Can the Bills win out?

[27yankees]

Game Planning, focus, and desire will push them through the schedule. 13-4 baby!!!!

[Chaos]

The math does not make winning out seem likely. Lets aggressively assume the bills are 90% likely to win all the games except that Patriots game and the liklihood in the patriots game is 60% the Bills will win.

90% x 60% x 90% x 90% x 90% = 39% probability of winning out based on the agressive paramaters given.  

Then assuming we are  wild card in the playoffs, and it would take three road wins and a neutral site win to win the super bowl.  Even though the Bills road playoff history assumes we might not be favored in any road games, lets assume the bills have a 70% chance to win each of the four games. 

70% x 70% x 70% 70% = 24%.     

having to win three instead of four is such a huge advantage for the #1 seed. Add on the guarantee of playing the lowest remaing seed in the two playoff games, and the extra week rest and prep time, it is just gigantic.   In a year where no AFC team is standing out, the team that gets the #1 seed is probably the favorite to go to the super bowl. 

Edited 1 hour ago by Chaos

[SCBills]

Yes.. I actually think their toughest game will be this Sunday against the Bengals given the Cinci Offense will be at full strength and they’re coming in with a ton of hope behind Burrow’s return. 
 

If we win that, I think we win out. 
 

We still have issues, but everyone in the AFC does.. and Philly, while ultra-talented, is meh.  Their Defense isn’t what it was last year and Hurts shouldn’t scare anyone. 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

2 minutes ago, SCBills said:

...I actually think their toughest game will be this Sunday against the Bengals given the Cinci Offense will be at full strength and they’re coming in with a ton of hope behind Burrow’s return. 
 

True, but in a cost saving measure, Mike Brown is renting school buses rather than chartering a flight, and he's charging premium rates for in trip snacks and juice boxes.  The man really knows how to beat down morale...but save a buck. 

[BearNorth]

4 minutes ago, Chaos said:

The math does not make winning out seem likely. Lets aggressively assume the bills are 90% likely to win all the games except that Patriots game and the liklihood in the patriots game is 60% the Bills will win.

90% x 60% x 90% x 90% x 90% = 39% probability of winning out based on the agressive paramaters given.  

Then assuming we are  wild card in the playoffs, and it would take three road wins and a neutral site win to win the super bowl.  Even though the Bills road playoff history assumes we might not be favored in any road games, lets assume the bills have a 70% chance to win each of the four games. 

70% x 70% x 70% 70% = 24%.     

having to win three instead of four is such a huge advantage for the #1 seed. Add on the guarantee of playing the lowest remaing seed in the two playoff games, and the extra week rest and prep time, it is just gigantic.   In a year where no AFC team is standing out, the team that gets the #1 seed is probably the favorite to go to the super bowl. 

There is a stats professor Massey who rates all the teams and their win probabilities.  He has the Bills at 77% vs. Cinci; 57%@NE; 80%@ Cleve; 62% Eagles; 85% Jests, cross multiply and you get 18% probability of running the table.  He also has the Pats losing to Bills and Ravens, so we get into tie breakers.

[Mister Defense]

Yes, they can and I expect them to as well---

 

BUT only if McDermott does what he likely did this past week, after another dismal defensive performance in the first half last week.

 

That it, take complete control, including all practices, of the defense from here on out.  With Babbich reduced to only a second hand assistant, if that.

 

Each time the Bills get stomped on by an offense, each time they beat the tar of the Bills' defense, it seems McD takes over the show and they then have games in which they look like a top defense, as opposed to a disorganized, unprepared joke, capable of making average QBs and running backs look like Hall of Famers.

 

Babbich is gone for sure after this year, so why prolong the Bills agony any longer--and risk losing even more games because of his incompetence?

 

Time to cut bait with this guy, and give the Bills the chance to save their season.

 

[finn]

Reasons for optimism: Allen, all three running backs, Cooks, Hawkes, offensive line, McDermott taking over as defensive coordinator, overall veteran moxie, Benford, Bosa, Hawkes, Gilman.

 

Reasons for pessimism: Milano, Poyer, Bernard, Brady, Coleman, another six Kincaid injuries forthcoming, decline/misuse of Shakir, Brady. (Did I mention Brady?)

