billsfan89

If Josh stopped developing his play would be the quality of a Fitz type fringe starter (a guy whose success is heavily dependent on the talent around him) but luckily he just continues to develop in various aspects. If Josh continues to make better decisions and "force" the ball less (as he has the past 3 games) those turnover to TD margins will improve. If Josh can find his touch on the deep ball his overall success and passing numbers should improve. How good he can be is going to come down to how he can develop his deep ball accuracy and fine tune the aspects of his game he has already improved significantly. A lot of the crazier fans were projecting a Mahomes like second season (completely ignoring that Mahomes had multiple elite weapons around him in addition to a good O-line) for Josh. But I think the more reality based fans had a sense that Josh's season was going to look more like Trubisky's season with the Bears last year. Which I think it has from a "stats" perspective. But Josh on film looks to be showcasing more dynamic traits and consistent week to week improvement.

Personally I thought that the Bills would be an 8-9 win team this year, with 10-11 wins being an optimistic scenario. Right now I think they are on pace for 10 wins with 11 if they can sweep the next 3 or take an upset in that tough 4 game stretch weeks 13-16. But 10 wins certainly seems plausible. My expectations where that the team added enough talent (they overhauled the O-line and added some legit offensive weapons) to the offense to take it from one of the worst in the league to an at least decent or below average unit. I thought the defense returned mostly the same unit but with more experience and the defense would be a top 10 unit. I also did think that Andre Roberts was a smart addition to solidify a weak point in special teams with an All-Pro type player which would improve a below average ST unit to a decent one. What I like about this team is that they are built with sustained winning in mind. This team doesn’t have many bad contracts they can’t get out of, Mitch, Hughes, Brown and Star are the only massive contract the Bills can’t get out of (Mitch and Brown are performing at high levels and Hughes is still a productive player.) Even Star’s contract (which carries 7.8 million in dead money if cut in 2020) could be June 1stdesignated which would spread that hit to 3.4 million in 2020 and 2021 thus saving 6.6 million in 2020 if needed. Kroft and Murphy both can be cut with minimal cap hits. If the team cuts Murphy and Kroft the team enters into 2020 win 102 million in cap space. Even if they peel off 45 million to take care of their own future extensions they could still add a prime time pass rusher and another starting piece and some depth while not further impacting their cap long term. So this isn’t an all in type season. This is in my opinion possibly the beginning of a 2-4 year run of contention.

The fact that you can return a blocked PAT for a 2pt conversion is enough of an incentive to block the kick beyond stopping the conversion. I don't hate the idea but it is an esoteric enough situation where more merit is not needed.

Pretty accurate assessment, really appreciate the effort you put into this. Right now this team just has to take care of the teams that they should be able to beat. They need to win 2 out of the next 3 to push them to 8-3. They play a tough stretch of games At Cowboys, At NE, Ravens, At Pitt where they could easily go 1-3. But if they stand at 8-3 a 1-3 stretch puts them at 9-6 heading into a home game against the Jets. I think 9 wins might get you the 6th seed but certainly 10 wins punches a ticket. Overall just keep winning these games against softer opponents and you will be fine. Also as a fact check Jerry Hughes has 2.5 sacks this season.

Josh is on pace for 3,300 yards passing, 500 yards rushing, 60.9% completion percentage, 20 passing TD's, 8 rushing TD's, 14 INT's, 4 fumbles lost, and a 12-4 record. That all being said that's not a bad improvement in year two thus far. 28 TD's (rushing and passing) against 18 turnovers is not an ideal scoring to turnover ratio. However I think that his decision making has been growing week to week. I think his most recent turnovers have been more of a result bad play calling due to designed run calls that make no sense. But his accuracy in the short and intermediate game has been impressive thus far, I also think that his game overall has been massively improving in many respects. I also think that it is fair to say that while the offensive talent around him isn't bad it isn't great either. Josh has no true number one WR and no true consistent TE in the passing game either. One concern with Josh is the deep ball which just hasn't been there as of this season. I think his adjusting his game to be more touch based and accuracy based in the short range has thrown off his deep ball touch. But I hope that as he get more comfortable with his short and intermediate game. TLDR: By the numbers you see a typical "Year Two" QB some improvement, some flaws, and a long way to go but possibly getting there.

