billsfan89

Personally my read on the situation is that the economy for the middle class has not improved since the 1970's. In the 1980's Reagan cut taxes and didn't cut spending. He got the top end of the economy going but the manufacturing base and middle class didn't see much overall benefit, wages stagnated. The best thing Reagan did was pursue cutting inflation which did stabilize things for your average consumer but beyond that the economy in the middle started to erode. In the 1990's Clinton raised taxes moderately but continued on the deregulation and free trade path in order to be a centrist. The economy at the top flourished but the middle class and wages did not see much benefit. Bush II cut taxes and continued with deregulation and it led to a nice sugar high where once again people at the top got rich but manufacturing and middle class wages went down. Then after the Bush years the economy hit the biggest recession in generations and Obama pushed through new deficit spending (Bush also bailed out the banks) at the same time the fed flooded the market with cheap money (QE) and low interest. It stopped the bleeding and thanks to cheap money and low interest for years the economy at the top got going but wages kept stagnating and manufacturing and middle class jobs didn't grow enough. Now Trump pumped in some tax cuts and deregulation and its taken a top of an economy that was doing good and juiced it up. But its just not resonating with the average middle class American and the policies aren't addressing longer term needs (Education, Infrastructure, Healthcare, and Energy.) The tax cuts sugar high should continue in 2019 but in 2020 and certainly by 2021 the economy will hit a recession and the fed will not only have to cut rates but it will also have to do QE again. And honestly that might not be enough to stop the bleeding.

If a trade down isn't available I wouldn't mind taking a mauler RT. RT is just as important as LT these days (often times the best pass rusher will be lined up against the RT) and although there are a lot of O-line players available in free agency there aren't too many top tackles available. The best players are along the interior O-line. I agree that if Oliver or Bosa fall take them but assuming the Bills are picking between 5-9 getting an a young O-line player on the right side to bookend with Dawkins for the next 5-7 years will greatly help the team solidify the O-line. I think they can address WR in round 2 (in addition to supplementing free agency/trade) and nab a running back in round 3 or 4. I am optimistic about the teams ability to address major needs on offense and supplement the defense with talent. I don't expect a huge splurge in free agency but I think they sign 2 major players on offense and a significant player on defense via free agency and then going hard on offense during the draft. Considering how good this regime appears to be at drafting I think a trade down isn't a bad idea but unless the QB draft class is stronger than projected it might be a case where no team in the middle or back of the first round needs a top 10 pick that badly.

If Edmunds turns out to be a consistent probowler for 5-7 years then the pick will be worth it. The Bills swapped an early 3rd for a mid 5th to trade up to 16 to take him, that's a significant cost but its not tragic to move up to take a prospect you think is elite. Value is a valid concern but a modest trade up to acquire an elite player is not something a team will likely regret.

Cousins did what he was supposed to do with the Vikings but the Vikings regressed defensively and along the O-line. Cousins is a pocket passer with some mobility, he needs at the very least a decent O-line to protect him. The Vikings O-line in 2017 wasn't special but they were decent, they didn't do too much to improve it in 2018 other than add a 2nd round pick to it. Now the Vikings have the worst O-line in football and their defense went from top 2 to 11. The Vikings overpaid for Cousins because they were so desperate for a QB to go with a roster they thought boasted elite receivers (It does), a solid running back combo (It does), a decent O-line (turned out to be a disaster of an O-line), and a dominant defense (defense turned out to be good but far from great.) Without those other elite components the Vikings regress to where the Lions were last year. The Vikings in 2019 are going to have to make some hard choices with their cap. They probably are going to have to let defensive starters Sheldon Richardson and Anthony Barr go in free agency and they might have to let go of one of their bigger defensive contracts too. They do have a little fat to cut but mostly they would be lucky to only have to cut marginal talent and maybe retain Barr. The Vikings are going to have to have a big impact draft class in 2019 (Probably need 2 O-line starters) and pull some cap magic to retain Barr and maybe get lucky signing a low cost vet or two.