[Jrb1979]

7 hours ago, steven50 said:

ya that is the point, because if you say "the bills are not a championship team " then it should be easy to point to what you consider a championship team, otherwise your just throwing out sound bites. If you don't no what is a "championship team" this year then your comment is pointless.

 

A championship team is none of the AFC teams.  From watching games around the league, whatever AFC team makes it to the Super Bowl, it's going to be a similar result to last season. The NFC team blowing out the AFC team. 

 

I'm sorry an AFC championship isn't good enough. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

Can they? Yes.  

 

Will they...

 

 

Depends on injuries and game planning.  We gotta be able to throw the ball

[finn]

3 minutes ago, Mister Defense said:

Yes, they can and I expect them to as well---

 

BUT only if McDermott does what he likely did this past week, after another dismal defensive performance in the first half last week.

 

That it, take complete control, including all practices, of the defense from here on out.  With Babbich reduced to only a second hand assistant, if that.

 

Each time the Bills get stomped on by an offense, each time they beat the tar of the Bills' defense, it seems McD takes over the show and they then have games in which they look like a top defense, as opposed to a disorganized, unprepared joke, capable of making average QBs and running backs look like Hall of Famers.

 

Babbich is gone for sure after this year, so why prolong the Bills agony any longer--and risk losing even more games because of his incompetence?

 

Time to cut bait with this guy, and give the Bills the chance to save their season.

 

Sounds good. But you misspelled "Brady." 

[Paup 1995MVP]

8 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

Doubtful. Pittsburg is not some world beater. Don’t get me wrong. It was a great win that we needed but it’s just true. Neither their defense nor offense is great. They have some great players but not a great team on either side of the ball. 
 

I think we could if we get at least one tackle back and Kincaid back. It’s just that no game is a gimme except maybe the Jets, so i doubt it. Especially if we are one dimensional on offense. 

Anderson and Vandemark are solid players.  I would argue that either is at least as good as Dawkins at this point in their careers.  (Dawkins is overrated.  Has been his entire career.  Now it’s just more because he is fatter and slower)

 

We need Kincaid back.  He is the only true receiving weapon we have.  And he is good down the middle.  Maybe Cooks can help.  The rest look like they are in mud.  Although  it wouldn’t hurt to try and throw to Gabe Shavers and Coleman down the field some. 
And as long as we are paying Knox so much, send him down the field some too.  He seems to know how to get open, despite his marginal hands. 
 

No reason we can’t win out.  We just need guys especially on defense to elevate their games some like Benford did yesterday.  Defense has looked better of late.  More organized w lining up w Shaq Thompson calling the signals.  And the coaching staff needs to draw up solid game plans each week based on our opponent.  (Can’t do the same thing every week)
 

We just need to be better than our opponent each week.  (The NFL is a week to week league) And when Josh Allen is playing like he did yesterday, we are a tough out.  I never agreed w the posters who said we should limit his running.  The dude is a big man.  He can take and dish out the pounding.  He plays better that way. 

[SCBills]

4 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Anderson and Vandemark are solid players.  I would argue that either is at least as good as Dawkins at this point in their careers.  (Dawkins is overrated.  Has been his entire career.  Now it’s just more because he is fatter and slower)

 

We need Kincaid back.  He is the only true receiving weapon we have.  And he is good down the middle.  Maybe Cooks can help.  The rest look like they are in mud.  Although  it wouldn’t hurt to try and throw to Gabe Shavers and Coleman down the field some. 
And as long as we are paying Knox so much, send him down the field some too.  He seems to know how to get open, despite his marginal hands. 
 

No reason we can’t win out.  We just need guys especially on defense to elevate their games some like Benford did yesterday.  Defense has looked better of late.  More organized w lining up w Shaq Thompson calling the signals.  And the coaching staff needs to draw up solid game plans each week based on our opponent.  (Can’t do the same thing every week)
 

We just need to be better than our opponent each week.  (The NFL is a week to week league) And when Josh Allen is playing like he did yesterday, we are a tough out.  I never agreed w the posters who said we should limit his running.  The dude is a big man.  He can take and dish out the pounding.  He plays better that way. 