I would say the defense is above average, they were elite top 3 in the league through 5 games, the last 3 games they have ranged from average (Skins and Fins considering those teams talent levels) and poor (Eagles.) So overall through 8 games I would put the defense as having performed at a top 10 rate overall. The offense I will agree has been slightly below average. Not tragic like last season, they can move the ball and even somewhat consistently esp against weaker defenses. But the offense has a growing QB who is a bit turnover prone and the lack of an elite WR1 hampers the team against better defenses. The special teams has been above average. Good kicking game, very strong return game, solid on kick/punt coverage but very very poor on the punting game (the one big blemish of the unit is Bojo.) I also think that this team is just very well coached and that gives them an edge over a lot of teams. They play good situational football and don't let mistakes frazzle them and they play disciplined. I know this teams penalty stats are mid level or worse (They rank 21st in penalties per game and 15th in penalty yards) but their penalties don't seem to come at in opportune times for the most part. They also play smart situationally. I think overall this team is an above average team feasting on a bad schedule. But that's what you have to do in the NFL to get to double digit wins. I think people also have to stay clam and remember that this team has the cap space and cap flexibility going forward to resign their own players and add a piece or two to go along with continuing to build through the draft. This isn't a situation like the Bears this year where they gutted their cap and draft assets to infuse their team with a lot of talent. The Bills added a lot of talent and depth but didn't go crazy with spending either.

The Browns are still a talented team desperate for a win. They also can run the ball which makes them matchup well against the defense. Toss in the fact that this is an away game and I can easily see this being a down to the wire type game. Now a loss in Cleveland still leaves the Bills at 6-3 with 2 favored games and still leaves them on pace to go 10-6. But if you win in Cleveland you set yourself up to go 9-2 going into that horrid 4 game stretch (At Dallas, At NE, Ravens, and At Pitt.) So I think this game is not a must win but a win that the team really could and should get. As talented as the Browns are they are completely dysfunctional. They are poorly coached, coming apart at the seams, and they are not playing up to their talent level. If the Bills can gameplan to stop the run and use the teams secondary as a strength then they can game manage the offense into a close McD type win.

I agree that this team is leaving at least 2-4 "easy" first downs on the table by not using Cole more. He easily should be getting at least 8-10 targets per-game. The last 4 games he has averaged less than 5.

Phillips is earning the time, Oliver hasn't been tragic but he hasn't been great either. I think for a rookie Oliver has earned some snaps but if a player ahead of him is playing significantly better you can fully justify lowering his snap count. I think Oliver should be used as a pass rushing specialist. It is clear to me that Ed (like other posters have mentioned) needs a full NFL off-season of strength training and conditioning to add a little bit more weight without losing speed. I think Ed will be a great player in this league one day but as a rookie he has had his ups and downs. As far as Phillips I love the way he has played. But would I hand him a big contract? I don't know, honestly that's the kind of thing you have to be in the locker room to see how he has handled himself and hope that it was Miami that led him to being a malcontent and not his own nature. I think there are plenty of snaps to put Taylor in there more while still having Oliver get passing down snaps. I would rather play Star a bit less and put Taylor in there.

The run defense and the offense not having that killer instinct to put games away. Those are the two main concerns. Not sure what could be done to address those issues.

WR1, RT and Edge Rush are the top needs that will require major FA dollars or a high draft pick to fill. Finding a run stuffing DT shouldn't be hard to do (although they wiffed big on Star), finding a between the tackles runner isn't hard to do. OLB is a need but I think they can bring Lorax back for one more season in 2020 and draft one in the mid rounds (they also have V.Joseph coming back after his red shirt year.) Even RT which I would classify as a need isn't tragic as I think Ty is a decent RT. I think they more than likely can roll with Ty for one more season and draft an RT in rounds 2-4 to back him up. Guard I wouldn't even put on the list as I think you can let Spain walk (he has been a JAG) and kick Ford into the guard spot and roll with Felicano as the other guard. You also have Long and Bates as depth. Maybe they draft one late but I don't see it as an issue.

Feliciano has been really good, I think they can kick Ford inside to take over for Spain. Maybe draft or bring in some depth but the guard position isn't a major concern. RT is a need as Ty is OK and older. Probably address RT in rounds 2-4 next year.

Venture firms always want to pump online content spheres to be the next big thing like VICE. But that's just not realistic for a site like Deadspin. So they do two things 1- Spend a lot of money to pump up the revenue and hope to dump it or 2- Cut costs to the bone and bleed things dry. They did the second option and the staff saw what happened to Sports Illustrated and made the move early.

People can complain about the politics in sports but most of their articles were sports related. Maybe 10 to 15% weren't. I actually get the argument of stick to sports as there are few sanctuaries away from politics but the site in its most popular days always had political articles which were often their most popular pieces. The issue stems from venture capital firms wanting insane returns on investments. Deadspin is a sports blog with a good readership but it was never going to be a business that delivered a 10 to 1 return on investment. The site was profitable under their original ownership but it was never going to grow into Vice or anything like that. It was a profitable enterprise but much like a lot of things venture capitalists touch making a nice profit isn't enough. The new management pushed their agenda because they wanted to cut costs and make the site inflate his value.

I am not surprised that the Bills didn't claim him. His talent level is not that grand anymore and the reports of him being a bit lazy up in New England don't really fit with the Bills culture. I wouldn't be surprised to see Houston claim him as they are in a desperate win now mode. But I don't see Gordon as much of an upgrade over the younger players the Bills could plug in there.