I will admit I was a Rosen over Allen guy, although I did understand why the Bills made the pick I was still concerned the Bills fell for a big arm instead of a more complete prospect. I would still say the jury is still out on both. If the Bills had a do over based off their rookie years they stick with Allen 11 times out of 10. That being said their careers could still shake out either way, so I don't think Bills fans should anoint Allen anything just yet nor should anyone consider Rosen a bust yet.

Brown would have been a 10 year starter in the 80's, 90's. or early to mid 00's. He was fundamentally sound against the run (Always went to the right hole and made the plays that were run at him), he was big enough and strong to not get mauled by most offensive lines (he was able to hold the point of attack) and honestly he seemed to be able to captain the defense in terms of calls and adjustments by all accounts. However he was never an elite run defender (I would say he was average to slightly above average) and he was piss poor in pass coverage. In a game where a balanced offense is 40% running you need your 3 down MLB to be at least capable in pass coverage (While being elite in run defense.) Edumods on the other hand is pretty good in pass coverage as a rookie and has the physical tools to be an elite player in terms of pass coverage. Edumnds also shows the ability to play the run well in terms of physicality and speed. Edumnds needs to round out in terms of his instincts, he will hit the wrong holes and miss on some plays in between and outside the tackles. He also needs to polish his coverage a bit more (He is relying on speed and length in coverage as he can be out of place.) Edmunds mistakes and flaws are more so a product of his raw nature and youth. Edmunds on the back half of the season has played a lot better than he did in his first 5-6 games where he looked outright lost at times. So I think people frustrated with Edmunds struggles are forgetting that Brown was what he was and his style of play was not exactly conducive to high end production in the NFL at the MLB position.

One year in no team has buyers remorse unless the pick was considered a huge unfathomable reach. All 5 rookie QB's went in appropriate draft slots. Rosen over Allen you could argue but Allen was a prospect that would have been drafted in the top 10. So no there is no buyers remorse from any teams just yet. Now year 2 if a QB doesn't start to at least progress beyond their rookie production then you start to have buyers remorse.

One game does not a season make, any defense has bad games where they give up a bad clutch drives. Even the Bears defense (a defense most consider to be the best or among the best) got 30 points hung on them by the Giants with several long clutch drives last week, they also gave up 31 points to the Fins earlier in the year. When analyzing a defense you have to take a look at more than just one or two games. You can argue they are a good but far from elite defense and make a compelling case. However your argument has to be better than well in this one game they stunk.

People kind of forget with 3 games left there is very little a coaching change can accomplish. A coach has 3 weeks to implement new techniques and schemes, that just isn't likely to do much if anything. A change early in the season at least offers the team a chance to change scheme with months to turn things around. If this team was in a playoff push I would say they should fire the ST coach as you have to try and do something even if it is on the margins. But there is no need for such a worthless move in a lost season. Fire the coach in the off-season.

I have watched all 32 teams play this season in at least one game so I have at least given the eyeball test to each team once. You can look at defensive stats and defensive analytics to compare how the Bills grade out generally. I feel confident in saying that there aren't 10 defensive units better than the Bills. Right now I would say that the Bears, Cowboys, and Ravens defenses are better than the Bills. Then there are about 4-5 that are in that arguable similar range.

Is the defense the best defense in the league? No. Is the defense a top 10 unit in the league? Yes. Is the defense a top 5 unit in the league? Arguable. The defense to me ranks somewhere in the 4-8 range. Its a dam good unit maybe even a borderline elite unit, however it is not the best in the league. I think there is much potential as the young players get their wings this season to take the unit into next year and with an upgrade at one or two positions and some depth additions the defense can be firmly in the top 3 units in the league.

I see the McD vs. Jauron comparison and I don't quite see it. McD played uber conservative against the Jets, but he generally has shown to be much more aggressive than Jauron was in both game management and in scheme. McD's defense is much more attacking and aggressive in general. McD has also made more aggressive decisions too. So I don't see why these comparisons get brought up more and more.

