TNF - Bucs/Falcons (Not that anyone cares)

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

5 minutes ago, dhg said:

But they could have made it 28-21. One score game. Instead, by going for 2 and missing it became a two score game

 

It was still a 1 score game at 28-20. Obviously that's dependent on them converting the next 2 pointer though. 

 

I think the math is fairly simple in this scenario. If you're down by 14 in the 4th Q you should always go for 2. If you have a 40% chance of converting (somewhat less than league average) the odds look like this:

 

40% chance of converting the first 2 pt conversion leading to a large advantage (win on the next TD+PAT)

36% chance of failing both 2 point conversions leading to a large disadvantage  (2 point deficit)

24% chance failing the 1st 2 point conversion and succeeding on the 2nd leading to a tie

[dhg]

22 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

It was still a 1 score game at 28-20. Obviously that's dependent on them converting the next 2 pointer though. 

 

I think the math is fairly simple in this scenario. If you're down by 14 in the 4th Q you should always go for 2. If you have a 40% chance of converting (somewhat less than league average) the odds look like this:

 

40% chance of converting the first 2 pt conversion leading to a large advantage (win on the next TD+PAT)

36% chance of failing both 2 point conversions leading to a large disadvantage  (2 point deficit)

24% chance failing the 1st 2 point conversion and succeeding on the 2nd leading to a tie

I understand that. But if you kick the 1 you don't worry about having to go for 2 pt conversion. Take it to OT worst case

[djp14150]

1 hour ago, dhg said:

But they could have made it 28-21. One score game. Instead, by going for 2 and missing it became a two score game

8 pts is not a 2 score game.  

[BearNorth]

Just curious since we played both and lost to the Falcons and beat the Bucs, would this game affect the Bills deep in the weeds of tiebreakers for seeds?

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

2 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Just curious since we played both and lost to the Falcons and beat the Bucs, would this game affect the Bills deep in the weeds of tiebreakers for seeds?

Indeed!  Agreed!

[boyst]

first round of playoffs....left Pitts on the bench over Ferguson.

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

My lone painful thought after watching (and falling asleep during) the game was drafting Sammy Glasskins over Mike Evans 😡😡😡😡

[eball]

43 minutes ago, boyst said:

first round of playoffs....left Pitts on the bench over Ferguson.

 

Dude, I did the same for Kincaid.  It was a coin flip.

 

[L Ron Burgundy]

Bowles I think clinched getting fired at season's end barring a deep playoff run.

[entropyrules]

 

1 hour ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

My lone painful thought after watching (and falling asleep during) the game was drafting Sammy Glasskins over Mike Evans 😡😡😡😡

yes looking back that really hurt..plus passing on K. Mack

[mannc]

1 hour ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

My lone painful thought after watching (and falling asleep during) the game was drafting Sammy Glasskins over Mike Evans 😡😡😡😡

The list of players the Bills could have drafted instead of Watkins is not limited to Evans…Odell Beckham, K Mack, Aaron Donald, Brandin Cooks (!)…hell, the list of guys they could have drafted without trading up is sickening…

Edited 1 hour ago by mannc

[zow2]

I believe Bowles' defense had Atl in 3rd and 28, and 4th and 14 on the Falcons winning drive.  We can only imagine the nuclear meltdown here if the Bills defense allowed that at the end of an important game.  I can see why Bowles melted down.

[TheFunPolice]

11 hours ago, DapperCam said:

What a sloppy game. Atlanta is probably right there with the Panthers and Bucs if Cousins started the whole season.

 

Agreed!

 

Penix is horrible, and looks like a trebuchet launching rocks with that windup and exaggerated throwing motion. He made some plays here and there, but he's never going to be great IMO. 

 

Atlanta totally wasted that 1st round pick and mismanaged their roster. They paid Cousins a huge contract then cut his legs out a month later instead of building the team to win. A QB in his mid 30's could have 5 solid seasons left. 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

3 hours ago, BearNorth said:

Just curious since we played both and lost to the Falcons and beat the Bucs, would this game affect the Bills deep in the weeds of tiebreakers for seeds?

Tie breakers within a division:

 

1) Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).

2) Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.

3) Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.

4) Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

5) Strength of victory in all games.

6) Strength of schedule in all games.

 

The Bucs losing hurts us in the strength of victory tiebreaker