Bills would never, but outside the box thinking this offseason would be trading Dawkins for a 2nd, clear out a chunk of cap space to spend and bring back Van Demark as an RFA to play LT.  

[BritBill]

Can they? Yes. Will they? No.

[Warriorspikes51]

14 minutes ago, finn said:

Reasons for optimism: Allen, all three running backs, Cooks, Hawkes, offensive line, McDermott taking over as defensive coordinator, overall veteran moxie, Benford, Bosa, Hawkes, Gilman.

 

Reasons for pessimism: Milano, Poyer, Bernard, Brady, Coleman, another six Kincaid injuries forthcoming, decline/misuse of Shakir, Brady. (Did I mention Brady?)

 

Milano and Poyer have been pretty solid lately IMO 

[WNYFAN1]

This thread perfectly encapsulates 2BD:

 

Loss to Houston - Playoffs? Playoffs???

 

Win at Pittsburgh - Can we win out?

 

 

LOL

[ganesh]

We have 3 home games (Bengals, Eagles, Jets) and 2 road games (Browns, Patriots).  Our home record is fabulous especially in December. 

 

All five are winnable as long as Josh is our QB.   Go Bills !!!

1 hour ago, chris heff said:

This place is so predictable, I knew when I opened this thread it was going to piss me off. Can the Bills win out? Of course they can. We will find out, as someone once said, “it’s why you play the games”. Last week it was all about how the Bills had no chance, two backup tackles against the Steelers defense? Forget about it. I read how a one handed Rodgers was going to kill the Bills, or that it didn’t matter that the Steelers secondary is bad, you don’t need a secondary when you have a great defensive line. Well as it turned out the Steelers secondary didn’t matter, because two backup tackles, an injured center, two very good guards beat the snot out of the Steelers unstoppable defensive line. The one handed QB was broken and literally bleeding. “Oh, but what about the passing game?” You don’t need to pass when you’re running like that, not to mention 30mph gusts. The Bills are 8-4, there is about 30 seasons I can think of where I would have killed for 8-4 to start December.

One point to emphasize...While the tackles and the guards played very well, the running game had that success also because there was some significant blocking by the TEs, RBs and WRs...I think #14 was in the entire game blocking for the running game...and finally, the extra effort made by the RBs were amazing....I had not seen that kind of enthusiasm in previous games.

[Gregg]

My guess is 3-2 as a worst-case scenario and 4-1 as a best-case scenario. It will be hard to win out. So, I got the Bills at either 11-6 or 12-5. They will get in as a WC. What happens after that who knows.

[Sweats]

Sure, any team can win out.........it takes a special kind of talent to blow a sure-fire win in 13 seconds though.

 

Yes, i am still bitter.

 

Don't judge me.

[27yankees]

42 minutes ago, Chaos said:

The math does not make winning out seem likely. Lets aggressively assume the bills are 90% likely to win all the games except that Patriots game and the liklihood in the patriots game is 60% the Bills will win.

90% x 60% x 90% x 90% x 90% = 39% probability of winning out based on the agressive paramaters given.  

Then assuming we are  wild card in the playoffs, and it would take three road wins and a neutral site win to win the super bowl.  Even though the Bills road playoff history assumes we might not be favored in any road games, lets assume the bills have a 70% chance to win each of the four games. 

70% x 70% x 70% 70% = 24%.     

having to win three instead of four is such a huge advantage for the #1 seed. Add on the guarantee of playing the lowest remaing seed in the two playoff games, and the extra week rest and prep time, it is just gigantic.   In a year where no AFC team is standing out, the team that gets the #1 seed is probably the favorite to go to the super bowl. 

Desire/Heart is the unseen common denomanator in all mathimatical equations. You cannot put the will to win in any equation. 

[billsfan89]

Hard to see this team not dropping a game they should win also away against a solid Pats team and home against the Eagles aren't gimmies either. Bengals with Burrow back is suddenly not an easy game either. Overall, I think I am just focusing on one game at a time, just beat the Bengals and hope KC beats the Texans look to secure your playoff spot and then see how everything else works out.