The last step that separates a talented 8-8 to 10-6 team that hopes to win a playoff game from a 11+ title contender is closing out games. In the NFL if you have a high degree of talent games usually come down to a few plays towards the end of games. Super Bowl teams know how to close out games. McBeane is going to have to address the lack of talent on offense and patch a hole or two on defense while McD has to take a step up as a head coach and insure that his teams are prepared consistently for as many situations as possible.

Special teams has been below average all season, the spectacular play of Haush has kind of made things seem better than they are too. If the Bills had a mid-level or worse kicker they would be among the worst special teams units in the league. If the Bills want to make a big leap next year they have to address special teams in a big way, you have the kicker which is the hardest component to get so grabbing a new coach, new punter, and sprinkling in a couple of versatile specialists is fairly easy to in terms of resources.

The Jets game was kind of the perfect loss for lack of a better phrase The mistakes that lost the game were mostly on the special teams unit (which is an easy unit to fix resources wise, esp when you have a good kicker in place) and the game showcased a lot of positive features of the team (Although some negative ones too.) The loss of course not only helps with draft position but it also helps that the Jets get lower in the draft too. Overall I am not too distraught about the loss other than the Milano injury.

Holmes was a JAG who was older and pretty much was what he was at this point of his career. Better off for the Bills to let him go elsewhere and use those snaps on younger players. Glad to see he caught on as he might not have that much longer in the league.

I believe so, Miller and Groy are very expendable sadly I think Miller after a promising start to his career has been ruined by the scheme (Maybe he can turn it around on another team.) Mills I would like to possibly see back as a backup but I am not really going to hate it if they go with a younger player on the bench.

Penalties - Its not that amount of penalties (I don't know how you legislate lower amount of penalties without resulting in a bunch of missed calls) but rather it should be about consistency in the rules. Rules - Changing rules year to year is fairly common in sports leagues. I don't have an issue with tweaking things. The rules of the NFL and how they are enforced aren't set in stone they are subject to adjustment. Taunting and Celebrations - No one liked the No Fun League the loosening of the celebration rules are a good thing. It allows the players to have a personality. I think the biggest issue with the NFL is the Thursday Night Games and the lack of consistent enforcement in the games. The Thursday games have overexposed the product and resulted in most bad games played on Thursdays. The players hate it a lot of fans don't like it. It used to be that after Monday NFL football went away. If you are a college fan and an NFL fan it used to be that you got a 4 day break between Monday and Saturday games. Now football is just on all days of the week and its causing fatigue among the audience. I also think the lack of consistency and innovation in rules is lacking which is hurting in the product.

Jury still out? I think Allen has the potential to be a top 5 QB in the league. Allen has the size and mobility you want, he has arguably the strongest arm in the league, he also has a very quick and compact release. The question is will Allen develop his footwork and decision making? If Allen doesn't develop that decision making and footwork he won't develop the accuracy and approach to the game needed to be a high end starting caliber QB. I hope to see Allen take a step up next year when he has a year under his belt and hopefully the team massively upgrades the offensive talent around him.

The cap savings on Shady are significant, I think cutting Shady does give the team 7+ million in cap space. However you probably would have to give a upper tier free agent RB 7 million aav with a significant bonus anyway. Shady on a one year deal might be better since the backs on the open market that would fall into that sensible range (Basically anyone not named Lev Bell) might not rep[resent much of an upgrade over Shady at age 31. I think there does need to be a RB drafted in rounds 3-5 at the very least. This team can't go into the season with two older backs in Shady and Ivory without having a young high potential back behind them.

I am not shocked that some team would want to kick the tires on KB. Teams are very thirsty for WR play and there aren't many decent WR's on the market so bringing a guy in for a workout who just hit the market makes sense.

Zay will probably finish the year with about 50-55 receptions, 600 plus yards, and 5-6 TD's, that's with one of the worst QB situations in the league throwing to him. That's a legit NFL WR right there. Those numbers alone without any context are better than average WR3 numbers but factoring in the context of the season that's even more impressive. If Zay can be a solid WR2 that 2017 draft will have provided 2 good to great starters on both sides of the ball all at fairly critical positions.

