The Bills won; where does the Bills rank in your book in terms of contending for superbowl now?

[hondo in seattle]

I'm heartened by the fact that it's not the case that the best team wins the SB every year.  If the best team always won, we wouldn't have a chance at a Lombardi because our D mostly sucks and our O is inconsistent. 

 

But football is a funny game and anything can happen in a best-of-one series.  Sometimes good teams have bad games.  Sometimes injuries, bad ref calls, weird bounces, and all the other fun possibilities of the game allow the weaker team to win. 

 

We're good enough to be in contention and maybe the Gridiron Gods will favor us with some breaks this year.  

[Aussie Joe]

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, we absolutely are.

 

More, it's hard to know whether that defense will be the one we go into the playoffs with. If Ed Oliver gets back and Shaq Thompson, and our younger guys continue developing, we could easily be a lot better.

 

 

i was under the  impression Oliver is not back until late January …big ask to expect much then after a long layoff…Shaq Thompson is probably an upgrade but he is average at best for the position 

 

[WideNine]

With them playing 2 rookies on the DL, and Bosa banged up only able to use one hand, that line is really suspect right now.

 

I was wondering why no one was sealing the edges only to learn that they were forced to use Sanders (a 3 tech) as a DE in the rotation. Explains why he looked lost attacking blocks and setting the edge...

 

Looks like we are going to have to outscore folks in a boat race for any real chance against the better teams out there.

 

That is assuming we can get past NE.

 

Like the ghost of bad Christmas past seeing that team arise out of the smoking ashes of what was left after the Belichick and Brady era ended.

 

 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

39 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Nothing has changed.

 

its all on Josh Allen’s shoulders.

 

When he is hitting the gas, the defense can suck and the team around him can suck and we can beat anybody and everybody. If he can string 4 of those games together, we will be Super Bowl Champions.

 

When we get less than that, or even more infrequently, a bad game, we can basically lose to anybody and exit early.

 

the same place we have been since 2020.

 

 

Yup,

 

And no other teams with great QBs are like that ... except all of them.

 

When the great QB has a bad game, yeah, the team's not real likely to win. That's kinda the NFL. 

 

I mean, you're right, that's how we look. But I mean, when Mahomes had a bad game, the Eagles win the Super Bowl last year and the AFC championship against the Bengals about three years ago.

 

 

9 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

 

i was under the  impression Oliver is not back until late January …big ask to expect much then after a long layoff…Shaq Thompson is probably an upgrade but he is average at best for the position 

 

 

 

Yeah, fair enough, big ask. But it could happen, Ed playing near how he did before. Or not. 

 

And no, Shaq was playing significantly better than average, he was playing well.

[Thurman#1]

16 hours ago, 26TrapDraw said:

Our defense has let us down 4 of the last 5 years. You can win without a good defense?

how did that work out for the Bills ?

 

This is easily the worst defense in that time period. Unless they have 180degree improvement stopping the run and getting off the field on 3rd down they have no shot.

 

 

Yes, you're correct, you can indeed win without a good defense.

 

How did it work out for the Bills? Not as well as it worked out for the Chiefs a couple of years and the, Rams etc. The fact that it worked out for some teams but not for the Bills -- well, it only proves that it didn't work out for the Bills.

 

And the Bills had really good defenses several of those years, actually. Some of those years they had serious waves of injuries around the playoffs, and other times they were good but not good enough to stop the Chiefs in the playoffs with Mahomes playing at absolutely historic levels.

 

You can argue this D is the worst. But they're getting better, particularly at passing defense. When Bosa gets the cast off, when and if Oliver comes back and when Dorian gets better at the role he's already playing pretty well this past week at pass rush schemes, we could easily get a lot better. When TJ and DaQuan get not just able to play but back at previous levels. It's a shame Hoecht is out, it really is. But there's every chance we'll be a lot better.

 

We were awful against Miami. But not so awful against Tampa and pretty dang solid against KC. 