I think he is probably stating that there wasn't a reasonably priced trade to be had. I don't think that there were any trade deadlines from the previous administration to compare it to. But the point stands that you don't need to make a move if one isn't out there to be had.

I think the Bills are a somewhat "soft" 5-2. The Jets and Titans kickers could be viewed as having gifted those games to the Bills. The Bengals and Dolphins are horrid teams that the Bills had to make comebacks on. They played the Patriots tough no small task even in a one possession loss. The Bills also took care of the Giants fairly easily. But the Bills did get smacked by the Eagles in their other loss. Overall in the NFL you are what your record says you are and more often than not if you win the games you are supposed to win you are going to finish with a winning record (especially with this teams schedule.) The Way I look at it is if the Bills can win 3 out of the next 4 they will be set up to win 10 games which is good enough for a playoff spot. 10 games plus a playoff game would be an excellent way for the culture and team confidence to improve. The Bills are maneuvered enough cap wise to take care of their own talent via extensions and add a piece or two to the existing roster. I see no reason why the Bills couldn't take care of key players like Milano, White, and Dawkins to new deals while also grabbing an elite pass rusher and maybe another starting caliber piece via free agency. They can then add a WR and a RT via the draft to bolster the offense while further loading up on depth via the back and middle portions of the draft.

This team has much better depth and overall talent than the 2008 and for sure 2011 teams. I also think that the team is much better coached overall than those two teams. I think 10 wins is super realistic. If they win 3 out of the next 4 that puts them at 8-3. They then have a tough stretch against the Cowboys, Pats, Ravens, and Steelers, even if they go 1-3 they enter into week 17 against the Jets at home at 9-6. I think ideally you want to win the next 4 (the only tough game you have is against the Browns which is a game you should be favored or a push away.) But even if you get a loss in there it still sets up you to a realistic path to 10 wins and a likely playoff spot. I think this roster is simply better built than the past 5-1 teams that disappointed.

The increase to the military budget was 80 billion dollars and the tax cuts added about 200 billion to the deficit. That's nearly 300 billion added to the deficit that is completely self inflicted by the Trump administration's policies. The argument isn't that there would be no deficit because of the factors you mentioned but that Trump has ramped them up by 35% or more.

Honestly activating Taylor and cutting Peko is the only move roster wise the Bills can make that would have some sort of impact. The trade deadline passed and there wasn't a trade to be had and there isn't a vet on the market that can help. I think the odds of Taylor being anything more than a marginal upgrade are slim but at this point Peko is not a starting caliber or even rotation player. Taylor has at least a chance to offer you some improvement at a weaker point of the roster. I also think that Taylor is a bit better than your average PS player. He played well in his time in Miami although both his first two seasons were cut short by injury. I don't see the harm in trying something with the DT position.

I think The Rams spoiled the trade market giving up two firsts and a 4th for Ramsey. A lot of the teams holding the big players like Washington and Cincy were hoping to get a ridiculous return for their players based off of the inflated values other teams got for their players. I think it is unfortunate that Cincy was not open for business as Billings would have been a good grab to give the defense some reinforcements at a reasonable price. But to me it was clear that the only deals out on the market were overpays that would not have suited the interests of the team long term and would not have improved the team enough in the short term.

Next year’s WR class is looking very good according to the people who project these things. The other big need this team has (edge rusher) is likely going to be filled in free agency as there look to be a number of good edge rushers out on the market and the Bills have the cap space to go after a big fish and a couple of other modest contracts while not impacting their ability to secure their own talent to extensions. So if they take care of the pass rush in free agency WR will be the biggest need on the roster come the draft and in a supposedly good WR class that all lines up for them to add a WR early in the draft. I think in round 2 they then go to RT or TE to add another piece around Josh but WR will be a big add in the draft as it just lines up for the Bills to take one.

Dam didn't see that. I am shocked the Boys didn't pull the trigger on it. They might as well go for it this year since they are going to run up against massive cap issues.

The Cowboys are willing to give up a 1st and 3rd which seems fair for a good young safety but I don't think they are willing to give up two firsts like the Jets probably want. I would bet on it not happening. Maybe if the boys give up a 1st in 2020 and a 2nd in 2021 but not likely.

I would say that there is only a 30% chance a trade comes in. I think they want to do a trade for a WR and a DT but I don't think they want to give up a whole lot. I would love to see a 5th for Billings out of Cincy, low cost move that helps the defense become more stout up the middle and his deal is expiring. I would also like to see a trade for a WR but that is just not likely to happen. AJ hasn't played a snap this season and has been declining for multiple seasons. I don't see them ponying up anything more than a 3rd rounder for him and I think Cincy balks at anything less than a 1st. I think if a trade does happen it is going to be for a DT not a WR.