Lorax should be brought back. I think he will probably command about 6 million a year and would be easily worth it. Dude has 6.5 sacks with 4 games left to play and he plays at the LB position for a lot of snaps. He also is by all accounts a great locker room guy and adds tremendous versatility to the defense being able to anchor the line backer position and play DE and DT in pass rushing situations.

I don't think Richardson fits the McBeane mold (Seemed to have issues on his way out with the Jets) and I think that assuming Kyle retires the Bills could resign Jordan Cameron and draft a mid round rookie to have 3 proven DT's in rotation and add a young player too. Personally my blueprint for the off-season would be to fill 3 or more offensive needs via free agency and add a starter to the defense via free agency. Then add as much offense talent early in the draft to supplement the improved offense. My targets would be listed below. Resign Lorax and Cameron (I assume Kyle retires, if Kyle wants back sign him too) the rest of the depth free agents can stay or go but those 2-3 would be critical to retain. 1- Matt Pradis and Rodger Saffold - I think you can easily justify 20+ million on signing two high end veteran starters on the offense. Yes they are older (which is why I would make sure both deals are easy to get out of after 2 seasons) but O-line players tend to play well through age 33 so its a position that you can justify signing a 30 and 31 year old at. 2- Tyrell Williams or Golden Tate - This is another position that is in desperate need of help. 10+ million should be spent to find a high end starting caliber receiver. 3- Trade for Mo Sanu or another veteran receiver - Much like the O-line you need a lot of help here. Mo Sanu was rumored to be available at the trade deadline and would make for a good steady slot receiver while Zay and your other free agent acquisition hold down the outside. 4- Sign EJ Gaines. The Bills probably would have spent 50 million or more to sign and trade for those 4 players on offense and resigning those two defensive players. However the Bills with 90 million in cap space (and easily another 10 million they can free up by cutting some fat on the roster) can afford to do that and go out and sign Gaines back to fill the CB2 need. If the Bills add Gaines and keep Lorax and Kyle/Cameron the Bills are looking at a very complete defensive unit. The Bills can and should draft defensive depth in rounds 4-6 with those extra picks. In the draft I would go BPA round 1 although if I had my pick of position regardless of prospect value I would love to see the Bills nab a RT high. Solidify the last starter you need along the O-line. Then in round 2 grab a tight end (I would keep Clay for one last year and let a prospect beat him out but I wouldn't be sad to see Clay go) and another young receiver in round 3. Grab a running back in round 4 to be the heir apparent to Shady (who I would keep for one more year) and then with the other 4th and your 5th round picks grab up some defensive depth (DT, Safety, DE/pass rush and LB are areas where defensive depth can be addressed.) That's the way I am approaching the off-season hoping to use the cap space to take several critical needs off the board (OL and WR heavily) and retain and add some talent to the defense. Then fill in the draft to address what needs remain. I hope McBeane is aggressive in free agency, the cap space is what you sacrificed a lot of talent for now you need to go out and use it.

Spending massively while you have a QB on a rookie contract is the best way to take advantage of a under market value QB and puts the QB in the best position to have success and develop. The Rams added Wintworth to the O-line, and Sammy, Woods, and Kupp to the receiving core all in one off-season. The Bears added Burton, Allen Robinson, Gabrielle, and DJ Moore to the pass catching core all in one off-season (While adding Mack a major piece to the defense.) The Eagles added Alshon Jeffery, Blount, and traded for Jay Ajai to an already pretty stacked team to make sure that Wentz had better offensive talent around him in year two. Even the Chiefs spent on adding Sammy to help make Mahomes have a more complete WR core. The Bills should be aggressive this off-season. Yes the Colts, Browns, Jets, Cardinals and some other teams will have cap space and a big need to surround a QB with O-line and WR talent. So the Bills will have to over pay heavily for O-line and WR talent and certainly at least 2 out of the 3 high draft picks will have to be spent on the offensive side of the ball. But I think that in order to make Allen be successful the team needs to pay up for talent.