 

They absolutely have a shot. That simply isn't a question. Again, Vegas has them as the third most likely winner. That's likely a bit optimistic. But not much. They're 7-3, and beating the good teams.

[26TrapDraw]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yes, you're correct, you can indeed win without a good defense.

 

How did it work out for the Bills? Not as well as it worked out for the Chiefs a couple of years and the, Rams etc. The fact that it worked out for some teams but not for the Bills -- well, it only proves that it didn't work out for the Bills.

 

And the Bills had really good defenses several of those years, actually. Some of those years they had serious waves of injuries around the playoffs, and other times they were good but not good enough to stop the Chiefs in the playoffs with Mahomes playing at absolutely historic levels.

 

You can argue this D is the worst. But they're getting better, particularly at passing defense. When Bosa gets the cast off, when and if Oliver comes back and when Dorian gets better at the role he's already playing pretty well this past week at pass rush schemes, we could easily get a lot better. When TJ and DaQuan get not just able to play but back at previous levels. It's a shame Hoecht is out, it really is. But there's every chance we'll be a lot better.

 

We were awful against Miami. But not so awful against Tampa and pretty dang solid against KC. 

 

They absolutely have a shot. That simply isn't a question. Again, Vegas has them as the third most likely winner. That's likely a bit optimistic. But not much. They're 7-3, and beating the good teams.

How do you figure that the defense wasn’t awful against the Bucs? They gave up 32 points and 202 yards on the ground.its week 12….getting better!?

if we didn’t have Superman pull another red cape performance out of his ass we would of lost. 
The point I was trying to make with my post is that Josh having to carry the load with Herculean efforts to win is complete bull crap.

he is not getting the help he needs to be a championship team period.

the reason we don’t have a championship is because of this front office and inept head coach. None of it is good enough.

 

We know Josh is good enough on his own but he needs a little help. If KC doesn’t make the playoffs I hope Josh sees this as his shot and continues to play other worldly.

besides Bills fans  hes the only one who deserves a championship more.

[H2o]

The defense is bad, but the NFL seems to be full of parity across the board. Look at the Bears. The Colts. The Broncos seem to be running away with the division. Philly looks average. The Bucs are still solid despite their laundry list of injuries. The Pats. The AFC North is wide open. The Rams, Seahawks, and 49ers are all solid. The Chiefs could miss the Playoffs altogether. It's a really weird year in the NFL. All it will take is clicking at the right time, and any of a number of teams could win the SB. 

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

And no other teams with great QBs are like that ... except all of them

No.

 

Josh Allen effectively has at least the same stats and efficiency metrics as Mahomes in the playoffs and Mahomes has 17 playoffs wins, while Josh has 7.

 

Josh has less margin of error than any of them.

[Casey D]

13 hours ago, streetkings01 said:

You must’ve been sleeping the last 2 weeks. That defense is historically bad against the run. This is the worst defense in the McDermott era. Our offense had a good passing day for the 2nd time in the last 6 games. We have too many questions to be considered a contender 

Well, l the bettors don't see it that way.  History matter I guess, as the Bills are 4th overall at +850 behind only the + 800 Chiefs.  Bills are favored to win the AFC title at +375.  Patriots are +1800 and +600 respectively, although they are heavy favorites to win division at -250.  Broncos are +1600 and +600 respectively.  What this tells me is the public perception is that all the AFC upstarts are not really that good, and that when crunch time comes they likely will fold.  But those are the odds, so take a stab at some of the new "good" teams in the AFC if your convictions are strong as betting against the Bills could be profitable. 

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yes, you're correct, you can indeed win without a good defense.

 

How did it work out for the Bills? Not as well as it worked out for the Chiefs a couple of years and the, Rams etc. The fact that it worked out for some teams but not for the Bills -- well, it only proves that it didn't work out for the Bills.

 

And the Bills had really good defenses several of those years, actually. Some of those years they had serious waves of injuries around the playoffs, and other times they were good but not good enough to stop the Chiefs in the playoffs with Mahomes playing at absolutely historic levels.

