinkled in but for the most part they have an older team with no QB and a bad cap situation. The Bill's have a young QB in place, they have a set of preimer young LB'S In Milano and Edumonds, the Bills have their own young shut down corner in White, Dawkins and Teller look like real players on the O-line, Shaq and Phillips are young defensive line players, Zay could amount to something, and T.Johnson is a young slot corner. The Bill's will also have a windfall of cap space in 2019 to make improvements. The Jags could be looking at a complete rebuild in 2019 having to go with a rookie QB and let go of a lot of higher paid talent.

Looooooooong way to go on Allen. Fitz played with the same vigor and tenacity, not saying they are the same but rather that playing with energy is not enough. Still I can't wait to see how Allen can do with a more complete set of offensive talent around him

That's what I hope, I would love to see Gaines back here but I wouldn't be shocked to see a high pick spent on the defense

Bill's scratch out the victory, Allen looked solid for a rookie and the team looked closer to the Team they were when they played the Jets than they did to the previous games. What little dreams this season still has left is alive for one more week!

Clay has a cap hit of 4.5 million if cut. So the question is, is Charles Clay worth 4.5 million? I think considering that Clay is still a decent player and the high cost to replace him even with an average player is far above 4.5 million its likely the team will keep Clay and draft a tight end behind him to groom to take over the position in 2020. Personally I could go either way on Clay, I think at 4.5 million he is serviceable but if they decide to move on I won't be too upset.

The only positive about Murphy is that his contract is fairly easy to get out of. But they could have easily spent that money on some offensive line help instead of having a injured pass rusher.

Its fun to think that if the Bills can beat the Jags, Fins, and Jets (Certainly possible) the Bills will be sitting at 6-7 going against a beatable Lions team. But I think the Bills are going to have to win out in order to make the playoffs. That would knock the Fins out and the Bills would have to hope they get lucky with the Colts and Ravens going 3-3 or worse to end the season. But I just don't see it happening if they even just lose to the Pats.

Running backs have adapted to improve their overall value by becoming a greater part of the passing game. A true do it all back like Barkley or Bell have tremendous value. They are a threat to run it between the tackles or catch it out of the backfield (And if these backs can pass block that improves protection and makes the playbook completely open when they are on the field.) So the idea of running backs being cheap and fairly dispensable is just no longer the case because there are so few running backs that can have a high level of running between the tackles, catching the ball, bringing speed in space, and pass blocking. Which makes having a complete threat like a Barkley, Gurley, or Bell super valuable to an offense. That's why you have seen the return of Return of backs being drafted up high. But the beatings the position takes makes it somewhat of a shorter term investment and likely that even an elite back will be lucky to a big contract let alone try to get 2.