 

You can argue this D is the worst. But they're getting better, particularly at passing defense. When Bosa gets the cast off, when and if Oliver comes back and when Dorian gets better at the role he's already playing pretty well this past week at pass rush schemes, we could easily get a lot better. When TJ and DaQuan get not just able to play but back at previous levels. It's a shame Hoecht is out, it really is. But there's every chance we'll be a lot better.

 

We were awful against Miami. But not so awful against Tampa and pretty dang solid against KC. 

 

They absolutely have a shot. That simply isn't a question. Again, Vegas has them as the third most likely winner. That's likely a bit optimistic. But not much. They're 7-3, and beating the good teams.

As Josh said right after the comeback over the Ravens: "next time have a little faith."  Not much faith among many here, but what the heck, I understand after Miami.  But when the Bills play their game, they will be a tough out.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 11/16/2025 at 8:13 PM, PoundingDog said:

When they were 4-0, even though they did not play that well, you say to yourself that they were missing people and had not played up to their best. Full of hope as a legit Superbowl favorite in January.

 

Then the Patriots game happened, and we pushed it aside as a surprise from an upstart team. Deep down, you say we are going to get it back when we go to Foxborough.

 

The Falcons game to me is a sign that this team has serious flaws on defense and offense that we may not overcome like the Ravens game. But we had hopes for the PED guys to change the fortune on defense.

 

Then the 2nd Dolphins game, along with the out-of-season injuries on D. Everywhere I go, football fans were in shock, not just us Bills fans, in the sense that we REALLY could lose to anyone, to the worst teams. 

 

And that carried over to this game. I can honestly say I did not have confidence when the game went into the 4th quarter, that we got this.   

 

You can clearly see Josh is pressing. He's throwing into tight coverages more like he did in his earlier years in NFL. He's putting his body on the line more like he was 3 years ago.  It won't help his MVP cause and longitivity, but to me, it is necessary for this offense to succeed right now. I know Kincaid didn't dress today so we may see the offense to be able to go busting out in the air like this game, probably earlier than McDermott would've liked this season (i.e., not wait until the playoffs) when the running game is not working.

 

But defensively, I just don't think we have a championship caliber squad. Tampa is not some super lethal offense without their top running back and wide receiver. And we had trouble stopping them. It is just a bad combination of not bigger enough to stop people from running between the tackles and not fast enough to go side line to side line. It was a pain for me watching Bernard could not catchup to Mayfield on one of his 3rd conversions. I believe the LB corp is the weakest link of this D and there is no hope of improvement for guys behind them. 

 

What I'm afraid is that Josh and company will exhaust themselves to get into the playoffs and then simply burn out on a dud, like that Cincy playoff game, to someone in January.

To answer the title question. I’ve always said this. The Bills are a good enough where if they can get hot at the right time, they can win it all. Josh Allen is just too good. 

 

But this board will jump back on their throats if the Bills lose again. 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 11/17/2025 at 1:29 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

To me? In no particular order... Super Bowl teams:

 

Eagles 

Bills 

Rams

Chiefs

 

I understand records but I think it's one of those 4 teams hoisting the Lombardi 

Chiefs have looked horrendous ever since the Bills loss. With the Colts next week, they could fall below .500

 

 

Broncos, Chargers, and Colts are their hardest remaining games. I think they drop 2 out of those 3 which would put them at 10-7 by the end of the year. They would need to luck out with tie breakers and some upsets to snag a Wildcard. Possible upset alert for the Cowboys matchup who are in a similar situation fighting to make the postseason. 
 

Or they could go on a total hot streak like the Bills did in ‘23 and win out for a 12-5 record + 1 seed. You never really know, but I genuinely think they miss the playoffs. Ask me 3 weeks ago and i would’ve had a completely different opinion, but they’ve looked atrocious as of late. People think the Bills receivers suck, but the Chiefs are a different level of suck. Their best offensive skill player is a 40 year old TE who’s on the downside of his career.

 

 

[streetkings01]

2 hours ago, Casey D said:

Well, l the bettors don't see it that way.  History matter I guess, as the Bills are 4th overall at +850 behind only the + 800 Chiefs.  Bills are favored to win the AFC title at +375.  Patriots are +1800 and +600 respectively, although they are heavy favorites to win division at -250.  Broncos are +1600 and +600 respectively.  What this tells me is the public perception is that all the AFC upstarts are not really that good, and that when crunch time comes they likely will fold.  But those are the odds, so take a stab at some of the new "good" teams in the AFC if your convictions are strong as betting against the Bills could be profitable. 

As Josh said right after the comeback over the Ravens: "next time have a little faith."  Not much faith among many here, but what the heck, I understand after Miami.  But when the Bills play their game, they will be a tough out.

I don’t care about odds and favorites and all the mumbo jumbo! I’m going by what my eyes tell me and what my eyes tell me is our defense is broken and we can’t 100% say the passing game has been fixed! I can’t see how anyone would think after the Bucs game that all are problems have been solved…..that Dolphins game was just a week ago……that Falcons and Patriots games were not that long ago.

[billsfan714]

33 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Chiefs have looked horrendous ever since the Bills loss. With the Colts next week, they could fall below .500

 

 

Broncos, Chargers, and Colts are their hardest remaining games. I think they drop 2 out of those 3 which would put them at 10-7 by the end of the year. They would need to luck out with tie breakers and some upsets to snag a Wildcard. Possible upset alert for the Cowboys matchup who are in a similar situation fighting to make the postseason. 
 

Or they could go on a total hot streak like the Bills did in ‘23 and win out for a 12-5 record + 1 seed. You never really know, but I genuinely think they miss the playoffs. Ask me 3 weeks ago and i would’ve had a completely different opinion, but they’ve looked atrocious as of late. People think the Bills receivers suck, but the Chiefs are a different level of suck. Their best offensive skill player is a 40 year old TE who’s on the downside of his career.

 

 

I kind of find it funny when people act like Kelce is about shot.  He's 2nd in the league in TE receiving yards and is on pace for another 1,000 yard season.  He's also healthy.

[Casey D]

2 minutes ago, streetkings01 said:

I don’t care about odds and favorites and all the mumbo jumbo! I’m going by what my eyes tell me and what my eyes tell me is our defense is broken and we can’t 100% say the passing game has been fixed! I can’t see how anyone would think after the Bucs game that all are problems have been solved…..that Dolphins game was just a week ago……that Falcons and Patriots games were not that long ago.

But you focus on the Bills weaknesses and likely don't watch the other contenders' games as closely. No one says the Bills have "fixed" their run defense, it has sucked particularly in the last two games.  They have been OK at times.  But the point is that every team has problems.  The odds are what they are because we are grading on a curve here, not in absolute terms.  Maybe that is mumbo jumbo, but I don't think so.  You are having a recency bias, but the odds look at the bigger picture.   

[billsfan89]

I honestly I am not really scared of the AFC field even if the Bills have to be a wildcard and go on the road as the 5/6 seed. Yes the Bills have flaws but the Bills if they are lets say the 5 seed at 11-6 or 12-5 as long as they get a pseudo bye not playing starters in week 18 (gets them the chance to rest where many teams may not) then I don't really think there's any team they can't beat on the road. If this was the NFC then yeah I would be concerned as I think the Eagles/Rams/Seahawks would all present problems but these AFC teams don't scare me.

 

The AFC North winner is likely to be the 4 seed and The Steelers or Ravens (with Lamar banged up and their high level of injuries) don't really scare me. Then I look at The Colts/Pats/Broncos and I don't really think there's any game there the Bills can't win on the road either. Daniel Jones, Maye, and Nix have a combined 1 playoff win between them. Their teams are good don't get me wrong but neither one of those teams I look at and go oh that team is a big problem.

 

While I do have my concerns about this Bills defense and the WR's I also think if there's any team that can "turn it on" in the playoffs it is the Bills esp if the Bills get a weeks rest going into the final week. The Bills run defense is a concern and The Colts and others in the field can run the ball. But I also think the Bills are the veteran team that's saving their best for the playoffs and if the can get Ed back and rest everyone week 18 then I think this team has that extra gear they can turn into. 

 

Overall I think this team can't get too far ahead of its self just win on Thursday and get the mini-bye see where it shakes out from there. 

Edited 1 hour ago by billsfan89

[Virgil]

The needle hasn’t moved for me at all.  
 

We are looking at three straight road playoff games with a team that picks and chooses when it wants to show up.   
 

To me, it’s a matter of when and not if, we lay another egg 

[JoshAllin]

I wonder if their plan was to save this version of Josh for the playoffs while the run game and defense could hold up in the regular season. But after the phins they figured thats not happening and are gonna need him doing this every week instead of having him a little more fresh towards the end

[Gregg]

2 minutes ago, Virgil said:

The needle hasn’t moved for me at all.  
 

We are looking at three straight road playoff games with a team that picks and chooses when it wants to show up.   
 

To me, it’s a matter of when and not if, we lay another egg 

 

If they can win at Houston, then the division is still in play with NE at 9-2 and BUF 8-3.

[quincy]

The AFC recently has been a guaranteed one-team show, that team getting to the AFCCG seven years in a row. Recent history this decade shows that only three other teams have made it as far as the AFCCG - Baltimore, Buffalo and Cincinnatti. Shocker it is the quarterbacks, Mahomes, Jackson, Burrow and Allen. 

 

Are there going to be two upstart teams contesting the AFCCG, one newcomer and an established team, or will it be the old foes battling it out again? 

 

Of the established teams we are in the strongest position, in terms of wins, despite where we should be and what could have been. 

 

Cincinatti, virtually no chance at the playoffs, a rusty Burrow may not return this year, their D is really bad.  

Baltimore, Lamar currently looks hurt, Henry isn't playing at an All-Pro level but given their division (and the health of Rodgers), should make the playoffs. 

Kansas City, they need to keep winning and have some other results go their way. They might have to empty the tank/playbook to reach the playoffs this year.  

Buffalo, positive tiebreakers against KC and Baltimore with NE being a huge obstacle to the Division (bur still achievable).

 

Just concentrating on the AFC side, in terms of offensive playmakers, I'd take Josh Allen and James Cook over anyone. The best non-Josh quarterback in the AFC playoffs this year might be Drake Maye (assuming Lamar and Mahomes miss out). Daniel Jones versus Spags next week will be interesting. 

 

The ascending teams have chosen a good year to show their hands and fair play to them if any combination of Indianapolis, NE and Denver get to the AFCCG. It'd absolutely suck it they make it and we do note. The Chargers, Jaguars and Texans are established fringe contenders to me but I don't think they will make any noise should they be in the playoffs. 

 

Our D stinks at present, the only thing I think that can make it better is for them to be causing and recovering fumbles like last year and stopping giving up so many third down and long conversions. 

 

My November 18 gut feeling is that the last two teams standing are Baltimore and Buffalo. 

 

Both Josh and Lamar need to get to a Super Bowl badly and I believe one of them will this year and I 100% want it to be Josh and the Buffalo Bills.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

1 hour ago, billsfan714 said:

I kind of find it funny when people act like Kelce is about shot.  He's 2nd in the league in TE receiving yards and is on pace for another 1,000 yard season.  He's also healthy.

I grew up watching Kelce. Was a big fan of his before Mahomes was even drafted. He is no where near as dominant as 2018-2022. He’s been trending downward ever since. Of course he’s still going to put up numbers because there’s no one else and he’s a hall of fame player. You are just looking at the stats.